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Luka Dončić 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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what s up with his positional eligibility in yahoo?  he is only listed as a pg and im not sure that s his official listing in any outlet, even the mavs site

 

will yahoo change that?

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3 hours ago, n.mollov said:

what s up with his positional eligibility in yahoo?  he is only listed as a pg and im not sure that s his official listing in any outlet, even the mavs site

 

will yahoo change that?

 

Yes, I couldn't find where on yahoo but you can bring stuff like this up. Check Tyreke Evans and Bogdan Bogdanovich's last year threads they both got added positions at yahoo and should have the link where you bring it to yahoo's attention.

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On 9/28/2018 at 9:25 AM, Gile Pile said:

Depends on what you expect from Luka this year and next and where do you think his floor is.    I think this year his floor is top 100, next year top 75.  I also think that Luka will be top 30 player in 2020-2021,  top 50 in 2019-2020 season .

 

In redraft leagues I would take him no earlier than 80th pick overall.   In keeper leagues I have no problem taking Luka in top 50.

 

On 9/30/2018 at 8:27 AM, chud12 said:

The hype will be out of control by the time my draft rolls around making the price to rich for my blood. 

He just went 41st in an 8 cat redraft league. 41st. He isn't going to be around past the 4th round in most leagues. 

 

I have been hesitant on Luka, but I actually think he will play a lot of 4 and that makes him more intriguing to me. I think he is an offensive mismatch as a 4. I have been the patient, wait and see poster here, but I like him as a 4. I am still a wait and see when he is guarded by an NBA wing. I still have questions. But the answers need to be a top 40 player to be able to draft him this year. It is going to be tough to own him unless you are REALLY bullish or just want to own him. 

 

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1 hour ago, bsu27 said:

He looks like he has an all around fantasy friendly game thus far. 

He does.  Does anyone have a good idea who and what rookies will get the most playing time? Including Luka?

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37 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

He does.  Does anyone have a good idea who and what rookies will get the most playing time? Including Luka?

 

ayton and young will get by far the most playing time

 

doncic / knox will probably be third/ fourth around there

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2 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

lol he's no way shape or form worth a 4th rounder.  MAYBE a 5th or 6th.

I think his floor this year is 14pts, 4.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 1pm, 72% and  40%  with 0.9 st and 0.2 blks.  

That puts Luka in the vicinity  of Will Barton, who was ranked 52nd overall on BBM.

 

 

Yep, I am saying that Luka's floor is 5 round.  Laugh all you want, but dude is  good

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10 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

 think his floor this year is 14pts, 4.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 1pm, 72% and  40%  with 0.9 st and 0.2 blks.  

That puts Luka in the vicinity  of Will Barton, who was ranked 52nd overall on BBM.

 

 

Yep, I am saying that Luka's floor is 5 round.  Laugh all you want, but dude is  good

that line is no where near  50 overall

 

cjm was 50 overall with a 2.3 three, 21 pt, 4 reb, 3.4 assists, 1 steal, 0.4 blks, 44%, and 84%

Edited by colepenhagen
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8 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

that line is no where near  50 overall

 

cjm was 50 overall with a 2.3 three, 21 pt, 4 reb, 3.4 assists, 1 steal, 0.4 blks, 44%, and 84%

 Note that my post starts with " I think his floor is...";  he will be better than that line

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23 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

 Note that my post starts with " I think his floor is...";  he will be better than that line

might want to go re read what you typed.

 

your projection for his floor isn't even a top 100 line. its more like wiggins line last year who was outside the top 150

so how can he be a top 52 player when his floor is ouside top 150 (according to your projections)

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42 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

might want to go re read what you typed.

 

your projection for his floor isn't even a top 100 line. its more like wiggins line last year who was outside the top 150

so how can he be a top 52 player when his floor is ouside top 150 (according to your projections)

Not a top 100 line?  I disagree

     Will Barton     15.7 pts, 1.9 3pm,  5.0 reb,  4.1 ast,  1.0 st,  0.6 blk with .452 .805    
    Trevor Ariza    11.7 pts, 2.5 3pm,  4.4 reb,  1.6 ast,  1.5 st,  0.2 blk with .412 and .854

    Luka (floor)     14.0 pts, 1.0 3pm,  4.5 reb,  3.5 ast,  0.9 st,  0.2 blk with .40 and .72

    T. Young          11.8 pts,  0.7 3pm, 6.3 reb,  1.9 ast,  1.7 st,  0.4 blk with .487 and .598
    Eric Gordon     18.0 pts, 3.2 3pm,  2.5 reb,  2.2 ast,  0.6 st,  0.4 blk with .428    and .809    

    
    Barton was 52nd, Ariza was 57th, Young 69th and Gordon was 100th.

 

And this is Luka's floor, he will be better than that.   With improvements in any category (FT%, pts most likely ) he is clearly in 5th round.

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18 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Not a top 100 line?  I disagree

     Will Barton     15.7 pts, 1.9 3pm,  5.0 reb,  4.1 ast,  1.0 st,  0.6 blk with .452 .805, 1.8 TOs
    Trevor Ariza    11.7 pts, 2.5 3pm,  4.4 reb,  1.6 ast,  1.5 st,  0.2 blk with .412 and .854, 0.8 TOs

    Luka (floor)     14.0 pts, 1.0 3pm,  4.5 reb,  3.5 ast,  0.9 st,  0.2 blk with 0.40 and 0.72, 3.0 TOs

    T. Young          11.8 pts,  0.7 3pm, 6.3 reb,  1.9 ast,  1.7 st,  0.4 blk with .487 and .598, 1.3 TOs
    Eric Gordon     18.0 pts, 3.2 3pm,  2.5 reb,  2.2 ast,  0.6 st,  0.4 blk with .428    and .809, 1.9 TOs    

    
    Barton was 52nd, Ariza was 57th, Young 69th and Gordon was 100th.

 

And this is Luka's floor, he will be better than that.   With improvements in any category (FT%, pts most likely ) he is clearly in 5th round.

 

You do see the glaring difference between these lines right? With that efficiency (your assumed "floor" - I've also added another part you are ignoring - TOs) he is outside the top 100 for sure. And I think your floor is generous in points (he could easily end up in the 12-13 range if things don't go well - he only averaged 14.5 in Euroleague - although I know this is a league that doesn't generally have super high individual scoring stats).

 

But, he could also breakout and give top 50 value. He is the epitome of high risk, high reward pick, especially at his current ADP (although the reward is starting to get eliminated by the current level of hype). 

 

It would be wrong to just state his upside without correctly describing the risk in picking him.

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2 hours ago, Judicious said:

Just got both him and Ayton in a dynasty league

 

I'm stupid excited

Congrats. I took Doncic over Ayton, I didn't have that kind of luxury!

 

Doncic has been great so far and he's not even in NBA game shape yet. He is going to be a total fantasy stud.

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On 10/7/2018 at 12:18 PM, Jake the snake said:

 

You do see the glaring difference between these lines right? With that efficiency (your assumed "floor" - I've also added another part you are ignoring - TOs) he is outside the top 100 for sure. And I think your floor is generous in points (he could easily end up in the 12-13 range if things don't go well - he only averaged 14.5 in Euroleague - although I know this is a league that doesn't generally have super high individual scoring stats).

 

That's due to a number of reasons actually. In Euroleague, we've got:

 

  • 40-min games, hence less time on the court on average
  • Better team defensive approach
  • more contact, hand checking etc allowed 
  • more travels called

 

Also, regarding Luca's predictions above, I believe his assists will be a lot more than 3.5. I expect something around 5.0. He (already) is a great playmaker with tremendous passing skills. Plus, another thing that is worked out differently in Europe is assists. It's a lot harder to get an assist there and Luca has 4.3 in 26 mins last year.

 

I would also expect his made 3-pointers to be between 1.5 and 2.0.

 

Saying that, I'd be drafting him between 7th and 8th round but with all that hype, I doubt I stand any chance.

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lol the euros in this thread are cute

 

luka fell to me in the 8th round/92nd pick, so i had to take him .. i think he could be a top 50 guy post asb 

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