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Jaylen Samuels 2018 Outlook

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20 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Now we can talk about how Samuels is going to do as a running back against the Saints.  The Saints just gave up a combined 120 (not counting the 50 yard TD pass) to Christian McCaffrey, who was playing with a QB who quite clearly could not throw the football and has now been mercifully shut down for the season.  Big Ben is going to be chucking it all over the yard, forcing the Saints to play dime defense.  Then Samuels can run against those soft fronts.

 

YAHTZEE

This is why I think he is a good start, the Steelers will be able to spread the NO defense out.  I have seen stats thrown around mentioning how their run defense has “turned it around”since week 10.  Here is that schedule:

Cinn

Phi

Atl

Dal

TB

Car

 

None of those teams have shown to have as complete an offense as Pitt.  The Steelers “should” be able to force that Saints to defend the whole field, instead of allowing them to focus on stopping one aspect of it.  A dual threat RB like Samuels may provide more of a challenge, not to mention the Saints will probably be more focused on stopping Pitt’s passing game. The primary concern in my eyes is that home field dominance the Saints have exhibited.

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In Leagues that he has TE eligibility is he considered a must start over everyone except Kelce pretty much?  My sense is that New Orleans generally seems to be more vulnerable through the air so I'm wondering about his touches dropping significantly from the New England game especially if it turns into a shootout 

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17 minutes ago, poormansmoorman said:

In Leagues that he has TE eligibility is he considered a must start over everyone except Kelce pretty much?  My sense is that New Orleans generally seems to be more vulnerable through the air so I'm wondering about his touches dropping significantly from the New England game especially if it turns into a shootout 

 

He's game-script Proof, Better receiver than he is runner,......a shoot-out is a plus for him, Saints tough rush defense, would benefit pitt to get samuels in space with the screen passes.

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31 minutes ago, poormansmoorman said:

In Leagues that he has TE eligibility is he considered a must start over everyone except Kelce pretty much?  My sense is that New Orleans generally seems to be more vulnerable through the air so I'm wondering about his touches dropping significantly from the New England game especially if it turns into a shootout 

Yeah as long as Conner doesn't play. If Conner tries to play then it's anyone's best guess. But I'd still consider him a top 10 TE if Conner plays. 

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Now we can talk about how Samuels is going to do as a running back against the Saints.  The Saints just gave up a combined 120 (not counting the 50 yard TD pass) to Christian McCaffrey, who was playing with a QB who quite clearly could not throw the football and has now been mercifully shut down for the season.  Big Ben is going to be chucking it all over the yard, forcing the Saints to play dime defense.  Then Samuels can run against those soft fronts.

 

YAHTZEE

Loved YAHTZEE but haven't played it in forever, lol.  I'm kinda concerned because Samuels only broke one tackle against the Pats and the Saints have been playing lights out on D lately and are especially tough at home.  Plus the Steelers played alot of empty sets w/o a RB last week.  Pats have been very bad against RBs lately and we haven't seen what Jaylen can do against a good defense yet.  Since Samuels is such a good receiver he should be able to get decent passing yardage.  I would put his over / under for yards around 85, don't know what others think.

 

As someone who invested alot in getting all the lead Steelers RBs, I was thinking earlier that Conner going down might be the best thing for everyone who can play Samuels at TE.  His upside at TE is simply ridiculous and might be the difference between a championship or busting this week.  

 

 

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Connor unlikely to play!

 

This dude is a league winner!

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14 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Haha I don't play yahoo but man that doesn't seem like something I'd be yelling from the rooftops, I'd feel kinda weasely about it myself.

Championships are decided on the waiver wire all the time.  Studs are found for free every year.  How many people got Chubb as a free agent because they just happened to stumble upon the story on a random day.  That’s a weasel move that takes no skill.  But I can’t count how many people on here were bragging about their rosters.  This game takes a lot of luck and timing.

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15 hours ago, mbell317 said:

Yeah as long as Conner doesn't play. If Conner tries to play then it's anyone's best guess. But I'd still consider him a top 10 TE if Conner plays. 

 

Yeah, this is the one question left discussing for Yahoo leagues. If Conner is out, I just don't see anyone bar Kelce that I'd play instead. There are only five options. Ebron and Cook are dart throws, Kittle has a dodgy QB and the Bears, and Ertz has QB issues too. Even if Conner does play I'd expect him to (a) be limited and (b) have a good chance of exiting the game. If Conner plays I still start Samuels at TE over everyone bar the big three, and Engram in PPR if OBJ doesn't go. I just can't see the Steelers risking Conner now.

 

More interesting in other leagues is where Samuels ranks at RB.

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Hell, with Conner out and JuJu Q, I may run him as a RB1 over Gurley. Sounds crazy but injured Gurley vs hapless Cards has 10 touch ceiling written all over or. 

 

Wish I could cheese Samuels in the TE. Lol. 

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I’m thinking it hurts Samuels if JuJu is out.  Less pass weapons for the Saints to have to worry about. They can double AB and single cover whoever plays in JuJus place, then focus on Samuels.  Anyone agree?

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13 minutes ago, jadakid said:

I’m thinking it hurts Samuels if JuJu is out.  Less pass weapons for the Saints to have to worry about. They can double AB and single cover whoever plays in JuJus place, then focus on Samuels.  Anyone agree?

Kind of, but on the other hand Samuels could get extra targets that would normally have gone to Smith-Schuster.

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18 minutes ago, jadakid said:

I’m thinking it hurts Samuels if JuJu is out.  Less pass weapons for the Saints to have to worry about. They can double AB and single cover whoever plays in JuJus place, then focus on Samuels.  Anyone agree?

No doubt about it IMO.  

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28 minutes ago, jadakid said:

I’m thinking it hurts Samuels if JuJu is out.  Less pass weapons for the Saints to have to worry about. They can double AB and single cover whoever plays in JuJus place, then focus on Samuels.  Anyone agree?

 

Its probably not great for juju to be out. Just a brutal matchup with how the saints have been playing.   But we’ll see-  pitt rb gives u many ways to score.  

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44 minutes ago, jadakid said:

I’m thinking it hurts Samuels if JuJu is out.  Less pass weapons for the Saints to have to worry about. They can double AB and single cover whoever plays in JuJus place, then focus on Samuels.  Anyone agree?

 

The Saints are the #1 run stop unit in the league, but are #28 vs the pass (bottom 5).  I don't think the 3-4 Saints have the personnel to double AB (w/ Lattimore and the FS presumably), single cover Washington (with CB2 Eli Apple) cover Switzer & Vance @TE (with some combination of the SS and an OLB) and still have a body (presumably another LB) to shadow Samuels.  I mean technically they could but Samuels can beat any of their coverage LB's anyway.  They definitely can't afford to shadow Samuels w/ a defensive back which is what it would take to slow him down.  I personally think Washington will torch the awful Eli Apple (JuJu might have embarrassed Eli Apple out of a starting job) but Eli will have his hands full so it's not like they can completely ignore JuJu's replacement.

 

Wish JuJu was playing but I think Samuels will see a slight increase in target share which will offset any additional focus the D puts on him (which I don't think they will be able to really do anyway).

Edited by ragrag
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3 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

The Saints are the #1 run stop unit in the league, but are #28 vs the pass (bottom 5).  I don't think the 3-4 Saints have the personnel to double AB (w/ Lattimore and the FS presumably), single cover Washington (with CB2 Eli Apple) cover Switzer & Vance @TE (with some combination of the SS and an OLB) and still have a body (presumably another LB) to shadow Samuels.  I mean technically they could but Samuels can beat any of their coverage LB's anyway.  They definitely can't afford to shadow Samuels w/ a defensive back which is what it would take to stuff him.  I personally think Washington will torch the awful Eli Apple anyway so there won't be that much of a downgrade (JuJu might have embarrassed Eli Apple out of a starting job).

 

Wish JuJu was playing but I think Samuels will see a slight increase in target share which will offset any additional focus the D puts on him (which I don't think they will be able to really do anyway).

The Saints field some of the best coverage linebackers in the game.  It’s why they are so successful vs TE play.

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1 minute ago, OmegaRed88 said:

The Saints field some of the best coverage linebackers in the game.  It’s why they are so successful vs TE play.

 

Klien, Anzalone and DD might be able to shut down Vance and other TEs , but they're going to struggle vs Switzer and Samuels.  There's a reason the Saints are one of the worst passing D's in the league.

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10 minutes ago, sSektor said:

I'm torn between him or Gronk in the TE spot.

Seriously?

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9 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

Klien, Anzalone and DD might be able to shut down Vance and other TEs , but they're going to struggle vs Switzer and Samuels.  There's a reason the Saints are one of the worst passing D's in the league.

 

Because they had a very poor first half of the year giving up a few monster games.  Saints Defense FF points allowed vs enemy arms since week 9

 

18.9

0.8

21.6

14

19.1

4.7

 

Hasn't exactly been a smorgasbord lately.  Also, the saints have gotten out to huge leads often this season which has generally lead to opponents going pass heavy to catch up.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Seriously?

 

Against the Saints defense at home? Yeah, sorta. Especially considering how quickly the Steelers abandon the run when behind this season. Gronk doesn't exactly have a hot matchup either which is why I'm leaning Samuels but still it isn't ridiculous to consider.

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