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Marvin Jones 2018 Outlook

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Why would the Lions defense particularly being a mess be a problem? And you can only call him the third option if you only count targets. Who do you think got more targets last year, Jones or Tate? Who finished higher?

 

Detroit’s offense is a mess too, not just their defense. Did you like how Matthew Stafford looked on Monday? Their O-line? The drops? Granted, there’s definitely still time for them to turn it around, but can’t feel good about starting Jones until they do. He’s a hold and bench (though not a drop) for me until they do.

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1 hour ago, kraftwrk_5 said:

 

Detroit’s offense is a mess too, not just their defense. Did you like how Matthew Stafford looked on Monday? Their O-line? The drops? Granted, there’s definitely still time for them to turn it around, but can’t feel good about starting Jones until they do. He’s a hold and bench (though not a drop) for me until they do.

 

Sure, I watched Stafford throw a ton of PAs to three WRs. 

 

If you expected Marvin Jones to be the most consistent WR or get the most targets on draft day, you ****** up. That's on you. Because that's not who he is. 

 

103, 103, 108 Targets last three years. Between 55-65 Rec. Tate has 122, 135, and 128. Tate is always going to be the more targeted receiver. 

 

Marvin Jones lead the team in Yards Per Reception last year. (and the NFL).

He lead the team in RZ Targets (15). Golden Tate had 8, TJ Jones had 6. 

 

He had multiple small weeks. He had under 50 yards in a plenty of games, and he had a few over 100 yards.

 

If you drafted Marvin Jones expecting elite week-to-week consistency, YOU ****** up in your expectation. This is who Marvin Jones is. There's going to be a bit of Boom/Bust, and you hope when the dust settles he's a seasonal WR2. If you didn't want to deal with the ebbs and flows of a deep-threat, RZ-threat, lower-volume WR, than you should've drafted Tate or someone else over Jones. But there's nothing in Marvin Jones leading the team in Air Target Yards w/ 2 RZ targets and the same target number he's averaged the last three years that makes me think I should be worried one iota about Marvin Jones.

 

And the biggest fact of the matter is that Jones has big weeks, so if you're not willing to play him every week, just get rid of him man. You set him and forget him and hope that the big weeks come when you need them.

 

On 9/11/2018 at 11:16 AM, Sternes said:

 

Maybe you should read the first page for some concerning information about him.

 

As for his floor:

 

Jones PPR finish

2017 - 11

2016 - 43

2015 - 35

 

Jones standard finish

2017 - 5

2016 - 38

(my league doesn't go back that far so can't say)

 

And if he is WR30, he that would make him a WR3 when most took him as a WR2 with WR1 upside.

 

2016 he had 55/930/4 in 15 games. Between getting 4 TDs as Detroits most targeted RZ receiver and missing a game, I think based on his Detroit sample, a baseline of close to 60-65/1000/6.5 would be a fair projection. 

 

In terms of draft, I'd argue most drafted him with the expectation that he COULD be a WR2 with WR1 upside. But saying he was drafted there, to me, suggests he was taken somewhere between WR13-17 range. My Fantasypros ADP data still has him listed as the WR24. Which means regardless of what my personal expectations or what anyone might have been, he really wasn't drafted *as* as a WR2 with WR1 upside to me. He wasn't in any draft I was a part of. I'd consider like an Amari Cooper or Larry or Juju to fit that distinction and by ADP they all went quite a bit higher. Marvin Jones went in a range where I can still simply hope for him to be a Boom-or-Bust WR2 and believe I got my ROI. 

 

Maybe in your drafts it was different, but I'd agree more if I had to reach out of my shoes for Marvin Jones. In the drafts i was a part of, whether I got him or not, I didn't feel like his price was factoring in his 2017 finish very much... which was fine because I'm not confident he repeats. But I didn't find Jones to be overpriced at the draft table, personally.

 

I'll take the above projection and equate it to about WR16 in 1/2 Point based on last year. Wiggle room around it makes me feel good about my projection still. 

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@taobball hit the nail on the head. Last game should not be concerning for MJJ's outlook. Stafford threw two bombs to MJJ in the end zone, both hit him in the hands. If he pulls in one of those, that's 11 points. He will get targets like this every week. Some weeks he will catch one, some weeks he won't.

 

Add that to a couple of RZ targets each game (MJJ received 2 RZ targets on the last drive last week IIRC), and a couple of mid/deep targets between the 20s, you're looking the same MJJ as last year. Definitely not a safe floor (3/50 ish) but has the ability to win weeks.

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Well, I took him in the 10th round and as my 4th WR selection, so expectations were not that high to begin with. Let’s see how he does against SF - 1 catch for 12 yards so far.

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8 hours ago, NyMetsfan5 said:

This is why I don’t even bother looking at these forums much anymore after being a big time poster here. Such classic RW overreactions from people who don’t even watch the games. I’ll tell you how this is gona go. Marvin is gona get 100 with a td today.  The people in here saying that he’s been surpassed after one week of terrible football from them are going to disappear. Monday morning there will be multiple comments saying top 10 wr ROS?  And some saying love him as my Wr1!!!  It’s pathetic at this point 

 

Amazing people don't read an entire player thread when it is only 3 pages deep.  There are very relevant concerns pointed out on page 1 as to why he is extremely risky and unlikely to get back to last years numbers.

 

If you are banking on jump ball coin flips, he is your guy.

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1 minute ago, Sternes said:

 

Amazing people don't read an entire player thread when it is only 3 pages deep.  There are very relevant concerns pointed out on page 1 as to why he is extremely risky and unlikely to get back to last years numbers.

 

If you are banking on jump ball coin flips, he is your guy.

 if he is your WR3 or 4 there is nothing wrong with that, aside from the fact that its frustrating so you do have a point, but i like Marvin a lot though and if Stafford was a little more accurate last week and this week could have easily been 100 plus yards and 1 plus TDs both games 

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4 minutes ago, atrium said:

Stafford likes Golladay more than him, that’s what’s really killing his value

 

Stafford really does love throwing it up there to 6'4" Golladay. I think it's definitely taken the ceiling games out of MJ's value (really long TD's and gains.) Obviously need more targets to obtain those outcomes more often.

 

No one will give you anything for Marvin Jones so you might as well HODL. 

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13 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Stafford really does love throwing it up there to 6'4" Golladay. I think it's definitely taken the ceiling games out of MJ's value (really long TD's and gains.)

 

Nope, just nope. Have you seen either of the Lions games? Looked at the average depth of target? Stafford still, as much as ever, loves hucking it up to MJJ, and has done so many times. 3 deep bombs in week 1, 2 of which hit MJJs hands in the endzone. At least two deep bombs to MJJ yesterday, one of which was an easy long TD but Stafford just missed him. He also stares him down in the redzone. MJJ is getting almost all of the deep, downfield targets. Golladay is getting plenty of targets but they are more short and intermediate routes, MJJ looks just as much of the deep threat this year as he has in years passed. 

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The general outlook is he's getting the targets and the downfield looks, and producing enough to justify the start despite the absence of any "boom" so far.

 

I'm getting nervous trusting him given the spread out distribution - even though the almost guaranteed high volume of passes guarantees the looks, at some point a high share of a high target pile that amounts to middling production will start to feel worrisome.

 

Here's hoping they connect on one of those deep shots and the injury amounts to nothing. Regardless I may sit for a Kenny Stills type who I have a better feeling about / has less competition.

Edited by hoopes

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Well Im hoping teams will realize Golladay is a legit threat and start covering him better which will open up Jones for softer coverage.

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1 hour ago, jadakid said:

So who’s rolling him out tonight?

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7503/marvin-jones

 

 

I love the matchup with New England but realistically speaking he is a low-end WR2 and looks the 3rd fiddle on his team so I'm not sure he is the type of guy I want to take a risk on unless you really have nothing else since even if he is active it isn't clear how "active" he will truly be and could easily be a dreaded decoy.  For example I'll be going with Goodwin (if active) or Corey Davis instead. Neither are great options but I don't have the luxury of waiting. If you have players playing even in just the 4 o'clock games you can at least better assess if its worth the risk or not based upon how your team performs in the 1pm games. I was hoping Hogan might be on waivers since he was dropped in some of my other leagues and would be the perfect insurance policy. Even Dorsett is still rostered. 

Edited by Jaw1

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Bad ankle.   The late night start is killer

Edited by phatrat
CSB removed

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2 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

I love the matchup with New England but realistically speaking he is a low-end WR2 and looks the 3rd fiddle on his team so I'm not sure he is the type of guy I want to take a risk on unless you really have nothing else since even if he is active it isn't clear how "active" he will truly be and could easily be a dreaded decoy.  For example I'll be going with Goodwin (if active) or Corey Davis instead. Neither are great options but I don't have the luxury of waiting. If you have players playing even in just the 4 o'clock games you can at least better assess if its worth the risk or not based upon how your team performs in the 1pm games. I was hoping Hogan might be on waivers since he was dropped in some of my other leagues and would be the perfect insurance policy. Even Dorsett is still rostered. 

He is going to finish with less targets than the others bc of the type of targets he gets.. he is going to catch several 40+ tD's and finish the year with 1000-1100 yards and 6-8 TDs, thats who he is

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7 hours ago, dakimbell said:

He is going to finish with less targets than the others bc of the type of targets he gets.. he is going to catch several 40+ tD's and finish the year with 1000-1100 yards and 6-8 TDs, thats who he is

 

Those numbers seem too close to last years numbers (61/1101/9, best season of his career) for me especially since I think as year goes on KJ and the run game will get more involved meaning Stafford isn't likely to be 3rd in passing yards again this year. That also took Jones having a league leading 18 ypr, the 3rd most TDs (5 of the 9 coming in the RZ where he was heavily targeted so it wasn't like his production was solely deep TD catches) and 2nd most route runs. I think those numbers are due for a natural regression before even taking into account Golladay (even last season Jones' average targets went from 10 to 5 in the games Golladay played). I think he'll be the 3rd best fantasy WR on his team and a lot of those RZ looks will go to Golladay. Also, he is the type of guy that will probably get more than half of his numbers in 6 games (especially with emergence of Golladay he'll be more reliant on catching a bomb) which combined with him not being a volume catch guy I have him as a low-end WR2/WR3 especially in PPR. He'll have some big weeks for sure but imo he is just as likely to basically disappear. Sure Ebron leaving gives more opportunities up for grabs but Jones as primarily a vertical deep threat isn't the one to likely benefit from those. 

Edited by Jaw1

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Solid game, Lions ran a lot to keep Brady off the field, and it worked. 6 targets for Jones, 7 for Golladay, and 8 for Tate. Jones continues to get the deep targets. He also could have had another TD but Stafford sailed it over his head in the endzone. 

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