The 7th Beatles

Ryan Fitzpatrick 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Cotton Jones said:

i think it's valid when your QB can have a bad first half and get pulled and single handedly lose your week for you

qb position is a little more important than starting a boom/bust wr like desean jackson in your flex, if desean busts then oh well, it's not going to lose you your week

 

also are we going to pretend ryan fitzpatrick doesnt have an entire career to look at? 

pretty sure his boom/bust ratio over his career as a starter isn't 5/1

Ok sure, valid point.  Look at his schedule the rest of the way...he plays 1 good def the rest of the way.  He get WAS, @NYG, SF, Car, NO, @Bal, @Dal.  I mean if you're staying away from this guy because he has a shaky past, you're missing out.  

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1 minute ago, humanpuck said:

Ok sure, valid point.  Look at his schedule the rest of the way...he plays 1 good def the rest of the way.  He get WAS, @NYG, SF, Car, NO, @Bal, @Dal.  I mean if you're staying away from this guy because he has a shaky past, you're missing out.  

 

Car Bal Dal Wash are all 'good' defenses albiet more middle of the pack for good rather than like top 5 or anything but the only 'easy' games left are NYG and SF.  

 

NO while they are a good matchup on paper are going to kick the s--- out of TB and it will be ugly game.  They are a team on a mission. 

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1 minute ago, humanpuck said:

Ok sure, valid point.  Look at his schedule the rest of the way...he plays 1 good def the rest of the way.  He get WAS, @NYG, SF, Car, NO, @Bal, @Dal.  I mean if you're staying away from this guy because he has a shaky past, you're missing out.  

i got nothing against the guy, he's just very risky any time you start him. the steelers pass d was garbage and in the first half he couldnt do jack against them, think he threw 2 ints in the first half.

next time koetter might bench him at half. jameis wasnt active for that game

if you take the other 11 starting qb's in your league, then measure the distance between their floor and their ceiling, i doubt there are any of them that even come close to fitzpatrick's, thats what i mean by boom/bust, and at qb that can mean your week, which can also mean your season

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4 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Car Bal Dal Wash are all 'good' defenses albiet more middle of the pack for good rather than like top 5 or anything but the only 'easy' games left are NYG and SF.  

 

NO while they are a good matchup on paper are going to kick the s--- out of TB and it will be ugly game.  They are a team on a mission. 

Carolina DEF Pass YPG 19th in the NFL, Passing TD/Game 27th in the NFL

WASH DEF Pass YPG 20th in the NFL, Passing TD/Game 20th in the NFL

 

Not exactly the cream the of the crop here.

 

Dal I'll give you Dal, they're better than I thought, Baltimore was the 1 tough D I mentioned.

Edited by humanpuck

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2 minutes ago, humanpuck said:

Carolina DEF Pass YPG 19th in the NFL, Passing TD/Game 27th in the NFL

WASH DEF Pass YPG 20th in the NFL, Passing TD/Game 20th in the NFL

 

Not exactly the cream the of the crop here.

 

Dal I'll give you Dal, they're better than I thought, Baltimore was the 1 tough D I mentioned.

 

I said they were middle of the pack Ds which for this guy does not mean an easy matchup.  If anyone watched the game last week Carolina bloodied him up, it was by no means 'easy'. 

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1 minute ago, Zak0221 said:

 

I said they were middle of the pack Ds which for this guy does not mean an easy matchup.  If anyone watched the game last week Carolina bloodied him up, it was by no means 'easy'. 

You said "Car Bal Dal Wash are all 'good' defenses albiet more middle of the pack for good rather than like top 5," since when does being in the bottom half of the league in passing def and pass td's allowed constitute good?  Even Eli had a decent game against them.

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Just now, humanpuck said:

You said "Car Bal Dal Wash are all 'good' defenses albiet more middle of the pack for good rather than like top 5," since when does being in the bottom half of the league in passing def and pass td's allowed constitute good?  Even Eli had a decent game against them.

 

Way to move the goal posts.  I was talking about the overall unit not just their stupid 'pass defense' rating which we all know is not fully accurate to a defensive unit's full capability.  Some teams have such a good run d that teams over do it on the passing statistics which skews the defensive rankings.  Pass D vs Run D are highly subjective and if you watched the Carolina game this past week, their pass D was very stout, check out what they did to Mike Evans - he had 1 catch. 

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Just now, Zak0221 said:

 

Way to move the goal posts.  I was talking about the overall unit not just their stupid 'pass defense' rating which we all know is not fully accurate to a defensive unit's full capability.  Some teams have such a good run d that teams over do it on the passing statistics which skews the defensive rankings.  Pass D vs Run D are highly subjective and if you watched the Carolina game this past week, their pass D was very stout, check out what they did to Mike Evans - he had 1 catch. 

We're talking about QB production here so that's Passing Yards, Passing TD's and INT's.  This is fantasy football not real football.  I don't care about how they are as an overall unit.

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2 minutes ago, humanpuck said:

We're talking about QB production here so that's Passing Yards, Passing TD's and INT's.  This is fantasy football not real football.  I don't care about how they are as an overall unit.

 

Again you obviously did not watch the Carolina game.  Fitz had less than 200 yards passing midway through 3rd quarter.  If you blindly look at pass d or run d rankings you will not see the full picture at times and the total defensive ranking is a more accurate one to determine if a team is a 'good' matchup or not.  

 

Carolina dominated them and simply let all those yards acrew through s---y prevent D that didnt prevent all the dump offs.  Use Fitzmagic all you want I am not trying to stop you, all I am saying is his only easy matchups left this year is NYG and SF, the rest are not cake walks regardless what their silly individual passing D or run D rankings say. 

Edited by Zak0221

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Just now, Zak0221 said:

 

Again you obviously did not watch the Carolina game.  Fitz had less than 200 yards passing midway through 3rd quarter.  If you blindly look at pass d or run d rankings you will not see the full picture at times and the total defensive ranking is a more accurate one to determine if a team is a 'good' matchup or not.  

 

Carolina dominated them and simply let all those yards acrew through s---y prevent D that didnt prevent all the dump offs. 

And that's probably exactly what will happen again.  QB's on bad teams getting garbage time stats are fantasy GOLD.  Look where Car is on this...

 

QB Matchup Map

"DEF to avoid" and "DEF to exploit" columns rank team defenses in terms of strength of matchup; "Opp.": Week 9 opponent; "Rk": Tristan's matchup ranking, where 1 is the toughest defense and 32 is the easiest defense to face; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.

DEF TO
AVOID
OPP. RK ADJ.
FPA
  DEF TO
EXPLOIT
OPP. RK ADJ.
FPA
buf.png?w=110&h=110 @NYJ
1
-4.6   ind.png?w=110&h=110 JAX
32
2.9
hou.png?w=110&h=110 BYE
2
-3.4   nor.png?w=110&h=110 @CIN
31
3.2
min.png?w=110&h=110 BYE
3
-2.8   atl.png?w=110&h=110 @CLE
30
2.3
sea.png?w=110&h=110 @LAR
4
-1.4   tam.png?w=110&h=110 WSH
29
1.7
pit.png?w=110&h=110 CAR
5
-1.8   chi.png?w=110&h=110 DET
28
2.5
cle.png?w=110&h=110 ATL
6
-1.2   was.png?w=110&h=110 @TB
27
2.0
nyg.png?w=110&h=110 @SF
7
-1.1   gnb.png?w=110&h=110 MIA
26
1.0
jac.png?w=110&h=110 @IND
8
-0.6   mia.png?w=110&h=110 @GB
25
1.0
den.png?w=110&h=110 BYE
9
-1.0   sfo.png?w=110&h=110 NYG
24
0.7
lac.png?w=110&h=110 @OAK
10
-0.4   dal.png?w=110&h=110 @PHI
23
1.2
cin.png?w=110&h=110 NO
11
-0.7   det.png?w=110&h=110 @CHI
22
0.4
ari.png?w=110&h=110 @KC
12
0.0   car.png?w=110&h=110 @PIT
21
0.7
bal.png?w=110&h=110 BYE
13
0.0   oak.png?w=110&h=110 LAC
20
0.4
ten.png?w=110&h=110 NE
14
-0.3   nwe.png?w=110&h=110 @TEN
19
0.7
nyj.png?w=110&h=110 BUF
15
-0.2   phi.png?w=110&h=110 DAL
18
0.3
los.png?w=110&h=110 SEA
16
-0.5   kan.png?w=110&h=110 ARI
17
0.4

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5 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Way to move the goal posts.  I was talking about the overall unit not just their stupid 'pass defense' rating which we all know is not fully accurate to a defensive unit's full capability.  Some teams have such a good run d that teams over do it on the passing statistics which skews the defensive rankings.  Pass D vs Run D are highly subjective and if you watched the Carolina game this past week, their pass D was very stout, check out what they did to Mike Evans - he had 1 catch. 

 

Yeah, agree. The final stats were there, but how he got there is just as important.

 

It's dangerous to rely on 2nd half "catch up mode" stats with a guy like Fitz (or Winston). It's exactly in that scenario...down 35-7...where if Fitz had thrown another pick vs. a TD he could have got benched.

 

This is a high wire act right now. And that news about Winston possibly getting another look does not provide comfort.

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I cut Stafford for Fitz in a deep league a week ago and have no regrets yet.

 

The risk of him getting benched mid game is a lot higher than most QBs but I think after they did that to Jameis it’s less likely they bench Fitz to put him back. 

 

The week week to week upside is immense. Yes he’s had a career of mediocrity, but that offense has a ton of weapons and that defense couldn’t get a stop in a backyard game.

 

If you have a middling QB like cousins, Stafford, etc especially with bad matchups I’d rather ride Fitz and know you can get someone on waivers in most leagues if it doesn’t work out.

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This has prob. been discussed in this thread already but is any1 concerned with this matchup?? Alex Smith and the Skins really can't put up points so this very well could be a low scoring game.. 

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14 minutes ago, chud12 said:

This has prob. been discussed in this thread already but is any1 concerned with this matchup?? Alex Smith and the Skins really can't put up points so this very well could be a low scoring game.. 

 

Something tells me even Alex Smith won't have trouble putting up points against this Bucs defense.

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1 minute ago, eg4190 said:

 

Something tells me even Alex Smith won't have trouble putting up points against this Bucs defense.

 

^This.

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Just now, eg4190 said:

 

Something tells me even Alex Smith won't have trouble putting up points against this Bucs defense.

 

Lol I’ve watch Alex Smith for far to long as a Niner fan to have any confidence in him actually putting up points. The Skins skill players on offense are all hurt so I have my concerns that the ishh show that is Smith. 

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Just now, chud12 said:

 

Lol I’ve watch Alex Smith for far to long as a Niner fan to have any confidence in him actually putting up points. The Skins skill players on offense are all hurt so I have my concerns that the ishh show that is Smith. 

No to mention the entire O-line is dead

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17 minutes ago, nflcore said:

time to start the bucs defense then?

I mean, even the Falcons got 6 vs them.

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the odds of this becoming a defensive struggle seem slim.

the skins will find a way to move the ball somehow someway vs this awful defense. bibbs out of the backfield, reed, crowder..alex smith doesnt need time to find an open receiver

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35 minutes ago, The 7th Beatles said:

About to throw for 700 yards Sunday

 

 

Damn. I came here to share a pic of my league-winning QB, and you beat me to it. 

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3 hours ago, chud12 said:

This has prob. been discussed in this thread already but is any1 concerned with this matchup?? Alex Smith and the Skins really can't put up points so this very well could be a low scoring game.. 

 

I'm not sure that matters.

 

What is TB going to do? Run the ball?

 

TB throws and they play a fast paced game. If Wash doesn't score, more throws for Fitz.

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15 hours ago, The 7th Beatles said:

About to throw for 700 yards Sunday

 

 

I honestly don't give a flying *bleep* whether he is good or bad - this guy is the league MVP on style alone.

 

I think it's time to change my avatar.

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You know what he should do?

 

Get that Viking pirate look:

 

 

download.jpg

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