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2019 Draft Strategy

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I think one thing that might bring some questions this year is when guys like Gordon and Hamilton who you pay to get you those 50-60 bags, dont...and continue serious liability numbers in HR, RBI and even to some extent batting average.  

 

So whats the effect?

* Are the bag only guys who people thought could "win them this category" - gonna lose value?

* Does it even bump those 25+SB guys who do so much more essentially make them your top 5 in part because the bag guys were so disappointing. 

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Another trend and curious those who have had auction and auction keeper leagues a while if you have seen this trend also. 

 

1. More higher priced guys overall - our league has been auction since 1996, up until the last 5 years, there were a total of like 3-4 guys who cost more than $60.  

* In the last several years there has been at least 2 $60 guys each year, I think last year there were 4. 

2. High priced keepers - each team gets 10 keepers, years ago it was 12 but in a big turnover year about a decade or so ago, we dropped to 10.  Until last season there had been a total of 3 players kept at over $50.   Randy Johnson in the 90's and then Miggy for 58 like 5 years ago and Kershaw for 54 two years ago.   Last year there were 9 players KEPT over $50, the idea used to be you could get em back for around the same price.   IN 2017, Mike Trout set the record for highest price in auction, he went for $66, guy kept him at 66 last year.  

 

Anyone else seeing more spending overall and on keepers?  more of the studs and duds model?  

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anybody thinking about punting steals?

with the crazy price put on steals right now might be a good time to zig.

 

messed around with a mock on fantasypros. (not the best computer mocks) and punted steals while going jdm, judge start

get some great value picks and you get a nice bump in runs/rbis/hrs not drafting any speed

 

I think it would work better in auction expecially if a good amount of the steals guys get nominated early

Edited by colepenhagen

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I don't believe in truly "punting" categories ever, since it creates so much pressure to run the table in other categories.

 

My plan for SB is going to be the same as always -- set a conservative price for the 20+ SB guys, and if I'm not getting them (which I probably won't in this environment) , I'll piece together steals from a bunch of guys who contribute 5-10 and do something else, looking for the next Mondesi, Villar, Mallex guy on the wire. If I don't find that guy, I'm probably bottom half in the category but not dead last. If I do, I'm probably top 3 in it.

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What are your thoughts on when to grab pitching this year?

 

Out of the first two rounds, the only guy I really like is Sale. I think I'd prefer to go hitter, hitter, and then grab 2-3 pitchers in the middle rounds. Something like Severino, Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin. 

 

As for closers. I have never drafted closers because it is usually easier to pick them up later on in the season. I think this might be the first season where I spring for one of the "Cadillac" quality closers. Ie. Diaz, Chapman, Treinen. It's just brutal finding consistent saves mid-season with all these committees that managers are using.

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Great thread!

 

Here are some of the things I'm looking into this season:

 

1- If I don't get an elite closer then I'm going to wait and see where it goes in the later rounds. I like to stream relief pitching and I usually get a closer or two by pure luck anyway. 

 

2- I'm almost definitely taking a stud pitcher in the 2nd or 3rd round this season. I started doing that 2 years ago and it's been working. You need a solid, dependable anchor for your staff due to innings limitations with the lower tier guys. The only way this doesn't happen is if a can't miss stud hitter falls, if that happens then it probably means the studs are gone anyway. 

 

I've just started my research for this season. I hope to contribute more as we lead up to spring training. But great job on this thread! Keep it up! 

 

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Has anyone taken a good hard look at Starting Pitching this year? It's scary.

 

I am looking at the list of even the top 20 SP and how many of these pitchers have 

1) 3 consecutive years of being a dominant pitcher and 

2) No health, age or velocity drop concerns.

 

Sale, health concerns, Kershaw, health concerns, Kluber, Velocity drop, Bauer, Cole, Snell, great but don't have a proven track record.  Verlander is 36.   

 

Combine this with the fact that so few SP throw 200 or more innings this year and ask yourself how you are going to find 1200 innings of good SP? Assume 3 relievers with about 70 innings and the rest are SP and the innings cap is 1400.

 

Assume the standard Yahoo 12 man league and you need to look at the top 75 and maybe the top 100 pitchers in baseball.  You got to take some chances with the Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray type stories. And what makes SP tricky is that horrid starts can completely eat away at the stats from your aces.  Pitching features 2 avg categories with damage to ERA and WHIP that can blow up faster than an 0 for 5 day by a mediocre hitter.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Has anyone taken a good hard look at Starting Pitching this year? It's scary.

 

I am looking at the list of even the top 20 SP and how many of these pitchers have 

1) 3 consecutive years of being a dominant pitcher and 

2) No health, age or velocity drop concerns.

 

Sale, health concerns, Kershaw, health concerns, Kluber, Velocity drop, Bauer, Cole, Snell, great but don't have a proven track record.  Verlander is 36.   

 

Combine this with the fact that so few SP throw 200 or more innings this year and ask yourself how you are going to find 1200 innings of good SP? Assume 3 relievers with about 70 innings and the rest are SP and the innings cap is 1400.

 

Assume the standard Yahoo 12 man league and you need to look at the top 75 and maybe the top 100 pitchers in baseball.  You got to take some chances with the Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray type stories. And what makes SP tricky is that horrid starts can completely eat away at the stats from your aces.  Pitching features 2 avg categories with damage to ERA and WHIP that can blow up faster than an 0 for 5 day by a mediocre hitter.

 

 

 

 

There's like 35 pitchers in the first 100 picks worthy of being taken, then you get to what Paul Sporer calls "the glob" where it's a ton of pitchers who are very similar.  

 

I've done a few drafts so far this year.  You kinda have to pick what deficiency you want to try to target later in the draft.  I'm going to try to get a 5 tool player and a pitcher in the first two rounds.  That tends to make it easier for me to construct my roster.  

 

Even the best laid plans change.  I came into the draft with that plan, then Arenado fell to the 13th! overall in a 15 teamer.  I took Arenado and then there was an early run on speed.  I was really left scrambling to find enough speed later and it wasn't easy.  

 

Also had a draft where I kept feeling like I was reaching on SP so I went hitter first 5 picks.  Going into the season with Kenley Jansen, Clevinger, and David Price as my best pitchers.  Not sure that's the way to go either.  

 

.

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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I try to grab two SP in the first six rounds or so. In those rounds, I draft the best overall hitter. I don't target specific positions until later on in the draft. 

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Draft dependent strategies; by this I mean that I'll take whoever offers the best value at each pick, but in general I'll be:

- RP:  target one or two elite closers (this season I like Hand and Yates) and pair them with a guy like Alvarado and two ace mid-RPs (Betances, Pressly, etc).  In other words, don't gamble with mid-tier closers who will hurt ratios, lose their jobs, and be stressful.  Pair high end closers with high end mid-RPs.

- SP:  Target an ace SP and a second super consistent guy (Grienke, Mikolas, Kendricks, etc).  Then wait and fill out SPs with later round sleepers.  In other words, don't gamble with mid-tier SPs who will hurt ratios and are only being drafted for illusive wins (Gray, Stroman, etc).

- 1B:  Target early.  This position looks weirdly shallow to me and I'd like to get an anchor in the first ~80 picks.

- 2B and SS:  These positions are insanely deep this year and I'll pass on Baez, Correa, etc for C Hernandez and J Polanco.  Other later CI I like: Peraza, Simmons, Hampson, A Frazier, Wendle.

- 3B:  Looks deep this season so I'll likely pass on early guys and target Turner, Profar, Muncy, maybe Devers.

- OF:  I'm waiting on OF.  Other than the early OF (first few rounds), I'm not super keen on the mid-tier OFs.  So I'll wait and target guys like Winker, Markakis, Choo, Kepler, Meadows, Nimmo, Eaton.

 

Draft independent strategies:

- Draft Joey Votto.  Because I want to win and he is made of winning.

- Wait on catchers until the last couple rounds.  This isn't really a new strategy but one that I've found is more rational than most.

- If I don't end up with multi-position players, I'll target one "swiss-army knife" guy and keep a shallow hitting bench.  Use most my bench for pitchers.

- Be all over the WW.  People make panicked decisions every year and I've found you can swoop on guys if you're keeping a close eye (last season I got F Vazquez early in the season while he was struggling and someone panic dropped him).

- Be aggressive with trades.  If my team has a hole that cannot be filled on the WW, I'm sending out trade offers.  The upside to being aggressive with trades is that other managers will know you're willing to deal and may send you offers that aren't well thought through (in your favor).

- Draft Joey Votto.

 

Edited by En Votto Veritas
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I dradted votto last year in an OBP league. He was not made of winning.

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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2 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Draft dependent strategies; by this I mean that I'll take whoever offers the best value at each pick, but in general I'll be:

- RP:  target one or two elite closers (this season I like Hand and Yates) and pair them with a guy like Alvarado and two ace mid-RPs (Betances, Pressly, etc).  In other words, don't gamble with mid-tier closers who will hurt ratios, lose their jobs, and be stressful.  Pair high end closers with high end mid-RPs.

- SP:  Target an ace SP and a second super consistent guy (Grienke, Mikolas, Kendricks, etc).  Then wait and fill out SPs with later round sleepers.  In other words, don't gamble with mid-tier SPs who will hurt ratios and are only being drafted for illusive wins (Gray, Stroman, etc).

- 1B:  Target early.  This position looks weirdly shallow to me and I'd like to get an anchor in the first ~80 picks.

- 2B and SS:  These positions are insanely deep this year and I'll pass on Baez, Correa, etc for C Hernandez and J Polanco.  Other later CI I like: Peraza, Simmons, Hampson, A Frazier, Wendle.

- 3B:  Looks deep this season so I'll likely pass on early guys and target Turner, Profar, Muncy, maybe Devers.

- OF:  I'm waiting on OF.  Other than the early OF (first few rounds), I'm not super keen on the mid-tier OFs.  So I'll wait and target guys like Winker, Markakis, Choo, Kepler, Meadows, Nimmo, Eaton.

 

Draft independent strategies:

- Draft Joey Votto.  Because I want to win and he is made of winning.

- Wait on catchers until the last couple rounds.  This isn't really a new strategy but one that I've found is more rational than most.

- If I don't end up with multi-position players, I'll target one "swiss-army knife" guy and keep a shallow hitting bench.  Use most my bench for pitchers.

- Be all over the WW.  People make panicked decisions every year and I've found you can swoop on guys if you're keeping a close eye (last season I got F Vazquez early in the season while he was struggling and someone panic dropped him).

- Be aggressive with trades.  If my team has a hole that cannot be filled on the WW, I'm sending out trade offers.  The upside to being aggressive with trades is that other managers will know you're willing to deal and may send you offers that aren't well thought through (in your favor).

- Draft Joey Votto.

 

 

This is kind of a funny post as Votto was the most disappointing player last year.  But I can see you really, really, like Votto.

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1. Get stud pitchers and pay an extra few bucks for them in auction. My preference is to get 3 but 2 would make you very competitive. I won't go near any top tier closers. I drafted 1 closer(Boxberger) last year and led the league in saves. If you are very active on the wire/FAAB you can at least be mid pack without paying for saves. 

I pay for the studs that don't hurt you anywhere and try to draft cheap hitters that could break out. Last year I got Haniger for $3.

 

2. Only strategy I am changing is not to draft a SB guy that just gets SBs, a la Gordon/Hamilton.

 

3. Made the mistake of thinking Verlander($17) would regress and traded him for $1 Josh Bell during the off-season. Already had Scherzer and Nola and wanted some cheap controllable hitting. We can all see how that panned out.

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I think you can out think yourself sometimes with position scarcity/ glut decisions, especially early.  I agree with best player strategy.  I like to look at dollar values during snake drafts. Don't let a $40 Scherzer go by for a $25 Freeman just because you think first base is thin. If players are close to each other in value, then maybe look at position tiers/ drop offs to be deciding factor. I also don't like to go with gut decisions early. Later in draft, definitely. But let the wisdom of the crowd rule early. Don't reach for a favorite player a round early.  

 

 

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On 1/20/2019 at 4:54 PM, ktierne3 said:

What are your thoughts on when to grab pitching this year?

 

Out of the first two rounds, the only guy I really like is Sale. I think I'd prefer to go hitter, hitter, and then grab 2-3 pitchers in the middle rounds. Something like Severino, Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin. 

 

As for closers. I have never drafted closers because it is usually easier to pick them up later on in the season. I think this might be the first season where I spring for one of the "Cadillac" quality closers. Ie. Diaz, Chapman, Treinen. It's just brutal finding consistent saves mid-season with all these committees that managers are using.

For me, I would like to have an "ace" to anchor the staff and when I look at my own pitcher rankings, just because guys are in the top 12 and are a P1, doesnt technically mean to me they are an "ace".  I would say there are probably 6-8 of those guys.  In my one league that drafts, I have an early 1st round pick, I am going best available and then on that 2-3 turn hoping to land one of the guys I think of as an Ace as well as 1 of the 3 1B.  

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Just did my first nfbc league where rosters are locked from draft day through the entire season. What are your draft strategies in leagues where you can't trade or pickup free agents?

Edited by ktierne3
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10 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

Just did my first nfbc league where rosters are locked from draft day through the entire season. What are your draft strategies in leagues where you can't trade or pickup free agents?

 

Cutline or draft champions?

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2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Cutline or draft champions?

NFBC 50s. I usually do Yahoo and will do another Yahoo league with my friends but I wanted to try a new one. Never had one without free agent pickups before though. Seems like you might need to draft differently.

Edited by ktierne3

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5 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

NFBC 50s. I usually do Yahoo and will do another Yahoo league with my friends but I wanted to try a new one. Never had one without free agent pickups before though. Seems like you might need to draft differently.

 

You can win them with a variety of strategies.  Some people can tank a category, but imo it's a little tough.  I like to get at least one good closer with a lot of rope.  It's too tough to bink on two of the AJ Minter or Kelvin Herrera types later on and who knows what you'll get with guys like Greene, Steckrider, Givens, etc.  I also feel that I don't have to speculate on as many RP later if I have a "better" closer.  Those spots can go to another position.

 

Bump closers a little.  Speed will get a bump.  Other than that, manage your depth.  Make sure you have plenty of pitching.  I like to have at least 22 pitchers.  You'll need them.  Guys who play multiple positions are more valuable.  Guys who are just getting at bats are valuable.  Like you don't want to have your bench consist of all prospects.  You'll need some Charlie Culberson's, Yario Munoz's, Aledyms Diaz's and Jay Bruce's on your team.

 

As far as in season, you'll set lineups Monday and Friday for hitters and Monday for pitchers.  In that regard it's like any other league as far as watching matchups, injuries, etc.  

 

So there's no golden arrow.  Draft well and make sure you have plenty of depth.  Good luck!

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I am doing the same as last year, all hitters like Round 14. Then will try to get some SPs for cheap during the season 

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2 minutes ago, coleporter said:

On average what rounds are Buehler and Flaherty going?

Based on NFBC ADP:

 

Buehler - 4th round

Flaherty - 6th round

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