jtbgator

2018 Draft Strategy

Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

the complete opposite imo

 

maybe the RB class is deeper than before (and that's what I'm focused on), but not as deep as WR.

 

nonetheless, auction strategy very different and in PPR I like to pay most for 2 top tier WR. Last year drafted AB/Nuk (cost about 40% of my $ cap), and proceeded to win the league. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kidsgotsoul said:

Offensive passing numbers were down across the board last year as opposed to the last few years (AB was a consensus 1.01 pick before this year). Lower passing numbers in 2017 = more RBs as top scorers in fantasy last year. Less true workhorse RBs in the league now than ever.

 

People perceive the RB position as being extremely thin this year because of those factors leading to a lot of overreaction that everyone "needs" to go after RBs aggressively early in the draft. As such, there's also probably some overconfidence in a lot of mid-round WRs that will outperform their ADPs.

 

Personally I think 2018 passing numbers bounce back in a big way and the people reaching in the first few rounds for RBs over WRs are going to regret it when they're getting killed by receivers this year. 

 

Ok I'm not the only one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/20/2018 at 3:09 PM, lolcopter said:

 

McCaffrey, McKinnon and Mixon RARELY make it out of the 2nd. You can’t realistically bank of any of them being there.

 

On 8/20/2018 at 3:12 PM, atrium said:

I take it you don't draft on Yahoo? They are almost always there in the 3rd round for me.

 

ADP's:

McCaffrey - 28.1

McKinnon - 30.0

Mixon - 38.2

 

I've gotten Mixon in the 4th round a couple of times. Not sure where you're getting your ADPs from.

 

wow, I take it back. you weren't joking about ADP. I just did some mocks on ESPN and their rankings are WAY different than FFC. here are some obvious discrepancies on a few of the guys I typically target

 

Howard FFC -- 15 overall

Howard ESPN -- 30 overall

 

Sanders FFC -- 86 

Sanders ESPN -- 69

 

Collins FFC -- 30 (never even a target!)

Collins ESPN -- 56

 

anyway, I'm gonna have to back and cross reference these two lists to see where changes could be made. Sanders going so much earlier kinda threw me at first, and QBs tend to go way later too.

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

http://games.espn.com/ffl/livedraftresults?position=ALL

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kidsgotsoul said:

Offensive passing numbers were down across the board last year as opposed to the last few years (AB was a consensus 1.01 pick before this year). Lower passing numbers in 2017 = more RBs as top scorers in fantasy last year. Less true workhorse RBs in the league now than ever.

 

People perceive the RB position as being extremely thin this year because of those factors leading to a lot of overreaction that everyone "needs" to go after RBs aggressively early in the draft. As such, there's also probably some overconfidence in a lot of mid-round WRs that will outperform their ADPs.

 

Personally I think 2018 passing numbers bounce back in a big way and the people reaching in the first few rounds for RBs over WRs are going to regret it when they're getting killed by receivers this year. 

 

 

I think it's not so much thinking rb is thin, rather noticing the greater disparity between the elite RB1s and the others in comparison to the disparity between the elite WR1s and lower tierd guys.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hear people in here saying that you can't win if you don't take chances. That's garbage. Draft smart and stick to your board. Leagues are won and lost on the waiver wire or free agency. 

 

Once you have a solid roster it's all about picking the best matchups for your players week to week. If you can't do that it doesn't matter how good your team is on paper.

Edited by South Carolina
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got the 9th pick of a 12 team ppr, and I feel like if I don't get a rb first round then I'm rolling the dice that cook or fournette will be there because cook is the last rb I feel comfortable taking in the first 2 rounds. I like my team best when I go Melvin first then pick from devante Keenan or cook in the second. Have you guys with a late pick been doing the same?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kidsgotsoul said:

Offensive passing numbers were down across the board last year as opposed to the last few years (AB was a consensus 1.01 pick before this year). Lower passing numbers in 2017 = more RBs as top scorers in fantasy last year. Less true workhorse RBs in the league now than ever.

 

People perceive the RB position as being extremely thin this year because of those factors leading to a lot of overreaction that everyone "needs" to go after RBs aggressively early in the draft. As such, there's also probably some overconfidence in a lot of mid-round WRs that will outperform their ADPs.

 

Personally I think 2018 passing numbers bounce back in a big way and the people reaching in the first few rounds for RBs over WRs are going to regret it when they're getting killed by receivers this year. 

 

Great points. I believe this as well especially in PPR. I'm going to use my new favorite fantasy term and say that I think that 2018 will mark a "positive regression" of passing and receiving numbers.

 

I know about 24 hours ago I was talking RB-RB-RB as a strategy, but now I'm leaning to 3 of my first 4 picks including the first two/three going to WR.

 

I'm drafting from 7 and 8, so obviously, strategy will differ for teams drafting earlier. Hell if Barkley drops to me, I'm picking him every time and I will adjust accordingly. But the way I see it, I refuse to reach for guys like Gordon, Hunt and Fournette in the first round with Hopkins and OBJ on the board. I just can't bring myself on passing up on one of these WR's who realistically could be the overall #1 WR in 2018.

 

Based on mocks, I'm fully expecting owners to go heavy RB in the first two rounds and I've had Thomas and Allen drop to me at 2.05.

 

Based on rounds RB's available in rounds 3 and 4, personally, they all fall in the same tier, so I wouldn't mind waiting until round 4 for a RB and take another WR in round 3.

 

I've done mocks going RB heavy as well as WR heavy and I will say this, you can make both work IF you commit to the opposite position in rounds 5-10 and skip QB and TE unless someone really drops at one of those positions and gives good value. Most teams like to round out their teams with a QB and TE in the mid-rounds and while they are doing that you could be loading up on WR/RB and making up that difference.

 

I think @lolcopter said it earlier about how he rosters just 3-4 WR's. This actually worked for me last year in two leagues. You start off with Hopkins/OBJ, Thomas/Allen and Tyreek and throw in a mid-round pick for a Cobb and you are set. Hell, if the immortal Josh freakin Gordon drops enough into the mid-rounds, I'll make him my 4th WR LMAO. You can just stack your roster with possible breakout runners like Kerryon, Peyton Barber, Carson, Crowell, Mack, Hyde etc hoping that 1-2 pan out wit that RB that you took in round 3/4.

Edited by nonstopfan
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jay2491 said:

I got the 9th pick of a 12 team ppr, and I feel like if I don't get a rb first round then I'm rolling the dice that cook or fournette will be there because cook is the last rb I feel comfortable taking in the first 2 rounds. I like my team best when I go Melvin first then pick from devante Keenan or cook in the second. Have you guys with a late pick been doing the same?

 

It's possible Fournette falls to 9. If so you grab him immediately. I feel like Cook would be settling. At that point do you just draft the highest rated WR and get a RB on the turn?  It's a tough position. I'm drafting 12 out of 12 so I'm in a similar position but I like having back to back picks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

 

wow, I take it back. you weren't joking about ADP. I just did some mocks on ESPN and their rankings are WAY different than FFC. here are some obvious discrepancies on a few of the guys I typically target

 

Howard FFC -- 15 overall

Howard ESPN -- 30 overall

 

Sanders FFC -- 86 

Sanders ESPN -- 69

 

Collins FFC -- 30 (never even a target!)

Collins ESPN -- 56

 

anyway, I'm gonna have to back and cross reference these two lists to see where changes could be made. Sanders going so much earlier kinda threw me at first, and QBs tend to go way later too.

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

http://games.espn.com/ffl/livedraftresults?position=ALL

 

I've been mocking like crazy on Yahoo, and the guys i listed reliably go in the 30s-40s every single time. FFC probably biases towards more experienced fantasy football players though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

I hear people in here saying that you can't win if you don't take chances. That's garbage. Draft smart and stick to your board. Leagues are won and lost on the waiver wire or free agency.

I agree with what you said by draft smart and stick to your board .  The most important part of what you said is YOUR.  Your board may look a lot different form the so called experts.  for instance you may peg a guy this year like Marquise Goodwin as someone you think will be a top 15 WR based on his situation.  the glowing reviews out of camp and his obvious rapport with Jimmy GQ.  Meanwhile ESPN has him ranked 37 in their ppr rankings.  This is what taking chances is all about.  If I see a guy as being way more valuable than the consensus, then a lot of people would say I'm taking a chance on that guy if I draft him way higher than what most believe him to be worth.  I've nabbed a lot of star players over the years by taking guys 2 rounds earlier than what most would expect them to be taken.  Even though some would say I'm taking a chance on the guy, I am still sticking with my draft board and the way I see things. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

I hear people in here saying that you can't win if you don't take chances. That's garbage. Draft smart and stick to your board. Leagues are won and lost on the waiver wire or free agency. 

 

Once you have a solid roster it's all about picking the best matchups for your players week to week. If you can't do that it doesn't matter how good your team is on paper.

Correct

 

Damn right you need to take chances and fantasy (H2H) football is all about getting lucky. One week your team scores 150+ points the next week the same lineup could net 50+ 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, atrium said:

 

I've been mocking like crazy on Yahoo, and the guys i listed reliably go in the 30s-40s every single time. FFC probably biases towards more experienced fantasy football players though.

 

Yeah I feel like I'm stealing RBs on ESPN compared to FFC. I'll have to take a closer look at the ADP differences and balance my board out

Edited by lolcopter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, South Carolina said:

I hear people in here saying that you can't win if you don't take chances. That's garbage. Draft smart and stick to your board. Leagues are won and lost on the waiver wire or free agency. 

 

Good post. Leagues are 100% won in mid season management, FA adds, trades. I know CSB, but I placed 2nd last year. Some of my mid season moves included:

 

FA add in week 1 - Kamara

FA add in week 2 - Jags D

FA add in week 3 - Engram

Traded for Thielen early (gave Sproles straight up to RB needy team)

FA add (can’t recall when) - Hogan

Dropping Pryor (disaster)

 

Moral of the story: Just do your best on draft day. Take the best player and don’t over analyze. ?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

It really doesn’t matter.   There’s maybe ONE impact rb per round after the first 2.    It’s all well and good to name late round/ww rb studs-  but the odds are terrible.   EVERYONE chases them regardless of roster makeup.   You think the guy who goes rb, rb WONT take a few stabs in the mid rounds?   

 

 

7 of the top 10 rbs came from the first 2 rounds

 

But only 2 of the top 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a 1 PPR league where you must start 3 WR's, 2 RB's, and 1 WR/RB flex, how much if any do you prioritize drafting WR's higher than usual? I think this fits into draft strategy...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know it's easier said then done but just stay flexible and look for value based on your league settings. Don't get locked into any specific RB-RB, WR-WR-WR, etc  strategy. Ideally I would like to get 2 RB in the first 3 rounds but if I get 12th pick and RBs fly off the board I'd rather go OBJ/MT, etc then reach on someone like Mixon at the 1st/2nd turn

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TommyKramer said:

I agree with what you said by draft smart and stick to your board .  The most important part of what you said is YOUR.  Your board may look a lot different form the so called experts.  for instance you may peg a guy this year like Marquise Goodwin as someone you think will be a top 15 WR based on his situation.  the glowing reviews out of camp and his obvious rapport with Jimmy GQ.  Meanwhile ESPN has him ranked 37 in their ppr rankings.  This is what taking chances is all about.  If I see a guy as being way more valuable than the consensus, then a lot of people would say I'm taking a chance on that guy if I draft him way higher than what most believe him to be worth.  I've nabbed a lot of star players over the years by taking guys 2 rounds earlier than what most would expect them to be taken.  Even though some would say I'm taking a chance on the guy, I am still sticking with my draft board and the way I see things. 

 

I like the advice on taking the guys you like earlier. I’ve gotten cute before thinking the player I like will drop back to me on the turn and he’s doesnt... instead of reaching 1-2 rounds earlier. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, South Carolina said:

I hear people in here saying that you can't win if you don't take chances. That's garbage. Draft smart and stick to your board. Leagues are won and lost on the waiver wire or free agency. 

 

Once you have a solid roster it's all about picking the best matchups for your players week to week. If you can't do that it doesn't matter how good your team is on paper.

You're right it definitely can be won or lost from the wire, but that means taking those extra chances are doable 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, vthokie3 said:

I know it's easier said then done but just stay flexible and look for value based on your league settings. Don't get locked into any specific RB-RB, WR-WR-WR, etc  strategy. Ideally I would like to get 2 RB in the first 3 rounds but if I get 12th pick and RBs fly off the board I'd rather go OBJ/MT, etc then reach on someone like Mixon at the 1st/2nd turn

 

That's where I'm drafting--the 12th pick.  I've been looking at different scenarios and there is a good chance I may start my team off by taking 2WRs.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

I like the advice on taking the guys you like earlier. I’ve gotten cute before thinking the player I like will drop back to me on the turn and he’s doesnt... instead of reaching 1-2 rounds earlier. 

 

this is especially true when selecting from either elbow ... waiting some 20+ picks to come back to you is as big a hop in the arse as this lil' hobby allows - necessitates reaching much more than one would like, but, necessitates, nonetheless.  

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

That's where I'm drafting--the 12th pick.  I've been looking at different scenarios and there is a good chance I may start my team off by taking 2WRs.  

Yeah I think if you play in a league that is phobic to missing RB's in the first round, starting at OBJ and Julio at the turn makes the decision for you

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

That's where I'm drafting--the 12th pick.  I've been looking at different scenarios and there is a good chance I may start my team off by taking 2WRs.  

 

Im drafting 12 as well. I'd love for Fournette to drop in my lap but not counting on it. I like being on the turn though. Depending on what's there I should do well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was mentioned a couple pages back but I'm very intrigued with the idea of going RB heavy in the first 3 rounds. I'm picking 11th in a 12 team standard and my keeper is Diggs (6th). I have done a couple mocks and if possible I think I would pull the trigger with Hunt/Gordon/Fournette/Cook/Freeman in the first two and possibly Collins in the third (for flex). Then obviously hammer the WR for the next couple rounds...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...