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2019 Draft Steals

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55 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

Is there any chance Greg Bird will ever be anything? Dude always injured, then this year he not only was injured but he sucked, lost his job in NY. Could he be a buy really low candidate? 

 

As a big of a Greg Bird stan as  I am, I can't see how Voit loses the job. He's been tremendous. Needs an injury to Voit and then maybe Bird will have some value.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

As a big of a Greg Bird stan as  I am, I can't see how Voit loses the job. He's been tremendous. Needs an injury to Voit and then maybe Bird will have some value.

 

No argument. Bird is only 25, but his career has been a dumpster fire with injuries and he has hit poorly this year, being replaced by Voit, who really looks good. I was just wondering about this guy's value. I could also see NYY moving him in the off-season, which would depress has potential a bit given he likely wouldn't be in such a strong lineup and wouldn't be hitting in the best park in the majors for lefty pull hitters. 

 

I was thinking of making a play for Bird in post-season trade negotiations, but haven't the foggiest idea of what his value is at this point. 

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1 hour ago, kwolf68 said:

 

 

 

I was thinking of making a play for Bird in post-season trade negotiations, but haven't the foggiest idea of what his value is at this point. 

 

It certainly should be minimal. I dropped him in a 16 teamer.  I have no problem buying low in a deep league, but I wouldn't want to pay a lot.

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17 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

It certainly should be minimal. I dropped him in a 16 teamer.  I have no problem buying low in a deep league, but I wouldn't want to pay a lot.

 

Yea thanks Brock. Our league is a VERY deep league, so almost all of us have spots open we could speculate on a guy like Bird. But you are right, he should not come expensive. The owner who has him is a great owner to deal with and I've done deals with him before, but I am not rushing to discuss a deal either as I am just not sold Bird will ever get it going. He has tremendous power potential, but so far hes been fools gold.

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with a caveat related to playing time and/or off-season moves made by the team, garrett hampson could provide tremendous value in colorado.

whit merrifield or trea turner type stats, only many rounds later. 

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isn't this an answer for next season?   The question is anyone's guess.    Stick a pin in a prospect or a player that had a bad year..

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19 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Matt Chapman

Mondesi 

Nimmo 

 

 

 

Ok, "Dancing Fool"    Chapman is going to go top 5 rounds.   Nimmo will be a mid rounder

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Early ADP has these players way too low:

Shane Bieber

Brandon Nimmo

Joe Musgrove

Max Kepler

Andrew Heaney

Nick Pivetta

Joey Lucchesi

David Dahl

 

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20 minutes ago, StarlinCastro said:

Early ADP has these players way too low:

Shane Bieber

Brandon Nimmo

Joe Musgrove

Max Kepler

Andrew Heaney

Nick Pivetta

Joey Lucchesi

David Dahl

 

what site do u use for drafts this early?

 

i know someone else mentioned an expert 2019 mock recently occurring.  do you have a link? thanks in advance

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3 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

what site do u use for drafts this early?

 

i know someone else mentioned an expert 2019 mock recently occurring.  do you have a link? thanks in advance

I do not have actual draft data, I have seen some mocks on Twitter however.  

 

The ADP's that I am using are from an ESPN source Fantasy Baseball Rankings for 2019 recently posted.  I divide the pick that they are going at by the number of teams in my leagues to determine which round they would go at (roughly).  

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13 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i know someone else mentioned an expert 2019 mock recently occurring.  do you have a link? thanks in advance

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Y_4czFhvl97m1FgRGd3Fg0o_13pp2ZQYydYEo0MoD6I/edit

 

For what it's worth: the threshold for "expert" here is "you write content for a blog or something, and Justin Mason thinks you're worthy of participation."  9 drafts times 12 per == 108 people, and it seems like a lot of the bigger name analysts are sitting these out.

 

(Housekeeping note: let's keep this thread focused on "steals", at least for the rest of the week, then we can open up the 2019 ranking threads.)

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3 hours ago, Ratso1022 said:

 

 

Ok, "Dancing Fool"    Chapman is going to go top 5 rounds.   Nimmo will be a mid rounder

Top 5? Hmm...

 

Ok then:

Mondesi Jr. 

Zack Eflin 

Daniel "Boom Stick" Palka

Laureano 

Tyler White

A guy who got a high-five from Mike Trout

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Peraza seems to be undervalued. .291 with 14HR and 23SB this year with 85 runs. Likely batting at the top of the order. 

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I don't know if I can call these players 'steals' yet until I see ADP data, but I think the following players will have an ADP > 90 and I will likely be targeting next year:

 

Conforto - huge 2nd half now that he is recovered from shoulder surgery. Full offseason to regularly train for next year.

Victor Robles - Trea Turner- lite numbers?

Josh James - I've been a big believer and I think he'll win the #5 starter next year. Solid shot at >200ks that you can get late in drafts.

Whitley/Reyes - both carry injury risk but their stuff is off the charts

Luis Castillo - I owned him in 3 leagues this year and the 1st half was a disaster, but he has been huge the past couple of months

Jonathan Villar - regular playing time at the top of the order in Camden Yards with a green light on the basepaths

Miles Mikolas - I was skeptical of him at the all-star break but he has been fantastic year-long minus the k's

Nick Senzel - injury this year may suppress his ADP next year

Garrett Hampson - assuming he has a full time role wouldn't be surprised to see .300 average with 10 hr's and 30 bags

Kyle Tucker - his flop this year in a small sample may push his ADP down some and if it does I'll own him everywhere

Franmil Reyes - I've had a love/hate relationship with him this year but I've become a believer

Shane Bieber - his ERA will likely keep his cost down next year but a k/9 over 9 and bb/9 under 2 in 114 innings are exciting

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On 9/24/2018 at 9:33 PM, DidiFan said:

Yes agree Gardner is gone. 

McNeil doesn't have Turner's power. But his ability to put the bat on the ball is excellent. Regardless still really like him next year too. 

 

True for today, but Justin Turner didn't have Justin Turner's power until he hit 16 HR as a 30-year-old.  McNeill has 22 HR across three levels this year, and a higher ISO than Turner ever had in his first ten years.

 

Not saying it "will" happen, but Turner is a fair comp for McNeil's upside.

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1 minute ago, Ben Edelman said:

 

True for today, but Justin Turner didn't have Justin Turner's power until he hit 16 HR as a 30-year-old.  McNeill has 22 HR across three levels this year, and a higher ISO than Turner ever had in his first ten years.

 

Not saying it "will" happen, but Turner is a fair comp for McNeil's upside.

That's true for Turner's case he did break out older. I just don't feel the batted ball data we have right now is in McNeil's favor in terms of supporting 20 homers he *could* get there I'm just not convinced it's a likely outcome. But probably better to discuss in his 2019 outlook thread when we hit the off season. Regardless I still really like him as a potential value next year. 

 

Anyways just thought of another random name

Slippin' Jimmy Nelson assuming he's back next year for the Brewers. 

 

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On 9/26/2018 at 6:19 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

Top 5? Hmm...

 

Ok then:

Mondesi Jr. 

Zack Eflin 

Daniel "Boom Stick" Palka

Laureano 

Tyler White

A guy who got a high-five from Mike Trout

Mondesi won't be a steal, guys will reach for him because of the 30 steals in half a year

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What about Trevor May? Rotoworld thinks the 29-year-old could be the Twins closer in 2019. Looking at their current roster, it doesn't seem like a stretch. And it seems unlikely the Twins would spend a boatload on a closer.

 

May had dominating numbers after coming back from TJ surgery and had three saves in the last week of the season.

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Ryan O'Hearn may be a guy that still slips.  If he has a defined role heading into next year, could be a cheap source of power and other counting stats (if he can stay in the top 5 in the batting order).

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On 9/25/2018 at 12:42 PM, kwolf68 said:

Is there any chance Greg Bird will ever be anything? Dude always injured, then this year he not only was injured but he sucked, lost his job in NY. Could he be a buy really low candidate? 

 

I'm not sure he'll be a particularly good or bad value because I expect that at best he'll have to compete for the job in spring training. So assuming you draft after the decision has been made he'll be going where an everyday first baseman with power in that lineup would go, or he won't be drafted at all. 

 

That is of course absent any offseason moves they make that might affect the position. I can frankly see a scenario where he is traded too.

 

I think the better chance of a steal in that lineup is Gary Sanchez. I suspect this year was more the outlier. 

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11 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

What about Trevor May? Rotoworld thinks the 29-year-old could be the Twins closer in 2019. Looking at their current roster, it doesn't seem like a stretch. And it seems unlikely the Twins would spend a boatload on a closer.

 

May had dominating numbers after coming back from TJ surgery and had three saves in the last week of the season.

 

Not a bad guy to take a flier on. Where is his competition? I think this is a nice, under the radar thought. Sadly in my league he's on a team. 

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