Letitbe793

Wander Franco, SS, TB

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1 minute ago, osb_tensor said:

from the fangraphs top 100 article posted 2/13/19..

image.png.e2d28371bc9024f7eefc04a5011b387c.png

 

Clearly a mistake given their praise in that sentence for him, lol. I think they had him as a 70 hit tool and only reason they didn’t give him an 80 is because they wanted to see more than one season at rookie ball.

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6 minutes ago, killa3312 said:

Clearly a mistake given their praise in that sentence for him, lol. I think they had him as a 70 hit tool and only reason they didn’t give him an 80 is because they wanted to see more than one season at rookie ball.

where are you getting 70 from?

with regard to fangraphs:

  • on his main player page it has 35/65
  • on the top 100 post is has 35/65 (2/13/19)
  • on the individual tampa bay prospects post it has 35/65 (1/22/19)

i'm not saying i agree with it, but i'm not sure what makes you think it's a misprint in three different locations? your claim of fangraphs giving him a current 70 grade appears to be unsubstantiated.

Edited by osb_tensor
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50 minutes ago, killa3312 said:

 

They never get old man. This kid is an unbelievable prospect, might be the best overall prospect in the last 5 years, honestly. He just turned 18 in March, it's unreal. His bat to ball skills are once in a generation special and he could probably go to the majors right now and hold his own. I hope when they do promote him, they are aggressive and skip him over high-A and straight to AA. He is that special a player.

I'm not saying he's a better prospect with the bat or even on the same plane as Vlad, Jr., but if he isn't, he is really, really close. However, as an overall prospect, given speed, position, etc. he is probably better at the same age. Even if he moves off SS and goes to 3B or 2B, it's still a more valuable position than RF. Personally, I think he sticks at SS long term. He's good enough to stay there and, quite frankly, Adames sucks. He isn't the long term answer at that position for the Rays.

 

The 23 year old former top prospect who is in his first full season?

Let's be real, no one will stand in Franco's way. But to say Adames sucks is a bit premature. If he develops to expectations, wouldn't he at SS and Franco at 3B be their best option?

Edited by ThreadKiller
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3 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

where are you getting 70 from?

with regard to fangraphs:

  • on his main player page it has 35/65
  • on the top 100 post is has 35/65 (2/13/19)
  • on the individual tampa bay prospects post it has 35/65 (1/22/19)

i'm not saying i agree with it, but i'm not sure what makes you think it's a misprint in three different locations? your claim of fangraphs giving him a current 70 grade appears to be unsubstantiated.

 

It was from a chat they had a while back, iirc. Either way, the 35 is clearly a mistake.

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5 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

where are you getting 70 from?

with regard to fangraphs:

  • on his main player page it has 35/65
  • on the top 100 post is has 35/65 (2/13/19)
  • on the individual tampa bay prospects post it has 35/65 (1/22/19)

i'm not saying i agree with it, but i'm not sure what makes you think it's a misprint in three different locations? your claim of fangraphs giving him a current 70 grade appears to be unsubstantiated.

 

I don't think he's saying its a misprint, I think he's saying it was a low grade. 

 

EDIT: Ok, maybe I'm wrong

Edited by brockpapersizer

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2 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

The 23 year old former top prospect who is in his first full season?

 

Touche, but I haven’t seen many encouraging signs to indicate otherwise. He’d have decent #’s if he didn’t get off to such an awful start, though.

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Wander’s hit tool is definitely a 70, bare minimum. The ability to hit for average and the bat on ball talent is rarely seen, especially at his age. The guy just doesn’t strike out and always puts the ball in play, usually with hard contact. If you’re worried about that grade, don’t be.

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5 minutes ago, killa3312 said:

Wander’s hit tool is definitely a 70, bare minimum. The ability to hit for average and the bat on ball talent is rarely seen, especially at his age. The guy just doesn’t strike out and always puts the ball in play, usually with hard contact. If you’re worried about that grade, don’t be.

I wasn’t worried about it I was just curious to how the grading process worked. It struck me as being way too low obv. I’m sure it’s not a mistake given how attentive that site is to details and how thorough their prospect writers are over there. I agree his hit tool is already one of the best I’ve seen in a long while.

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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

I wasn’t worried about it I was just curious to how the grading process worked. It struck me as being way too low obv. I’m sure it’s not a mistake given how attentive that site is to details and how thorough their prospect writers are over there. I agree his hit tool is already one of the best I’ve seen in a long while.

They're more or less grading the current hit tool of 35 based on how they feel he would fare in the majors today, while the 65 represents what they expect the hit tool to be once he's established at that level. I usually don't concern myself with present grades when it comes to prospects, only the expected FV ones.

That said, I'd agree the 35 is probably a bit too low for his present grade, but he did just turn 18 in March and even though he's destroying A ball, he still hasn't had an at bat at the A+ level yet. Either way though, he's not going to be up anytime soon so we'll likely never know how he would fare against advanced pitching this season.

Here's another few examples that could help - Adley Rutschman also has a present grade hit tool of 35, Bobby Witt Jr.'s is 20! and even Andrew Vaughn's (thought to be the most advanced bat in this year's draft class) is just a 40 (that's the highest present value hit tool grade I saw them give for this year's class as an aside). Again, I pay no attention to those grades.

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4 hours ago, meh2 said:

Can someone who knows a bit about scouting grades explain to me how Fangraphs has Franco at a 35 present grade for hit tool? As a 17 year old last year in rookie ball he hit .351 with a 9.9% walk rate and 7.0% k rate. This year in A ball he’s hitting.326 with a 10.4% bb rate and 7.5% k rate. That seems like a pretty elite hit tool already.

 

Fangraphs is much less of a hyper then other sites and they don't really give a player the credit tell after they have proven themself and by the scouting standard Franco wasn't really proven before the season started and that was the last time they did update there rankings and it's a mather of you have to wait for the midseason update that may not happen for atless another month.

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2 minutes ago, Fantasy Monk said:

 

Fangraphs is much less of a hyper then other sites and they don't really give a player the credit tell after they have proven themself and by the scouting standard Franco wasn't really proven before the season started and that was the last time they did update there rankings and it's a mather of you have to wait for the midseason update that may not happen for atless another month.

 

He wasn’t proven? He had one of the best debuts for a 17 year old in history, skipped complex ball, and was the #1 international prospect by far in his class. Believe me, scouts have known, and loved him, a long time. FanGraphs is notoriously conservative on grades as I believe pretty much every other industry has him as at least a 70 hit tool.

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Fangraphs explains how they interpret the scouting scale here.

Basically a 70 present value hit tool means that the player could hit .300 in MLB today. Wander, as good as he is, could not skip over 3 levels of the minors and do that. His performance in Low-A probably merits a bump of his present hit tool to 40 or even 45, and it’s fair to argue his hit tool future value should’ve been 70+ all along, but there’s still plenty of development that needs to happen.

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Don't even know what we are arguing here. He has a great hit tool. Who cares what one site may or may not have had him at 3 months ago. 

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50 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Don't even know what we are arguing here. He has a great hit tool. Who cares what one site may or may not have had him at 3 months ago. 

Fangraphs has his present hit tool at 35 (FV 65) on their most recent prospect ranking list, that was the crux of @meh2's confusion. He just wasn't 100% sure what the 35 represented.

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3 hours ago, killa3312 said:

 

He wasn’t proven? He had one of the best debuts for a 17 year old in history, skipped complex ball, and was the #1 international prospect by far in his class. Believe me, scouts have known, and loved him, a long time. FanGraphs is notoriously conservative on grades as I believe pretty much every other industry has him as at least a 70 hit tool.

 

He was, I wouldn't argue that but a half season in the lower minors does not meet Fangraphs standards of being proven. You may say that's crazy and it is but it is what it is,

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12 minutes ago, Fantasy Monk said:

 

He was, I wouldn't argue that but a half season in the lower minors does not meet Fangraphs standards of being proven. You may say that's crazy and it is but it is what it is,

They just do all the updates at one I imagine. 

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On 6/3/2019 at 2:42 PM, UberRebel said:

 

I don’t know if I’m fully bought in on him being a 30 HR power threat. It should be doable with his bat speed in the juiced ball era, but you just never know. 

 

 

 

???? He's on pace to hit 18 HR's at age 18 in low A ball.   He could probably hit 30 homers now in the juiced ball MLB (somewhat hyperbole)

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5 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

???? He's on pace to hit 18 HR's at age 18 in low A ball.   He could probably hit 30 homers now in the juiced ball MLB (somewhat hyperbole)

 

Wander needs more developing. He's going to be a star but it's premature to claim he would hit 30 homers right now in the MLB.

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Wander needs more developing. He's going to be a star but it's premature to claim he would hit 30 homers right now in the MLB.

 

Agreed. I could pretty comfortably say that Wander wouldn't hit 30 or even 20 in MLB today. That said, at the same age (for context), Vlad Jr hit 13 homers between A and A+. Wander is right where he needs to be.

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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Wander needs more developing. He's going to be a star but it's premature to claim he would hit 30 homers right now in the MLB.

 

My point was more that it makes no sense to not be bought in on the 30 HR power when you consider his season pace and how HR's actually increase in the majors from the minors, and of course that he just turned freaking 18.

 

If you aren't bought in on the 30 HR power then you just aren't bought in on him for some reason.  It's hard to envision a scenario where he's fully developed and hits .300 with only 20 HR over a full season.  Doesn't make sense to think everything else is legit just not the HR power.

Edited by The Waker

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I don't really trust Fangraphs for player scouting. I can't get over the fact that even after Soto was tearing up the minors last season they only gave Juan Soto a 55 for his future hit tool.

In any case, I've said this before, but Wander Franco has the upside of Juan Soto at shortstop with more stolen bases.

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3 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

My point was more that it makes no sense to not be bought in on the 30 HR power when you consider his season pace and how HR's actually increase in the majors from the minors, and of course that he just turned freaking 18.

 

If you aren't bought in on the 30 HR power then you just aren't bought in on him for some reason.  It's hard to envision a scenario where he's fully developed and hits .300 with only 20 HR over a full season.  Doesn't make sense to think everything else is legit just not the HR power.

 

I love him as a prospect and am not hating. For me maybe it’s just the eye test. He’s 5’10 so it’s harder for me to picture that kind of power from him compared to a hulking 6’3 buff guy. Not saying that rule of thumb is always correct - Alex Bregman is an example of the exception 

Edited by UberRebel

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1 minute ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

I don't really trust Fangraphs for player scouting. I can't get over the fact that even after Soto was tearing up the minors last season they only gave Juan Soto a 55 for his future hit tool.

In any case, I've said this before, but Wander Franco has the upside of Juan Soto at shortstop with more stolen bases.

 

I see a cross between Bregman and Soto

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26 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

I don't really trust Fangraphs for player scouting. I can't get over the fact that even after Soto was tearing up the minors last season they only gave Juan Soto a 55 for his future hit tool.

In any case, I've said this before, but Wander Franco has the upside of Juan Soto at shortstop with more stolen bases.

you mean tearing it up in 2017?  or 2018? Cause I doubt they redid his grade after 2018 because he graduated by midseason.  55 might have been low heading into 2018, but like, I wouldn't. Heading into 2018, he wasn't even in high A yet.  If it's low, it wasn't low by that much heading into the season, even if it ended up being wrong after the fact.

It's prospects, everyone isn't going to nail every grade on every tool. 55 is a plus hit tool. Like 60 was probably better, but that's a pretty small difference. I think anything more would have been super aggressive at the time.

Is there anyone with free access to every grade that we can see archived to compare after the fact that does it any better than fg? If so, I'm interested. Everyone is going to be wrong.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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