zstlj

2019 Draft Strategy

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Since 18' just ended and baseball (especially fantasy) is greatly impacted on trends and  how the game is changing constantly to favor one type of player or another early on in drafts. 

 

1) What stats or player types/positions  do you plan target early/late ? 

 

-  I only draft stud SPs ( may change) and guys like merrifeld or benintendi or guys who score tons of runs early on. I never have anyone hitting 260 with 30 HRs until I can't wait. Trading for a kDavis is much easier and more value then drafting him when he usually is taken. 

 

2) Has or will your strategy change due to anything you saw this season? 

 

-  The Bullpen and starters going less and less has me confused. Especially for people who use Wins. If wins are becoming extremely tough to get, then a SP can really only be worth 3 categories. I'd like to hear you guys opinions on this ^

 

3) What mistakes did you make this year?

 

-I had the issue of platoon guys with the Brewers and Dodgers (Muncy Kemp Schoop Santana and Braun ) 

- Dropped Matt Carpenter 

-Spent 50$ in transactions trying to find Houston's closer all year. 

 

 

 

 

Basically , has any anomaly or trend  made you rethink how you need to draft?

 

 

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As for wins getting scarcer if this "opener" really catches on the quality start will be history. It will also affect the role as the closer which is being phased out (Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman type) and you are going to see mix and match from day to day.

 

Drafting one of the top closers will become more important. Most won't agree with this but speculating will be harder than ever and imo with worse results overall.

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

As for wins getting scarcer if this "opener" really catches on the quality start will be history. It will also affect the role as the closer which is being phased out (Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman type) and you are going to see mix and match from day to day.

 

Drafting one of the top closers will become more important. Most won't agree with this but speculating will be harder than ever and imo with worse results overall.

 

 

 

 

That's an excellent point on the "closer". I've never taken closers early but makes perfect sense to use a pick on a elite closer , great advice. 

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I believe more leagues will move away from traditional SP/RP designations and just go with "P".  I agree though, it is better to be ahead of the curve in trying to design your roster to deal with these changes.

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5 hours ago, zstlj said:

-  The Bullpen and starters going less and less has me confused. Especially for people who use Wins. If wins are becoming extremely tough to get, then a SP can really only be worth 3 categories. I'd like to hear you guys opinions on this ^

 

The use of openers could actually fix the wins category.

 

Look at Ryan Yarbrough this year. He won 16 games. Only 2 came as a starter, and he only pitched 5 or more IP in 7 of them. While most of us were banging our heads against the wall watching our SPs get pulled with 5 run leads after 4 innings and 80 pitches, Yarbrough got most of his wins in 3-4 IP outings.

 

So targeting pitchers on teams more likely to use an opener could be beneficial. Of course it could be an issue if your league uses SP/RP distinctions. I usually play in leagues that just have P slots.

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1 minute ago, SpartyOn4 said:

 

The use of openers could actually fix the wins category.

 

Look at Ryan Yarbrough this year. He won 16 games. Only 2 came as a starter, and he only pitched 5 or more IP in 7 of them. While most of us were banging our heads against the wall watching our SPs get pulled with 5 run leads after 4 innings and 80 pitches, Yarbrough got most of his wins in 3-4 IP outings.

 

So targeting pitchers on teams more likely to use an opener could be beneficial. Of course it could be an issue if your league uses SP/RP distinctions. I usually play in leagues that just have P slots.

Good point, but I think those guys may be easier to WW rather then draft. This is gonna be off season challenge since I love multi SP early

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Khris Davis does end up producing at his ADP more often then not. So how is it an advantage? Everyone wants Power/Speed first, Power/BA or ACE'S 2nd. Stanton/Judge only end up so high because they have 50 HR upside. That is the draft flow.

 

These were the next 10 hitters drafted after Davis this year according to all site's ADP:

Elvis Andrus, AJ Pollock, Jose Quintina, Wil Myers, Xander Boegarts, Robinson Cano, Billy Hamilton, James Paxton, Corey Knebel, Gerrit Cole.  

 

Chasing power speed ends you with Andrus, Pollock, Myers, Xander.  75% chance you busted vs just taking the guy who's very consistent at what he does.

 

Any strategy that relies on trading means your strategy has holes in it. 

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Khris Davis does end up producing at his ADP more often then not. So how is it an advantage? Everyone wants Power/Speed first, Power/BA or ACE'S 2nd. Stanton/Judge only end up so high because they have 50 HR upside. That is the draft flow.

 

These were the next 10 hitters drafted after Davis this year according to all site's ADP:

Elvis Andrus, AJ Pollock, Jose Quintina, Wil Myers, Xander Boegarts, Robinson Cano, Billy Hamilton, James Paxton, Corey Knebel, Gerrit Cole.  

 

Chasing power speed ends you with Andrus, Pollock, Myers, Xander.  75% chance you busted vs just taking the guy who's very consistent at what he does.

 

Any strategy that relies on trading means your strategy has holes in it. 

Every strategy has holes. You have to be able to execute and evolve them thru the season. 

 

The strategy i won with this season was almost punting HRs and have had no problem finding them mid year to help me finish mid pack in my punted/worst category. Therefore I have surplus in other areas and trading is usually easy. 

 

Same with people who draft all closers. Many plan on dealing them later. They usually have no issue dealing a closer or closers.

 

 

 

 

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Sure, but my point is consistent power hitters are not actually over-vauled on draft day anymore. There was no reason you were worse off if you had mixed a power hitter to compliment your High BA/SB mold from the start.

 

Say for every 3-4 hitters of the BA/SB/R mold to swipe a fugly power hitter.  The vast majority of power hitters that reach 30 HRs will net at least 70 runs. The Vast majority of 100 run guys hit at least 20 HRs (sans 2)

 

You created yourself the unnecessary step to victory by taking it to a logical extreme. Draft capital was still cheaper than trading.  You see the results, i see an area where the strategy can improve.  

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Kimbrel went in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and the 5th in a few others. I thought that was insane at the time but now  I kind of see the point of "overpaying" for a sure thing closer. I was real smug about drafting Boxberger in every league and then he lost the job right before fantasy playoffs started.

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I think drafting the stud pitchers / closers will be even more important.  The ace pitchers are the ones more likely to go 6 or 7 innings and get wins, it's the 3-5 guys that will get pulled early.  Same with closers, there might be only a few teams that designate a true closer for the season and have them stay in that role, Kimbrel, Jansen, etc. 

 

Offensively homers can wait I think, draft a bunch of guys that will hit in the 20 HR range, instead of the big HR guys then speedsters.

 

Id think about getting a solid anchor on offense in round 1 and then maybe go pitching the next couple rounds.  Yes, the risk of injury is higher but these pitchers will contribute in all categories.

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not really sure why my post was deleted but whatever.  my draft strategy is going to be to draft nothing but pitchers.

 

we keep 13 so i am keeping a solid core of hitters, but spending most if not all of my picks on pitching since pitching is so volatile.

 

obviously if there a hitter available at a good value, i'll jump on him, but considering how many hitters are already off the board, taking a flyer on pitching seems like a better strategy.

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i dont see myself taking a pitcher in the first 3 rounds again unless i get crazy good value

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Why not? Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Verlander have given an ERA under 4 and 200ks 3 straight years. There have been only been a handful of hitters that give that equvlent towards hitting value.

 

Young hitters break out earlier on average then young pitchers in this era.

 

There is a  inefficey in terms having age bias on pitchers. The age curve on pitchers is wider, less refined than hitting age curve.

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45 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Why not? Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Verlander have given an ERA under 4 and 200ks 3 straight years. There have been only been a handful of hitters that give that equvlent towards hitting value.

 

Young hitters break out earlier on average then young pitchers in this era.

 

There is a  inefficey in terms having age bias on pitchers. The age curve on pitchers is wider, less refined than hitting age curve.

 

what about madbum and thor?  i mean i had a team this year with grienke, nola, bauer, corbin and morton.

 

im not saying its the right strategy im just saying its mine.

 

 im just not taking chris sale over Yelich or Bregman or corey kluber over aaron judge in the 2nd

 

 

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As the season began to wind down, I was highly considering ignoring closers for the most part in the draft next season.  I play in only a keeper league, but still, closers are valued the same regardless.  Anyways, I was considering that because of how bad closers were as a whole in the second half.  Even some of the supposed good ones imploded more often than you would expect.  Kimbrel and Diaz were two of the only true elite closers that didn't have issues this season.  Even Jansen, and while I would happily roster him next season if it made sense for me, he was not the same Jansen all season.  Granted he had the issue with his heart, but even when he seemed to right the ship after his bad start, his K's were down.

 

Still undecided on the strategy for closers next season, and obviously I have plenty of time to figure that out.  I'm still leaning towards ignoring them for the most part in the draft and maybe hoping to grab a few here and there.  Trying to get a solid group of closers after trading the ones I had to get better in other areas just wasn't worth the hassle.  My ratios would have been better off without them.

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6 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

As the season began to wind down, I was highly considering ignoring closers for the most part in the draft next season.  I play in only a keeper league, but still, closers are valued the same regardless.  Anyways, I was considering that because of how bad closers were as a whole in the second half.  Even some of the supposed good ones imploded more often than you would expect.  Kimbrel and Diaz were two of the only true elite closers that didn't have issues this season.  Even Jansen, and while I would happily roster him next season if it made sense for me, he was not the same Jansen all season.  Granted he had the issue with his heart, but even when he seemed to right the ship after his bad start, his K's were down.

 

Still undecided on the strategy for closers next season, and obviously I have plenty of time to figure that out.  I'm still leaning towards ignoring them for the most part in the draft and maybe hoping to grab a few here and there.  Trying to get a solid group of closers after trading the ones I had to get better in other areas just wasn't worth the hassle.  My ratios would have been better off without them.

 

i agree on closers.  might just take a bunch of high end bullpen arms (oping they get save opportunities) and pay the waiver wire game.

 

like, im not gonna reach next year for edwin diaz like i did jansen this year

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Good discussion topic...

1. I always tend to value guys who can contribute steals AND not be completely popless.  In this age of the HR boom, seems like having those high SB players that get like 3HR really puts pressure to have bombers elsewhere, on the flip side, if you get players who dont steal from positions you expect to get some SB's its also makes it difficult to construct a balanced roster at times.  

 

2. The bullpen/opener and use of the pen?  Not sure a mixed league of my main ones really changes all that much, its a roto, most of the 13 teams have at least 7 starting pitchers, so thats 91 starters, if all 30 teams had 5 thats 150 so even if 10 teams (which would be a LOT) used 2 openers that would still only trim 20 guys off, but I could see in "only" leagues starter value becoming more of an issue.  

 

3. Mistakes - injuries hit me hard and it was horrible because they were guys I traded for: Tajuan Walker, Kershaw, Seager, Posey, Bryant all got hurt within a few weeks of acquring them, a couple times within a week.  Dahl got hurt and a few others.  Probably biggest mistake was on keeper front, and kind of back to my point 1, convinced myself that I needed to find a way to secure a $23 Myers going into auction as keeper, which meant not keeping a $1 matt chapman and to offset the cost traded a $24 Carlos Martinez for $4 Tajuan Walker.  So you can see how that combo of moves worked out. 

 

 

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On 10/5/2018 at 9:26 PM, zstlj said:

Every strategy has holes. You have to be able to execute and evolve them thru the season. 

 

The strategy i won with this season was almost punting HRs and have had no problem finding them mid year to help me finish mid pack in my punted/worst category. Therefore I have surplus in other areas and trading is usually easy. 

 

Same with people who draft all closers. Many plan on dealing them later. They usually have no issue dealing a closer or closers.

 

 

 

 

Speed was easier to find this year with the likes of Smith, Villar and Mondesi early to mid season

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I think I will be more likely to take an Ace SP early.  Possibly a top tier closer as well.

 

Why?

 

1)  traditional, full season lock down closers are becoming a relic.  Speculating is harder than ever especially with this flexible use and rampant committees.  

 

2)  as for SP...  there were a ton of guys this year I *loved* with their ADP and upside combo.   Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin, etc type of guys.   This could change between now and next year's drafts but as of right now I don't see a group of pitchers that will fall into that category as much.  There aren't really too many (if any) guys who I saw second half adjustments from who I see as flying under the radar types going into next year.  I think it's going to be the top 20-30 SP then a huge glut of mediocrity and that makes a true ace more valuable.  

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It's still remains difficult to determine 'top tier' closer, because seemingly there is an Edwin Diaz or Blake Treihen that emerges.  Outside of Chapman (who was injured), Jansen (both injured then shaky upon returning), Kimbrel and maybe now Diaz, who else fits into that top tier?  Beyond the issue with committees, it seems that there is very few (less than a handful) of guys that fit the criteria over the last 3-5 years.  And even then, Chapman and Jansen can not be necessarily counted on next year for a whole season.

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22 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

It's still remains difficult to determine 'top tier' closer, because seemingly there is an Edwin Diaz or Blake Treihen that emerges.  Outside of Chapman (who was injured), Jansen (both injured then shaky upon returning), Kimbrel and maybe now Diaz, who else fits into that top tier?  Beyond the issue with committees, it seems that there is very few (less than a handful) of guys that fit the criteria over the last 3-5 years.  And even then, Chapman and Jansen can not be necessarily counted on next year for a whole season.

 

Nobody does. 

 

And you are right even Jansen/Chapman now have question marks.  I'd probably gamble on Jansen over Chapman at this point barring further developments on his health condition.   In fact I'll go a step farther and say that Chapman is now a tier lower.  I do think Diaz can now be considered top tier.  Kimbrel is the only "safe" one and should be the consensus first off the board.

 

I think that Osuna in Houston could sneak into the top tier.  LeClerc could even be close-ish.  Chapman will go in most drafts ahead of these two but I'd rather have both than Chapman next year (right now anyway).

 

Then you have your Treinen, Doolittle, Vazquez, Iglesies etc tier... may be willing to reach slightly for one of these.  Although many who could go in here have plenty of question marks (If one guy grabs the role in places like Cleveland or Milwaukee they will be valuable, if it's a committee much less so etc...)  

 

After that it's a crapshoot...   so I guess my point is having a couple of guys with solid chances of hanging onto the role all year will be more valuable than usual.

 

 

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Ah, I love F baseball so much more than any other fantasy game.

 

All my information is in regards to standard head to head leagues with 12 teams.

 

1. On closers:

There's either 2 viable strategies. You take the top closer(s) or you wait until the end and bargain bin for $2 closers. You DON'T want to be that guy spending $12 on mediocre closers who are going to be gone like dust in the wind. Either go in heavy with sure fire closers or eliminate the risk of them by buying them for nothing.

 

2. On SP:

It's VERY hard for me to pick a Sp1 over the top hitters. I just can't pick a Corey Kluber over an Aaron Judge or so. It's easier to manage in auction drafts where you can have your cake and eat it too with both a SP1 and stud hitter(s). I think this year I will be looking to take a SP1 in my auctions and possibly even a Sp2 where in past years I've only gone for hitter-heavy approaches. 

 

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