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devaster

Chris Warren III 2018 Outlook

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Hoo boy, life comes at you fast.  I drafted his dad on my first ever fantasy team.   Points only, no H2H, you phoned in your lineup, and stats came from the local paper.   

 

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3 hours ago, disasterisk said:

 

Tim Hightower was out of the NFL for 4 years when he ended up starting for the Saints near the end of 2015 and he won people fantasy championships. 

 

Also dynasty leagues exist and Warren is very intriguing in dynasty considering his low cost. 

Expect Hightower was introduced during the season not in preseason 

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7 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Expect Hightower was introduced during the season not in preseason 

Martin isn't a serious long-term threat. Lynch isn't either, but the job is his as long as he continues to beast. The other two backups are nothing impressive. There is a path. And with an injury currently to one of the backups he might vault himself into the #4 role. He is a cheap rookie talent. Value in dynasty.

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Looked at the tape and didn't see anything that stood out at all except for confirmation that there are plenty of back-up backs in the league right now who have much better tape than Warren.

 

He is what he is.

Edited by nonstopfan

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

Martin isn't a serious long-term threat. Lynch isn't either, but the job is his as long as he continues to beast. The other two backups are nothing impressive. There is a path. And with an injury currently to one of the backups he might vault himself into the #4 role. He is a cheap rookie talent. Value in dynasty.

or they trade Richard or Washington. that could be a possiblity.  I did draft Warren in my startup dynasty hoping to see something come of it

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24 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Expect Hightower was introduced during the season not in preseason 

 

Hightower was initially cut after the preseason during the middle of September. Also I'm not sure what you being pedantic about when Hightower was or was not introduced (whatever that means in this context) has anything to do with what he accomplished in 2015. I brought him up as evidence to refute the notion that a running back currently buried on a team's depth chart definitely won't have relevance in fantasy this year. 

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I waited patiently and didn't pull the trigger on this guy... until ESPN added him to the player universe.

 

CANT BE ANYMORE PATIENT

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On 8/23/2018 at 3:14 PM, BrianM said:

Hoo boy, life comes at you fast.  I drafted his dad on my first ever fantasy team.   Points only, no H2H, you phoned in your lineup, and stats came from the local paper.   

 

 

Image result for old man winter meme

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Another good game....15 carries, 54 yards 1 TD.  He's on the 53 now.  

 

Overall preseason line: 46 carries, 250 yards, 2 TD

Edited by dorsett33

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Ok serious question...is this guy too slow?  He is obviously a power back but man he ran a 4.70 40 and looks very slow to me on  tape. 

 

Considering making a bid for my RB needy dynasty team.  I know other guys in the league want him.

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His GL TD run in the Packers game where he trucked the Packers' defensive back was awesome. He is going to be on some team if he doesn't make the Raiders.

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53 minutes ago, Beerdown said:

Ok serious question...is this guy too slow?  He is obviously a power back but man he ran a 4.70 40 and looks very slow to me on  tape. 

 

Considering making a bid for my RB needy dynasty team.  I know other guys in the league want him.

He ran a 4.7 at the combine but a 4.5 at his pro day.  He has plenty of speed to make it in the NFL. He also had 25 reps on the bench press.  This article is a pretty good read....

 

 

https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2018/8/17/17627574/chris-warren-iii-rushing-performance-for-the-raiders-didnt-just-come-out-of-nowhere

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He also weighs 246lbs I think. He is a big RB that probably won't be the fastest guy. But I definitely see a nice initial burst from him through the LOS and through the hole. He won't ever have the long speed to run away from the secondary, but a lot of RB's don't either.

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Comparing Chris Warren's preseason to previous Raiders preseasons:

 

2018 Preseason (3 games)

Chris Warren: 46 Rushing Attempts: 250 Yards, 2 TDs

DeAndre Washington: 6 Rushing Attempts: 38 Yards 0 TDs

Doug Martin: 7 Rushing Attempts: 27 Yards 0 TDs

Jalen Richard: 7 Rushing Attempts: 16 Yards 0 TDs

 

2017 Preseason (according to Raiders.com):

DeAndre Washington: 14 Attempts: 57 Yards 0 TDs

Jalen Richard: 9 Attempts: 26 Yards 0 TDs

Elijah Hood: 8 Attempts: 32 Yards 0 TDs

(This seems like an abnormally low number of rushing attempts for an entire preseason but that's what the website says, the same website showed 80 passing attempts between 3 qbs in 2017 preseason)

 

2016 Preseason (according to Raiders.com):

DeAndre Washington: 32 Attempts: 120 Yards, 0 TDs

Latavius Murray: 12 Attempts: 40 Yards, 0 TDs

Jalen Richard: 10 Attempts: 45 Yards, 0 TDs

 

So in the past 3 years, Chris Warren with by far the most number of preseason rushing attempts, the only one with preseason rushing TDs, averaging 5.4 YPC and the only one to break 200 yards.

 

Jon Gruden on Chris Warren, Aug. 19th:

"He's a good back, isn't he? I mean he's rushed for almost 200 yards in two weeks. And I know he's not playing against the regulars but he's not playing with the regulars either. He's a big powerful back that's taken care of the ball, he's gotta get better without the football. That's what it's all about with him. We know he can run, we know he's powerful and fast and elusive, but he's gotta get a lot better without the football to be an NFL back."

 

This week vs. the Packers since that comment, 15 more attempts, 54 Yards, 1 TD.

 

Guys in front of him:

Marshawn Lynch - hall of famer, one of the best runners of all time. 2,351 career rushes. 207 Rushing attempts last year. Thats a 56 percent share of the teams rushes.

Doug Martin- 2.93 YPC on his last 282 carries, 3.57 YPC this preseason.  Reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew in his lone Raiders season.

DeAndre/Jalen- think these guys are well behind Chris Warren at this point.

 

Chris Warren's father is a Seahawks great, so he has that pedigree. Talking to Raiders.com, Chris Warren on his "mindset". I think he looks like a guy who fits the Gruden mentality- hard player, angry, ready to get you, nothing too fancy just tougher than you. 

 

Chris Warren Interview

 

Last 2 years in my league, both DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard were on 14 team league rosters. Why should this guy not be? I think he could be the leading rusher on this team IF.... he works on that "gotta get better without the football" part.

 

Anyone know anything on his skills without the football?

 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Anyone know anything on his skills without the football?

 

According to a Raiders coach who was quoted in an article I read about Warren, he ran the wrong route in the Rams preseason game at least once, so his knowledge of the playbook sounds like it could use some improvement. PFF has his blocking graded at -2.9 over 100 snaps as well.

 

Despite those negatives though, I like how he's looking as a runner and a receiver and like him as a speculative cheap add in dynasty leagues, especially if you're desperate for RB talent. 

Edited by jetfan1983
misprints

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Watch the TD run against Greenbay.  It is an impressive run but the takeaway for me is how the players and coaches reacted, included Gruden.  They are giddy.  Reminds me of how Jeff FIsher and Heimerdinger reacted to rookie Chris Johnson running wild in preseason, knowing they found a game changer.

 

https://www.raiders.com/video/rb-chris-warren-iii-powers-his-way-into-the-end-zone-for-first-td

 

 

Edited by nine9s
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42 minutes ago, nine9s said:

Watch the TD run against Greenbay.  It is an impressive run but the takeaway for me is how the players and coaches reacted, included Gruden.  They are giddy.  Reminds me of how Jeff FIsher and Heimerdinger reacted to rookie Chris Johnson running wild in preseason, knowing they found a game changer.

 

https://www.raiders.com/video/rb-chris-warren-iii-powers-his-way-into-the-end-zone-for-first-td

 

 

Now I'm giddy too

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It seems, per Gruden's comment's, "needs to learn how to play without the football" that I see on Raiders forums, Warren cannot passblock well.   If it is determined that Warren is real far behind, could he make a team - i.e. would a team spend team developing that trait in a undrafted free agent? 

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7 minutes ago, nine9s said:

It seems, per Gruden's comment's, "needs to learn how to play without the football" that I see on Raiders forums, Warren cannot passblock well.   If it is determined that Warren is real far behind, could he make a team - i.e. would a team spend team developing that trait in a undrafted free agent? 

Seems doubtful that they would make a guy the focal part of their offense for an entire preseason, watch him excel... and then cut him knowing he would get snatched up by someone else. 

All of their RBs were either drafted by another team or undrafted. DeAndre Washington drafted in the 5th round by the Raiders, Jalen Richard UDFA. Don't think that means too much to this squad.

 

But by all means, don't grab him. It's not like he has shown he can carry a pile of people...

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Get hyped for Chris Warren III highlights tonight.

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12 for 41 ?, the 3 catches are nice, seems like if you are getting 12 carries in the 4th pre season game you are probably on the roster bubble.

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2 hours ago, wahoos1 said:

12 for 41 ?, the 3 catches are nice, seems like if you are getting 12 carries in the 4th pre season game you are probably on the roster bubble.

 

Not necessarily. Jonathan Williams got 16 and Boston Scott 12 for the Saints last night, and it's known that both RBs will make the squad and fill the Ingram role. 

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And Carson played for Seattle last night.  Also Aaron Jones for GB.  Hard to say what's going to happen here with Warren.  

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