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James Conner 2018 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Getting rid of Conner makes absolutely zero sense at this point. His value is essentially at its floor, because everyone assumes he's useless after the bye. You're not gonna get any of the value that you should under the consideration that Bell could be traded and Conner could be the starter all year. There's no way in hell I'd trade him now. You'd be getting pennies on the dollar.

 

I mean his value could easily drop more:

 

1. If no new news comes out about Bell it’ll continue to drop as his expiration date nears

2. If it looks more likely that Bell will in fact return without issues then the doubt will disappear and his value drops

 

Im 4-0 right now and pretty confident that i’ll make the playoffs so I’m trying to trade him to a 0-4 or 1-3 team for an injured or underperforming player I think can help me later on.

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You are trading him before the Atlanta game?  That seems like a blow-up spot.  If you wait two days, you might be able to get more.

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4 minutes ago, acidafterburn said:

Or less if they fall behind and he doesn't get many carries. It's not like he's busted a ton of his dump off passes for long runs and TD's.

Atlanta gives up huge chunks of yards to RB's catching passes

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31 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You are trading him before the Atlanta game?  That seems like a blow-up spot.  If you wait two days, you might be able to get more.

 

Or maybe this will be his highest value bc your trading partner wants to use him for this game?

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3 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Or maybe this will be his highest value bc your trading partner wants to use him for this game?

This. Not to mention his clock is ticking with Bell coming back so there aren't too many games left where he'll clearly be the lead back. 

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Whats this guys value in a keeper league? Is he even a guaranteed to be the starter next year? I want to trade him but his value for a keeper league is great being outside the 10th round, assuming hes the for sure starter next year. 

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22 minutes ago, BookersB said:

Whats this guys value in a keeper league? Is he even a guaranteed to be the starter next year? I want to trade him but his value for a keeper league is great being outside the 10th round, assuming hes the for sure starter next year. 

 

That is anyone's guess. I definitely don't think he is guaranteed to be the starter next year. With Bell and Ridley expiring deals they will probably bring in a RB via draft or FA minimally for depth purposes. Tomlin doesn't have a history of really using multiple RBs but with the way the Steelers season has gone thus far he may not be in Pittsburg next year and under a new coach I could easily see Conner becoming part of a RBBC. I own him in a keeper and initially thought I had lucked into a RB1 for next year but that is a lot less clear now. Even if he retains the starting role I wouldn't be confident calling him a RB1 based off his recent usage. My league is only a 4 player keeper (although 16 teams) and his trade value was fairly low so I'm just going to hold on to him and hope for the best. Not sure what I'd pay for him if I were trying to get him. Would depend a lot on your roster, how you are doing this year and other potential keepers. Values in keeper/dynasty are less firm with the big unknown of what the future holds so really depends on how you feel about that future. I see Conner as a likely RB2 if he retains the job and I think it is more likely than not that he sees a reduction in his role next year. 

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1 hour ago, BookersB said:

Whats this guys value in a keeper league? Is he even a guaranteed to be the starter next year? I want to trade him but his value for a keeper league is great being outside the 10th round, assuming hes the for sure starter next year. 

 

Come back in late April 2019, after the NFL draft is done.

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6 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I mean his value could easily drop more:

 

1. If no new news comes out about Bell it’ll continue to drop as his expiration date nears

2. If it looks more likely that Bell will in fact return without issues then the doubt will disappear and his value drops

 

Im 4-0 right now and pretty confident that i’ll make the playoffs so I’m trying to trade him to a 0-4 or 1-3 team for an injured or underperforming player I think can help me later on.

I disagree, but even more so if I'm 4-0. I'm looking for upside. If Bell doesn't return, gets traded, gets hurt, Conner is in that RB10-15 range ROS. I just don't see him fetching anywhere that type of value right now in a trade. My guess is you'd get like a low-end WR3 for him who you'd likely never even start. 

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Bell owners should be acquiring Conner at this point.

 

Conner owners already missed their opportunity.  They might as well play it out.

 

I’m not sold on Bell coming back and playing week 7.... there might be another buy low on Bell opportunity coming.

 

In the meantime, might as well play Conner.  He hasn’t been as bad as some people are suggesting.  He’s a solid RB2 with upside.

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1 minute ago, crotchcrickets said:

conner owners should actually be trying to sell high right now

 

Do us all a favor and look up what "sell high" actually means.

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I doubt anyone is benching him, but FWIW Bovada is projecting a monster game.

 

4.5 rec 45.5 rec yards, 68.5 rushing yards, plus 0.8 TD (-250 and assuming + 13% vigorish due to existence of -115 bets on each side on even odds props = adjusted odds of TD of 80.7%). Not even including the chance of multiple TD which is a real chance.

 

Bovada projection in 0.5 PPR is 18.5. 

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On 10/6/2018 at 2:59 AM, crotchcrickets said:

conner owners should actually be trying to sell high right now

Me: Hey fellow owners! Conner is available and I'm Looking for a WR2. Make it happen true believers

 

Everyone else: Dude, Conner has not produced except for week 1 and Bell is coming back. I will offer you Christian Kirk for him

 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Me: Hey fellow owners! Conner is available and I'm Looking for a WR2. Make it happen true believers

 

Everyone else: Dude, Conner has not produced except for week 1 and Bell is coming back. I will offer you Christian Kirk for him

 

 

Well......Kirk is definitely a wr2......on his own team.

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Just now, cnewbykkn said:

 

Well......Kirk is definitely a wr2......on his own team.

That's what makes it such a good deal

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James Conner now has as many 20+ yard runs as Le'Veon Bell did last year on 321 carries. #Steelers

 

That 30-yard carry by James Conner was longer than any by Le'Veon Bell since Dec. 11, 2016 (the snow game)

 

i saw these onTwitter but didn’t bother to see if they are correct. 

 

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Basically. Anyone who plays Atlanta is supposed to do well 

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Le’Veon needs to pull an Earl Thomas... :unsure:

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