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Elfrid Payton 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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3 hours ago, JormaJormala said:

I made statistical analysis on him compared to his years in Orlando (and little bit in Phoenix). Mind you, I'm looking at this as points league player.

 

What I'm looking at is:

 

Is Elfrid Payton now the same he was at Orlando (and Phoenix) or is he better/worse?

 

If he is what he has been before, he is borderline to even own. If so his best case scenario is to be the last guy on my 14 man roster and cutworthy when playoffs start and I'm looking for plug-and-play options for better short term value. So I will try to find hope for him be better than he was before as I might just rather cut my losses if I can find player with better long term value what he has. 

 

He has been very consistent as a fantasy player through his career. He was 75.4 fp as a starter last season. He was at that mark on his rookie season too and his worst season was his sophomore year 2015-2016 when he barely notched a 70 fp. Elfs third season was his best in fantasy and in IRL. He had career high on blocks, points, rebs and assist. That was good enough for 77.5 - 78 fp for the season.

 

[For reference, Kris Dunn was 81 last season and has been 81 this season too. Jeff Teague has been 80 this season (83 last season) and Eric Bledsoe has been close to 81 this season. Guys like Trae Young, Malcolm Brogdon and Ricky Rubio are something between 72-73 points and are at the last line of roster worthy point guards on the board. You can find guys like SGA, Reggie Jackson and DJ Augustin from the waiver.]

 

His minutes were highest on his rookie year when he had 30.3 minutes per game. After that it has been consistently between 28.6 - 29.4 minutes. I think that is pretty interesting. I do recall critique for his outside shooting but also for his lackluster defensive presence. Maybe those combined explain his rather low minutes.

 

As far as shooting goes, he has taken a step up in ft shooting. Being a +.500 shooter to +.600 shooter. He has been better around the rim too as his fg% was just over .400 for first two seasons and over (.520) or close (.471 - .490) to .500 since then. He doesn't like the three ball and looking at his percentages I don't blame him.

 

Now this season. I took away those two games where he got injured. He is looking worryingly to fall on the category of "he is what he is". So far he has played 29.2 minutes per game and produced very familiar 75.1 fantasy points during that time. His numbers don't look that much different other than his 3pt shooting and free throws that are at .412 and .750. Both are considerably better than his career averages. That might indicate that his scoring might come down unless he has developed those areas. Its too early to tell. 

 

The overall feel is that he has so much more talent around him than before. People who score and shoot a lot (AD, Jrue, Miro, Randle), people who can make plays for others (Jrue, Randle), people who rebound a lot etc... At the same time Pelicans is very attack minded unit and produces a lot of stats. The  bigger role might not be there, but the stats are. Maybe he doesn't have as much finger print on this team and how it will run, but he can keep up with his past stats just because there are more to have.

 

If he has developed his shooting, it would help things. But the most important thing would be to get more playing time (maybe via efficient shooting and defense not being a factor of players value?). Just  by playing 32 minutes per game with same production would make him a 82 fp player.

 

I like the idea of Elf being playmaker in a attacking minded team (2nd offrtg, 5th pace) with better percentages. There is no room for huge improvement for fp/minutes, but he can easily hold his value and have small uptick in best case. But the real factor is him playing more. If you look what they got for guards it really should not be a competition unless the coach wants to run it through Jrue time to time and have more shooters on the field with him. 

 

Summary: I'm optimistic that he can at least hold his past value of 75+ fp and have hope for couple of a points more. Can he get to that Dunn-Teague-Bledsoe level? Yes, but only if his minutes go past 32 per night. Someone more in tune with Pels can speculate on the odds of that happening. 

 

 

The minutes in the last four games before his first injury (first four games of the season) were as follows:

 

Season opener - 37 mins vs Houston

2nd game - 24 mins vs SAC (was a blowout)

3rd game - 36 mins vs LAC

4th game - 31 mins vs BKN

 

All games were wins and Gentry did say he wanted to use the same starting line ups as these games going forward. With Mirotic back as well, it will just be a matter of time.

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Not looking good. What is the excuse for not playing more than 26 minutes last night? The stocks saved him this time, but in the long run its hard to see him being effective enough with low minutes.

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He is getting em minutes tonite! Keep em minutes cummin'!

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Yup. Now I  have seen it.

 

It is definitely for shooting and defensive purposes + they basically run it through Jrue and AD when it really matters.

 

He starts the halves and after that it is all about situations. And most winning situations don't have his name on em.

 

Not seeing him producing +30 minutes games on regular basis. 

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8 hours ago, JormaJormala said:

Yup. Now I  have seen it.

 

It is definitely for shooting and defensive purposes + they basically run it through Jrue and AD when it really matters.

 

He starts the halves and after that it is all about situations. And most winning situations don't have his name on em.

 

Not seeing him producing +30 minutes games on regular basis. 

Thanks for the feedback.

 

I have been having to follow the box scores and not actually be able to watch the Pelicans play.  May be looking to move him for something or someone else.. players like Ariza are sitting on my waiver wire and I like his usage/playoff schedule going forward.

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59 minutes ago, Padilla814 said:

Thanks for the feedback.

 

I have been having to follow the box scores and not actually be able to watch the Pelicans play.  May be looking to move him for something or someone else.. players like Ariza are sitting on my waiver wire and I like his usage/playoff schedule going forward.

I would scoop ariza ASAP. Esp with all the trade rumors circulating in Washington. I think Beal gets moved. 

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1 hour ago, ghostofathousand_ said:

I would scoop ariza ASAP. Esp with all the trade rumors circulating in Washington. I think Beal gets moved. 

Why do you think Beal gets moved? For what or who?

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Giving some leash where I'm not desperate and there's no gem on the wire. Top 100 last 2 weeks (caveat: 136 last week). Ebb and flow, seasons change and all that. Suck if Elf and Nico get locked out of 3 man game, but gonna breathe through it for now (deep roster, 12 team).

 

I Ching: "The Superior Man waits."

Edited by bdy1

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Yeah. Have to wait for now. My PG situation is not too good and only decent waiver picks would be SG's - I'm locked and stocked with those. And do not want to move Beal or Lou Will.

 

Really starting to regret trading Niko in for Dunn. Sure, it helped to open a roster spot Satoransky but I was counting on Elfrid to produce closer to what Dunn is bringing to the table. Now he seems to be my third/fourth string option.

 

OH well, lets ride it out. Injuries, trades and other stuff can always happen. I just wish he could play 30 minutes a game. It would be just enough to have value. 32 mins would be gravy on top.

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Yall think I should drop Elfrid Payton and stash Kyle Anderson on the IL?    

 

currently stashing either Rudy Gay or Garry Harris, but both soon to be healthy.

 

I like Elfs potential to put up an efficient 14 a game w/ steals, but the boards don't seem to be coming on this team and the usage might cap him at 12 a game. He really only outplays Anderson in points (barely) and assists (also not by much).

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25 minutes ago, crucialmovement said:

Yall think I should drop Elfrid Payton and stash Kyle Anderson on the IL?    

 

currently stashing either Rudy Gay or Garry Harris, but both soon to be healthy.

 

I like Elfs potential to put up an efficient 14 a game w/ steals, but the boards don't seem to be coming on this team and the usage might cap him at 12 a game. He really only outplays Anderson in points (barely) and assists (also not by much).

 

I personally would give Payton a few more games. I have a feeling he is going to up his trade value significantly. If he hasn't  done so by the Pistons game then cut bait.

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4 minutes ago, Eltoro said:

 

I personally would give Payton a few more games. I have a feeling he is going to up his trade value significantly. If he hasn't  done so by the Pistons game then cut bait.

So true.. my poor Pistons make everyone look like an All-Star 😩

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58 minutes ago, crucialmovement said:

Yall think I should drop Elfrid Payton and stash Kyle Anderson on the IL?    

 

currently stashing either Rudy Gay or Garry Harris, but both soon to be healthy.

 

I like Elfs potential to put up an efficient 14 a game w/ steals, but the boards don't seem to be coming on this team and the usage might cap him at 12 a game. He really only outplays Anderson in points (barely) and assists (also not by much).

Same boat...just sucks that I lost close match -ups holding this dude and now I’m contemplating dropping him for the next wire gold that emerges from the trades before the deadline. For now gotta hold him. And I know this is a far cry but if Davis gets moved...Els value would go up considerably.

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He is doing ok job running the team tonight vs. Warriors... Hopefully they let him finish the game this time out.

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Aaaaaand he is out... At the 29 minute mark again. They are running Miro at SF and spacing the floor with Holiday at point.

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2 minutes ago, JormaJormala said:

Aaaaaand he is out... At the 29 minute mark again. They are running Miro at SF and spacing the floor with Holiday at point.

Regardless I’m happy with his production tonight! 

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1 hour ago, JormaJormala said:

Aaaaaand he is out... At the 29 minute mark again. They are running Miro at SF and spacing the floor with Holiday at point.

 

Stop complaining mate lol , he hasn’t been that bad to be honest. Just give him another week or two , then cut bait if necessary. He needs to make shots , I’m more worried about that than his minutes. And did he re injure himself or something , haven’t heard anything but I was watching the game, he didn’t look right after the jump ball. Heck he didn’t even try to jump. 

Edited by RunCMC
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This was second game where he had under 30 minutes and gave a line that would justify roster spot in my points league. He has played 4 games over 30 minutes and had 3 games of solid or excellent production in those. So it is kind of a big deal and I want to get to bottom of it to figure out if I have to look for PG help via trades. Its crucial to get him or Rozier going alongside Dinwiddie and Sato... 

 

 

 

And now he might go back on the shelf for 4-5 weeks with another ankle issue...

 

Edited by JormaJormala

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I think thats it for me. I'm outta here.

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Anyone watch the game last night? What's up with this dude?! 

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27 minutes ago, ghostofathousand_ said:

Does he keep up this up all season....rondo sitting on my waiver...

Well AD is done for the next 1-2 weeks. 

If he can't turn it around with AD out, I'd say he's a safe drop. 

 

With AD out, it should allow him to be more aggressive and attack the boards. 

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