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Demarcus Cousins 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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On 11/27/2018 at 8:15 AM, Soccer8098 said:

Debating how he will produce is pointless because there is no precedent for a situation like this. We dont know how many minutes he will play, if he will ever play back to backs, what his mobility will look like, or what his usage will look like. If he is even 50% of what he was in previous years its a solid risk to take though

 

Elton Brand is actually a pretty good precedent, and that was 10 years ago with likely worse treatments available. Not that any injury is ever exactly comparable though. Coming off a 20/10 season at age 28, tears his achilles in August, comes back in April (8 months) and puts up 17/9 for a few games. Then 14/9 the following season.

 

Cousins (also 28) will have 11 months of recovery and is coming off a 25/13 season. While it's clear the Warriors are taking their time putting him back, I think he'll be more up to speed based on the timeline. He'll also be eager to prove his worth given that he's only on a one year deal. The Warriors also don't have a lot invested in him so I don't think they'll baby him too much if they're not expecting him back next year.

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I own Cousins and hope for the best as far this season goes, but let me be devils advocate a bit...

 

So, we have player waiting for a huge payday and going down late in the season waiting it to happen. Obviously a huge setback for his hopes for that big, fat check. He and his agent go out and fish for a contract on the summer - with little discount baked in because of the Achilles. No takers. What is the next move?

 

Now, lets say that there is uncertainty about the injury and the extent of its effect on players performance going forward. You probably want to put yourself in a situation best to maximize your potential earnings next summer. What kind of a situation would that be? Enter Warriors. Team full of superstars, not really needing anything to keep winning championships. You go there. Best case scenario: You get back to full health and help the team out, win 'ship and showcase yourself for max deal next summer.

 

Worst case scenario? You can't make it back 100%, but because the team around you allows you to take it easy and not do too much, maybe you can use that as an excuse why you are not taking over and mask your health problems. "Just another cog in the machine / I can be a team player too". Also if the recovery is slow, you don't have to jump to the deep end early. You can take it really easy and maybe come May you can actually contribute. The team is playing DEEP in the season so you have extended window to be useful.

 

In bad team they are counting you to be you for a chance to be successful that season. If you can't take that role? It looks bad for you next summer. Just ask Isaiah Thomas how he feels about playing injured for Boston before his max contract was coming.

 

Also, we are talking about 120-160 million here. You probably are taking any action possible to make yourself look extra good. Maybe you plan out this whole thing with the team? You may not feel too good, but releasing some encouraging practice material + giving out info about wanting to join the team early on a away trip, but team trainers pushing back on X-Mas or later. And then coming back, but taking it easy blaa blaa blaa... just trying to fit the team....etc. And then maybe come playoffs time you actually can contribute. Or if not, maybe you can still spin it and make it about anything else but the injury. After that comes summer and some of the teams are going to bite => Chandler Parsons baby!

 

Just throwing it out there.Nothing more, nothing less.

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^all boogie can control is his rehab and effort today. I am going to guess the only people worried about his future and how it plays out are everyone except boogie. He has made enough money to be comfortable in life. He choose the warriors and seems happy with his choice. Everyone else was upset, not boogie. However it plays out it will play out. IMO, he needs to hoop, he needs improve as the season progresses, and he needs to stay healthy, and the rest takes care of itself. That's all. I mean there is already a huge possibility that he doesn't get a max contract regardless of his play this year. That ship might have sailed. There is also a huge chance he loves winning and decides to sacrifice money to sign with a contender next year. The possibilities are endless and difficult to predict with any accuracy. 

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https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/Warriors-mailbag-Smooth-return-for-Stephen-13431726.php

 

@rgmeyers64: After the obvious adjustment period required to incorporate a new and different type of player, how many minutes per game do you expect to see Cousins average?

Whenever Cousins returns, the Warriors will be cautious with him for a few weeks, easing him into a normal workload to ensure there are no lingering issues. But assuming Cousins looks healthy, he’ll soon be playing 30-35 minutes per game like Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green.

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just as i was saying not to take bledsoe i got offered bledsoe for my boogie and i offered boogie to covington’s owner (diff owner)...if i can pull that off, im trading him in a heartbeat

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5 minutes ago, L3onD said:

just as i was saying not to take bledsoe i got offered bledsoe for my boogie and i offered boogie to covington’s owner (diff owner)...if i can pull that off, im trading him in a heartbeat

 

I like Cousins, drafted him and have him stashed in my 12 team deep bench league. Those trades make no sense to me though and imo would be pretty veto worthy.

 

Bledsoe is starting, healthy and locked into minutes and ranked 43 on BBM. If your league allows it you snap accept that offer. Covington is a stocks monster playing for a coach who likes to play his starters 40 min a night lol and ranked 21st in BBM. Again, I like Cousins and have him but he is coming off a major injury and his minutes and role when he does come back are very much up in the air. So Cov for Cousins would be too lopsided.

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3 hours ago, akund said:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/warriors/article/Warriors-mailbag-Smooth-return-for-Stephen-13431726.php

 

@rgmeyers64: After the obvious adjustment period required to incorporate a new and different type of player, how many minutes per game do you expect to see Cousins average?

Whenever Cousins returns, the Warriors will be cautious with him for a few weeks, easing him into a normal workload to ensure there are no lingering issues. But assuming Cousins looks healthy, he’ll soon be playing 30-35 minutes per game like Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green.

I mean this all sounds great but what exactly is he basing this off of? We haven't heard Kerr or Bob Meyers say this 

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2 hours ago, gymchamp said:

 

I like Cousins, drafted him and have him stashed in my 12 team deep bench league. Those trades make no sense to me though and imo would be pretty veto worthy.

 

Bledsoe is starting, healthy and locked into minutes and ranked 43 on BBM. If your league allows it you snap accept that offer. Covington is a stocks monster playing for a coach who likes to play his starters 40 min a night lol and ranked 21st in BBM. Again, I like Cousins and have him but he is coming off a major injury and his minutes and role when he does come back are very much up in the air. So Cov for Cousins would be too lopsided.

the guys that have bledsoe and cov are in pretty good spot right now and they lack a center, 4 months from now they could end with a steal...also we dont do vetos, same group of guys is 8yrs strong now

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1 hour ago, Soccer8098 said:

I mean this all sounds great but what exactly is he basing this off of? We haven't heard Kerr or Bob Meyers say this 

 

You're right, it's not a direct quote. But I'm assuming a Warriors beat reporter's article isn't just baseless speculation.

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12 minutes ago, akund said:

 

You're right, it's not a direct quote. But I'm assuming a Warriors beat reporter's article isn't just baseless speculation.

Im skeptical for a couple reasons - one, there is no reason for them to play him 30-35 minutes a night in the regular season coming off an Achilles tear. Two, Cousins is a great player but their best lineup is still with Draymond at the 5. I think there will be a few instances in the tail end of the season where he will push towards 30 mpg but I would be shocked if hes getting there in say Feb/March

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14 hours ago, Soccer8098 said:

Im skeptical for a couple reasons - one, there is no reason for them to play him 30-35 minutes a night in the regular season coming off an Achilles tear. Two, Cousins is a great player but their best lineup is still with Draymond at the 5. I think there will be a few instances in the tail end of the season where he will push towards 30 mpg but I would be shocked if hes getting there in say Feb/March

Dray at the 5 and who's at the four?

I do not see a better lineup than Curry, Klay, Green, Durant, and Boogie on the floor at the same time. 

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9 minutes ago, Russianog said:

Dray at the 5 and who's at the four?

I do not see a better lineup than Curry, Klay, Green, Durant, and Boogie on the floor at the same time. 

uhhh KD? The lineup that has won them the last couple of titles is Curry, Klay, Iguodala, Durant, and Draymond. Its all gonna depend on how mobile Cousins is defensive. If he is getting exposed there is no way he is playing 30-35 pg - i really hope im wrong though

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10 minutes ago, Russianog said:

Dray at the 5 and who's at the four?

I do not see a better lineup than Curry, Klay, Green, Durant, and Boogie on the floor at the same time. 

 

The Warriors do have their proven 'death lineup' with Green, Durant, Iggy, Klay, and Curry. Cousins is definitely an x-factor, but we're not going to see Cousins anywhere close to full speed for a year or two, if that. 

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1 hour ago, tremixt said:

 

The Warriors do have their proven 'death lineup' with Green, Durant, Iggy, Klay, and Curry. Cousins is definitely an x-factor, but we're not going to see Cousins anywhere close to full speed for a year or two, if that. 

 

If he is still not up to speed in two years or longer then that means he had a setback with his achilles and he probably won't be in the league

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1 hour ago, tremixt said:

 

The Warriors do have their proven 'death lineup' with Green, Durant, Iggy, Klay, and Curry. Cousins is definitely an x-factor, but we're not going to see Cousins anywhere close to full speed for a year or two, if that. 

That proven small ball line up they have is fantastic but it's largely in existence because they have NEVER EVER EVER played with a player like Boogie at the 4 or 5. (Zero disrespect for Iggy, who's not getting younger eithe.)

I'd wager that Boogie, Green, Durant, Klay, and Curry will be a far more deadly lineup. I can't think of a greater mismatch for opponents.

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How the heck is this even a discussion?? Add Boogie with those others and it becomes the new “death lineup” end of story. Christ sometimes we just overthink things way to much. 

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21 minutes ago, Russianog said:

That proven small ball line up they have is fantastic but it's largely in existence because they have NEVER EVER EVER played with a player like Boogie at the 4 or 5. (Zero disrespect for Iggy, who's not getting younger eithe.)

I'd wager that Boogie, Green, Durant, Klay, and Curry will be a far more deadly lineup. I can't think of a greater mismatch for opponents.

 

14 minutes ago, chud12 said:

How the heck is this even a discussion?? Add Boogie with those others and it becomes the new “death lineup” end of story. Christ sometimes we just overthink things way to much. 

 

The death lineup is as much a defensive juggernaut than anything else. This isn't NBA 2k. You can't plug in Cousins, whose never been known to increase any team's defensive net rating, into a lineup (post achilles injury) and expect him to have the same impact as Green at the 5, defensively. 

 

This is not hard to come to terms. Of course, if we were talking about Cousins, pre-achilles, the Warriors' offense would be really interesting. But the Warriors are at their best when they start spraying 3's WHILE completely locking opposing teams. . 

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tbh he can crash the boards, one aspect of the game these modern day warriors never had before...plus he can splash threes all day long, hes gonna be just fine, i dont see why they wont maximize his playing time, hes there til summer, they know they cant pay him or even purposely lowball him to the point his price is lowered, we never saw gsw with a legit center, hes going to be alright

Edited by L3onD
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2 hours ago, tremixt said:

 

 

The death lineup is as much a defensive juggernaut than anything else. This isn't NBA 2k. You can't plug in Cousins, whose never been known to increase any team's defensive net rating, into a lineup (post achilles injury) and expect him to have the same impact as Green at the 5, defensively. 

 

This is not hard to come to terms. Of course, if we were talking about Cousins, pre-achilles, the Warriors' offense would be really interesting. But the Warriors are at their best when they start spraying 3's WHILE completely locking opposing teams. . 

 

Boogie, given healthy, is a perfect fit for the warrior system as a mobile big. 

 

I think i I you underestimate Boogie on defense. Not only is he a different kind of length that can average over a block a game but he also won’t be asked to do nearly as much as he’s been asked to do in the past with his teams. He can hyperfocus on the aspects important to the warriors because he doesn’t have to worry about the rest of the team.

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so. 

Edited by Russianog

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2 hours ago, Russianog said:

 

Boogie, given healthy, is a perfect fit for the warrior system as a mobile big. 

 

I think i I you underestimate Boogie on defense. Not only is he a different kind of length that can average over a block a game but he also won’t be asked to do nearly as much as he’s been asked to do in the past with his teams. He can hyperfocus on the aspects important to the warriors because he doesn’t have to worry about the rest of the team.

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so. 

 

Good points,

 

I'm not underestimating Cousins on defense. He's actually an elite defender as a big against post ups and isolation plays in the post/elbow. However, he's average to below average defending against pick and rolls as well as defending against perimeter players after switches. So, yes, defensively there is a drop off when compared to the versatility of Draymond Green at the 5 and Iggy at the 3. 

 

On paper, he's better than any center on their roster. I'm just curious to see what he looks like in regards to how mobile he is. 

 

I do agree, he's an intriguing fit when healthy. I own Cousins. I'd love for him to prosper. But I'm realistic with every player, regardless of whether I own them or not. There is very little evidence to suggest that a player, not even a year removed from tearing his achilles, comes back and is able to produce anywhere close to where he did before the injury. I bought him for the dream. 

 

 

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Cousins is mobile big? I wouldn't call him that now. Achilles is a nasty injury  and he was at 270 pounds before injury. This season I don't expect anything from him. He first needs to.prove he can play at 80% he was before. I don't remember any player his size that came back and was the same

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On 11/30/2018 at 11:40 AM, tremixt said:

 

The Warriors do have their proven 'death lineup' with Green, Durant, Iggy, Klay, and Curry. Cousins is definitely an x-factor, but we're not going to see Cousins anywhere close to full speed for a year or two, if that. 

 

This dude has been a top 10 or near top 10 fantasy player for 4 years straight. Nobody is expecting him to be full speed, but even if he's 60% of his former self this season, he's a top 40 fantasy player, not to mention the upside for even higher.

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On 11/30/2018 at 6:14 PM, Gile Pile said:

Cousins is mobile big? I wouldn't call him that now. Achilles is a nasty injury  and he was at 270 pounds before injury. This season I don't expect anything from him. He first needs to.prove he can play at 80% he was before. I don't remember any player his size that came back and was the same

Mobile meaning he can stretch the floor

Edited by Russianog

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