EmbargoLifted

2019 First Rounders Discussion

Recommended Posts

Mookie Betts is distant number one player.  He ran LAPS around Trout this year.  Betts missed 26 games, played 4 less than Trout and was number one overall player to Trout being number 10.  Red Sox lineup only going to continue to improve with Benintendi emerging as a top tier player, JD top 3 slugger in MLB, and Xander who made tremendous slugging strides as he’s young and busted out.  This lineup is set to be monsterous for years to come.  Angels are riddled with middling talent and some awful contracts.  Betts is easily #1 going into next season.  

Edited by Cmilne23
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I could honestly see Altuve going at a relative discount next year. Doubt he was on many championship teams this year and some have probably soured on him. Not saying he's still a first-rounder, but with 2B on the whole being iffy, he's still plenty valuable.

 

Edit: Also worth noting that Jose Ramirez will lose 2B eligibility next year in ESPN (16 appearances in 2018), so Altuve will carry even more value there.

Edited by TribeFoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-Bregman is easy top-10 for me. Elite approach gives him lofty floor. ballpark+lineup+shortstop eligibility+youth (age 24) give him lofty upside. 

-Altuve's price will be too rich for my blood. I almost prefer Acuna over him because I think their home run differential could be 25+, and steals won't be as far off as you'd think.

-Story and Baez feel risky in the top 20, though I trust Story a fair bit more, and I believe in Acuna's skills more than both. Still, I much prefer the safer floor of a Freddie Freeman type around the 1-2 turn over a volatile Baez skillset. 

-I understand the temptation to take Mookie #1, but on a per at-bat basis Trout is still my top dog. I owned him this year for the first time (flipped Trea/Devers/Realmuto/Welker for him in dynasty) and it's unreal what he provides each game. 2-4 with a run feels disappointing. 

-I expect a bit of power regression from the Indians duo but they are totally worthy of top-5 picks. What amazing seasons. I prefer Lindor over Jose by a smidgeon.

-YELICH FOR MVP

-Arenado is interesting. Puts up monster power stats every year, yet rarely finishes top-20 in any Player Rater type system. Must be the lack of steals. I think he is slightly overrated for fantasy purposes, but still worthy of a 1st round pick because the floor is so, so high. And the peripherals suggest he is still improving. 

-I'll be all over Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa as uber-talented bounce back candidates.

-Of the group EmbargoLifted mentioned, I think Turner will see the biggest variation in pick slot aside from Baez/Story. It really depends how much you value stolen bases, and how much untapped upside you think he has. Personally I'd have him in the back end of round 1, right before the ace pitchers. 

-again just want to emphasize how terrific Bregman is, and to me he is probably the best offensive fantasy player outside of the big-4 at the top. My top-5 would go:
Trout, Mookie, Lindor, Ramirez, Bregman. 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yanks#1 said:

Altuve will still only be 29. He had a knee injury in 2018 (first time in career on the DL) so it's not like the speed just disappeared. I'll likely be targeting him because he'll be undervalued. As much as he hits, there will always be a lot of chances for SB.

 

yea but steals are weird like that. look at charlie blackmon.  look at carl crawford.  if altuve is now a 15-20 sb guy he loses a good deal of value.  i know he did it back to back years, but you cant bank on 24 homeruns either.  if hes a 14 homerun 18 sb guy u cant take him in the top 15 or even top 20-25 tbh.  especially since houston hates running i dont think this is unlikely.  at this point id even say whit merrfield is ahead of altuve.

Edited by jfazz23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Mookie Betts is distant number one player.  He ran LAPS around Trout this year.  Betts missed 26 games, played 4 less than Trout and was number one overall player to Trout being number 10.  Red Sox lineup only going to continue to improve with Benintendi emerging as a top tier player, JD top 3 slugger in MLB, and Xander who made tremendous slugging strides as he’s young and busted out.  This lineup is set to be monsterous for years to come.  Angels are riddled with middling talent and some awful contracts.  Betts is easily #1 going into next season.  

 

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Altuve is an early second-rounder for me. Top 15, but I wouldn't take him in the first anymore. 

 

respectfully disagree with both of these.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Bregman going 30/10  100/100 .286 isnt good enough to reach 1st round value. I dont know how correa is going to be a steal next year if hes going before pick 30.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

-Bregman is easy top-10 for me. Elite approach gives him lofty floor. ballpark+lineup+shortstop eligibility+youth (age 24) give him lofty upside. 

-Altuve's price will be too rich for my blood. I almost prefer Acuna over him because I think their home run differential could be 25+, and steals won't be as far off as you'd think.

-Story and Baez feel risky in the top 20, though I trust Story a fair bit more, and I believe in Acuna's skills more than both. Still, I much prefer the safer floor of a Freddie Freeman type around the 1-2 turn over a volatile Baez skillset. 

-I understand the temptation to take Mookie #1, but on a per at-bat basis Trout is still my top dog. I owned him this year for the first time (flipped Trea/Devers/Realmuto/Welker for him in dynasty) and it's unreal what he provides each game. 2-4 with a run feels disappointing. 

-I expect a bit of power regression from the Indians duo but they are totally worthy of top-5 picks. What amazing seasons. I prefer Lindor over Jose by a smidgeon.

-YELICH FOR MVP

-Arenado is interesting. Puts up monster power stats every year, yet rarely finishes top-20 in any Player Rater type system. Must be the lack of steals. I think he is slightly overrated for fantasy purposes, but still worthy of a 1st round pick because the floor is so, so high. And the peripherals suggest he is still improving. 

-I'll be all over Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa as uber-talented bounce back candidates.

-Of the group EmbargoLifted mentioned, I think Turner will see the biggest variation in pick slot aside from Baez/Story. It really depends how much you value stolen bases, and how much untapped upside you think he has. Personally I'd have him in the back end of round 1, right before the ace pitchers. 

-again just want to emphasize how terrific Bregman is, and to me he is probably the best offensive fantasy player outside of the big-4 at the top. My top-5 would go:
Trout, Mookie, Lindor, Ramirez, Bregman. 

 

 

10 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

If Bregman going 30/10  100/100 .286 isnt good enough to reach 1st round value. I dont know how correa is going to be a steal next year if hes going before pick 30.

 

the board seems very split on bregman.  i know @colepenhagen and i debated him in the other first round thread.

 

im agree with you guys that not only do i think bregman is a first rounder, but hes closer to 5 than he is 12.  i might have to put him behind yelich now.  i think yelich is a legit power threat now.  maybe not 35, but 25. but i think ill possibly take bregman over JDM and Arenado even.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

the board seems very split on bregman.  i know @colepenhagen and i debated him in the other first round thread.

 

im agree with you guys that not only do i think bregman is a first rounder, but hes closer to 5 than he is 12.  i might have to put him behind yelich now.  i think yelich is a legit power threat now.  maybe not 35, but 25. but i think ill possibly take bregman over JDM and Arenado even.

You can set.your watch to arenado. Bregman might lose the steals. But i wouldn't fault you for taking bregman.  Mind you,i tried being "safe" this year with goldy and bryant.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

You can set.your watch to arenado. Bregman might lose the steals. But i wouldn't fault you for taking bregman.  Mind you,i tried being "safe" this year with goldy and bryant.

i think its just as likely that bregman steals 17 than stealing less than 10

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/1/2018 at 4:33 PM, azeri98 said:

No Trevor Story? He had a better year than Turner and the same years as Baez and Machado, i don't think Turner is a 1st rd pick, not for me anyway I would put a lot more guys ahead of him including Acuna, Freeman, Judge, Bregman, and Goldy

 

Story and Baez are pretty identical as far as fantasy goes... Story honestly has a slight advantage with the more walks.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Story and Baez are pretty identical as far as fantasy goes... Story honestly has a slight advantage with the more walks.

i think park and team favor story too. even if slight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i think park and team favor story too. even if slight

And he’s more efficient on the bases which makes his SB more sustainable.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think top 3 will be pretty much the same in most leagues and their ADP will likely show that: Trout, Betts, Ramirez. 

Lindor probably will be consensus 4th. 

 

After that, I think its anyone's guess with lots of names that will fall into place. 

Some thoughts on some of the names. 

 

Yelich - he would probably be 4th for me, his power surge is typical of a hitter of his type, that linedrive doubles gap guy who gains more power as he gets older, that used to be the old "predictor" for power outbreak in the 20's, his swing and player type is a bit of that more "classic" style.  I agree some might want to see a 2nd year of it before they take him top 5, but Im a buyer, especially in Milwaukee and an NL Central weighted schedule. 

 

Altuve - my guess is his ADP will be around the "turn" 10-12 in most sized leagues.  Little bit of agism, little bit of just wanting to go a different direction and take players they "like" better.  

 

Bregman - he will be a 1st rounder, although Im not sure I go there.  He had the 1 ridiculously hot month plus another spot where he went 5 jacks in 7 games and he is a notoriously slow starter (last two years he has 1 HR total in March/April) I think there is not a lot of profit to be had on him as a 1st rounder, but plenty of loss potential.  

 

Harper/Machado - both will likely be 1st rounders, though I kind of tread a little lighter myself on big free agents. 

 

Goldy - people (including myself) valued him a little higher because of the bags in the past, his 7SB puts him in line with other 1B and probably drops him out of 1st for me.

 

Acuna - given his ability (especially bags which are premium) and just how the general public tends to go gaga over youth - I see no way this guy does not have a top 12 ADP. 

 

JD Martinez will get taken a little lower than he should - but will still be 1st rounder - age and just wanting to take someone more "sexy"  

 

Turner - will be a 1st - bags are a premium, he still has that "upside" to where people see 20-60.  

 

Arenado - with guys like Donaldson and Bryant dropping, I think that elite 3B potential is very appealing, guy is a .290, 35, 110, 100 lock who is still on the right side of his prime. 

 

Stanton and Judge - I think Stanton will have just slightly higher ADP, I think both will be around the turn ADP in standard league to maybe the first half of 2nd round.  so like 10-18 they will both fall in that range. 

 

Soto - probably doesnt run enough for 1st round, but will be around 16-20ADP.  

 

I dont think you will see any pitchers with a top 12 ADP certainly not top 10.  I think the last couple years there have been this little elite tier that many people wanted one of them, but I think that has expanded enough to where people wont panic and think they have to get one which raises their ADP.   I think the mindset of "bat-bat in first 2 rounds and take best available to fall in 3rd" will be a popular outlook next draft season and thus you will see some pitcher ADP regression at the top.  

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Baez is definitely a riskier take in the 1st round/early 2nd than some of the other names mentioned but i think he's a lock at this point in his career for .275+ BA, and 30 HR/ 100 RBI with at least 10 SB ... and i also think there's still some untapped potential there .. Baez has world class tools and athleticism and is one of those really dynamic/electric players that i'm convinced still has another level to their game 

 

I can see Baez settling in as a nice 30/20 player with an above average batting average and all the runs/rbi that come with hitting in the middle of one of the better lineups in the league. And don't forget the elite glove that allows him to get starts all over the infield and keep multi position eligibility (something very underrated in fantasy) 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, parrothead said:

Stanton and Judge - I think Stanton will have just slightly higher ADP, I think both will be around the turn ADP in standard league to maybe the first half of 2nd round.  so like 10-18 they will both fall in that range. 

 

 

 

 

 

Depends on the format. In OPS/OBP leagues, Judge should be going a lot higher than Stanton. In standard 5x5 types it's more of a pick'em.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like the top 4 is pretty set.  

 

IMO you're going to see three guys going 1st overall next season in most drafts...Trout, Betts, Ramirez.  Lindor will float around in the top 4.  After that it's a toss up.  

 

My super preliminary first round

 

1.  Trout

2.  Ramirez

3.  Betts

4.  Lindor

 

5.  Manny

6.  Yelich

 

7.  Scherzer

 

8.  JD

9.   Turner

10.  Arenado

11. Harper

12.  Story

 

Leaving out guys like Bregman, Judge, Baez, Acuna, Benintendi, Blackmon

 

I think the power/speed combo guys will rise.  Acuna will get some helium with his second half.  He was basically Yelich in August & September.  

 

2nd round you're going to see the ace run.  Kluber, Snell, Verlander, Degrom, Kershaw, Nola.  You'll see some of these guys go in the first due to teams grabbing an ace/ace combo.  

 

Just looking at this, I think I'd want to draft 3rd overall.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel Arenado gets underrated. Only guys I would take over him is Trout, Betts, Ramirez and Lindor. Playing at Coors always gives him a higher floor/ceiling than other 1st rounders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Evincar said:

I feel Arenado gets underrated. Only guys I would take over him is Trout, Betts, Ramirez and Lindor. Playing at Coors always gives him a higher floor/ceiling than other 1st rounders.

I would agree...not sure why.  But I think he will likely be in that 5 spot ADP this year, as 3B perhaps a little thinner than last couple years.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I would agree...not sure why.  But I think he will likely be in that 5 spot ADP this year, as 3B perhaps a little thinner than last couple years.  

 

1 hour ago, Evincar said:

I feel Arenado gets underrated. Only guys I would take over him is Trout, Betts, Ramirez and Lindor. Playing at Coors always gives him a higher floor/ceiling than other 1st rounders.

 

1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Seems like the top 4 is pretty set.  

 

IMO you're going to see three guys going 1st overall next season in most drafts...Trout, Betts, Ramirez.  Lindor will float around in the top 4.  After that it's a toss up.  

 

My super preliminary first round

 

1.  Trout

2.  Ramirez

3.  Betts

4.  Lindor

 

5.  Manny

6.  Yelich

 

7.  Scherzer

 

8.  JD

9.   Turner

10.  Arenado

11. Harper

12.  Story

 

 

kinda agreeing with arenado consistency

right now mine is

 

1 trout

2 betts

3 joram (although i think u can take joram 2nd)

4 lindor

5 Arenado

6 Yelich

7 jdm

8 bregman

9 turner

10 machado

11 scherzer

12 Story

 

i wont be touching harper in the first.  will let someone else take the big risk/reward player.  i understand if u want to swap any of bregman, turner, machado too

Edited by jfazz23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ya not going to fault anyone who takes Arenado 5th.  He doesn’t run and didn’t hit .330 so that’s why I projected him there 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Ya not going to fault anyone who takes Arenado 5th.  He doesn’t run and didn’t hit .330 so that’s why I projected him there 

 

ya and i wouldnt fault anyone for taking yelich or turner over him if they have a plan and want steals.

 

or if they take JDM thinking he can repeat (which i dont)

 

i really wont criticize anyone for their top 10-15 this year outside of maybe the top 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trout

Betts

Jose Ramirez

Lindor

Yelich

Turner

Scherzer

Machado

JDM

Arenado

Bregman

Sale

 

Close

Altuve, Goldy, Kluber, Degrom, Harper, Bryant, Blackmon, Stanton

 

I love Harper, totally don't hate him at all, but at a certain point you just cant really bet on that MVP year every year when he does it once. He could do it next year, but I'm willing to let it go.  Another thing, players who sign huge contracts generally have down years adjusting and living up to it.  If the price is a top 12 pick, I'm out on Harper this year but that's more of a gut thing than anything, he has #1 player upside still. 

 

Story and Baez were amazing this year. I dont like betting 1st round picks with high K low walk guys. I'll take the L on those at that price. 

 

No Blackmon vs Betts debate this year? #Scoreboard

Edited by brockpapersizer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.