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Courtland Sutton 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Boo this man!!!!!!  :P

 

Spiteful would be trading him to the one of those dumpster fire NY teams

 

Denver did DT a favor... Watson >>>>>> Keenum

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Sutton's floor is this thread overtaking the Josh Gordon thread within two weeks.  His ceiling is unfathomable.

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21 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Boo this man!!!!!!  :P

 

Spiteful would be trading him to the one of those dumpster fire NY teams

 

i meant spiteful as in horse face saying: "AND GOTDAMNIT, MAKE SURE WE FEED THAT KID SUTTON 'TIL HE PUKES TOUCHDOWNS!!"

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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15 hours ago, Big Nate said:

For your viewing pleasure... and a reminder of what he can do.  He reminds me of a cross between Mike Evans and Alshon with a bit more speed.  In dynasty/keeper leagues this guys value is going to be huge next year - especially if they don't bring back Sanders.  Either way this guy is the future in Denver and I think he will eclipse DTs numbers in short order.

 

I could see this guy leading the league in receiving TDs in a year or two.

 

 

That's a lot of bad defense, to say nothing about the soundtrack.  I managed to grab him, and feel good about it, but this video showed a man among boys.  Some of his catches were awesome despite the bad D, but this video feels way overhyped vs what the competition is in the NFL.

Edited by ColKurtz

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5 hours ago, ColKurtz said:

That's a lot of bad defense, to say nothing about the soundtrack.  I managed to grab him, and feel good about it, but this video showed a man among boys.  Some of his catches were awesome despite the bad D, but this video feels way overhyped vs what the competition is in the NFL.

Very true and it is often the case with many college highlight videos. Which is why I focus on what the player did, positioning, is he aggressive, does he command the ball. Can he be a red zone threat and how do his skills transfer over to the NFL? 

 

My second video (Harris) shows him vs NFL defenders and he is still doing similar work.  Will be curious how things go when he is matched up 1 on 1 vs the top CBs.  I believe in this guy in dynasty/keeper leagues, which is why I'm excited about his opportunity, especially next year.  I try to watch film on all the rookie RBs and WRs coming out of college and this WR excited me the most.  As he builds up the trust of the QB they will start throwing him more 50/50 balls which he excels in.

 

And I'm holding back my excitement in these posts.....

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6 hours ago, ColKurtz said:

That's a lot of bad defense, to say nothing about the soundtrack.  I managed to grab him, and feel good about it, but this video showed a man among boys.  Some of his catches were awesome despite the bad D, but this video feels way overhyped vs what the competition is in the NFL.

 

I mean...it's a highlights video :)

 

They don't package together a bunch of randomly chosen plays. Hey, check out how well he decoyed on this trap! Every single time I watch a highlight reel, I come away thinking the guy is going to be the next Barry Moss (he played with Randy Sanders). Then I have to remind myself that every guy who makes the NFL has a great looking highlight reel.

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4 minutes ago, Brotherbock said:

 

I mean...it's a highlights video :)

 

They don't package together a bunch of randomly chosen plays. Hey, check out how well he decoyed on this trap! Every single time I watch a highlight reel, I come away thinking the guy is going to be the next Barry Moss (he played with Randy Sanders). Then I have to remind myself that every guy who makes the NFL has a great looking highlight reel.

This is true, especially for college RBs who all average 6ypc.  Then you realize the Ds they played against were poor and their O-line was phenomenal - where the RB wasn't touched until 5+ yards downfield on every run.  Have to look past the plays and decide, is this WR/RB making the plays himself or is the team making him look better than he is.

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12 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

This is true, especially for college RBs who all average 6ypc.  Then you realize the Ds they played against were poor and their O-line was phenomenal - where the RB wasn't touched until 5+ yards downfield on every run.  Have to look past the plays and decide, is this WR/RB making the plays himself or is the team making him look better than he is.

 

Agree. You can get something out of those videos, definitely. And the plays where Sutton was creating separation were the ones I liked in that vid, as opposed to the ones where he just mugged--legally--the DB on those jump balls. Pro DBs are less muggable :) But the moves he made to get open were sharp.

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Just now, Brotherbock said:

 

Agree. You can get something out of those videos, definitely. And the plays where Sutton was creating separation were the ones I liked in that vid, as opposed to the ones where he just mugged--legally--the DB on those jump balls. Pro DBs are less muggable :) But the moves he made to get open were sharp.

What surprised me the most was Sutton's long speed once he gets going. Even in the NFL he was able to get behind some CBs.  I think some of the CBs underestimate his speed due to his size.  My worry is that the QBs underthrow him at times.  The good thing is he will come back to the ball and isn't afraid of contact and he tracks the ball very well.

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1 minute ago, Brotherbock said:

 

Agree. You can get something out of those videos, definitely. And the plays where Sutton was creating separation were the ones I liked in that vid, as opposed to the ones where he just mugged--legally--the DB on those jump balls. Pro DBs are less muggable :) But the moves he made to get open were sharp.

Yeah you have to expect him to dominate against lower comp.    A man amongst boys- every single game.   Just catching open passes and running can be ignored.   

 

I attend a few days of Broncos camp every year with my dad-  and Courtland stopped dead in his tracks to sign an autograph and say hi.   Even said “yes sir” to the old man.   

 

Instant fans 

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Sutton is going to be garbage. . . .

 

 

 

time gold in my lineup!!!  :lol:

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

Yeah you have to expect him to dominate against lower comp.    A man amongst boys- every single game.   Just catching open passes and running can be ignored.   

 

I attend a few days of Broncos camp every year with my dad-  and Courtland stopped dead in his tracks to sign an autograph and say hi.   Even said “yes sir” to the old man.   

 

Instant fans 

 

now that's the kinda kid ya love having on yer magick foosball squad ... easy to root for (like Conner).

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

Yeah you have to expect him to dominate against lower comp.    A man amongst boys- every single game.   Just catching open passes and running can be ignored.   

 

I attend a few days of Broncos camp every year with my dad-  and Courtland stopped dead in his tracks to sign an autograph and say hi.   Even said “yes sir” to the old man.   

 

Instant fans 

 

That's cool :)  And actually useful for fantasy--all else equal, a guy who is well liked can end up doing better (if he's well liked by teammates too, coaches, etc). I honestly think a big part of Donald Driver's success was his personality. Same ability but a jerk, he wouldn't have made it as far as he did.

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24 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Yeah you have to expect him to dominate against lower comp.    A man amongst boys- every single game.   Just catching open passes and running can be ignored.   

 

I attend a few days of Broncos camp every year with my dad-  and Courtland stopped dead in his tracks to sign an autograph and say hi.   Even said “yes sir” to the old man.   

 

Instant fans 

 

This story doesn’t surprise me. In the couple interviews I’ve seen of him, he seems like a very smart and humble kid with a good head on his shoulders.

 

This isn’t a necessity for fantasy-relevance (see Beckham, Odell), nor a guarantee that he’ll succeed, but it certainly is a positive as a young player who will need to put in the focus and hard work to improve.

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1 minute ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

This story doesn’t surprise me. In the couple interviews I’ve seen of him, he seems like a very smart and humble kid with a good head on his shoulders.

 

This isn’t a necessity for fantasy-relevance (see Beckham, Odell), nor a guarantee that he’ll succeed, but it certainly is a positive as a young player who will need to put in the focus and hard work to improve.

 

But you do see Odell's attitude working against him. I think everyone kinda thinks that he could do even better if he wasn't such a head case. 

 

Randy Moss, right? Not a locker room distraction or a bad guy at all to hear his teammates talk, but he admittedly didn't take practice very seriously. Would Moss have been even better with Rice's work ethic? Same sort of situation.

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1 minute ago, SonataArctica said:

New owner. Just traded Amari Cooper for him. Let’s get this train rolling :o

Welcome aboard the train. Got on just at the right time.

 

I also traded Cooper for him but that was after Cooper went to the Boys and before DT was traded.  I believe Sutton outscores Cooper pretty easily ROS.  Having said that maybe the change of scenery is what Cooper needed.

 

As for Sutton I am very curious how many targets he will see a game now.

Edited by Big Nate

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5 minutes ago, SonataArctica said:

 

I really like his schedule after the bye week. I’m hoping for at least 7-8 TDs a game. 

 

Come on, get with the hype! :D

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10 minutes ago, SonataArctica said:

 

I really like his schedule after the bye week. I’m hoping for at least 7-8 targets a game. 

 

Obviously a stretch goal.  3-5 TD game seems pretty reasonable. 

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I have him as a late rounder in a keeper league. I'd never seen him play in college, just picked him because the scouting reports said he was a good prospect. I watched the highlight vids above. First observation, they really loved the go route/jump ball play to Sutton. I guess if it ain't broke. Also, he looks pretty fast for such a big boy. I'm excited to see what he'll do ROS with more targets. 

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So far this year Denver has attempted 288 passes (not including Sander’s throw).  Of the 288 passes, 166 have gone to WR (58%). Keenum attempts 36 passes per game, and if we assume a 58% target share for WRs, that’s 21 targets per game for the WR position.  I imagine Sanders and Sutton get AT LEAST 7 each.  That leaves 7 more for the rest of the WRs.  And if this season is any indication, they haven’t used anyone outside of Sanders/Thomas/Sutton much at all.  Patrick has 6 targets on the year.  Hamilton has 3 targets on the year.  Maybe without DT they lean on Patrick/Hamilton a little more, however I don’t see a massive uptick in targets for those guys.  I think 10 targets for Sanders, 8 for Sutton, and 3 for Patrick/Hamilton is a decent estimate. 

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1 minute ago, Fort4242 said:

So far this year Denver has attempted 288 passes (not including Sander’s throw).  Of the 288 passes, 166 have gone to WR (58%). Keenum attempts 36 passes per game, and if we assume a 58% target share for WRs, that’s 21 targets per game for the WR position.  I imagine Sanders and Sutton get AT LEAST 7 each.  That leaves 7 more for the rest of the WRs.  And if this season is any indication, they haven’t used anyone outside of Sanders/Thomas/Sutton much at all.  Patrick has 6 targets on the year.  Hamilton has 3 targets on the year.  Maybe without DT they lean on Patrick/Hamilton a little more, however I don’t see a massive uptick in targets for those guys.  I think 10 targets for Sanders, 8 for Sutton, and 3 for Patrick/Hamilton is a decent estimate. 

 

I think the biggest thing we need to look at is the 42% going to TE and RBs.  Is that going to grow now that DT is gone?  Is Heuermann going to be a featured TE that plays more prominently in this offense?  Does DT's departure open some doors to increased workload to Heuermann?  I do have a lot of concerns in that respect but then I look at Courtland's highlight reel and I come to reality - this is a man-beast with pillow soft hands with tree sap coating on them. 

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1 minute ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

I think the biggest thing we need to look at is the 42% going to TE and RBs.  Is that going to grow now that DT is gone?  Is Heuermann going to be a featured TE that plays more prominently in this offense?  Does DT's departure open some doors to increased workload to Heuermann?  I do have a lot of concerns in that respect but then I look at Courtland's highlight reel and I come to reality - this is a man-beast with pillow soft hands with tree sap coating on them. 

 

Heureman is a competent outlet when you have the right matchup...but this team hasn’t had an impact TE since Julius Thomas.   3rd/4th WRs...nah-  Keenum seldom gets through that many progressions.   7-10 targets/game is a fair expectation- and you trust the talent to do the rest.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

So far this year Denver has attempted 288 passes (not including Sander’s throw).  Of the 288 passes, 166 have gone to WR (58%). Keenum attempts 36 passes per game, and if we assume a 58% target share for WRs, that’s 21 targets per game for the WR position.  I imagine Sanders and Sutton get AT LEAST 7 each.  That leaves 7 more for the rest of the WRs.  And if this season is any indication, they haven’t used anyone outside of Sanders/Thomas/Sutton much at all.  Patrick has 6 targets on the year.  Hamilton has 3 targets on the year.  Maybe without DT they lean on Patrick/Hamilton a little more, however I don’t see a massive uptick in targets for those guys.  I think 10 targets for Sanders, 8 for Sutton, and 3 for Patrick/Hamilton is a decent estimate. 

That is some great in depth analysis.

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27 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

I think the biggest thing we need to look at is the 42% going to TE and RBs.  Is that going to grow now that DT is gone?  Is Heuermann going to be a featured TE that plays more prominently in this offense?  Does DT's departure open some doors to increased workload to Heuermann?  I do have a lot of concerns in that respect but then I look at Courtland's highlight reel and I come to reality - this is a man-beast with pillow soft hands with tree sap coating on them. 

I don't think so.  I don't think teams start feeding lesser players just because there's more pie available.  I think if anything, they just start feeding the best players more pie.  Like in Detroit, nobody is concerned over their TE/RBs soaking up more targets - everyone is going hog wild for Golladay/Jones because they know they're going to get fed.  I think it's the same thing in Denver.  Heuermann is a competent TE, but I don't think Denver is going to start targeting the TE a crazy amount just because DT is gone.  That would almost require a change of how they run the offense.  I think the TEs/RBs continue to get about 42% and Sanders/Sutton split the remaining 58% with an occasional target to Hamilton/Patrick.

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