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James Conner 2018 Outlook


sjm76

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1 minute ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

This whole Luck % debate is stupid and pointless, and doesn’t belong in the Conner thread.  Everyone is going to have their own opinion.

 

Can we all just agree to disagree, and save the Conner thread for updates on his injury/debate on his value going forward?

It comes up every year somewhere.   

 

Dont worry,  if you fart offkey around here they’ll delete it 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

It comes up every year somewhere.   

 

Dont worry,  if you fart offkey around here they’ll delete it 

 

Yeah I know, I’ve been around here long enough to see it multiple times.  We should just have it in an irrelevant player’s thread... like Trey Burton or Tom Brady.

 

Sucks to have to sift through those posts here while we are all trying to find updates on his status.

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16 minutes ago, Bish0p said:

 

It's not Chao's fault that Rhodes is the best actor in the history of the world, faking that injury after getting torched by Adams 

Or how about the concept of not diagnosing a player without examining them.

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Just now, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

Yeah I know, I’ve been around here long enough to see it multiple times.  We should just have it in an irrelevant player’s thread... like Trey Burton or Tom Brady.

 

Sucks to have to sift through those posts here while we are all trying to find updates on his status.

 

Well played sir :lol:

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I think Samuels is going to push for more work down the stretch. Conner had the concussion a couple weeks ago. He left the game briefly in pain last night prior to his injury. The Steelers will want to lighten his load, especially with Samuels looking solid out there

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Just now, Guwop said:

Reports are out that it is a contusion. Looks like he'll be fine for the fantasy playoffs 

 

I know what they are saying, but watch the play again (it's on NFL.com as one of the highlights of the game). https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018120208/2018/REG13/Chargers@Steelers?icampaign=scoreStrip-globalNav-2018120208


Nothing from that play looked like he suffered a contusion. It looks like he got his right foot caught underneath a Chargers defender and it got bent..slightly. As I noted earlier, never trust this guy:

 

giphy.gif

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, oban14 said:

Making the playoffs=70% luck.

Winning the playoffs=100% luck.

Disagree, especially on making the playoffs (especially with leagues of 12 or more teams). Over a season of 13 games, teams that 1. Don't make the mistake of overvaluing the QB position, 2. Don't make the mistake of overvaluing the TE position, 3. Load up on skill players at RB/WR, 4. draft a bench for upside rather than grabbing mid-level mediocre talents 5. Don't fall for recency bias and chase last week's points, or give up too early on underperforming players on small samples, 6. Buy low and sell high (points 6 and 7 are obvious and everyone knows this, but you will still see that the vast majority of players still wind up buying high and selling low) [much in the same way that people make similar mistakes in the stock market].  7. Playing with a short to medium range vision (winning the next four weeks) and not for instance drafting based on the fantasy playoff matchups a team has 14 weeks down the line when injuries and other events have changed the landscapes of defenses and offenses, seem to make the playoffs consistently year after year and are able to overcome injuries and capitalize on unexpected surprises. Teams that make 3 or more of the mistakes above sometimes luck into the playoffs, but usually don't.

 

yahoo gives fantasy football ratings for players (similar to chess ratings) and they seem to be pretty accurate in predicting what teams will be the likely playoff contenders and who will be the pretenders. 

 

There is a lot of luck in exactly which players get hurt and things like that, but there is a fair amount of skill in strategy and following sound principles. 

 

There's luck, but I think 70% is too high. 

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1 minute ago, Guwop said:

Reports are out that it is a contusion. Looks like he'll be fine for the fantasy playoffs 

 

Is there any concern that they’ll limit his reps and possibly work in Samuels a little more frequently to avoid aggravating his injury for the actual playoffs?

 

luckily they have the Ravens right behind them in the standings, so they can’t really get too conservative, but I am concerned that they limit his usage to prepare for the long run.

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3 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I think Samuels is going to push for more work down the stretch. Conner had the concussion a couple weeks ago. He left the game briefly in pain last night prior to his injury. The Steelers will want to lighten his load, especially with Samuels looking solid out there

 

I though the same thing heading into the game (played Samuels in some DFS and got lucky late) but it seemed as though they were still set on feeding Conner a TON. Remember, the Steelers are no lock to make the playoffs. At 7-4, they are no lock to win the division and could miss the playoffs if things break the wrong way. 

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Just now, wideopen21 said:

 

I know what they are saying, but watch the play again (it's on NFL.com as one of the highlights of the game). https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018120208/2018/REG13/Chargers@Steelers?icampaign=scoreStrip-globalNav-2018120208


Nothing from that play looked like he suffered a contusion. It looks like he got his right foot caught underneath a Chargers defender and it got bent..slightly. As I noted earlier, never trust this guy:

 

 

Indeed.  Ankle sprain was my first thought too.   But the guy landed on him so a contusion is certainly possible.    I’ll believe Conner is fine when he logs a full practice  

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9 minutes ago, JDE said:

 

Is there any concern that they’ll limit his reps and possibly work in Samuels a little more frequently to avoid aggravating his injury for the actual playoffs?

 

luckily they have the Ravens right behind them in the standings, so they can’t really get too conservative, but I am concerned that they limit his usage to prepare for the long run.

I'm not sure. Historically Tomlin has been a big believer in having a defined and definite RB 1 who gets a large majority of the touches. I'd be surprised if he changed that up now. 

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6 minutes ago, yanksman said:

AJ Green was "fine" too. Lets not start sucking each other's ***** just yet.

 

bingo.  thank you.  

 

oh, and we should all have found room for Samuels, especially after week 12's noggin knock.

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id like to see other's besides Rappaport report this..  Not that he's not trusted, but multiple sources would be nice. The AJ Green reference is completely true, how initially it wasn't a big deal. But then again, I remember Sony Michele getting bent like a Pretzel and he's back already. Thankfully I have a bye this week for the 1st week of the playoffs. Still holding my breath, but this is certainly trending upwards.

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All these people saying FF is mostly skill are playing in taco leagues. Skill is only a factor when playing with others who dont really know too much about fantasy. Now when you have people in a league who have the same knowledge or skill, guess what factor becomes more important? Thats right, LUCK.

 

You need luck to be able to get the players you want in the draft. You need luck for your players dont get injured. You need luck for your waiver wire pickups pan out. You need luck to score just enough to beat your opponent each week. Etc, etc, etc.

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8 minutes ago, Elcapitan said:

All these people saying FF is mostly skill are playing in taco leagues. Skill is only a factor when playing with others who dont really know too much about fantasy. Now when you have people in a league who have the same knowledge or skill, guess what factor becomes more important? Thats right, LUCK.

 

You need luck to be able to get the players  def  want in the draft. You need luck for your players dont get injured. You need luck for your waiver wire pickups pan out. You need luck to score just enough to beat your opponent each week. Etc, etc, etc.

So let me get this straight...if we assume all players in the league are the same skill, subscribe to the same strategies, and make decisions following the same paradigm- then it’s all luck.  

 

Agreed

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7 minutes ago, Elcapitan said:

All these people saying FF is mostly skill are playing in taco leagues. Skill is only a factor when playing with others who dont really know too much about fantasy. Now when you have people in a league who have the same knowledge or skill, guess what factor becomes more important? Thats right, LUCK.

 

You need luck to be able to get the players you want in the draft. You need luck for your players dont get injured. You need luck for your waiver wire pickups pan out. You need luck to score just enough to beat your opponent each week. Etc, etc, etc.

 

 

You have no idea what you are talking about. You need "luck" to get the people you really want drafted...you should know if every draft your first three picks. You should be able to group your between 3-5 players your 1-4 picks. Not getting a player you want happens all the time...I didn't get M Thomas as my 2nd round pick, but I got M Gordon instead, oh well. It's about not drafting a bust, which takes skill and also get value in your picks. Look at guys like Thielan, M Evans, JuJu who were drafted in the 3rd round. Guys like A jones, Chubb who were late round stashes. Even guys like Luck and Mahomes who are top QB's that weren't drafted as a top 5 QB in most drafts. The skill involves finding opportunities throughout the year to improve your squad in a game that's constantly changing. It takes about 70/30 skill vs luck throughout the regular season and about 60/40 or even 55/45 in playoffs. 

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2 minutes ago, hamburglar628 said:

 

 

You have no idea what you are talking about. You need "luck" to get the people you really want drafted...you should know if every draft your first three picks. You should be able to group your between 3-5 players your 1-4 picks. Not getting a player you want happens all the time...I didn't get M Thomas as my 2nd round pick, but I got M Gordon instead, oh well. It's about not drafting a bust, which takes skill and also get value in your picks. Look at guys like Thielan, M Evans, JuJu who were drafted in the 3rd round. Guys like A jones, Chubb who were late round stashes. Even guys like Luck and Mahomes who are top QB's that weren't drafted as a top 5 QB in most drafts. The skill involves finding opportunities throughout the year to improve your squad in a game that's constantly changing. It takes about 70/30 skill vs luck throughout the regular season and about 60/40 or even 55/45 in playoffs. 

 

So what happens when all the players in the league have the same way of thinking? Then what? What ends up being the deciding factor?

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5 minutes ago, Elcapitan said:

 

So what happens when all the players in the league have the same way of thinking? Then what? What ends up being the deciding factor?

 

"if everyone is thinking alike then no one is thinking"

 

- Winston Churchill

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18 minutes ago, Elcapitan said:

All these people saying FF is mostly skill are playing in taco leagues. Skill is only a factor when playing with others who dont really know too much about fantasy. Now when you have people in a league who have the same knowledge or skill, guess what factor becomes more important? Thats right, LUCK.

 

You need luck to be able to get the players you want in the draft. You need luck for your players dont get injured. You need luck for your waiver wire pickups pan out. You need luck to score just enough to beat your opponent each week. Etc, etc, etc.

 

Agree with most of that.   I don't think it's 100% luck.  You have to at least be good enough to put a winning team together.   But for sure, the more experienced the league, the smaller the margins.   With all of the readily available information, even more so.  

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If you have been in some leagues for a long time go back and look at past year's final standings. That answers the luck vs. skill questions. It's the same usual suspects contending. Yeah, sometimes contention means being the 3 seed versus the 1 and yes sometimes even the best players have off years (busts, injuries, etc.). Conversely, bad players can luck into a decent season by having that year's Gurley. However, over the long term the cream will tend to rise to the top. The bad players will tend to stay at the bottom. Then there is the third group in the middle.

 

One delineation is between hardcore players like is and more casual players but that's only part if it. While we all have access to the same information, we don't analyze it the same nor do we reach the same conclusions. We utilize different strategies. All that creates divergence over time, even among very active players.

 

If it's all luck, no need to be on here for info, right?

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