NYR Fan 116894

Quincy Enunwa 2018 Outlook

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How we feeling against Denver and Chris Harris? Denver might be gassed and crossing all the way to NYJ makes me feel NYJ could be a sleeper upset.

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If he can get 10 PPR points against JAX, I won't be benching him until further notice.

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His floor is relatively high but his ceiling is also low when there’s a tough matchup, simple because Darnold and the Jets won’t be scoring many points. I wouldn’t mind having him in my lineup but I’ll be rolling out options like Boyd instead.

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Great floor, great target share but what ceiling does he have? His floor has been higher than even some WR1s but he has yet to eclipse 100 yards and has only 1 TD.

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16 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

Great floor, great target share but what ceiling does he have? His floor has been higher than even some WR1s but he has yet to eclipse 100 yards and has only 1 TD.

To me he's a bye week filler guy or a guy you put in if you set your lineup for high floor. 

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11 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

To me he's a bye week filler guy or a guy you put in if you set your lineup for high floor. 

 

I think this is spot on. He is a WR4 in 12-team leagues and he should be 100% owned imo. Bye-week filler as mentioned plus matchup-dependent WR2 w/WR1 upside.

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43 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

To me he's a bye week filler guy or a guy you put in if you set your lineup for high floor. 

 

31 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

I think this is spot on. He is a WR4 in 12-team leagues and he should be 100% owned imo. Bye-week filler as mentioned plus matchup-dependent WR2 w/WR1 upside.

 

He's WR35 so far this year in PPR, and that's with only 1 TD, and having one of his four games vs JAX defense. With a low of basically 10 fantasy points. 

 

How does this translate to a WR4 in 12 team leagues? He's producing WR3 numbers, with his arrow pointing up with easier matchups, and hopefully a bit of growth from Darnold as the season progresses, and some more TD luck / regularity. 

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I still think he finishes WR20-24. The target share itself would do it. And you would think he will score a TD by accident somehow. 

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3 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

There's your difference. I only play standard.

 

He's WR35 in Standard scoring as well (just verified). So yeah, no difference. 

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3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

He's WR35 in Standard scoring as well (just verified). So yeah, no difference. 

 

He's a WR4. Start him every week here on out and get back to me then. 

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Just now, SuperJoint said:

 

He's a WR4. Start him every week here on out and get back to me then. 

 

So he's just one of those WR4's that puts up WR3 numbers in both scoring formats and put up a solid floor even against the league's best pass defense? Gotcha

 

Just to add some more factual data, he's the 16th-most targeted WR in the league. Unless his catch rate is 20%, it's going to be pretty tough to get the 16th most targets and somehow finish at WR37-48. 

 

And I will play him every week just as I have been, thanks. 

 

 

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His ceiling in any game is likely 7-100-1 unless Darnold really improves during the season.

 

Right now OBJ is the WR36 in standard and Enunwa is the WR39.  So does that mean OBJ is a fringe WR3 whereas Enunwa is a high-end WR4?  Of course not — those numbers are skewed by small sample sizes at this stage, which is why Calvin Ridley is currently the overall WR1 and yet should still be valued as an upside WR3.

 

The way Darnold’s been looking, I don’t think Enunwa’s targets are of high enough quality to rank him as a WR3.  If Drew Brees is throwing often enough to any guy off the street, we can reasonably assume he’ll catch some touchdowns.  Darnold only seems to throw horizontally and many of Enunwa’s targets are uncatchable and out of bounds. We may see some positive TD regression for Enunwa, but it wouldn’t shock me if his current pace is right on the money and he only scores 4 TDs all season.

 

Im glad I have this guy for the upcoming bye week crunches but the lack of ceiling and Darnold’s rapid falloff after Week 1 don’t have me too excited about starting Enunwa anytime soon. I am looking forward to that cake schedule in the second half of the season though.

Edited by eg4190
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5 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

His ceiling in any game is likely 7-100-1 unless Darnold really improves during the season.

 

Right now OBJ is the WR36 in standard and Enunwa is the WR39.  So does that mean OBJ is a fringe WR3 whereas Enunwa is a high-end WR4?  Of course not — those numbers are skewed by small sample sizes at this stage, which is why Calvin Ridley is currently the overall WR1 and yet should still be valued as an upside WR3.

 

The way Darnold’s been looking, I don’t think Enunwa’s targets are of high enough quality to rank him as a WR3.  If Drew Brees is throwing often enough to any guy off the street, we can reasonably assume he’ll catch some touchdowns.  Darnold only seems to throw horizontally and many of Enunwa’s targets are uncatchable and out of bounds. We may see some positive TD regression for Enunwa, but it wouldn’t shock me if his current pace is right on the money and he only scores 4 TDs all season.

 

Im glad I have this guy for the upcoming bye week crunches but the lack of ceiling and Darnold’s rapid falloff after Week 1 don’t have me too excited about starting Enunwa anytime soon. I am looking forward to that cake schedule in the second half of the season though.

Enunwa’s a solid receiver WR3 for sure but you lost me calling Ridley a WR3 with upside that’s just wrong 

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25 minutes ago, kco734 said:

Enunwa’s a solid receiver WR3 for sure but you lost me calling Ridley a WR3 with upside that’s just wrong 

 

He’s got 15 catches and 6 TDs.  That’s obviously not sustainable and there are bust games coming.

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3 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

 

He’s got 15 catches and 6 TDs.  That’s obviously not sustainable and there are bust games coming.

All 15 over the last 3 weeks, would translate to 80 over 16 games. Week 1 is minimizing how involved he really is now 

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2 hours ago, Ace_King said:

Great floor, great target share but what ceiling does he have? His floor has been higher than even some WR1s but he has yet to eclipse 100 yards and has only 1 TD.

 

Looks like Enunwa is due. :D

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Bottom line is he’s a safe WR due to volume but won’t reach elite numbers due in part to the offense. Let’s say 8 targets/game which I think is the low end, that’s 128 for the year (top 15 in targets based on last year) and with that he should crack the top 24 certainly top 36 in WR points regardless of format.

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I like him a lot. Think he's a WR3 ROS with WR2 upside. With that said, I think this week might be tough for him because of gameflow. Broncos might try to bleed the clock like they did with KC and it doesn't seem like they have a lot of faith with Keenum. I'd leave him on the bench this week. 

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8 hours ago, eg4190 said:

His ceiling in any game is likely 7-100-1 unless Darnold really improves during the season.

 

Right now OBJ is the WR36 in standard and Enunwa is the WR39.  So does that mean OBJ is a fringe WR3 whereas Enunwa is a high-end WR4?  Of course not — those numbers are skewed by small sample sizes at this stage, which is why Calvin Ridley is currently the overall WR1 and yet should still be valued as an upside WR3.

 

The way Darnold’s been looking, I don’t think Enunwa’s targets are of high enough quality to rank him as a WR3.  If Drew Brees is throwing often enough to any guy off the street, we can reasonably assume he’ll catch some touchdowns.  Darnold only seems to throw horizontally and many of Enunwa’s targets are uncatchable and out of bounds. We may see some positive TD regression for Enunwa, but it wouldn’t shock me if his current pace is right on the money and he only scores 4 TDs all season.

 

Im glad I have this guy for the upcoming bye week crunches but the lack of ceiling and Darnold’s rapid falloff after Week 1 don’t have me too excited about starting Enunwa anytime soon. I am looking forward to that cake schedule in the second half of the season though.

 

I think a lot of this is conjecture and/or not really taking all of the information into account - would Enunwa be better with Brees throwing to him?  Of course.  But he's been producing as a WR3 with Darnold already, and the data suggests his targets aren't so bad.  For one thing, he has a 57% catch rate compared to his career catch rate of 53%, so it isn't as though the quality of targets must be that low.  There are also numerous WR's that have finished as WR1 or WR2 with a sub-60% catch rate - Hopkins, Julio Jones, AJ Green, DT all had sub-60% catch rates last year.  It's all about volume - Hopkins had 174 targets, Jones 148, AJG 143, DT 140 - and Enunwa is on pace for 148 through 4 games.  

 

The other impressive stat for Enunwa so far is his 149 YAC, which puts him 7th overall in the league and 2nd for a WR, only behind Juju.  He's not relying on Darnold threading a needle to him or giving him accurate deep bombs - he's taking short passes and using his skills and body to get extra yardage.  Just think what his numbers could look like if Darnold improves his accuracy on longer throws throughout the year.  

 

I'm not saying Enunwa is a WR1 or going to end the year on par with players like Hopkins and AJG, but what I am trying to say is that the targets are there, the YAC is huge, and there are plenty of data points to show that WR's can have great years with less than stellar QB's.  Enunwa is on pace for 84 receptions, 1112 yards, and 4 TDs, which would have made him WR16 last year in STD scoring.  And I don't see much of what he's doing as unsustainable - if anything Darnold should improve some over the year, they won't be playing the Jags every week, and 4 TD's would seem to be a pretty low projection.  

 

I won't even get into his ceiling being 7-100-1 too much, but the ceiling is realistically much higher for someone getting 9+ targets per game.  And each and every week there are players that smash their supposed ceiling - I'm sure nobody before last week would have said Cooper Kupp's ceiling was 162 yards and 2 TDs, or that Gabriel's ceiling 7-104-2 with his lack of size, role, and that schmuck Trubisky throwing to him.  I'm not saying it will happen, but a ceiling is the best possible outcome, and the best possible outcome would at least be him catching 9 of 9 passes at his 13.2 YPR for 118 yards, and that's even pretty weak.  

 

Also with his floor proving to be so high, he doesn't even need that high of a ceiling to finish as a WR2 or WR3 - he's already be a WR2 if he just keeps up the 60 yards per game he's doing right now.  If he maintains that floor and has one or two bigger games then that pushes his season total a lot higher.  

 

People can believe what they want to believe or play him or sit him, but all of the signs point to him being a lot better than a WR4, health permitted.  

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He put up good #s weeks 1 & 2 and just okay #s weeks 3 & 4. He's trending downward, mostly due to the sputtering Jets offense.  I think he's a solid hold with the hope the Jets offense improves. But I also don't think he's a must hold.  His floor is pretty good but greatly exaggerated imo.  While 4rec for 60yds which he's done for the past two games is decent enough, it's not anything to write home about.  

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He was dropped in my league as well. Enunwa has a corey davis like week coming with the amount of targets he's getting. Gonna go get him..

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