Letitbe793

Wander Franco, SS, TB

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I never said anything about getting a top 3 player for him. I was talking about people valuing him as a .300 / 25HR / 180R+RBI guy which is going to result in a top 25-50 fantasy player. I made that leap on my own. I’m pretty sure you agree with me that he is elite and that those expectations are too low for him. That’s really all I’m saying. My point is that if someone sees him as not going to be elite, then you should trade him while his value is as high as it will ever be - under that thinking. 

 

11 minutes ago, dan said:

To be fair I just said that I'd be happy with any prospect becoming a top 50 player. lol I think Franco should be at least little better than that, though. If he's taken in the first 3 rounds than he's a top 40 player, at least. There's not a huge difference between top 40 and either top 50 or top 25.

 

Getting into the top 50 for one year isn't so daunting. Guys like Mancini, Escobar, and Yuli Gurriel all did it last year. If Franco's peak was one year of those guys last year, that's obviously a disappointment, but if he can produce what those guys did last year, but for 5-10 years, I think you are greatly underestimating the value in that. And again, I think he has the upside to still be super duper elite. Even with guys like Trout or Acuna, nobody was anywhere near 100% that they would be the #1 player that quickly.  Trout was undrafted in many leagues in the first season he was going to play a lot of games in (2012), and Acuna was closer to pick 100 if I recall. So if we couldn't be 100% sure on those guys being so elite so quick, it's not abnormal to not be ALL IN on Wander Franco or anyone being that good so quick.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Getting into the top 50 for one year isn't so daunting. Guys like Mancini, Escobar, and Yuli Gurriel all did it last year. If Franco's peak was one year of those guys last year, that's obviously a disappointment, but if he can produce what those guys did last year, but for 5-10 years, I think you are greatly underestimating the value in that.

Yep

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I remember waiting to see what another team would do in one of my dynasty leagues because I was pretty sure we were interested in the top shortstops. He took Profar right before me so I took Machado.

There are countless cases of top prospects that either bust or don't quite match their hype. The hype can get overdone sometimes.

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3 hours ago, dan said:

Ok, now take those 22 players, adjust for a higher avg, and enough homers and steals and 22 players drops to only 1 or 2. 

200+ runs/rbi would be more realistic if he can make changes to maximize his power potential. But, if he doesn't and only has 180+ runs/rbi (which is a lot for a shortstop) he would still be plenty valuable.

 

We are talking about Runs+RBI. With Franco's combination of bat skills and OBP, he should be a run producing machine even if he "only" hits 25 HRs.

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7 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

We are talking about Runs+RBI. With Franco's combination of bat skills and OBP, he should be a run producing machine even if he "only" hits 25 HRs.

Yeah, we were talking about runs/rbi . . . and just how good he'll be in the majors. The rest is relevant to the latter.

Maybe he will be a 200+ runs/rbi guy. I'm just not counting on it.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, dan said:

 

Maybe he will be a 200+ runs/rbi guy. I'm just not counting on it.

 

I agree you can't count on him doing that regularly or even once. Same as any prospect ever. 

 

If I had to truthfully  say which prospect in the last 10 years  I thought would be the biggest shoe in for 100/100 in a season, it probably would have been Bryce Harper, who has done it once and not even in his MVP year.  

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, dan said:

Yeah, we were talking about runs/rbi . . . and just how good he'll be in the majors. The rest is relevant to the latter.

Maybe he will be a 200+ runs/rbi guy. I'm just not counting on it.

 

200 runs/rbi is realistic if he continues on this projection. His average has elite potential. His run production (scoring, driving in) has elite potential. His power projects to be good. His speed projects to be okay.

 

You said his ceiling was 180. Franco seems like a pretty ideal #2 hitter. If he's hitting .320 (the number you gave) with 25 HRs and 15 SB from the 2 hole, combined with his OBP, 180 is a low ceiling.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I agree you can't count on him doing that regularly or even once. Same as any prospect ever. 

 

If I had to truthfully  say which prospect in the last 10 years  I thought would be the biggest shoe in for 100/100 in a season, it probably would have been Bryce Harper, who has done it once and not even in his MVP year.  

 

The difference is we are talking about ceilings, not shoe-ins. He put 180 R+RBI as Franco's ceiling.

 

Nobody is a "shoe in" for 200 R+RBI.

 

People do have ceilings of 200 R+RBI.

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2 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

200 runs/rbi is realistic if he continues on this projection. His average has elite potential. His run production (scoring, driving in) has elite potential. His power projects to be good. His speed projects to be okay.

 

You said his ceiling was 180. Franco seems like a pretty ideal #2 hitter. If he's hitting .320 (the number you gave) with 25 HRs and 15 SB from the 2 hole, combined with his OBP, 180 is a low ceiling.

This is a lot of posts about 200+ runs/rbi vs 180+ runs/rbi. Maybe he'll have 195. Who knows. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

The difference is we are talking about ceilings, not shoe-ins. He put 180 R+RBI as Franco's ceiling.

 

Nobody is a "shoe in" for 200 R+RBI.

 

People do have ceilings of 200 R+RBI.

 

 

5 minutes ago, dan said:

This is a lot of posts about 200+ runs/rbi vs 180+ runs/rbi. Maybe he'll have 195. Who knows. 

 

Yeah I absolutely disagree 180 is his ceiling. Trey Mancini had 203 last year. Eduardo Escobar is 212. If youre a really good  hitter in the middle of even an average lineup and stay healthy for a year, you can do that. Longoria did it twice in TB.

 

Sorry, but the fact that we are even valuing RBI/Runs for prospects is a big swing and the miss here in general. It really shows a lack of analysis. Power, speed, hit tool, sure those are important to discuss, even defense. But boiling things down to a stat determined by players around a player and not the actual player is really discussing the wrong thing.

 

If Wander Franco's power develops and accompanies his elite hit tool, there's no question he's capable of 200+ RBI/Runs in a season.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

The difference is we are talking about ceilings, not shoe-ins. He put 180 R+RBI as Franco's ceiling.

 

Nobody is a "shoe in" for 200 R+RBI.

 

People do have ceilings of 200 R+RBI.

I'm talking about REALISTIC ceilings.

If you want we can say he'll be a player that hits .340+ every year with around 35 homers, around 30 steals, and 240+ runs/rbi. 

Again, this is a lot of posts about 180+ runs/rbi vs 200+ runs/rbi. Either way he's should be plenty valuable. But, whatever.

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8 minutes ago, dan said:

I'm talking about REALISTIC ceilings.

If you want we can say he'll be a player that hits .340+ every year with around 35 homers, around 30 steals, and 240+ runs/rbi. 

Again, this is a lot of posts about 180+ runs/rbi vs 200+ runs/rbi. Either way he's should be plenty valuable. But, whatever.

 

200 is absolutely a realistic ceiling. Franco is one of the best hitting prospects of the last decade. 22 players hit 200 RBI+R last season. Calling 200 for Franco an unrealistic season is really weird.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

Yeah I absolutely disagree 180 is his ceiling. Trey Mancini had 203 last year. Eduardo Escobar is 212. If youre a really good  hitter in the middle of even an average lineup and stay healthy for a year, you can do that.

 

Sorry, but the fact that we are even valuing RBI/Runs for prospects is a big swing and the miss here in general. It really shows a lack of analysis. Power, speed, hit tool, sure those are important to discuss, even defense. But boiling things down to a stat determined by players around a player and not the actual player is really discussing the wrong thing.

 

If Wander Franco's power develops and accompanies his elite hit tool, there's no question he's capable of 200+ RBI/Runs in a season.

 

The fact that there's so many posts about 180+ runs/rbi vs 200+ runs/rbi is what's odd to me. Everyone has an opinion. I stated my opinion of a REALISTIC ceiling that I have for Franco. If someone wants to make a big deal about it, that's up to them. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll find out. IF his power develops. People are acting like it's a done deal. Someone else posted about how he might have to make changes to maximize all of his power potential and that's possible but far from a sure thing. People are acting like it IS a sure thing. That's up to whoever. Doesn't matter to me. Again, I don't own him. IF I did I'd definitely listen to offers because I think some might overpay for him. 

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2 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

200 is absolutely a realistic ceiling. Franco is one of the best hitting prospects of the last decade. 22 players hit 200 RBI+R last season. Calling 200 for Franco an unrealistic season is really weird.

I think 200 might be asking for too much. You think I'm wrong. That's fine.

Guys, think whatever you want. But, AGAIN, this is a LOT of posts about 180+ runs/rbi vs 200 runs/rbi. 

Maybe all of this social distancing is affecting people in strange ways. I don't know. 

Aren't people allowed to have different opinions??? 

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18 minutes ago, dan said:

I think 200 might be asking for too much. You think I'm wrong. That's fine.

Guys, think whatever you want. But, AGAIN, this is a LOT of posts about 180+ runs/rbi vs 200 runs/rbi. 

Maybe all of this social distancing is affecting people in strange ways. I don't know. 

Aren't people allowed to have different opinions??? 

 

This forum is for discussing different opinions. If you post something that I disagree with, I'll point that out. If you are going to say that the #1 prospect in baseball cracking the top 22 in runs+RBI is unrealistic, then I'm going to let you know I disagree. Sorry if that bothers you.

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Without even looking, I think most top 100 hitting prospects who arent void of power are all capable of having a 200 rbi/run season if they hit their ceilings. It's a bad stat and achieving 200 isn't monumental. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

This forum is for discussing different opinions. If you post something that I disagree with, I'll point that out. If you are going to say that the #1 prospect in baseball cracking the top 22 in runs+RBI is unrealistic, then I'm going to let you know I disagree. Sorry if that bothers you.

I've got no problem with that. I'd like to know the opinion of you and anyone else regarding anything related to baseball. That's why I've been coming to these forums for around 10 years now. But, how many times did you do that? I stated my opinion and you stated yours. THAT'S fine. But, why are there so many posts in this thread today about the same thing? My expectations of Franco in only two stats (runs/rbi) which are only slightly more modest. You, and others, disagree. That's fine. Time to move on, already

Edited by dan

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On 4/19/2020 at 11:46 AM, dan said:

I've got no problem with that. I'd like to know the opinion of you and anyone else regarding anything related to baseball. That's why I've been coming to these forums for around 10 years now. But, how many times did you do that? I stated my opinion and you stated yours. THAT'S fine. But, why are there so many posts in this thread today about the same thing? My expectations of Franco in only two stats (runs/rbi) which are only slightly more modest. You, and others, disagree. That's fine. Time to move on, already

Those stats will be highly dependent on his spot in the order when he comes up too. If he’s leading off he won’t get 200 runs/rbis. He’d need about 140 runs to reach that point in that case. Now if he’s batting 3rd he has an excellent chance. Most likely that won’t be the case unless he has a power spike. 

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On 4/27/2020 at 11:11 PM, daynlokki said:

Those stats will be highly dependent on his spot in the order when he comes up too. If he’s leading off he won’t get 200 runs/rbis. He’d need about 140 runs to reach that point in that case. Now if he’s batting 3rd he has an excellent chance. Most likely that won’t be the case unless he has a power spike. 

 

This started with him saying Franco's ceiling was 180 R+RBI (not 200). His upside/ceiling, like you say, is a #2 or #3 hitter in on what could be a good AL East team.

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With expanded rosters and a taxi squad, and minors likely not happening, any thoughts on Wander in 2020 MLB?

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On 4/30/2020 at 4:11 AM, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

This started with him saying Franco's ceiling was 180 R+RBI (not 200). His upside/ceiling, like you say, is a #2 or #3 hitter in on what could be a good AL East team.

You're missing a +

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Is his value to points leagues substantially less? Part of why I was concerned about the 180+ thing is that it affects his value in points leagues if he’s going to be a high average, 20-25HR, 10SB, 100R, 80RBI guy.  In today’s game that’s not going to make a points league superstar. It might be a solid top 5 SS, but not the next Soto or Trout type. In the context of points dynasty leagues, is he a guy to consider selling on the hype?

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1 hour ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Is his value to points leagues substantially less? Part of why I was concerned about the 180+ thing is that it affects his value in points leagues if he’s going to be a high average, 20-25HR, 10SB, 100R, 80RBI guy.  In today’s game that’s not going to make a points league superstar. It might be a solid top 5 SS, but not the next Soto or Trout type. In the context of points dynasty leagues, is he a guy to consider selling on the hype?

If you factor in a high BB% and low K%, Wander gets a nice boost in points leagues. The BBs and Ks would have zero impact in a traditional 5 x 5. 

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On 4/30/2020 at 9:41 PM, thefamily79 said:

With expanded rosters and a taxi squad, and minors likely not happening, any thoughts on Wander in 2020 MLB?

I think it would improve his chances of making his debut this year. Franco on the roster gives the Ray's a better chance at winning a championship this season. The Ray's are in the little window of time where they can compete. 

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