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Luka Dončić 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Just now, Simsanityy179 said:

Don't look at total value , he's currently ranked 82nd in per game value which isn't good.

 

hes 66th in total value , which isn't impressive considering players like aminu and vonleh are also top 70

No one cares. He has been playing like an early rounder.  His only negatives are ft% and turnovers. Hes beast in counting stats 3s and solid steals. If you think that his actual value to owners is similar to scrubs like vonleh and aminu this must be your first year in fantasy. Westbrook is often ranked like 30th because of percentages and turnovers but he is always drafted first round. I would not trade luka for anything less than a real monster pg like kyrie lillard jrue etc. 

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8 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Don't look at total value , he's currently ranked 82nd in per game value which isn't good.

 

hes 66th in total value , which isn't impressive considering players like aminu and vonleh are also top 70

In 8 cat roto he is 46th per game value, which is good. He is with "-" value only in the pctgs cats. In 9 cat roto is outside top 75, so for now Luka`s value will depend on the league settings. Keep walking, Luka! 

Edited by montanski

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9 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Don't look at total value , he's currently ranked 82nd in per game value which isn't good.

 

hes 66th in total value , which isn't impressive considering players like aminu and vonleh are also top 70

 

7 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Selling doncic for a top 50 (per game) such as Otto porter is not a difficult task 

 

Jesus.  I wouldn’t trade Luca for Porter, Aminu and Vonleh combined. Another case regarding some players were the ranking is a joke.  Vonleh and Aminu are deep league assets and Otto is as inconsistent as they come where his true value is in 3s and turnovers which is trash. You sound like a noob, embarrassing. 

Edited by chud12
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22 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Selling doncic for a top 50 (per game) such as Otto porter is not a difficult task 

Omg brain freeze. 😳 Oh oh omg it hurts 😂

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22 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

 

Jesus.  I wouldn’t trade Luca for Porter, Aminu and Vonleh combined. Another case regarding some players were the ranking is a joke.  Vonleh and Aminu are deep league assets and Otto is as inconsistent as they come where his true value is in 3s and turnovers which is trash. You sound like a noob, embarrassing. 

Explain to me how Otto porter isn't a clear better asset than doncic this year for the ros , you can't just ignore his ft% like it's not a category ( unless you're tanking ) 

 

otto is set for top 35 value ros, doncic will not crack the top 50

 

yes doncic is more valuable if u can absorb his ft or turnover hit , but you can't say the computer rankings are dumb when it's a accurate calculation of all 9 categories. 

 

Im far from a noob , just understand the difference in value from higher to lower usage players, and know how to value a players total 9 cat line.

 

final note doncic is the worse 20-5-5 player for 9 cat purposes due to all the other 6 cats. 

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3 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Explain to me how Otto porter isn't a clear better asset than doncic this year for the ros , you can't just ignore his ft% like it's not a category ( unless you're tanking ) 

 

otto is set for top 35 value ros, doncic will not crack the top 50

 

yes doncic is more valuable if u can absorb his ft or turnover hit , but you can't say the computer rankings are dumb when it's a accurate calculation of all 9 categories. 

 

Im far from a noob , just understand the difference in value from higher to lower usage players, and know how to value a players total 9 cat line.

 

final note doncic is the worse 20-5-5 player for 9 cat purposes due to all the other 6 cats. 

you are a complete noob. i used to think like you in my first year in fantasy. all teams have multiple players that shoot below 80% in ft so his 73% ft does nothing, barely feel it. turnovers are also incredibly common among high usage players that put up the most counting stats. it hurts my head even responding to this. just look up the game logs of doncic compared to otto porter. look how otto has a dud every 3rd game and puts up hardly any counting stats and then look at how doncic almost every game goes for at least 18 5 and 5 with lots of 3s. lmao otto porter has very little impact on a team overall on a weekly basis whereas doncic can help swing your counting stats. i would also not trade doncic for otto porter, aminu, and whatever other scrub i forgot you mentioned combined. they are all also susceptible to lineup changes and sucking and doing nothing whereas doncic runs the show every night. you know nothing about fantasy. just look at the reactions to your posts 

Edited by richg24
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33 minutes ago, richg24 said:

you are a complete noob. i used to think like you in my first year in fantasy. all teams have multiple players that shoot below 80% in ft so his 73% ft does nothing, barely feel it. turnovers are also incredibly common among high usage players that put up the most counting stats. it hurts my head even responding to this. just look up the game logs of doncic compared to otto porter. look how otto has a dud every 3rd game and puts up hardly any counting stats and then look at how doncic almost every game goes for at least 18 5 and 5 with lots of 3s. lmao otto porter has very little impact on a team overall on a weekly basis whereas doncic can help swing your counting stats. i would also not trade doncic for otto porter, aminu, and whatever other scrub i forgot you mentioned combined. they are all also susceptible to lineup changes and sucking and doing nothing whereas doncic runs the show every night. you know nothing about fantasy. just look at the reactions to your posts 

It depends on you're league , I'm in leagues where the best teams have 85%ft , high stocks , low turnovers so having porter is better than doncic. Notice that when I say porter I'm not basing his production on his game log or production this season. I'm basing it on what he's going to do for the rest of the season which is early round value. You could have all the points , assists , 3s you want. But I'll simply counter you with a low usage tank point build. Calling me a nube lol

 

Edited by Simsanityy179

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31 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

It depends on you're league , I'm in leagues where the best teams have 85%ft , high stocks , low turnovers so having porter is better than doncic. Notice that when I say porter I'm not basing his production on his game log or production this season. I'm basing it on what he's going to do for the rest of the season which is early round value. You could have all the points , assists , 3s you want. But I'll simply counter you with a low usage tank point build. Calling me a nube lol

 

So would you rather build a roster around Potto than a Westbrook, Drummond, Simmons type player? All of which have certain flaws. 

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And stop

12 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

So would you rather build a roster around Potto than a Westbrook, Drummond, Simmons type player? All of which have certain flaws. 

Porter could be drafted in the 4th round , I would never draft Westbrook , Drummond , Simmons first 3

 

i would rather go towns , kyrie , beal. Wouldn't mind having Otto 4th assuming he returns top 35 value ros

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5 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

It depends on you're league , I'm in leagues where the best teams have 85%ft , high stocks , low turnovers so having porter is better than doncic. Notice that when I say porter I'm not basing his production on his game log or production this season. I'm basing it on what he's going to do for the rest of the season which is early round value. You could have all the points , assists , 3s you want. But I'll simply counter you with a low usage tank point build. Calling me a nube lol

 

Even in roto if you have too many players of an otto porter mould you will get destroyed in counting stats. Compare the pts rebs assists and 3s totals of doncic and porter for me and post them in here. Check the difference and you can laugh at yourself. You must be playing roto with your mindset but even still it's completely the wrong approach. You must also think all rhe punt ft guys are worthless as well lol

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5 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

And stop

Porter could be drafted in the 4th round , I would never draft Westbrook , Drummond , Simmons first 3

 

i would rather go towns , kyrie , beal. Wouldn't mind having Otto 4th assuming he returns top 35 value ros

Ok I took it a tad too far. But you have to admit these views will rile the family up.  Just outta curiosity however.  Next year what round are you grabbing Potto compared to Luka? 

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1 hour ago, Bugs bunny said:

Ok I took it a tad too far. But you have to admit these views will rile the family up.  Just outta curiosity however.  Next year what round are you grabbing Potto compared to Luka? 

Next year I'd still take Otto in the 32-38 range.

 

doncic I see myself targeting around 50-60 depending On his ft% ( which is concerning until proven otherwise ) right after the likes of Jamal Murray , Gary Harris , or josh richardson assuming they hover at around a 50adp next year

 

im not a doncic hater , I just think he's overrated for 9cat purposes right now. I fully believe he will emerge as a top 20 asset by year 4

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2 hours ago, richg24 said:

Even in roto if you have too many players of an otto porter mould you will get destroyed in counting stats. Compare the pts rebs assists and 3s totals of doncic and porter for me and post them in here. Check the difference and you can laugh at yourself. You must be playing roto with your mindset but even still it's completely the wrong approach. You must also think all rhe punt ft guys are worthless as well lol

Again you keep talking about ottos porters totals without stating he's been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy , and missed over 10 games yet all signs are pointing for him to provide early round value ros. And no you don't get killed on the counting stats by drafting Otto. Ppg aside he's adds rebounds 3s and steals while giving u elite turnovers which is a counting stat. You don't fill your team with players like Otto , he's a glue piece. I do think tank ft players have great value just wouldn't have more than 2 on my team so I can still win that category.

 

yes I am talking about roto not points formats where a player like Otto is garbage compared to doncic.

 

A player like doncic would single handly make me loose ft% and turnovers any given week since I have elite low usage ft% , and the fact that the other top teams in my league hover around 85%. It's all about roster construction and countering the other top teams in your league 

 

have the final say I don't want to keep spamming this forum , I've said my piece 

 

 

Edited by Simsanityy179

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4 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Again you keep talking about ottos porters totals without stating he's been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy , and missed over 10 games yet all signs are pointing for him to provide early round value ros. And no you don't get killed on the counting stats by drafting Otto. Ppg aside he's adds rebounds 3s and steals while giving u elite turnovers which is a counting stat. You don't fill your team with players like Otto , he's a glue piece. I do think tank ft players have great value just wouldn't have more than 2 on my team so I can still win that category.

 

yes I am talking about roto not points formats where a player like Otto is garbage compared to doncic.

 

A player like doncic would single handly make me loose ft% and turnovers any given week since I have elite low usage ft% , and the fact that the other top teams in my league hover around 85%. It's all about roster construction and countering the other top teams in your league 

 

have the final say I don't want to keep spamming this forum , I've said my piece 

 

 

Trust me i fully understand what you are saying. You like to build an efficient team strong in fg and ft% and 3s steals and blocks and turnovers hoping to beat the volume teams that will beat you in points rebs assists etc. The problem is that if you lose one of the percentages your chance to win is badly hurt and if you lose both percentages or one percentage and fluke lose turnovers you are done again. I am talking h2h now because roto to me is a joke. No skill its just drafting a balanced team based on math and numbers. H2h takes team building, have to counter other teams like you mentioned, have to adapt on a week to week basis, etc. If i played roto i would have won the championship in my league 5 out of the last 8 years but in actuallity i have never won (finish first often then have poor luck in playoffs).

 

Back to luka discussion - in your last post you mentioned j rich who iove and own as well. I would easily give you him for doncic in h2h. This is because doncic is very consistent and j rich is super erratic. He gives you duds he gives huge lines you never know whats coming. 

 

I have never seen the efficient punting points type style strategy win a h2h league but you already said you are playing roto which makes sense. Anyway, i hope you understand that doncic will rightly be drafted far ahead of guys like otto porter. Look how bad otto was when washington had all their guys. He is the type of player dependent on other things to succeed and his value can be erased on another team or if someone is brought in. You have to take this stuff into account in value. You know doncic from now until he leaves the mavs is the alpha dog and can do whatever he wants. Matchup proof and surrounding player proof. You need players like this, otto yes is a glue piece but you just said you would draft a glue piece in the 3rd round which is an easy way to lose. 

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25 minutes ago, richg24 said:

Trust me i fully understand what you are saying. You like to build an efficient team strong in fg and ft% and 3s steals and blocks and turnovers hoping to beat the volume teams that will beat you in points rebs assists etc. The problem is that if you lose one of the percentages your chance to win is badly hurt and if you lose both percentages or one percentage and fluke lose turnovers you are done again. I am talking h2h now because roto to me is a joke. No skill its just drafting a balanced team based on math and numbers. H2h takes team building, have to counter other teams like you mentioned, have to adapt on a week to week basis, etc. If i played roto i would have won the championship in my league 5 out of the last 8 years but in actuallity i have never won (finish first often then have poor luck in playoffs).

 

Back to luka discussion - in your last post you mentioned j rich who iove and own as well. I would easily give you him for doncic in h2h. This is because doncic is very consistent and j rich is super erratic. He gives you duds he gives huge lines you never know whats coming. 

 

I have never seen the efficient punting points type style strategy win a h2h league but you already said you are playing roto which makes sense. Anyway, i hope you understand that doncic will rightly be drafted far ahead of guys like otto porter. Look how bad otto was when washington had all their guys. He is the type of player dependent on other things to succeed and his value can be erased on another team or if someone is brought in. You have to take this stuff into account in value. You know doncic from now until he leaves the mavs is the alpha dog and can do whatever he wants. Matchup proof and surrounding player proof. You need players like this, otto yes is a glue piece but you just said you would draft a glue piece in the 3rd round which is an easy way to lose. 

Looks very easy on paper, right? But sometimes it`s easier to say something, than to do it. Because you don`t have the numbers - nobody knows how some player will produce the whole season and how exactly will fit on your team. The projections are for amateurs or rookies, because they are more and more wrong every year. So, it`s not that easy, that you think. Everyone thinks his preffered league settings are the most difficult, but the truth is, every type has his +s and -s, his strengths and his flaws.

 

For Doncic and Otto - i own them both. Traded Glassy Harris (before first injury), Dinwiddie and WCJ for Luka, picked Otto from the waivers (in his early struggles). In 8 cat (which i play) there is no way to even compare this guys. Luka is on another galaxy for Otto. However the truth is that in 9cat Otto maybe has better outlook than Luka ROS, because of the injuries in Wiz squad and because Otto is very valuable in 9cat for the low TOs. But that is far for sure thing, because Luka has a coach behind him and Otto is headed to the bench, maybe permanently, to make place in the starting 5 for the defensive monster Jeff "Brooks` lover" Green.

 

I got your point for the alpha dog type of player, who all of us serach in the early rounds and i 100% agree, but he has some good point, too. In the end, i will draft Luka instead of Otto in any settings, in any cats and the reason is very simple - potential. If that`s the floor for Luka (obviously it is) - the limit is the sky. On the other hand, Otto is known like 3rd best player on playoff team and if he is 2nd or even 1st option on his team (that team will be tanking team, obviously), the %s will drop, the TOs will rise and he will lose that value, that he has now. He can`t outproduce Luka in the other cats and will be far behind him again, even in 9 cat.

 

By the way, Luka and Otto are the most appropriate example for the difference between values of same players in different league settings - 8 and 9 cat roto.

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48 minutes ago, montanski said:

Looks very easy on paper, right? But sometimes it`s easier to say something, than to do it. Because you don`t have the numbers - nobody knows how some player will produce the whole season and how exactly will fit on your team. The projections are for amateurs or rookies, because they are more and more wrong every year. So, it`s not that easy, that you think. Everyone thinks his preffered league settings are the most difficult, but the truth is, every type has his +s and -s, his strengths and his flaws.

 

For Doncic and Otto - i own them both. Traded Glassy Harris (before first injury), Dinwiddie and WCJ for Luka, picked Otto from the waivers (in his early struggles). In 8 cat (which i play) there is no way to even compare this guys. Luka is on another galaxy for Otto. However the truth is that in 9cat Otto maybe has better outlook than Luka ROS, because of the injuries in Wiz squad and because Otto is very valuable in 9cat for the low TOs. But that is far for sure thing, because Luka has a coach behind him and Otto is headed to the bench, maybe permanently, to make place in the starting 5 for the defensive monster Jeff "Brooks` lover" Green.

 

I got your point for the alpha dog type of player, who all of us serach in the early rounds and i 100% agree, but he has some good point, too. In the end, i will draft Luka instead of Otto in any settings, in any cats and the reason is very simple - potential. If that`s the floor for Luka (obviously it is) - the limit is the sky. On the other hand, Otto is known like 3rd best player on playoff team and if he is 2nd or even 1st option on his team (that team will be tanking team, obviously), the %s will drop, the TOs will rise and he will lose that value, that he has now. He can`t outproduce Luka in the other cats and will be far behind him again, even in 9 cat.

 

By the way, Luka and Otto are the most appropriate example for the difference between values of same players in different league settings - 8 and 9 cat roto.

 THIS...

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59 minutes ago, montanski said:

Looks very easy on paper, right? But sometimes it`s easier to say something, than to do it. Because you don`t have the numbers - nobody knows how some player will produce the whole season and how exactly will fit on your team. The projections are for amateurs or rookies, because they are more and more wrong every year. So, it`s not that easy, that you think. Everyone thinks his preffered league settings are the most difficult, but the truth is, every type has his +s and -s, his strengths and his flaws.

 

For Doncic and Otto - i own them both. Traded Glassy Harris (before first injury), Dinwiddie and WCJ for Luka, picked Otto from the waivers (in his early struggles). In 8 cat (which i play) there is no way to even compare this guys. Luka is on another galaxy for Otto. However the truth is that in 9cat Otto maybe has better outlook than Luka ROS, because of the injuries in Wiz squad and because Otto is very valuable in 9cat for the low TOs. But that is far for sure thing, because Luka has a coach behind him and Otto is headed to the bench, maybe permanently, to make place in the starting 5 for the defensive monster Jeff "Brooks` lover" Green.

 

I got your point for the alpha dog type of player, who all of us serach in the early rounds and i 100% agree, but he has some good point, too. In the end, i will draft Luka instead of Otto in any settings, in any cats and the reason is very simple - potential. If that`s the floor for Luka (obviously it is) - the limit is the sky. On the other hand, Otto is known like 3rd best player on playoff team and if he is 2nd or even 1st option on his team (that team will be tanking team, obviously), the %s will drop, the TOs will rise and he will lose that value, that he has now. He can`t outproduce Luka in the other cats and will be far behind him again, even in 9 cat.

 

By the way, Luka and Otto are the most appropriate example for the difference between values of same players in different league settings - 8 and 9 cat roto.

Ya I don't play roto, so I agree with all your points about pure value and rankings in a 9cat v 8 cat roto system.

In H2H, take a look at this example, for this week between Otto Porter and Luka Doncic:

 

Luka: 3 games total = 86 pts, 22 rebs, 19 ast, 8 3pm, 6 steals, 1 blk, 6 t/o, 47% fg, 67% ft

Otto: 3 games total = 42 pts, 16 rebs, 4 ast, 6 3pm, 7 steals, 0 blks, 7 t/o, 44% fg, 80% ft.

 

Otto wins 2 cats (by 1 steal and a good margin on ft%, but otto didn't hardly take any ft's so doesn't help really).

Doncic wins 7 cats (3 of them by very large margins)

Imagine how big a difference 44 pts, 6rebs, 15 assists, 2 3s, 1 blk could make to your counting stats in one week - easily enough between winning and losing many weeks. 

 

This is just a one week example, but if you do this for any week in the last two months I bet the results will be similar or worse for Otto. 

Edited by richg24
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idk @richg24 luka can very easily lose you  ft% the way he has been playing.  (I actually hate when people say this because one player cant be the only reason you lose a cat. but I think you understand what im getting at.) 69% ft on 9 attempts the last month is one of the worst. 5th worst. worst than capela, westbrook, Giannis

 

I agree this is probably his floor and have no doubt he will improve on his %'s but will it happen this season?

 

someone mention if otto volume goes up his fg% and t/o will suffer which didn't happen last season when he was #2 with wall out.

16 pts, 52.6 fg% 1 t/o. even if his volume goes up more hes not just suddenly shoot 45% especially being a 43% and 44% 3pt shooter the last 2 years 

even 8 cat he was 29th overall over 27 games with wall out.

 

luka is 28th overall the past month when you punt ft% and t/o and 38th on the year

so you could still make a case porter >luka in h2h 8 cat ROS if otto performs like he did last year without wall

 

 

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27 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

idk @richg24 luka can very easily lose you  ft% the way he has been playing.  (I actually hate when people say this because one player cant be the only reason you lose a cat. but I think you understand what im getting at.) 69% ft on 9 attempts the last month is one of the worst. 5th worst. worst than capela, westbrook, Giannis

 

I agree this is probably his floor and have no doubt he will improve on his %'s but will it happen this season?

 

someone mention if otto volume goes up his fg% and t/o will suffer which didn't happen last season when he was #2 with wall out.

16 pts, 52.6 fg% 1 t/o. even if his volume goes up more hes not just suddenly shoot 45% especially being a 43% and 44% 3pt shooter the last 2 years 

even 8 cat he was 29th overall over 27 games with wall out.

 

luka is 28th overall the past month when you punt ft% and t/o and 38th on the year

so you could still make a case porter >luka in h2h 8 cat ROS if otto performs like he did last year without wall

 

 

i dunno i easily offset him with gallinari, butler and having big men like jokic, nurkic, and ayton that have good ft% for big men when most teams have a couple bigs that hurt their ft% quite a bit. it's just team building. all players have weaknesses. you can make arguments like oh harden isn't that good because he can single handedly lose you fg% and turnovers in a week. that's a somewhat true statement but ignores the fact that he prolly had 40 pts 4 3s and 12 assists or whatever. 

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That stepback 3 against KD at the end of the 3rd...

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"Me, earlier: I'm behind 4 3s and 2% in FG and I only have Doncic as my reliable 3pt shooter so maybe I'll just play Nurkic and sit Luka"

image.png.a184a2e555237dafad936978c2a8cb18.png

Edited by ellejamil

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4 minutes ago, ellejamil said:

"Me, earlier: I'm behind 4 3s and 2% in FG and I only have Doncic as my reliable 3pt shooter so maybe I'll just play Nurkic and sit Luka"

image.png.a184a2e555237dafad936978c2a8cb18.png

In Luka we trust!!!

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