Letitbe793

Wander Franco, SS, TB

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On 4/13/2020 at 9:19 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

30 is probably pushing it, but I guess a slightly better average Lindor might be accurate. Seems great.

 

30 is pushing it for Wander’s ceiling?

 

Lindor is a career .288 hitter. .318 isn’t pushing it for Wander’s ceiling IMO. Wander has batting title upside.

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Lindor is a bad comp to Wander since Lindor was just a glove first prospect. Lindor benefitted from MLB pitchers throwing more strikes. I comp Wander franco to Oscar Tavares. 

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10 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

Lindor is a bad comp to Wander since Lindor was just a glove first prospect. Lindor benefitted from MLB pitchers throwing more strikes. I comp Wander franco to Oscar Tavares. 

pretty sure they were talking about wanders ceiling being what lindor is now. not the type of prospect lindor was (plus higher avg upside for franco maybe a little less pop)

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Posted (edited)

Lindor seems like an odd comp to me (same with Tavares) . Franco should hit for a higher avg than Lindor but I don't expect him to have quite as many homers or steals. Could be wrong. (And Tavares had the same kind of avg upside but a little more power with less potential for steals).

I think Franco gets so much hype cuz he's seems like a really SAFE prospect with a REALLY high floor. He IS really impressive, especially considering his age. His hitting potential (avg/obp) is his strength. His power is expected to improve and he can steal some bases. But, how much those parts of his game improves is projection (which isn't always a guarantee). So, he might not be a top 10 player in the majors but he should be at least a top 50 player.

To me, a .320+ average (with the possibility of batting titles) with 25+ homers, 20+ steals, and 180+ runs/rbi seems like the ceiling for Franco. Floor would be a little lower but not by a lot.. 

I couldn't think of a good comp but any player that can help across the board and be a BIG help with his avg will be valuable and AT LEAST a top 5 shortstop.

Edited by dan
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a decent comp might be prime Roberto Alomar (BAL & CLV years)

 

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Posted (edited)

There is no comp for Franco, honestly. He has crazy elite bat control and crazy hand/eye coordination to go with all world plate discipline. He’s like Ichiro, but with the ability to walk more than he strikes out and 20-25+ HR potential. I think he has the bat speed and wrists to hit for elite power but unless he changes his swing I don’t see it happening. Why would you change his swing, though, when he is so damn elite already?

Edited by killa3312

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1 hour ago, killa3312 said:

There is no comp for Franco, honestly. He has crazy elite bat control and crazy hand/eye coordination to go with all world plate discipline. He’s like Ichiro, but with the ability to walk more than he strikes out and 20-25+ HR potential. I think he has the bat speed and wrists to hit for elite power but unless he changes his swing I don’t see it happening. Why would you change his swing, though, when he is so damn elite already?

He's a best Juan Soto, who has shown the bolded above, but at the MLB level, with a bit less power and more speed. Of course I'd take that all day long.

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5 hours ago, dan said:

Lindor seems like an odd comp to me (same with Tavares) . Franco should hit for a higher avg than Lindor but I don't expect him to have quite as many homers or steals. Could be wrong. (And Tavares had the same kind of avg upside but a little more power with less potential for steals).

I think Franco gets so much hype cuz he's seems like a really SAFE prospect with a REALLY high floor. He IS really impressive, especially considering his age. His hitting potential (avg/obp) is his strength. His power is expected to improve and he can steal some bases. But, how much those parts of his game improves is projection (which isn't always a guarantee). So, he might not be a top 10 player in the majors but he should be at least a top 50 player.

To me, a .320+ average (with the possibility of batting titles) with 25+ homers, 20+ steals, and 180+ runs/rbi seems like the ceiling for Franco. Floor would be a little lower but not by a lot.. 

I couldn't think of a good comp but any player that can help across the board and be a BIG help with his avg will be valuable and AT LEAST a top 5 shortstop.

Pretty much comping him to be a rich man’s Jeff McNeil. If he’s that we should be selling high on our Wander shares ASAP. 

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1 hour ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Pretty much comping him to be a rich man’s Jeff McNeil. If he’s that we should be selling high on our Wander shares ASAP. 

 

If you can get something great sure, but a better version of what McNeil did last year from a player likely debuting 6 years younger than McNeil did is pretty damn good.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

If you can get something great sure, but a better version of what McNeil did last year from a player likely debuting 6 years younger than McNeil did is pretty damn good.

I’m throwing out age. Debut was not mentioned. It was mentioned that Wander’s *ceiling* was those numbers. Basically, 2019 McNeil plus more some additional walks and a dozen more SB’s. If that is Wander’s ceiling, what’s the point of holding him all these years when most current dynasty lists have him as a Top 25 *overall* player? If his ceiling is comparable to McNeil, that’s a huge disappointment. He needs to be in the 220 Runs plus RBI range with a 300+ average and 30HR power to live up to the generational hype he’s received. If he can’t be more than a 25HR guy in today’s game, he’s going to be looking pretty ordinary with 90 RBI’s and 90 Runs scored. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I’m throwing out age. Debut was not mentioned. It was mentioned that Wander’s *ceiling* was those numbers. Basically, 2019 McNeil plus more some additional walks and a dozen more SB’s. If that is Wander’s ceiling, what’s the point of holding him all these years when most current dynasty lists have him as a Top 25 *overall* player? If his ceiling is comparable to McNeil, that’s a huge disappointment. He needs to be in the 220 Runs plus RBI range with a 300+ average and 30HR power to live up to the generational hype he’s received. If he can’t be more than a 25HR guy in today’s game, he’s going to be looking pretty ordinary with 90 RBI’s and 90 Runs scored. 

 

RBIs and Runs are predominantly based upon the surrounding team and health. I also absolutely think there's more power upside there too.

 

Take McNeills line last year and add a dozen steals like you suggested, in the terms of the non team stats, that's basically exactly the same line as Mookie Betts last year, but a few less bombs and 10 points better average.  So basically McNeil with 12 steals in quite an elite player. Mets weren't as good an offensive team as the Rays plus he usually bat leadoff often after pitcher.

 

You mentioned generational hype. So sure if you can get someone great for Wander Franco in a dynasty league you should definitely consider it, Wander isnt a guaranteed to be a star. I don't think blindly hoping any of your prospects turn out to be Trout or Acuna is a good strategy, if someone pays you like he is, take the deal.

 

That being said I think there's a good chance he's a consistent top 3 round pick for near a decade. Those are the types of player outcomes you really want in a Dynasty league. Like 8 years ago or whenever, if you had Freddie Freeman, you did pretty amazingly even if he was never a top 5 pick. That's close to ideal outcome with a prospect. Not sure how many better Dynasty assets there were than Freeman between 2010-2020   (who still remains a good one). 

 

That being said I think he has top few pick upside too. The name I kept hearing as a comp early on was Jose Ramirez. In one dynasty league I'm in someone told me he's "probably just Robinson Cano".  Anyone who thinks Jose Ramirez (with an earlier start and more consistency) or Robinson Cano isn't a great outcome for a prospect fundamentally misunderstands prospects.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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30 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

RBIs and Runs are predominantly based upon the surrounding team and health. I also absolutely think there's more power upside there too.

 

Take McNeills line last year and add a dozen steals like you suggested, in the terms of the non team stats, that's basically exactly the same line as Mookie Betts last year, but a few less bombs and 10 points better average.  So basically McNeil with 12 steals in quite an elite player. Mets weren't as good an offensive team as the Rays plus he usually bat leadoff often after pitcher.

 

You mentioned generational hype. So sure if you can get someone great for Wander Franco in a dynasty league you should definitely consider it, Wander isnt a guaranteed to be a star. I don't think blindly hoping any of your prospects turn out to be Trout or Acuna is a good strategy, if someone pays you like he is, take the deal.

 

That being said I think there's a good chance he's a consistent top 3 round pick for near a decade. Those are the types of player outcomes you really want in a Dynasty league. Like 8 years ago or whenever, if you had Freddie Freeman, you did pretty amazingly even if he was never a top 5 pick. That's close to ideal outcome with a prospect. Not sure how many better Dynasty assets there were than Freeman between 2010-2020   (who still remains a good one). 

 

That being said I think he has top few pick upside too. The name I kept hearing as a comp early on was Jose Ramirez. In one dynasty league I'm in someone told me he's "probably just Robinson Cano".  Anyone who thinks Jose Ramirez (with an earlier start and more consistency) or Robinson Cano isn't a great outcome for a prospect fundamentally misunderstands prospects.

 


If his ceiling is Robinson Cano with more speed and he sticks at shortstop, nobody better be disappointed in that. That would make him a top 5 player in both fantasy and real life due to his position. 
 

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3 minutes ago, killa3312 said:


If his ceiling is Robinson Cano  nobody better be disappointed in that. 

 

FTFY 

Cano is a hall of famer. Obviously one would like more steals ( and I think Franco does steal some) but I'd be fine with that outcome. If I could trade Wander Franco right now for a guy who will 100% have Robinson Cano's career id do that. Still very possible Franco has a better fantasy career than Cano, but having Cano in a dynasty league from the beginning was a fantastic run until a couple years ago.   We all need multiple great players to compete for a championship every year.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Hopefully this translates to power 

 

His bat flip is gonna be sick.

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On 4/17/2020 at 7:57 AM, dan said:

Lindor seems like an odd comp to me (same with Tavares) . Franco should hit for a higher avg than Lindor but I don't expect him to have quite as many homers or steals. Could be wrong. (And Tavares had the same kind of avg upside but a little more power with less potential for steals).

I think Franco gets so much hype cuz he's seems like a really SAFE prospect with a REALLY high floor. He IS really impressive, especially considering his age. His hitting potential (avg/obp) is his strength. His power is expected to improve and he can steal some bases. But, how much those parts of his game improves is projection (which isn't always a guarantee). So, he might not be a top 10 player in the majors but he should be at least a top 50 player.

To me, a .320+ average (with the possibility of batting titles) with 25+ homers, 20+ steals, and 180+ runs/rbi seems like the ceiling for Franco. Floor would be a little lower but not by a lot.. 

I couldn't think of a good comp but any player that can help across the board and be a BIG help with his avg will be valuable and AT LEAST a top 5 shortstop.

 

180 R+RBI ceiling? I just counted 22 (I think) players with 200 or more R+RBI in 2019. With his bat to ball skills and on base skills, he'll be at 200+.

 

.315 / 100 / 25 / 100 / 15

 

That's what I see was a realistic upside for Franco. If we want to talk ceiling, well the batting average ceiling is something higher than any of us are putting out there. If Franco's development continues on this path we could see multiple .340 seasons sprinkled in his career. His hit tool is that advanced. No player has hit .350 since Josh Hamilton did in 2010 but if you're looking for someone under 27 who could get there it would be Franco.

 

NO I'm not calling for or predicting that. I'm just saying that if we are talking ceiling then we really need to be fair to what Franco's batting average ceiling

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

180 R+RBI ceiling? I just counted 22 (I think) players with 200 or more R+RBI in 2019. With his bat to ball skills and on base skills, he'll be at 200+.

 

.315 / 100 / 25 / 100 / 15

 

That's what I see was a realistic upside for Franco. If we want to talk ceiling, well the batting average ceiling is something higher than any of us are putting out there. If Franco's development continues on this path we could see multiple .340 seasons sprinkled in his career. His hit tool is that advanced. No player has hit .350 since Josh Hamilton did in 2010 but if you're looking for someone under 27 who could get there it would be Franco.

 

NO I'm not calling for or predicting that. I'm just saying that if we are talking ceiling then we really need to be fair to what Franco's batting average ceiling

Ok, now take those 22 players, adjust for a higher avg, and enough homers and steals and 22 players drops to only 1 or 2. 

200+ runs/rbi would be more realistic if he can make changes to maximize his power potential. But, if he doesn't and only has 180+ runs/rbi (which is a lot for a shortstop) he would still be plenty valuable.

Edited by dan

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A 300-400-500 slash line hitter sill get 200 rbi/runs depending on his team, lineup spot, and health. 

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36 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

A 300-400-500 slash line hitter sill get 200 rbi/runs depending on his team, lineup spot, and health. 

I think only 2 players did that, last year, though. 

People can say if this and if that. The reality is that's just an extremely high bar.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dan said:

I think only 2 players did that, last year, though. 

People can say if this and if that. The reality is that's just an extremely high bar.

I thought the expectations were that Wander could/should be one of the top players in baseball. A generational talent that would be special. The way some people are talking, they’ll be happy if he’s a top 25-50 player. He’s already currently regarded a top 25 dynasty player overall. So clearly his expectation among prognosticators once he’s up and playing is that he can become a top 1-10 player in baseball. My point is that if your expectations are that he’ll be a top 25-50 guy at his ceiling, you should be selling now because that’s already his current dynasty value and he hasn’t even played a game above high A ball. You might as well not waste the roster spot for the next year or so and go get someone who can help you now. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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8 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

180 R+RBI ceiling? I just counted 22 (I think) players with 200 or more R+RBI in 2019. With his bat to ball skills and on base skills, he'll be at 200+.

 

.315 / 100 / 25 / 100 / 15

 

That's what I see was a realistic upside for Franco. If we want to talk ceiling, well the batting average ceiling is something higher than any of us are putting out there. If Franco's development continues on this path we could see multiple .340 seasons sprinkled in his career. His hit tool is that advanced. No player has hit .350 since Josh Hamilton did in 2010 but if you're looking for someone under 27 who could get there it would be Franco.

 

NO I'm not calling for or predicting that. I'm just saying that if we are talking ceiling then we really need to be fair to what Franco's batting average ceiling

There were 43 players in 2019 that combined for 180+ Runs and RBI’s. 

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35 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I thought the expectations were that Wander could/should be one of the top players in baseball. A generational talent that would be special. The way some people are talking, they’ll be happy if he’s a top 25-50 player. He’s already currently regarded a top 25 dynasty player overall. So clearly his expectation among prognosticators once he’s up and playing is that he can become a top 1-10 player in baseball. My point is that if your expectations are that he’ll be a top 25-50 guy at his ceiling, you should be selling now because that’s already his current dynasty value and he hasn’t even played a game above high A ball. You might as well not waste the roster spot for the next year or so and go get someone who can help you now. 

 

I'd be happy if any prospect turns out to be a top 25-50 player. Expecting any prospect to be a top 10 player will result in disappointment most of the time. And if I owned Franco in any leagues I'd definitely be listening to offers. Doesn't mean I would trade him, depends on the offer(s) but thinking he'd be wasting a spot on a fbb roster because he wouldn't be a generational player is silly.

21 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

There were 43 players in 2019 that combined for 180+ Runs and RBI’s. 

Again, adjust for a higher avg, and enough homers and steals and the number of players drops a lot.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I thought the expectations were that Wander could/should be one of the top players in baseball. A generational talent that would be special. The way some people are talking, they’ll be happy if he’s a top 25-50 player. 

 

I'll say it again, if you can trade him for someone who you think could be the top player in baseball and you don't think Franco can, you should do that trade. I'm not sure Acuna, Trout, or Yelich is available for Franco straight up in a Dynatsy League. After those 3, how many are generational talents that are the top players in baseball? Maybe another 1-2 guys?  I don't think you should turn down a trade of Franco for those 3, instead of talking in the abstract, list actual names of guys you want. Lindor, Soto, and Betts are probably safe betts to take over prospect.  Then you run into a lot of guys who are elite now but. have quite a bit of risk to remian elite multiple years when you compare them to Franco's age multiplier for dynasty

 

Nobody said they'd be happy if he's top 50, that's just you moving the goal posts when I said he could be a perenial 2/3 round pick, which is an amazing outcome for a dynasty. Sure there are better outcomes, but int he leagues I play in I'd love to have a guy like that for a decade. I did a dynasty startup auction in like 2011, and Freddie Freeman was my top $$ player that I purchased (you just got the player forever, their price didnt matter after auction). Freeman has never been a top 5 player, I'm not sure if he was even top 10, and I still think that was a great pick that was a core part of me winning multiple championships. If you're lucky enough to get a Trout or Acuna in a competitive dynasty league, you still need the guys with them to compete for a title. If you can't have one of the 2/3 best players in baseball on your dynasty team, and by definition no more than 2/3 teams can, then you need more guys between 4-25 or even 50. If Franco is one of them, thats great.  I play in leagues that are 15, 20, 30 teams.  Yes, I want Trout/Acuna in every one of them, but unless you were their first or pay a ton, you can't get them and need a core of great players.  Wander Franco absolutely has the upside to still be a #1 player, but if he's the 25th best player for 5-10 years, I'm pretty happy with that outcome.

 

He could be the #1 player, but likely not, because that's a crazy high bar for anyone.  The expectations for the #1 prospect are always high, and basically every one is considered a generational prospect at the time, and besides Acuna/Trout, I'm struggling to think of one that actual reached #1 actual player any time recently.  Acuna's rise was meteoric too, he was #1 prospect for not that long.

 

Many of us play in leagues with minor league farms that are separate form MLB, so having Wander Franco doesn't take up anyone's spot, he's the ideal person to have in that slot. If you're playing in a shallow yahoo league where he's clogging a spot, then sure, I do see some more incentive to trade him sooner. The idea of being top player or bust is extreme and almost to the point where it's not worth talking about any prospect if thats the strategy for the specific league you play in.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'll say it again, if you can trade him for someone who you think could be the top player in baseball and you don't think Franco can, you should do that trade. I'm not sure Acuna, Trout, or Yelich is available for Franco straight up in a Dynatsy League. After those 3, how many are generational talents that are the top players in baseball? Maybe another 1-2 guys?  I don't think you should turn down a trade of Franco for those 3, instead of talking in the abstract, list actual names of guys you want. Lindor, Soto, and Betts are probably safe betts to take over prospect.  Then you run into a lot of guys who are elite now but. have quite a bit of risk to remian elite multiple years when you compare them to Franco's age multiplier for dynasty

 

Nobody said they'd be happy if he's top 50, that's just you moving the goal posts when I said he could be a perenial 2/3 round pick, which is an amazing outcome for a dynasty. Sure there are better outcomes, but int he leagues I play in I'd love to have a guy like that for a decade. 

 

He could be the #1 player, but likely not, because that's a crazy high bar for anyone.  The expectations for the #1 prospect are always high, and basically every one is considered a generational prospect at the time, and besides Acuna/Trout, I'm struggling to think of one that actual reached #1 actual player any time recently.  Acuna's rise was meteoric too, he was #1 prospect for not that long.

 

Many of us play in leagues with minor league farms that are separate form MLB, so having Wander Franco doesn't take up anyone's spot, he's the ideal person to have in that slot. If you're playing in a shallow yahoo league where he's clogging a spot, then sure, I do see some more incentive to trade him sooner. The idea of being top player or bust is extreme and almost to the point where it's not worth talking about any prospect if thats the strategy for the specific league you play in.

 

To be fair I just said that I'd be happy with any prospect becoming a top 50 player. lol I think Franco should be at least little better than that, though. If he's taken in the first 3 rounds than he's a top 40 player, at least. There's not a huge difference between top 40 and either top 50 or top 25.

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8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'll say it again, if you can trade him for someone who you think could be the top player in baseball and you don't think Franco can, you should do that trade. I'm not sure Acuna, Trout, or Yelich is available for Franco straight up in a Dynatsy League. After those 3, how many are generational talents that are the top players in baseball? Maybe another 1-2 guys?  I don't think you should turn down a trade of Franco for those 3, instead of talking in the abstract, list actual names of guys you want. Lindor, Soto, and Betts are probably safe betts to take over prospect.  Then you run into a lot of guys who are elite now but. have quite a bit of risk to remian elite multiple years when you compare them to Franco's age multiplier for dynasty

 

Nobody said they'd be happy if he's top 50, that's just you moving the goal posts when I said he could be a perenial 2/3 round pick, which is an amazing outcome for a dynasty. Sure there are better outcomes, but int he leagues I play in I'd love to have a guy like that for a decade. I did a dynasty startup auction in like 2011, and Freddie Freeman was my top $$ player that I purchased (you just got the player forever, their price didnt matter after auction). Freeman has never been a top 5 player, I'm not sure if he was even top 10, and I still think that was a great pick that was a core part of me winning multiple championships. If you're lucky enough to get a Trout or Acuna in a competitive dynasty league, you still need the guys with them to compete for a title. If you can't have one of the 2/3 best players in baseball on your dynasty team, and by definition no more than 2/3 teams can, then you need more guys between 4-25 or even 50. If Franco is one of them, thats great.  I play in leagues that are 15, 20, 30 teams.  Yes, I want Trout/Acuna in every one of them, but unless you were their first or pay a ton, you can't get them and need a core of great players.  Wander Franco absolutely has the upside to still be a #1 player, but if he's the 25th best player for 5-10 years, I'm pretty happy with that outcome.

 

He could be the #1 player, but likely not, because that's a crazy high bar for anyone.  The expectations for the #1 prospect are always high, and basically every one is considered a generational prospect at the time, and besides Acuna/Trout, I'm struggling to think of one that actual reached #1 actual player any time recently.  Acuna's rise was meteoric too, he was #1 prospect for not that long.

 

Many of us play in leagues with minor league farms that are separate form MLB, so having Wander Franco doesn't take up anyone's spot, he's the ideal person to have in that slot. If you're playing in a shallow yahoo league where he's clogging a spot, then sure, I do see some more incentive to trade him sooner. The idea of being top player or bust is extreme and almost to the point where it's not worth talking about any prospect if thats the strategy for the specific league you play in.

 

I never said anything about getting a top 3 player for him. I was talking about people valuing him as a .300 / 25HR / 180R+RBI guy which is going to result in a top 25-50 fantasy player. I made that leap on my own. I’m pretty sure you agree with me that he is elite and that those expectations are too low for him. That’s really all I’m saying. My point is that if someone sees him as not going to be elite, then you should trade him while his value is as high as it will ever be - under that thinking. 

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