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Lord_Varys

2018 QB Rankings

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I couldn't find a thread for this yet.  I'm still trying to decide at what point it's worth drafting a QB early, or why the conventional wisdom of fantasy experts is always to wait on the position.

 

== Here are my rankings and tiers as of today in late June:

Tier 1: 1 Rodgers

Tier 2: 2 Wilson, 3 Brady, 4 Watson, 5 Wentz, 6 Brees, 7 Newton

Tier 3: 8 Stafford, 9 Rivers, 10 Cousins, 11 Jimmy G, 12 Ben, 13 Luck, 14 Mahomes

Tier 4: 15 Ryan, 16 Goff, 17 Mariota, 18 Smith, 19 Dak, 20 Trubisky,

Tier 5: 21 Carr, 22 Manning, 23 Bortles, 24 Dalton, 25 Keenum

 

== Some analysis:

> On late round QBs

- Rivers has finished as a top 12 QB each of the last 5 years.   Maybe more -- I just stopped counting after 5.  His offense is loaded this year too.  

- There's always 1 or 2 late round QB that bursts into the top 5.  2017: Wentz/Watson, 16: Matt Ryan, 2015: Bortles/Eli.  I like Mahomes and Jimmy this year.

> On early round QBs

- Here are Aaron Rodgers TD totals the last 5 seasons he's played a full 16 games: 40, 31, 38, 39, 45 (in 15 games).  He's been between 3800 and 4600 yards each of those years.

- Here is  the output from some of the Tier 3 guys who you are realistically "waiting on" from the past few years (starting with 2017 and working back in time)

  Stafford: 4400/29, 4300/24, 4200/32, 4200/22

  Rivers: 4500/28, 4400/33, 4800/29, 4300/31

  Cousins: 4100/27, 4900/25, 4100/29

  Jimmy G: n/a

   Ben: Rarely ever plays 16 games, but had one season with 4900 and 32 the last time he did.

- Rodgers will give you 300-400 rush yards and 1-4 rush TDs per year. 

- Those tier 3 QBs will give you basically nothing.  Call it 100 and 0 and that's generous.

- Projecting Rodgers for 350/2 rushing, and 4300/38 + 8 int passing this year; and projecting Rivers for 50 rushing and 4400/28 + 14 int passing ...

     Rodgers = 22.1 points per game standard.   26.8 in 6 pt per pass TD leagues.

     Rivers = 16.3 points per game.  19.8 in 6 pt per pass TD leagues

- That's a 5.8 point per game difference between a healthy  Rodgers and a perennial QB1 in standard formats.

- That's 7 points per game in a 6 point per pass TD format.

- The change in scoring format appears good for a little more than 1 point per game.  Not a ton, but not bad either.

 

Those 6 points over replacement look like a lot, but it's a 2nd or 3rd round Rodgers vs an 8th or 9th round Rivers.  Call it 6 rounds of separation.

If you wait 6 rounds to take a running back, you'll probably lose more than 6 points.

If you wait 6 rounds to take a wide receiver, however, well...  

The difference between a late 2nd round Evans and an 8th round Marquise Goodwin is going to be a LOT less than 6 points per game.  Evans had 132 standard points last year.  I think everyone expects a bounce back, but even Julio only had 163 standard points last year, good for a WR6 overall finish (again, in standard leagues).  160 points would be reasonable yet hopeful for Evans this year, only 10 points per game.  You can wait until round 8 and replace that with a Goodwin or Stills or Anderson and there's no chance outside of injury that they fail to eclipse 4 points per game, which is all they would need to make your decision to take Rodgers worth it.

 

In short, give me Rodgers in 2 and Goodwin in 8 over Evans in 2 and Rivers in 8.  Assuming all are healthy.

 

I'm not saying that you SHOULD take Rodgers late in the 2nd round.

   Maybe you take Jimmy or Mahomes late and they become top 5 QBs, though.  Well good on you, and good luck picking the right one.

   Maybe you stream and play matchups.  You close the gap, but your'e still not touching Rodgers TD output.

I'm just presenting some facts to show, in standard league formats, how dominant Rodgers really is.  It's hard to find even a mid-tier QB who's going to go far past 30 TDs.  Rodgers could throw 45 and it'd surprise no one.  He's in a tier of his own.

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Obviously another guy to watch is Luck.  His ADP may creep up into the Watson/Wentz tier but if his arm's right then he could tear it up in Reich's offense.  

 

Finding that mid-late round QB that gets into the top 5 is one of the biggest advantages in this game.

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34 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Rodgers could throw 45 and it'd surprise no one.  He's in a tier of his own.

 

Agree 100% on Rodgers.

 

Some alternative takes regarding other QBs / tiers.

 

Brees without a doubt has the talent to be ranked high, has the talent to end the year in the top 2 QBs, yet the changes we saw last year in New Orleans may (should) roll over into this season; the development of a solid rushing attack has reduced Brees' numbers significantly (least attempts since 2009, less yards since 2005, least amount of TDs since 2003). Will Ingram's suspension have Brees throwing more? Probably not significantly. If the o-line plays well, if Kamara (and then Ingram) pound well, if the offense shows elements of clock control utilizing the rushing attack, paying top dollar for Brees will not be economical.

 

I see the addendum added for Luck, and here it's somewhat guesswork (regarding health), yet I'd imagine that Luck does return and that his limitations are not significant. With this in mind, Luck is another QB who can end the season in the top 2 (I'd up Luck a notch). I'd be more cautious with Wentz, however, and see Wentz as dropping down a notch, this based on health, not skill, and not offensive prowess. Preseason will tell more, however if Wentz does not begin the season in September it would not be a huge surprise.

 

Based on what we saw from Watson last season, it looks like he can land at the top as well. For me, the sample size is too small to invest significant capital, but I agree that his performance is worthy of a Tier 2 ranking. How could it not be. But JimmyG---also with a small sample size---is a question mark. JG's hype has him rising, and people speak of a new era in SF, but I'd suggest tempering expectations for a QB who's only completed 183 passes in four years. With hype in mind, Alex Smith should be hyped but is not, and he earned an upgrade last year but does not get the respect he deserves from pretty much everyone. Same might be said of Keenum and possibly Goff, as both played well. Tyrod Taylor is conspicuously un-tiered, and I wonder if TT's that later-round QB who will jump into the spotlight as he fights off Mayfield and fights for his job every single weekend, now surrounded by the best talent he's every worked with...

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I hope Carr stays that low as I will be able to pick him up for cheap.  I think he has a big bounce back year.

 

Lots of QB options this year. While I'd love to have a Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz (if 100%) I'm likely going to wait with how deep the QB is this year.  Moreover with so many options and depth you can stream QBs each week.  Did it last year with great success and likely do it again this year.

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8 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

I hope Carr stays that low as I will be able to pick him up for cheap.  I think he has a big bounce back year.

 

Lots of QB options this year. While I'd love to have a Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz (if 100%) I'm likely going to wait with how deep the QB is this year.  Moreover with so many options and depth you can stream QBs each week.  Did it last year with great success and likely do it again this year.

 

This is exactly why I will never draft a QB in the first 3 rounds.  I prefer to wait until about the 6th round before I start considering it.

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Unless a top qb falls I'm waiting that way I can easily move on or stream if need be. 4 for 4 last year did a weekly qb stream iirc there top pick would have been 2nd best qb throughout the year and the average of their 3 qb streams for the week finished top 12, I believe it was less then 40% owned so you cant count on that but its a good start. Im out or id look it up.

 

Interests of myne all 13th or lower currently at fantasy pros.

 

Luck has a new oc has tue pedigree and they drafted oline rnd 1 and 2 and signed a 3rd, Ebron may also be dangerous.

 

Ryan 2 years removed from a MVP season and entering year 2 of the post Kyle Shanahan offense.

 

Mahomes injuries or Mahomes himself is only thing stopping this offense from being elite.

 

Mariota new oc Matt Ryan's qb coach in his mvp season and was offensive coordinator last year for the Rams juggernaut although did not call the plays.

 

Carr, Gruden plus these weapons Cooper, Nelson, MBryant and JCook has me very interested.

 

Obviously a lot can change but as of now I plan on targeting this group unless a higher ranked QB should fall quite a bit.

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22 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Unless a top qb falls I'm waiting that way I can easily move on or stream if need be. 4 for 4 last year did a weekly qb stream iirc there top pick would have been 2nd best qb throughout the year and the average of their 3 qb streams for the week finished top 12, I believe it was less then 40% owned so you cant count on that but its a good start. Im out or id look it up.

 

Interests of myne all 13th or lower currently at fantasy pros.

 

Luck has a new oc has tue pedigree and they drafted oline rnd 1 and 2 and signed a 3rd, Ebron may also be dangerous.

 

Ryan 2 years removed from a MVP season and entering year 2 of the post Kyle Shanahan offense.

 

Mahomes injuries or Mahomes himself is only thing stopping this offense from being elite.

 

Mariota new oc Matt Ryan's qb coach in his mvp season and was offensive coordinator last year for the Rams juggernaut although did not call the plays.

 

Carr, Gruden plus these weapons Cooper, Nelson, MBryant and JCook has me very interested.

 

Obviously a lot can change but as of now I plan on targeting this group unless a higher ranked QB should fall quite a bit.

 

4 for 4 top stream averaged 23.9 fppg in weeks 1-16 last year good for 1st, and the average of the 3 chosen each week 16.9 over 16 weeks would have been 7th best TOTAL among QB's. In 2016 the top streamer finished averaging 21.2 fppg good for 10th, 2015 the top streamer finished with 16.6 fppg it doesn't say where that placed but would assume not top 12 and in the 1st year they did it in 2014 22.4 fppg good for 4th.

 

PS- Confirming that 40% owned or less is the criteria.

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5 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

Tyrod Taylor is conspicuously un-tiered, and I wonder if TT's that later-round QB who will jump into the spotlight as he fights off Mayfield and fights for his job every single weekend, now surrounded by the best talent he's every worked with...

 

This thinking is not without parallel.

 

With an experienced game manager already rostered, KC made Mahomes a 1st round selection, and promptly sat him his rookie year.  Smith did quite fine, and he ended up a valuable trade chip.

 

Sure Mahomes wasn't selected #1 overall, but Mayfield is no closer to NFL ready than Mahomes was, and Taylor's TD/pick ratio and elite legs suggest that he is capable of operating an offense now loaded with talent just fine.  If he just does what he's been doing his entire career (he'll likely do better), odds are good the Browns will win games and Taylor will keep Mayfield comfortably marinating.  Dorsey won't mind building Taylor's credibility, and hence trade value, for a season.

 

I don't see any better freebies than Taylor.

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1 minute ago, dogfightgiggle said:

If Golladay is a player, does Stafford crack the top 5?

 

Maybe, but you wouldn't draft him top 5. Not above Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Watson, Cam, Wentz.

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Just wait and take the perennially most underrated player in all of fantasy sports, Phillip Rivers.

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8 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

I couldn't find a thread for this yet.  I'm still trying to decide at what point it's worth drafting a QB early, or why the conventional wisdom of fantasy experts is always to wait on the position.

 

== Here are my rankings and tiers as of today in late June:

Tier 1: 1 Rodgers

Tier 2: 2 Wilson, 3 Brady, 4 Watson, 5 Wentz, 6 Brees, 7 Newton

Only thing I can't agree with.  He really slowed down for the last 5 games last season and now he doesn't have Cooks.   they obviously want to run the ball drafting a RB in the first round.

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20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Only thing I can't agree with.  He really slowed down for the last 5 games last season and now he doesn't have Cooks.   they obviously want to run the ball drafting a RB in the first round.

 

Its the Patriots. Its Josh McDaniels. They are going to throw the ball. 

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1 hour ago, Saucy said:

 

Maybe, but you wouldn't draft him top 5. Not above Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Watson, Cam, Wentz.

 

Anyone who drafts Wentz at this point, when the jury is still out regarding his health / recovery, is taking a huge risk. 

 

Wentz may have the upside, but Stafford and Rivers have the stability and are assured to play Week 1.

 

1 hour ago, dogfightgiggle said:

If Golladay is a player, does Stafford crack the top 5?

 

I’d suggest that Stafford will not be dependent on Golladay’s breakout, though the sophomore did flash talent last season.

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1 hour ago, Saucy said:

 

Its the Patriots. Its Josh McDaniels. They are going to throw the ball. 

Great analysis.  That still doesn't mean he's worthy of being the #3 QB off the board.  He was 6th in points per game last season with Brandin Cooks and Amendola on the team.  Edelman is possibly suspended for 4 games.  They no longer have their starting LT.  He's now 41 years old.  The drop off is coming, it's only a matter of time.  I don't want to own him when it happens.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Great analysis.  That still doesn't mean he's worthy of being the #3 QB off the board.  He was 6th in points per game last season with Brandin Cooks and Amendola on the team.  Edelman is possibly suspended for 4 games.  They no longer have their starting LT.  He's now 41 years old.  The drop off is coming, it's only a matter of time.  I don't want to own him when it happens.

 

You can't bring up the Edelman suspension as a reason for a significant drop off; Edelman was out all of last year. He's not losing anything there. My point is it has always been a revolving door of talent around TB12, and he always produces. Maybe he wont finish inside the top 3 or anything, but He's about as safe as you can get in that second tier.

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2 hours ago, Saucy said:

 

You can't bring up the Edelman suspension as a reason for a significant drop off; Edelman was out all of last year. He's not losing anything there. My point is it has always been a revolving door of talent around TB12, and he always produces. Maybe he wont finish inside the top 3 or anything, but He's about as safe as you can get in that second tier.

Last year they had Amendola to step in for Edelman though.

 

I would argue that Tom Brady is the least safe in the 2nd tier because of his age.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Last year they had Amendola to step in for Edelman though.

 

I would argue that Tom Brady is the least safe in the 2nd tier because of his age.

 

I’d wager Jordan Matthews is an upgrade from Amendola, though he’s invisible in drafting. 

 

Regarding age, he’s been healthier than QBs almost half his age. I agree that Brady’s time is coming, that it has to at some point, but all of those alkaline foods and supermodel bjobs and guru chakra sessions and soft tissue workouts seems to be working very very well.

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5 hours ago, Saucy said:

Just wait and take the perennially most underrated player in all of fantasy sports, Phillip Rivers.

 

If you're going to wait on QB, why wait for someone with such minimal upside?

In a 12 team league, when waiting on QB, it's because you subscribe to the theory that the QBs ranked from 4-14 are all just as likely as eachother to finish in any random order on the year and/or the week.  Your goal is then to pick the one you think has the best chance to at least finish top half of that group.  Using this group of 14 QBs, you want to finish top 7 in any given week as often as possible.

 

Phillip Rivers accomplished this feat just once in all of 2017 despite having Gates, Henry, and a career year from K.Allen.  Gates is gone, Henry is injured, and whether Keenan can repeat/exceed/even stay on the field is to be seen.

 

Of the 15 games he played in the fantasy season, he had 0 or 1 TDs in 7 of them.

He scored 2 TDs in 5 of them.

3 TDs in the remaining 3.

 

He broke the arbitrary 20 point mark just 3 times all season.

 

2017 wasn't a down year either.  He's scored this many fantasy points 9 out of the last 10 years. (1 bad year with only ~220)

 

If I'm waiting on QB, I'm chasing upside.  Not grabbing some scrub who can reliably be a scrub for 15 weeks.

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1.  Deshaun Watson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Everyone else.

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7 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

This thinking is not without parallel.

 

With an experienced game manager already rostered, KC made Mahomes a 1st round selection, and promptly sat him his rookie year.  Smith did quite fine, and he ended up a valuable trade chip.

 

Sure Mahomes wasn't selected #1 overall, but Mayfield is no closer to NFL ready than Mahomes was, and Taylor's TD/pick ratio and elite legs suggest that he is capable of operating an offense now loaded with talent just fine.  If he just does what he's been doing his entire career (he'll likely do better), odds are good the Browns will win games and Taylor will keep Mayfield comfortably marinating.  Dorsey won't mind building Taylor's credibility, and hence trade value, for a season.

 

I don't see any better freebies than Taylor.

Taylor also can win games by himself, which could save Hues job. The only worry there is the first two games are rough, but after that a very winnable stretch. 

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If I wait on QB and/or plan on streaming then I am going to be targeting Jameis Winston late. With his 3 game suspension looming, you can get him for free. The Bucs have a very favorable schedule for passing offense from week 4 on. I’m not saying he’s going to be a top 5 guy or anything, but leaving him out of the top 25 QB rankings is ridiculous.

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9 hours ago, Dislimb said:

If I wait on QB and/or plan on streaming then I am going to be targeting Jameis Winston late. With his 3 game suspension looming, you can get him for free. The Bucs have a very favorable schedule for passing offense from week 4 on. I’m not saying he’s going to be a top 5 guy or anything, but leaving him out of the top 25 QB rankings is ridiculous.

 

I've been taking Winston the last two years on teams because he's always offered that upside at a late pick.  It has never paid off and he has never finished on my roster at the end of the year.  I will not be drafting him on any teams this year and expect to be able to grab him off waivers if need be.  He's been a huge disappointment for me.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I've been taking Winston the last two years on teams because he's always offered that upside at a late pick.  It has never paid off and he has never finished on my roster at the end of the year.  I will not be drafting him on any teams this year and expect to be able to grab him off waivers if need be.  He's been a huge disappointment for me.

 

Ah yes, classic scenario. The gods of fantasy football will be sure to make Jameis the overall QB1 on someone else’s team this year just to spite you. 

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1 minute ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

Ah yes, classic scenario. The gods of fantasy football will be sure to make Jameis the overall QB1 on someone else’s team this year just to spite you. 

 

That's going to be one impressive season to be the QB after missing 3 games.  Like I said, he'll most likely be available on waivers so I may still have him on my roster at some point, I just won't be drafting him.

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