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De'Aaron Fox 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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On 11/29/2018 at 2:38 PM, colepenhagen said:

 

shooting slump of regression to the mean?

 

o/u 42% fg ROS?

Over by a wide margin in my opinion.  His current FG% (47%) doesn't seem very unrealistic, especially since it's right in between his monthly splits (48% in October and 46.4% in November so far).

 

19 hours ago, Quazza said:

one of 5 players in the league to average 17 points, 5 assists and 4 boards. The other 4?

Harden
CP3
Westbrook
Jrue


Kid is legit. Hope the Kings dont mess this up

Agreed, although I think it would be hard for them to mess it up now.  He's been really good for basically two months now, even factoring in his recent slump.

 

The strides he's made in November alone in his FT shooting is encouraging.  He's still not consistently solid there, but he's at least gotten it to a manageable level where he can be owned even on teams that aren't tanking FT%.  That's extremely nice since, like you said, he's having a season that puts him in elite company and is sorely needed nowadays with the way the PG position is now (more about scoring and less about assists).

Edited by KilloWertz

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21 hours ago, Quazza said:

one of 5 players in the league to average 17 points, 5 assists and 4 boards. The other 4?

Harden
CP3
Westbrook
Jrue


Kid is legit. Hope the Kings dont mess this up

 

Not that Fox isn’t legit so far, but I think there’s way more than 5 guys averaging those numbers right now

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29 minutes ago, misterj said:

 

Not that Fox isn’t legit so far, but I think there’s way more than 5 guys averaging those numbers right now

Yeah, there's at least 10-15 players averaging that.  I started going through the stats, typing a list, and then eventually gave up at about 8 because there were a good amount more with at least that line still to list.

 

Probably should have made it 17 points, 7 assists, and 4 boards.  Only 14 players are averaging 7 or more assists, so at least it would have been semi-rare.

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What the hell is happening with his shot? Almost 10 games now with sub-par shooting and I'm starting to think this is a regression and not a slump

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11 minutes ago, a-rob said:

yeah he has really slowed down, starting to think if the hot start was for real or a fluke. at least the assists numbers still there

His shooting continuing to be this bad for a semi-extended period of time has become at least a bit of a concern, but the already mentioned assist numbers along with solid defensive stats has me still calm.  He has continued to make strides at the FT line (minus tonight), and still remains productive, so I'm ok.

 

Edit:  And of course after I post this he starts to get hot in the second half.

Edited by KilloWertz

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3 minutes ago, a-rob said:

yeah but bummer because us who drafted him were expecting top 50 value even if he was drafted late because he played so well early. just thinking positive, he might not return top 50 value but at least still higher than his ADP

That doesn't quite add up.  I don't know why he would have been drafted in the Top 50, but if you drafted him late, you weren't expecting Top 50 value.  You were hoping for it somehow.  He gave no indication last season that he was going to be a Top 50 player this season.

 

He still should be a pretty valuable PG when all is said and done.  He's earned enough leash not to panic, and like I said in my edit of my post, he has gotten hot in the second half so far.  He likely won't play at all in the 4th quarter since the game is a debacle, but he's gotten going at least.

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4 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

His shooting continuing to be this bad for a semi-extended period of time has become at least a bit of a concern, but the already mentioned assist numbers along with solid defensive stats has me still calm.  He has continued to make strides at the FT line (minus tonight), and still remains productive, so I'm ok.

 

Edit:  And of course after I post this he starts to get hot in the second half.

was just about to do the same and then he did that :))

 

I thought the 47% shooting was sustainable. His shot looks smooth, almost like Dipo's. I guess he's getting scouted out more too. i noticed that he's been blocked more lately. He also seemed a lot less confident now shooting from 3. But his assists numbers are still there, which I think could have been higher if WCS/Kosta can just finish well in the rim. I've watched the last couple of Kings games and Fox could have had at least 3 more assists in those games.

 

Top-50 seems far-fetched, especially with his FT%, but in the right team build he could be a great bargain especially when taken in the last rounds.

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0% chance he shoots 47% on the year (assuming he plays full year)

 

what type guard can shoot 47% fg and not shoot 75% ft% doesn't add up (outside the pt forwards which fox is not)

or a rondo /payton which fox is not 

Edited by colepenhagen

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6 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

0% chance he shoots 47% on the year (assuming he plays full year)

 

what type guard can shoot 47% fg and not shoot 75% ft% doesn't add up (outside the pt forwards which fox is not)

or a rondo /payton which fox is not 

Easy layups, teardrops. And his poor FT shooting could also be a mental thing.

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I think he's putting our doubts to rest tonight.  26 points early in the 4th quarter tonight, and it likely would have been even higher right now if not for foul trouble.

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TOP 50 ROS in 8 category leagues. And he isn't even 21 yet. The Future is Bright!

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1 hour ago, ellejamil said:

Went quickly from a bust night in the mid-3rd to great

I was going offline and he was 0-6 from the field.  Turned to 1-7 before I closed the browser, then I get back on and see he went nuts.  Crazy, but it doesn't matter how he got to another great line obviously.

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On 12/5/2018 at 12:25 AM, colepenhagen said:

0% chance he shoots 47% on the year (assuming he plays full year)

 

what type guard can shoot 47% fg and not shoot 75% ft% doesn't add up (outside the pt forwards which fox is not)

or a rondo /payton which fox is not 

 

FWIW, he's shooting nearly 77% from the FT line since November(18 games) on over 5 attempts per game

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He'll be the best PG in the NBA in a couple of years. The Lakers look like clowns for drafting Lonzo above him. 

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

He'll be the best PG in the NBA in a couple of years. The Lakers look like clowns for drafting Lonzo above him. 

 

Totally agree... Fox shooled ball back in college and still will as a pro. I'm a Lakers fan and I was so mad that they didn't take fox back then. Iono about potential, lenghs and all that, but fox has the instinct to take over.

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10 hours ago, absknicks said:

He'll be the best PG in the NBA in a couple of years. The Lakers look like clowns for drafting Lonzo above him. 

Best PG in the league? lol. Is this a joke?

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10 hours ago, absknicks said:

He'll be the best PG in the NBA in a couple of years. The Lakers look like clowns for drafting Lonzo above him. 

 

I like this assessment. Couple means (2) so that means Fox will be better than (Kyrie, Curry, Wall, Westbrook & Lillard).

 

Good call

  • Haha 2

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8 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

I like this assessment. Couple means (2) so that means Fox will be better than (Kyrie, Curry, Wall, Westbrook & Lillard).

 

Good call

 

Yep, in 2-3 years, I think he will be. Think a lot of people who watch the sport everyday would agree there's a decent chance of that.

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Just now, absknicks said:

 

Yep, in 2-3 years, I think he will be. Think a lot of people who watch the sport everyday would agree there's a decent chance of that. 

like who? :o

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1 minute ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

like who? :o

 

I mean, why do you think it's out of the question? He's playing at an all-star level RIGHT NOW in his 2nd season in the NBA... he's probably the fastest player in the league end to end, he's turned into a capable 3-pt shooter in one offseason, he's an excellent passer... what doesn't he have? Would love to hear your assessment. 

Edited by absknicks
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