MrBean

Jrue Holiday 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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8 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

I feel like these shutdowns are fairly predictable. After the NBA trade deadline you should start unloading the shutdown risks. This year there aren't that many, just maybe Conley and Jrue. I think this actually shows that H2H takes more planning and foresight because you need to plan for every possible eventuality. Luck is always a factor in fantasy, but you can still increase your margin for error by building a superior team - like the Warriors in real life.

How was Jrue being shutdown predictable? The thought of that even potentially occurring would not have entered anyone's mind before Pelicans stated they wanted to sit AD and then there was the talk of the league not allowing it, so they reduced minutes. At that point, which was not very long ago, is when you may start to consider that..but the jrue update where it said he would be on reduced minutes was even more recent. 

You can definitely increase your margin for error by building better teams...in the last 5 years I finished first 4 of those years, yet didn't win the ship in any of them. Great deal of luck at the end, shutdowns, rest games, bad playoff schedules, etc. 

Lebron is being put on a min limit which is a minor form of a shutdown but one that can have a big impact on the owner...not predictable at all. There are some that are predictable GUYS, ex/ Conley, as you mentioned, Gasol if he remained with Grizzlies, i would have assumed Vucevic but apparently not. 

Edited by richg24

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6 minutes ago, richg24 said:

How was Jrue being shutdown predictable? The thought of that even potentially occurring would not have entered anyone's mind before Pelicans stated they wanted to sit AD and then there was the talk of the league not allowing it, so they reduced minutes. At that point, which was not very long ago, is when you may start to consider that..but the jrue update where it said he would be on reduced minutes was even more recent. 

You can definitely increase your margin for error by building better teams...in the last 5 years I finished first 4 of those years, yet didn't win the ship in any of them. Great deal of luck at the end, shutdowns, rest games, bad playoff schedules, etc. 

Lebron is being put on a min limit which is a minor form of a shutdown but one that can have a big impact on the owner...not predictable at all. There are some that are predictable GUYS, ex/ Conley, as you mentioned, Gasol if he remained with Grizzlies, i would have assumed Vucevic but apparently not. 

2/22/19 - Pelicans annoucned they will reduce AD and Jrue's minutes

1/28/19 - AD asked to be traded

Your first clue was when AD asked for a trade, because at that time Pelicans were 5 games under .500 and were basically already out of playoff contention. Whether Pelicans traded AD or not, you know it was going to be a rebuilding season for the Pelicans. If you ignore that first sign, then on 2/22/19 Pelicans announced their plan to reduce AD and Jrue's minutes. 

NBA teams can't come out and say they are "shutting down" a player, so they have to dress it up: minute restriction, no B2B, load management, etc., then at the end of the season just slap on an injury that you can't prove/disprove like tendinitis, general soreness, swelling, strain, you name it, then you shut them dowm. Trust me, when AD and Conley get shut down, they will also be using some type of vague injury as the reason. Vucevic was never a shutdown candidate because Magic is just still close enough to playoffs - he was only a trade candidate whose role would've diminished some if traded to a contender.

Come on man you are on this forum a lot so I know you are an experienced basketball fan. Unless you are under 25 years old and haven't experienced real life, you know this is how things work in real life, especially in a multi-billion industry. 

 

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25 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

2/22/19 - Pelicans annoucned they will reduce AD and Jrue's minutes

1/28/19 - AD asked to be traded

Your first clue was when AD asked for a trade, because at that time Pelicans were 5 games under .500 and were basically already out of playoff contention. Whether Pelicans traded AD or not, you know it was going to be a rebuilding season for the Pelicans. If you ignore that first sign, then on 2/22/19 Pelicans announced their plan to reduce AD and Jrue's minutes. 

NBA teams can't come out and say they are "shutting down" a player, so they have to dress it up: minute restriction, no B2B, load management, etc., then at the end of the season just slap on an injury that you can't prove/disprove like tendinitis, general soreness, swelling, strain, you name it, then you shut them dowm. Trust me, when AD and Conley get shut down, they will also be using some type of vague injury as the reason. Vucevic was never a shutdown candidate because Magic is just still close enough to playoffs - he was only a trade candidate whose role would've diminished some if traded to a contender.

Come on man you are on this forum a lot so I know you are an experienced basketball fan. Unless you are under 25 years old and haven't experienced real life, you know this is how things work in real life, especially in a multi-billion industry. 

 

Ya so Feb 22 was the first update about anything related to Jrue being shutdown. The other stuff was about AD, and ya it makes sense to shut him down of course because he is gone next season and they need to preserve him. Not the same thing with Jrue at all, who also had no injuries at all during the season to cause the team any concern about preserving him etc. 

Feb 22 is very close to most trade deadlines dude, most are default to like the 27th. so there was very little opportunity to predict any of this for jrue and then somehow trade him right before the deadline.

 

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18 minutes ago, richg24 said:

Ya so Feb 22 was the first update about anything related to Jrue being shutdown. The other stuff was about AD, and ya it makes sense to shut him down of course because he is gone next season and they need to preserve him. Not the same thing with Jrue at all, who also had no injuries at all during the season to cause the team any concern about preserving him etc. 

Feb 22 is very close to most trade deadlines dude, most are default to like the 27th. so there was very little opportunity to predict any of this for jrue and then somehow trade him right before the deadline.

 

Jrue was also on the trading block along with Randle and Miro. Pels are offially on rebuild mode. Why would they risk him having a serious injury this season if he is their second best trade asset behind AD? It was a no brainer he was getting shut down and will most likely get traded in the offseason

Edited by babyfaceassasin

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6 minutes ago, babyfaceassasin said:

Jrue was also on the trading block along with Randle and Miro. Pels are offially on rebuild mode. Why would they risk him having a serious injury this season if he is their second best trade asset behind AD? It was a no brainer he was getting shut down and will most likely get traded in the offseason

So when a player is on the trade block that automatically tells you that player is going to be shutdown? will lakers shutdown Kuzma, Lonzo, or the rest of the team they offered up in trade talks for AD? This is bull**** man. It's so easy to talk big in hindsight. This is the Jrue forum, so presumably the owners who followed him most closely: speak up jrue owners if you used your crystal balls to trade your top 15 player after the trade deadline?  I bet this happened in less than 2% of leagues, but I guess all the owners had no brains  and couldn't spot this no brainer. 

 

Edited by richg24

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10 minutes ago, richg24 said:

So when a player is on the trade block that automatically tells you that player is going to be shutdown? will lakers shutdown Kuzma, Lonzo, or the rest of the team they offered up in trade talks for AD? This is bull**** man. It's so easy to talk big in hindsight. This is the Jrue forum, so presumably the owners who followed him most closely: speak up jrue owners if you used your crystal balls to trade your top 15 player after the trade deadline?  I bet this happened in less than 2% of leagues, but I guess all the owners had no brains  and couldn't spot this no brainer. 

 

Lol Jrue’s only reason for being in New Orleans is leaving in the off season and that wasn’t news to anyone by the deadline.

I would come to the same conclusion and departed with him too.

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27 minutes ago, richg24 said:

So when a player is on the trade block that automatically tells you that player is going to be shutdown? will lakers shutdown Kuzma, Lonzo, or the rest of the team they offered up in trade talks for AD? This is bull**** man. It's so easy to talk big in hindsight. This is the Jrue forum, so presumably the owners who followed him most closely: speak up jrue owners if you used your crystal balls to trade your top 15 player after the trade deadline?  I bet this happened in less than 2% of leagues, but I guess all the owners had no brains  and couldn't spot this no brainer. 

 

I traded Jrue the moment I found out he was on the trading block but was not traded because why mess with your second best asset? Your argument regarding the lakers youngins getting shut down makes zero sense because we already know what Jrue can do. No one knows what the LA youngins can do yet so theyre being show cased. You're just pissed you made a dumb move and kept him so go cry somewhere else.

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42 minutes ago, richg24 said:

So when a player is on the trade block that automatically tells you that player is going to be shutdown? will lakers shutdown Kuzma, Lonzo, or the rest of the team they offered up in trade talks for AD? This is bull**** man. It's so easy to talk big in hindsight. This is the Jrue forum, so presumably the owners who followed him most closely: speak up jrue owners if you used your crystal balls to trade your top 15 player after the trade deadline?  I bet this happened in less than 2% of leagues, but I guess all the owners had no brains  and couldn't spot this no brainer. 

 

You can choose to be upset and chuck it up as "random stuff happening randomly for random reasons" or you can choose to analyze past events in order to predict future events. You will feel better about these ups and downs of fantasy when you choose to learn the NBA teams' PR language and inner workings of NBA politics. 

I am a Jrue owner, and I didn't choose to trade him, because I think the tradeoff between a worse player paying 36 mins vs Jrue playing 28-30 mins is about the same. I obviously made the wrong call there, but I am perfectly fine with that because I knew the risk of keeping Jrue. 

 

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1 hour ago, bballshinobi said:

You can choose to be upset and chuck it up as "random stuff happening randomly for random reasons" or you can choose to analyze past events in order to predict future events. You will feel better about these ups and downs of fantasy when you choose to learn the NBA teams' PR language and inner workings of NBA politics. 

I am a Jrue owner, and I didn't choose to trade him, because I think the tradeoff between a worse player paying 36 mins vs Jrue playing 28-30 mins is about the same. I obviously made the wrong call there, but I am perfectly fine with that because I knew the risk of keeping Jrue. 

 

That's fine. But i would like to know what jrue owners were able to trade him for. Some leagues its insanely hard to make a trade. Teams are all competitive and everyone wants to feel like they get the better end of the deal. I am curious why, if you knew of the risk (which according to you and babyface was essentially a certain shutdown), you chose to hold a player you know will become useless? if that is the case, sounds like bad management that you didn't try to move him. especially true when it's a first round type player that will make or break your team in h2h, not like a mid rounder or glue guy you can risk holding because no biggie to drop them later. 

Edited by richg24
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56 minutes ago, richg24 said:

That's fine. But i would like to know what jrue owners were able to trade him for. Some leagues its insanely hard to make a trade. Teams are all competitive and everyone wants to feel like they get the better end of the deal. I am curious why, if you knew of the risk (which according to you and babyface was essentially a certain shutdown), you chose to hold a player you know will become useless? if that is the case, sounds like bad management that you didn't try to move him. especially true when it's a first round type player that will make or break your team in h2h, not like a mid rounder or glue guy you can risk holding because no biggie to drop them later. 

The leagues I am in are just as you described: nobody wants to make a trade unless they feel like they are getting absolutely the better end. It's one of the reasons I chose to hold on to him. My thinking process was this:

If I trade him, what return can I get? 

It's not going to be a same caliber player, because everybody knows there's a risk of reduced mins and shutdown with Jrue, so I will definitely get a worse player. The best I can get is probably a player like Jamal Murray, Eric Bledsoe, or Jeff Teague?  I feel like I can easily find a player who puts up their level of production during the tanking weeks, so why take a for sure loss and do the trade when there's a small chance Jrue doesn't get shut down? In another word, I feel like it's a free bet keeping Jrue. If he gets shut down, I'll use FA to get production that's close enough to those aforementioned replacement guards. If he doesn't get shut down, then I just win. 

It's a calculated gamble with no downside since I am already prepared for the worst. Jrue won't make/break my team. A player that would've made/broken my team was Anthony Davis, whom I traded away for Jimmy Butler to minimize the risk, since AD's production is harder to replace (FT + BLK) compared to Jrue's (just typical guard stats)

 

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6 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

The leagues I am in are just as you described: nobody wants to make a trade unless they feel like they are getting absolutely the better end. It's one of the reasons I chose to hold on to him. My thinking process was this:

If I trade him, what return can I get? 

It's not going to be a same caliber player, because everybody knows there's a risk of reduced mins and shutdown with Jrue, so I will definitely get a worse player. The best I can get is probably a player like Jamal Murray, Eric Bledsoe, or Jeff Teague?  I feel like I can easily find a player who puts up their level of production during the tanking weeks, so why take a for sure loss and do the trade when there's a small chance Jrue doesn't get shut down? In another word, I feel like it's a free bet keeping Jrue. If he gets shut down, I'll use FA to get production that's close enough to those aforementioned replacement guards. If he doesn't get shut down, then I just win. 

It's a calculated gamble with no downside since I am already prepared for the worst. Jrue won't make/break my team. A player that would've made/broken my team was Anthony Davis, whom I traded away for Jimmy Butler to minimize the risk, since AD's production is harder to replace (FT + BLK) compared to Jrue's (just typical guard stats)

 

I got Jimmy for Jrue. I guess the Jimmy owner thought with the Tobias trade Jimmy was going to decline which he has been but not so bad that I would accept that trade. My guess is he did not think Jrue was getting shutdown.

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41 minutes ago, babyfaceassasin said:

I got Jimmy for Jrue. I guess the Jimmy owner thought with the Tobias trade Jimmy was going to decline which he has been but not so bad that I would accept that trade. My guess is he did not think Jrue was getting shutdown.

Good, savvy trade for you man. But I think the other owner made a good gamble too, because Jimmy hasn’t been Jimmy since the Tobias trade, and this is with Embiid out too.

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Jimmy is overrated as hell. At the time of the deal, you got rinsed. It might have worked out for you in the end, but that doesnt mean the trade was a good one at the time. You have to be lucky to be good.

 

And it just so happened that Jrue suffered a tricky injury. I'm sure if Jrue wasnt actually injured he would be out there balling with his teammates. He's not weak like AD. I'm glad the trade worked out for you. But let's not rub it in the face of others as an example of your brilliance.

1 hour ago, babyfaceassasin said:

I got Jimmy for Jrue. I guess the Jimmy owner thought with the Tobias trade Jimmy was going to decline which he has been but not so bad that I would accept that trade. My guess is he did not think Jrue was getting shutdown.

 

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25 minutes ago, justaguy said:

Jimmy is overrated as hell. At the time of the deal, you got rinsed. It might have worked out for you in the end, but that doesnt mean the trade was a good one at the time. You have to be lucky to be good.

 

And it just so happened that Jrue suffered a tricky injury. I'm sure if Jrue wasnt actually injured he would be out there balling with his teammates. He's not weak like AD. I'm glad the trade worked out for you. But let's not rub it in the face of others as an example of your brilliance.

 

I wasn’t rubbing anything in. I was just stating the obvious facts.  I made the trade as a strategy and knowing that Jrue was eventually gonna get shut down whether it would be by a fake or real injury. Like I said he is their second best trade asset and was on the trading block so why would they risk playing him when the season is done for the Pels?? He is most likely going to get moved this offseason. 

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3 hours ago, bballshinobi said:

The leagues I am in are just as you described: nobody wants to make a trade unless they feel like they are getting absolutely the better end. It's one of the reasons I chose to hold on to him. My thinking process was this:

If I trade him, what return can I get? 

It's not going to be a same caliber player, because everybody knows there's a risk of reduced mins and shutdown with Jrue, so I will definitely get a worse player. The best I can get is probably a player like Jamal Murray, Eric Bledsoe, or Jeff Teague?  I feel like I can easily find a player who puts up their level of production during the tanking weeks, so why take a for sure loss and do the trade when there's a small chance Jrue doesn't get shut down? In another word, I feel like it's a free bet keeping Jrue. If he gets shut down, I'll use FA to get production that's close enough to those aforementioned replacement guards. If he doesn't get shut down, then I just win. 

It's a calculated gamble with no downside since I am already prepared for the worst. Jrue won't make/break my team. A player that would've made/broken my team was Anthony Davis, whom I traded away for Jimmy Butler to minimize the risk, since AD's production is harder to replace (FT + BLK) compared to Jrue's (just typical guard stats)

 

 

Completely disagree that Jrue's production is just typical guard stats.  He literally contributed in every single category.  It would have been very difficult to trade him for another player that offered that kind of across the board production, and also owning Anthony Davis made it an even higher priority to keep Jrue to try to at least try to remain fairly stable in several categories.

People can say all they want that they saw this coming and that they traded him.  Continue patting yourselves on the back because you got lucky that you were right.  He was never officially put on the trading block.  He never said Davis was the only reason why he stayed with the Pelicans (he said it was a major reason, not THE reason).  He was put on a minutes limit, but that lasted all of 1 game.  He actually went right back to basically playing his normal minutes, which made it even more obvious that anybody who says they saw it coming just got lucky.

Edited by KilloWertz
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14 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

 

Completely disagree that Jrue's production is just typical guard stats.  He literally contributed in every single category.  It would have been very difficult to trade him for another player that offered that kind of across the board production, and also owning Anthony Davis made it an even higher priority to keep Jrue to try to at least try to remain fairly stable in several categories.

People can say all they want that they saw this coming and that they traded him.  Continue patting yourselves on the back because you got lucky that you were right.  He was never officially put on the trading block.  He never said Davis was the only reason why he stayed with the Pelicans (he said it was a major reason, not THE reason).  He was put on a minutes limit, but that lasted all of 1 game.  He actually went right back to basically playing his normal minutes, which made it even more obvious that anybody who says they saw it coming just got lucky.

 

Maybe it’s bad phrasing. I shouldn’t used “typical guard stats”, I should’ve said “he’s just a guard”. To me, guards are always easier to replace because typically there will be at least 1-2 competent guards on every team’s bench who are just waiting for the team to put the ball in their hands; when they get the ball they will put up numbers. Big men, on the other hand, are the opposite. Besides the superstars, there are not many bench bigs who can put up just because you give them 35 minutes.

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8 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

 

Maybe it’s bad phrasing. I shouldn’t used “typical guard stats”, I should’ve said “he’s just a guard”. To me, guards are always easier to replace because typically there will be at least 1-2 competent guards on every team’s bench who are just waiting for the team to put the ball in their hands; when they get the ball they will put up numbers. Big men, on the other hand, are the opposite. Besides the superstars, there are not many bench bigs who can put up just because you give them 35 minutes.

I don't disagree in regards to a lot of guards, or being able to replace an elite big man.  Late in this season there's been some solid ones that have surfaced out of nowhere (Robin Lopez, Joakim Noah, or even Kelly Olynyk in certain areas), but obviously for the most part it's tough to replace an elite big man and I wouldn't exactly call any of those elite per say.

One of my points mainly was that Jrue is definitely not a typical guard since he contributes in every single category (even Blocks).  A player like that is almost impossible to replace, just like an elite big man.  In my case, I'm just going to have to hope the rest of my team does enough to hold on.

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So while you guys continue to argue about stuff that means nothing to no one , ill just leave this right here:

 

David M. Grubb @DMGrubb

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“If it were up to him, he would play tonight.” - Alvin Gentry on Jrue Holiday’s status. Gentry holding firm on 7-10 day timetable so no further injury can occur.

Edited by KDilla35

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3 hours ago, KDilla35 said:

So while you guys continue to argue about stuff that means nothing to no one , ill just leave this right here:

 

David M. Grubb @DMGrubb

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“If it were up to him, he would play tonight.” - Alvin Gentry on Jrue Holiday’s status. Gentry holding firm on 7-10 day timetable so no further injury can occur.

 

If it was up to players, players would always play. Tanking is only for the organization

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2 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

 

If it was up to players, players would always play. Tanking is only for the organization

 

Did you miss the last sentence or something?

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12 minutes ago, KDilla35 said:

 

Did you miss the last sentence or something?

No, because that's just coach speak and PR script. What's Gentry supposed to say? 

"We are saying re-evaluation 7-10 days from now, just so it doesn't look like we already decided he's out for the season"

or

"He's really hurt, but 7-10 days from now there will only be maybe 10 games left in a meaningless season, so we will most likely just shut him down then"

Which do you prefer?

It's the same as a reporter asking an NBA player "how did you win the game tonight?" and he answers "we played with heart" or "we made more shots".

 

 

Edited by bballshinobi

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2 hours ago, bballshinobi said:

No, because that's just coach speak and PR script. What's Gentry supposed to say? 

"We are saying re-evaluation 7-10 days from now, just so it doesn't look like we already decided he's out for the season"

or

"He's really hurt, but 7-10 days from now there will only be maybe 10 games left in a meaningless season, so we will most likely just shut him down then"

Which do you prefer?

It's the same as a reporter asking an NBA player "how did you win the game tonight?" and he answers "we played with heart" or "we made more shots".

 

 

Whatever makes you feel better man. Only time will tell. Sorry I completely disagree with your analysis. 

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1 hour ago, KDilla35 said:

Whatever makes you feel better man. Only time will tell. Sorry I completely disagree with your analysis. 

Lol you are the one who’s trying to feel better. I am already resigned to the fact that I lost Jrue ROS

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9 hours ago, bballshinobi said:

Lol you are the one who’s trying to feel better. I am already resigned to the fact that I lost Jrue ROS

 

Oh I didn't lose Jrue, I just added him, and my playoffs don't start until March 18, and I have a first round bye. I don't see Gentry as much of a PR person, but we will see. You guys are too caught up in this tanking conspiracy especially when the rules changed this year and a few losses here and there don't effect anything. Good luck bro. 

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2 hours ago, KDilla35 said:

 

Oh I didn't lose Jrue, I just added him, and my playoffs don't start until March 18, and I have a first round bye. I don't see Gentry as much of a PR person, but we will see. You guys are too caught up in this tanking conspiracy especially when the rules changed this year and a few losses here and there don't effect anything. Good luck bro. 

Oooooh so you are hoping you hit the lottery. No wonder you are reading Gentry’s words so literally 

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