Letitbe793

Wander Franco, SS, TB

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35 minutes ago, killa3312 said:

. Definitely should start the season in AA bare minimum next season.

I doubt they skip him. It's most likely AA, but I'd think a return to High A would be likelier than AAA. 

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17 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I doubt they skip him. It's most likely AA, but I'd think a return to High A would be likelier than AAA. 

 

Considering how good he was compared to his peers and the fact that he was only 18, can’t imagine him not starting next season in AA. Only his power lagged down the stretch but he still hit for plenty of XBH power. Just checked and yes, his OPS and average would have both led the league if he qualified all while walking way more than he struck out. It’s insane that the third highest qualified OPS in the league was .790.

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Everyone is talking about how special of a talent this kid is. Just curious, what do you think his floor is?

Not really in a dynasty league, but we are allowed two minor leaguers that are exempt from our keeper rules. I have him and Jo Adell.

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On 8/29/2019 at 7:53 AM, King_of_Kings said:

The complete opposite is true. Humid and wet air is good for baseball flight. The more humid, the further the ball travels. That's why they always say,once the weather warms up, the ball flies out. Humid wet air in the summer is actually less dense than the dry cooler air you see in fall/winter. It may not "feel" like it, but it's basic science.

 

https://www.exploratorium.edu/sports/ask_us_sports_august.html 

 

"Does a baseball travel farther when hit in humid weather conditions? If so, what scientific principles are at work?

You might think that a baseball (or another type of ball) would not travel as far on humid day due to the moisture in the air--but just the opposite true. The air may feel "heavier" on a muggy day ,but it is not any denser; in fact, it's slightly lighter! (The sticky uncomfortable feeling most of us experience on this type of day is due to condensation hindering the evaporation of perspiration.)"

 

 

 

 

He wasn’t wrong. There is a reason teams install humidors to suppress offense. In humid conditions baseballs retain moisture which makes them not travel as far. 

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10 hours ago, charger_ss24 said:

Everyone is talking about how special of a talent this kid is. Just curious, what do you think his floor is?

Not really in a dynasty league, but we are allowed two minor leaguers that are exempt from our keeper rules. I have him and Jo Adell.

 

Im a massive Franco fan (see: thread), but if we’re being honest the floor for any 18 year old in the minors is low. There’s always the chance he could not continue his development.

 

Since that’s really unlikely given what we’ve seen, I’d focus more on what a reasonable low-end projection for him would be. 

 

Low end:

.280

20 HRs

10 stolen bases 

160 runs + RBIs 

 

Middle:

.310

30 hrs 

15 stolen bases

180 runs + RBIs

 

High end:

.330

40 home runs 

25 stolen bases 

220 runs + RBIs 

 

 

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obviously the ship has ailed in dynasty long ago....but im interested in thoughts on him for a 4 yr $260 keeper league...assuming if he is taken off waivers now he would be $10 in 2020 where he may not even play and take one of 5-6 valuable bench spots....but the rewards to have him in 2021 at $15, 2022 $20 and 2023 at $25 would more than make up the difference if he is the real deal....anyone dealing with this decision?  

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1 hour ago, Big Tuna said:

obviously the ship has ailed in dynasty long ago....but im interested in thoughts on him for a 4 yr $260 keeper league...assuming if he is taken off waivers now he would be $10 in 2020 where he may not even play and take one of 5-6 valuable bench spots....but the rewards to have him in 2021 at $15, 2022 $20 and 2023 at $25 would more than make up the difference if he is the real deal....anyone dealing with this decision?  

That’s an interesting dilemma, because there’s no guarantee he will play in 2021. I would ask myself if the rewards for the 2022 and 2023 seasons outweigh the cons of the roster spot and contract under the assumption that he will not play for your squad in 2020 and 2021.

I’m a Franco owner in a keeper league that hold just two minor leaguers. I’ve already held him for a year and a half. I hate to think I might have to keep him in that minor slot for another two.🤪

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43 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

That’s an interesting dilemma, because there’s no guarantee he will play in 2021. I would ask myself if the rewards for the 2022 and 2023 seasons outweigh the cons of the roster spot and contract under the assumption that he will not play for your squad in 2020 and 2021.

I’m a Franco owner in a keeper league that hold just two minor leaguers. I’ve already held him for a year and a half. I hate to think I might have to keep him in that minor slot for another two.🤪

 

If he starts next season in AA as he should and continues to rake I can’t see any scenario in which he isn’t on the big club in 2021. The new Rays front office is much more aggressive with players than the previous.

Edited by killa3312

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2 minutes ago, killa3312 said:

 

If he starts next season in AA as he should and continues to rake I can’t see any scenario in which he isn’t on the big club in 2021. The new Rays front office is much more aggressive with players than the previous.

 

Barring injury I think his odds at 2020 are better than 2022, 2021 is def most likely.

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By the way, if he had qualified with enough ABs in either league, he would have led both the Midwest League and the FSL in OPS and been second in the Midwest league in average and first in the FSL in average all while sporting a 56/35 BB/K ratio. In case you didn’t need anymore evidence to how special this kid is. I wouldn’t worry about the lack of HRs honestly, he showed plenty of pop in the Appy league last season but the Midwest league and FSL are both pitcher friendly leagues. Once he gets to AAA and the majors with that juices baseball all those doubles are going to turn into homers.

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The hype train in 2020 is going to be really fun to follow. 2019 was fun because top publications started realizing how special of a talent Franco is. 2020 is going to be when the rest of the fantasy landscape (ie. casual fans) realizes it.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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On 10/5/2019 at 8:59 PM, hailtoyourvictor said:

The hype train in 2020 is going to be really fun to follow. 2019 was fun because top publications started realizing how special of a talent Franco is. 2020 is going to be when the rest of the fantasy landscape (ie. casual fans) realizes it.

The hype will be identical to Vlad’s without the letdown.  

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If the Rays somehow manage to knock out the Yankees today, and then make some serious noise in the playoffs, would that affect Wander’s timeline?

 

If you have a young core of Snell, Glasnow, Meadows, Lowe, Lowe, McKay, and a nasty bullpen why wait?

 

I’m not saying rush Franco through the minors, but if your window is open and you have an MLB ready phenom that can contribute, you’re only hurting your chances holding him back and not syncing his timeline along with the rest of your core.

Edited by UberRebel

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On 10/10/2019 at 1:26 PM, UberRebel said:

If the Rays somehow manage to knock out the Yankees today, and then make some serious noise in the playoffs, would that affect Wander’s timeline?

 

If you have a young core of Snell, Glasnow, Meadows, Lowe, Lowe, McKay, and a nasty bullpen why wait?

 

I’m not saying rush Franco through the minors, but if your window is open and you have an MLB ready phenom that can contribute, you’re only hurting your chances holding him back and not syncing his timeline along with the rest of your core.

 

I personally would say yes, but MLB GMs are a different breed. Milwaukee sent their 2nd best hitter to the minors for a month to save money and lost the division by two games.

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On 10/14/2019 at 7:48 AM, killa3312 said:

He is playing in the Dominican Winter League so will be interesting to track his progress there.


And he homered in his first AB tonight. While not necessarily good players, this league has a lot of former MLB players in it so it’s still basically men versus an 18 year old kid.

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Zac (Tallahassee, Florida): 

  • What level do you expect Wander starts the season at, and where do you think he finishes? Thanks!


Emily Waldon: I think that depends on how much the Rays decide to gamble on him. He proved he could handle a challenge with the jump to High-A and, as expected, blew everyone away. I'd expect him to start the year back in High-A, but if his Spring camp is strong, I wouldn't scratch out the chance of him getting an aggressive push to Double-A to see how he handles it.

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27 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Zac (Tallahassee, Florida): 

  • What level do you expect Wander starts the season at, and where do you think he finishes? Thanks!


Emily Waldon: I think that depends on how much the Rays decide to gamble on him. He proved he could handle a challenge with the jump to High-A and, as expected, blew everyone away. I'd expect him to start the year back in High-A, but if his Spring camp is strong, I wouldn't scratch out the chance of him getting an aggressive push to Double-A to see how he handles it.


Personally I’d rather see him start the year in a league that doesn’t neuter his power like the FSL does. No justification to start him in High-A considering his average and OPS would have both led the league had he qualified.

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1 minute ago, killa3312 said:


Personally I’d rather see him start the year in a league that doesn’t neuter his power like the FSL does. No justification to start him in High-A considering his average and OPS would have both led the league had he qualified.

 

I don't disagree, but we don't make the decisions

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Zac (Tallahassee, Florida): 

  • What level do you expect Wander starts the season at, and where do you think he finishes? Thanks!


Emily Waldon: I think that depends on how much the Rays decide to gamble on him. He proved he could handle a challenge with the jump to High-A and, as expected, blew everyone away. I'd expect him to start the year back in High-A, but if his Spring camp is strong, I wouldn't scratch out the chance of him getting an aggressive push to Double-A to see how he handles it.

I don’t think she knows what she’s talking about.  As Killa mentioned, he would’ve led the FSL in average and ops.  Rays aren’t nearly as conservative with promoting prospects as they have been in past years.  He will receive a Spring Training invite.  I don’t know if they use the same regular season MLB baseballs in Spring Training.  But I do think people will be talking more about AAA versus High A if those hands/bat speed meet the juiced baseballs in Spring Training.  To me, it’s very obvious that he SHOULD start the year in AA.  

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10 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

Wow. I blinked and darn near missed the swing. Has there been better bat speed from the left side since Bonds?

 

That would be a great question for the good folks at Baseball America.  Just don’t ask Emily. 

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21 hours ago, Strike Three said:

  To me, it’s very obvious that he SHOULD start the year in AA.  

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with you for the most part.  Whether he does or not is the real question. AA is obviously way more exciting because if he just blows it up, 2020 becomes an actual possibility. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with you for the most part.  Whether he does or not is the real question. AA is obviously way more exciting because if he just blows it up, 2020 becomes an actual possibility. 

 

Brock, do you see a Spring Training invite on the horizon? If so, over or under 9 HRs?

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