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Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

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8 hours ago, Soccer8098 said:

In my 9 cat double double league, Davis has a 1.50 z score, harden is 1.57. Kawhi, who on a per game basis is the 7th ranked player, has a z score of 0.69 - that means that Davis has over double the overall value than the 7th ranked fantasy player. That is completely insane. 

 

Note that zscores also range to the negative, so using them compatively 2x like this doesnt really work. However in this case AD is so extreme you arent far off in claiming 2x, but for much lesser players this value measure will be way off.

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1 hour ago, jsquints said:

 

Note that zscores also range to the negative, so using them compatively 2x like this doesnt really work. However in this case AD is so extreme you arent far off in claiming 2x, but for much lesser players this value measure will be way off.

Yes, you're correct.  You know this, but for those of you who don't a zscore of 0 is the mean among whatever sample size you are using.  BBM uses the top 188 players, for whatever reason.  But there's a definite floor because the 188th player at least produces something.  So the highest rank players exceed the mean by a lot more than the bottom players miss the mean.   There's more difference between AD/Harden and the 20th ranked player than there is between the 20th ranked player and the 188th player which is absolutely ******** insane.   For that reason, a zscore of 0 actually corresponds to the 60th ranked player.  I agree that while AD technically is worth two other first round players, that's a little misleading.  It's more like AD + Jerami Grant (60th ranked player) is worth two first round players because Grant has a zscore of 0.  AD plus a WW player is worth less than two first round players.  It's still remarkable how valuable he is in 9 cat and how valuable Harden is in 8 cat. 

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10 hours ago, dboywong said:

Someone in my league just sold him for Simmons and I don't know how to feel. It's a safety net for the Ad owner but one hell of a sell low. 

I think thats very fair..no smart owner will offer more for AD, it is what it is

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10 hours ago, dboywong said:

Someone in my league just sold him for Simmons and I don't know how to feel. It's a safety net for the Ad owner but one hell of a sell low. 

Not the worst if it's H2H and he is punting FT%.  He sheds some risk in AD and Simmons has a better PO schedule.  It would require a specific set of circumstances though, as I'd much rather be buying AD for that price than selling.

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I would rather sell (higher price than Simmons for sure).  AD is playing now, after All-Star break it will be, in my opinion, completely different situation.  Dust will settle a bit, more teams will start tanking and player rest days will be more frequent.

All NO has to do is point to <insert player name here> sitting when healthy.

NBA and Silver will be busy coaching other teams telling them who to play or how much.

Or they can turn blind eye to AD situation and let NO bench him.

It will be an even bigger mess for everyone involved

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1 minute ago, Gile Pile said:

I would rather sell (higher price than Simmons for sure).  AD is playing now, after All-Star break it will be, in my opinion, completely different situation.  Dust will settle a bit, more teams will start tanking and player rest days will be more frequent.

All NO has to do is point to <insert player name here> sitting when healthy.

NBA and Silver will be busy coaching other teams telling them who to play or how much.

Or they can turn blind eye to AD situation and let NO bench him.

It will be an even bigger mess for everyone involved

This guy clearly needs the AD owner in his league or leagues to panic 😂

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6 minutes ago, Brandayz said:

So all of you agree on selling this guy before fantasy playoffs?? 

NO.  I would sell only under the most ideal circumstance.  Only if I got a sweet deal with a first round player with a better PO schedule who fit my team plus a mid round player.  Something like CP3 plus Gobert, for example.  

Edited by StifleTower2

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3 minutes ago, RingMyBell said:

This guy clearly needs the AD owner in his league or leagues to panic 😂

Let's revisit this in a month.

I don't own AD and I did not make any offers for him.  For ROS I am not interested in taking a risk on AD

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6 minutes ago, Brandayz said:

So all of you agree on selling this guy before fantasy playoffs?? 

Consider that NO has 3-3-3 playoff schedule.

In keepers leagues, AD is  100% hold.

In redrafts,  I would sell as soon as possible.  If he sits one game in playoffs, you will be getting 2 games of AD in limited minutes.

Can you get a player(s)  that will give you more than AD in  a playoff week?

Make your own decission  :D

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2 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Consider that NO has 3-3-3 playoff schedule.

In keepers leagues, AD is  100% hold.

In redrafts,  I would sell as soon as possible.  If he sits one game in playoffs, you will be getting 2 games of AD in limited minutes.

Can you get a player(s)  that will give you more than AD in  a playoff week?

Make your own decission  :D

 

Two games of AD, even if he gets ~32 mins, is better than three games of anybody else not named james harden

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10 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Let's revisit this in a month.

I don't own AD and I did not make any offers for him.  For ROS I am not interested in taking a risk on AD

You just sound salty everything you post here is negative.  If you dont own AD or have no stakes, quit coming in here to pee in the punch.

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5 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Let's revisit this in a month.

I don't own AD and I did not make any offers for him.  For ROS I am not interested in taking a risk on AD

Let's not. 

 

Assuming you're in a large buy-in 12 team league you start off with about a 8% chance of winning your league.  Let's assume you're better than average and we will round that out to a 10% chance of winning.  I'm not in the business of trying to go from 6th to 4th.  I'm in the business of increasing those 10% odds of actually winning the league.  I think there's a greater than 10% AD plays the remainder of the season so if I can buy low then I'm improving my overall expected value (EV).  But I think there's less than a 50% chance he plays more than 20 games.  I don't want people coming on here saying I told you so if he doesn't play.  I know that's a possibility.  I simply think I improve my EV by buying low on him, even if it's a relative long shot.  

 

You maximize your win by playing more than 10 leagues and taking calculated risks with positive expected value, not by being risk averse. 

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20 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Consider that NO has 3-3-3 playoff schedule.

In keepers leagues, AD is  100% hold.

In redrafts,  I would sell as soon as possible.  If he sits one game in playoffs, you will be getting 2 games of AD in limited minutes.

Can you get a player(s)  that will give you more than AD in  a playoff week?

Make your own decission  :D

LOL bruh you must be getting paid to discredit Anthony Davis on this thread , you’re not Adam silver stop this.

 

You do have solid points on the Anthony Davis situation, but you’ve already been proven wrong after posting 100 times he’ll get shutdown. Give it up man.

 

its clear you want Anthony Davis to get ****** over so u can tell us all that you seen it coming , trust me we all know the risk factor here , but if I were u would just leave this thread or admit I was wrong.

 

i already knew u would come back w some lame posts , lmao even if Anthony Davis plays 2 games in a week with 24mins that’s easily better than a 3 game week from a top 15 player such as kemba.

 

AD is the goat and I regret trading him

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25 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Let's not. 

 

Assuming you're in a large buy-in 12 team league you start off with about a 8% chance of winning your league.  Let's assume you're better than average and we will round that out to a 10% chance of winning.  I'm not in the business of trying to go from 6th to 4th.  I'm in the business of increasing those 10% odds of actually winning the league.  I think there's a greater than 10% AD plays the remainder of the season so if I can buy low then I'm improving my overall expected value (EV).  But I think there's less than a 50% chance he plays more than 20 games.  I don't want people coming on here saying I told you so if he doesn't play.  I know that's a possibility.  I simply think I improve my EV by buying low on him, even if it's a relative long shot.  

 

You maximize your win by playing more than 10 leagues and taking calculated risks with positive expected value, not by being risk averse. 

Damn this makes me feel even worse about selling for kemba 

 

I feel like I’m to involved w fantasy basketball that I overthought and screwed myself over lmao

 

if I wasn’t a savvy owner I definitely would of held on :(

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for what is worth here are some numbers

 

Assuming that %s stay the same  for all the players mentioned, using stats are for the season.
AD  2 games totals would be:
1.8 3pm, 26.6 reb, 8.6 ast, 3.4 stl, 5.2 blk, 4 to, 58 pts
Doncic 3  games total:
7.2  3pm, 21 reb, 16.5 ast, 3.3 stl, 0.9 blk, 6.6 to, 61.8 pts
Tatum - 3 games
7.5 3pm, 18.9 reb, 5.7 ast, 3 stl,  2.4 blk, 4.5 to,  49.2 pts
Kemba - 3 games
9.9 3pm, 12.9 reb, 17.1 ast, 3.6 stl, 1.5 blk, 7.5 to,  65.3 pts

 

Consider the risks for each player and make your own decisions..

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2 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

for what is worth here are some numbers

 

Assuming that %s stay the same  for all the players mentioned, using stats are for the season.
AD  2 games totals would be:
1.8 3pm, 26.6 reb, 8.6 ast, 3.4 stl, 5.2 blk, 4 to, 58 pts
Doncic 3  games total:
7.2  3pm, 21 reb, 16.5 ast, 3.3 stl, 0.9 blk, 6.6 to, 61.8 pts
Tatum - 3 games
7.5 3pm, 18.9 reb, 5.7 ast, 3 stl,  2.4 blk, 4.5 to,  49.2 pts
Kemba - 3 games
9.9 3pm, 12.9 reb, 17.1 ast, 3.6 stl, 1.5 blk, 7.5 to,  65.3 pts

 

Consider the risks for each player and make your own decisions..

Thanks for putting this together, regardless of the disagreement.

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6 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

for what is worth here are some numbers

 

Assuming that %s stay the same  for all the players mentioned, using stats are for the season.
AD  2 games totals would be:
1.8 3pm, 26.6 reb, 8.6 ast, 3.4 stl, 5.2 blk, 4 to, 58 pts
Doncic 3  games total:
7.2  3pm, 21 reb, 16.5 ast, 3.3 stl, 0.9 blk, 6.6 to, 61.8 pts
Tatum - 3 games
7.5 3pm, 18.9 reb, 5.7 ast, 3 stl,  2.4 blk, 4.5 to,  49.2 pts
Kemba - 3 games
9.9 3pm, 12.9 reb, 17.1 ast, 3.6 stl, 1.5 blk, 7.5 to,  65.3 pts

 

Consider the risks for each player and make your own decisions..

Davis fg percentage is a huge difference maker compared to kemba and doncic , and from my knowledge it’s not like kemba or doncic have a 4-4-4 playoff sced either way

 

most AD owners are in 1st place and are looking at a by week as well which is good for AD owners

 

also AD just played a back to back , there’s not much concern with AD at this point only thing really is injury.

 

you have fair points on Anthony Davis , but at this point his outlook is looking like it could be on par w Kevin durant or Joel embiid, easy top 10 value

 

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1 minute ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Davis fg percentage is a huge difference maker compared to kemba and doncic , and from my knowledge it’s not like kemba or doncic have a 4-4-4 playoff sced either way

 

most AD owners are in 1st place and are looking at a by week as well which is good for AD owners

 

also AD just played a back to back , there’s not much concern with AD at this point only thing really is injury.

 

you have fair points on Anthony Davis , but at this point his outlook is looking like it could be on par w Kevin durant or Joel embiid, easy top 10 value

 

To add to your point, it's difficult for people to conceive just how valuable blocks are.  The mean for blocks is .7.  AD gets 2.6.  That's comparable to someone scoring 50+ points.  You can't just look at the line and realize how good AD is because the human mind is drawn to the "big" numbers (points, rebounds, assists).

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

To add to your point, it's difficult for people to conceive just how valuable blocks are.  The mean for blocks is .7.  AD gets 2.6.  That's comparable to someone scoring 50+ points.  You can't just look at the line and realize how good AD is because the human mind is drawn to the "big" numbers (points, rebounds, assists).

Agreed !!! Davis getting 2.6 blocks a game is like 13 assists in my head 

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5 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

To add to your point, it's difficult for people to conceive just how valuable blocks are.  The mean for blocks is .7.  AD gets 2.6.  That's comparable to someone scoring 50+ points.  You can't just look at the line and realize how good AD is because the human mind is drawn to the "big" numbers (points, rebounds, assists).

 

Agreed.  Myles Turner is singlehandedly making me lose blocks this week, imagine having those kinds of blocks along with all the other production 

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10 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Agreed.  Myles Turner is singlehandedly making me lose blocks this week, imagine having those kinds of blocks along with all the other production 

Or having both Turner and Davis on the same team... ;)

 

Slight bragging aside, lose in this discussion is for people playing in regular roto leagues where there is no playoff obviously since there's no head-to-head play.  I was considering trading him in my league that is like that, but ended up holding him and so far I'm pretty happy I did.  I can still understand if people traded him in leagues in that format as well, but if I did, I would still only do it for a Top 10ish player.  I'm back to not looking to trade him again though.

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2 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Or having both Turner and Davis on the same team... ;)

 

Slight bragging aside, lose in this discussion is for people playing in regular roto leagues where there is no playoff obviously since there's no head-to-head play.  I was considering trading him in my league that is like that, but ended up holding him and so far I'm pretty happy I did.  I can still understand if people traded him in leagues in that format as well, but if I did, I would still only do it for a Top 10ish player.  I'm back to not looking to trade him again though.

Or keeper leagues.  People assume that H2H redraft is standard but they are only about 1/4 of the leagues I'm in.

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Just to check his value. Would you other AD owners sell for someone like PG13?? :)

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