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Kris Dunn 2018-2019 Season Thread

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27 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

The relevance is his value is entirely tied to being among the league leaders in steals while providing 6 or so dimes because he is a drain in threes, percentages, and he doesn't score much. His per 36 steals were 2.1 and 2.5 his first two seasons; it's 1.5 so far this year. That's a considerable decline. 

 

His percentages, scoring and rebounds have been much higher than normal since he’s been back. You can’t point out that his steals are down in a short sample size and  simultaneously ignore the increase in other stats in the same said sample. It’s likely that his steals will have a positive regresssion while his other unusually high stats will regress negatively.

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4 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

His percentages, scoring and rebounds have been much higher than normal since he’s been back. You can’t point out that his steals are down in a short sample size and  simultaneously ignore the increase in other stats in the same said sample. It’s likely that his steals will have a positive regresssion while his other unusually high stats will regress negatively.

 

I agree--I said his steals likely will increase while the other numbers decline. It's just a concern at this point in time since he is, essentially, a category specialist. 

 

His field goal percentage is far higher than his past performance but his FT % is actually identical to what it was last year (73.7%). One note on his FG % is he is taking less threes this year so its possible, if that continues, that his FG % is higher than last year (it definitely won't stay at 49% in any scenario) but him taking less threes may be a product of being cold from the three point line early in the season. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ace_King said:

 

I agree--I said his steals likely will increase while the other numbers decline. It's just a concern at this point in time since he is, essentially, a category specialist. 

 

His field goal percentage is far higher than his past performance but his FT % is actually identical to what it was last year (73.7%). One note on his FG % is he is taking less threes this year so its possible, if that continues, that his FG % is higher than last year (it definitely won't stay at 49% in any scenario) but him taking less threes may be a product of being cold from the three point line early in the season. 

 

 

 

And at this point in time he's providing better value in other categories (positive z-score across pts rebs, asts, steals and FG% making him the 46th ranked player in the last 2 weeks), making him, essentially, not a category specialist.

 

Not sure what your point is.

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4 minutes ago, JStyles said:

Not sure what your point is.

 

He has the ability to be the league leader in steals. He is at 1.2. That under performance (sorry, going from 2.0 to 1.2 is under performance) is worth noting in a "season outlook" thread. People are too rose-colored when it comes to players who happen to be on their fantasy rosters. These player threads often turn into cheer leading threads. 

 

Yes, he has not been a category specialist over a 2 week period. Unfortunately, the season is 26 weeks long, not 2 and his exceptional 49% shooting from the PG position is not going to be anywhere close to his final average. This is the "season outlook" thread not the "last two weeks" thread.

 

If he does not ramp up steals that will drastically reduce his ROS value. Sure, his steals are likely to regress positively but there is a difference in degree (something some people evidently are having trouble grasping, which is surprising since fantasy is a game of degrees of performance...). He was drafted to be dominant in the steals category. If he is merely very good that won't sufficiently offset his weaknesses in multiple other areas to live up to draft day expectations.

 

If you drafted him for 13/5/6/1/0 with 0.5 threes and low percentages (not sure why people would select him at that cost, given who else would have been available, for those numbers but hey, it's your team) that's a different story but the idea behind drafting him to many was he was a rare case of a player available at a low draft cost with the capability to challenge for the league lead (no, not 18th) in a category. That's what made him an attractive late round/low dollar option. 

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19 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

He has the ability to be the league leader in steals. He is at 1.2. That under performance (sorry, going from 2.0 to 1.2 is under performance) is worth noting in a "season outlook" thread. People are too rose-colored when it comes to players who happen to be on their fantasy rosters. These player threads often turn into cheer leading threads. 

 

Yes, he has not been a category specialist over a 2 week period. Unfortunately, the season is 26 weeks long, not 2 and his exceptional 49% shooting from the PG position is not going to be anywhere close to his final average. This is the "season outlook" thread not the "last two weeks" thread.

 

If he does not ramp up steals that will drastically reduce his ROS value. Sure, his steals are likely to regress positively but there is a difference in degree (something some people evidently are having trouble grasping, which is surprising since fantasy is a game of degrees of performance...). He was drafted to be dominant in the steals category. If he is merely very good that won't sufficiently offset his weaknesses in multiple other areas to live up to draft day expectations.

 

If you drafted him for 13/5/6/1/0 with 0.5 threes and low percentages (not sure why people would select him at that cost, given who else would have been available, for those numbers but hey, it's your team) that's a different story but the idea behind drafting him to many was he was a rare case of a player available at a low draft cost with the capability to challenge for the league lead (no, not 18th) in a category. That's what made him an attractive late round/low dollar option. 

 

Excluding the first two games back when he was on a minutes restriction, and the one game he played before his injury, he has played 7 games this season.

 

In those 7 games, he has gotten 12 steals. This means he is just 2 steals below maintaining his steals average from last season.

 

Reading anything into a sample size that small is pointless - about as pointless as concluding he's now a 49% FG shooter.

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Yeah, you can't read much into his small sample but he has a "season outlook" thread so people will talk about his performance. He had 21 games with 3+ steals last year in 52 games. This year in 10 games he has none. He surely will regress positively in this area but it makes a difference if the final line is 1.6 or 2.2. I like Dunn. I am a Bulls fan. I drafted him in one league, traded for him in another. I'm not anti-Dunn by any means.

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Steals were the last thing on my mind when targeting this guy on draft day. Unfortunately he was drafted one pick ahead of me right when I was going to pounce. Oh well.  Personally I was targeting him simply because he's a solid PG that could be had in the middle to early late rounds. Specialist? I never looked at him as a specialist. In my eyes he's more than a specialist but to each his own.  Anyway by the time his number came up on draft day I would have hoped/imagined that people already addressed their Steals.  So in other words,  just because this guys steals are apparently down from last year, (super small sample size) I have a tough time with the idea he's been a draft letdown just because of it.  If you drafted him to be your sole steal provider then that probably was not a great strategy and in that case I could understand the frustration. I also don't buy the drag you down in other category argument.  That's why other players are drafted.  If he's bringing you down that much then you should probably not only look closely as to whether he fits your roster but you should also probably look closely at the rest of your build as well.

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Quote

  Personally I was targeting him simply because he's a solid PG that could be had in the middle to early late rounds. Specialist? I never looked at him as a specialist. In my eyes he's more than a specialist but to each his own.  Anyway by the time his number came up on draft day I would have hoped/imagined that people already addressed their Steals.  So in other words,  just because this guys steals are apparently down from last year, (super small sample size) I have a tough time with the idea he's been a draft letdown just because of it.  If you drafted him to be your sole steal provider 

 

For me he was part of a strategy to dominate blocks, steals on the theory that those were hard to source categories as well as fairly consistent categories week-to-week. He also happened to be a rare guy with a chance to lead the league in a category going that late. It was steals in his case but he would have been attractive to me if there was a guy with a legit shot to average 3+ blocks or 10+ assists going that late as well but his value was a bit greater to me given the "stocks" strategy than if he was a 10+ assists guy that late. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

For me he was part of a strategy to dominate blocks, steals on the theory that those were hard to source categories as well as fairly consistent categories week-to-week. He also happened to be a rare guy with a chance to lead the league in a category going that late. It was steals in his case but he would have been attractive to me if there was a guy with a legit shot to average 3+ blocks or 10+ assists going that late as well but his value was a bit greater to me given the "stocks" strategy than if he was a 10+ assists guy that late. 

 

 

That makes sense.

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13 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

That makes sense.

 

Yeah and in one league I also have George and Oladipo, so potentially three of the top five guys in steals along with Harris and Bledsoe. It locks down one category for me and then I have a slew of shot blockers. I figure with the dominance in two categories I have enough to do well elsewhere I should win consistently. Probably my team's only weakness is I don't have any of the mega scorers (I was going to use the word "elite" but didn't want to do that again lol!) so I'm at a disadvantage when facing a team with, say, Harden and LeBron in that category.

 

It was easier to execute a strategy in the auction draft than in the snake.

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10 hours ago, taenggg said:

Essays upon essays for a guy who hasn't even started 10 games. Geez. 

 

 

Analysis of a guy in a "season outlook" thread. Shocking. 

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Could we expect something along the lines of 17/5.5/6.5  2steals 0.5blocks on 45%/75%? Getting some serious FOMO watching his box scores after trading him with Nance to receive OPJ+JJJ.

Edited by finte

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1 hour ago, finte said:

Could we expect something along the lines of 17/5.5/6.5  2steals 0.5blocks on 45%/75%? Getting some serious FOMO watching his box scores after trading him with Nance to receive OPJ+JJJ.

 

Probably all of that is a legit possibility except perhaps scoring. The team has a lot of weapons so Dunn's scoring likely will be in the 13-15 range but Lavine, Lauri, and to a lesser extent WCP could lead to more assists for him than in the past.

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6 pts 1 reb 2 ast 2 TO at the half.

 

More like what you would expect from him. Lavine really killing the value.

 

 

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1 minute ago, JormaJormala said:

6 pts 1 reb 2 ast 2 TO at the half.

 

More like what you would expect from him. Lavine really killing the value.

 

 

 

Except for that fact that Lavine has 5 points, 2 boards and 2 assists at halftime 

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6 minutes ago, pdids911 said:

lavines usage is really hurting dunn

How is that.  Dunn just got up 15 shots and produced 8 assists. 

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I think Dunn's value is pretty solid if he can stay healthy.  Essentially elite assists and steals with decent points and positional rebounds.  His injury history and the Bull's fantasy playoffs schedule would make me want to sell if he can string together a month of good production, though.  I drafted him but jumped ship after his knee sprain.    

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7 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

How is that.  Dunn just got up 15 shots and produced 8 assists. 

I watched the game, and I can say there was atleast 4 shots of his that went in and out. Plus the usual 2-3 assists that teammates couldn't finish. Atleast he's always in position to have big lines

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1 minute ago, Dominator83 said:

I watched the game, and I can say there was atleast 4 shots of his that went in and out. Plus the usual 2-3 assists that teammates couldn't finish. Atleast he's always in position to have big lines

But....but....he doesn't make threes and lavine will kill his usage!

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