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2019 Draft Strategy

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14 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

So I am going to mention and share something, I mostly do auction drafts these days and it's catching on more.  So let's talk auction drafting strategy.

 

The first problem which I see time and time again and it makes me want SMH is how people nominate.  I often see people nominate players in the same order as they would be drafted in a snake round... something like 1) Trout 2) Betts 3) Lindor or something like that.  

 

This is totally wrong, unless your strategy is to bargain shop in the auction.  You should nominate players that you feel are overrated, with the most overrated going first.Nominate according to a strategy.  If you want to build a killer infield, nominate the best OF first.  If you plan on ignoring SBs, nominate the best SB players etc.  Get the opposition to blow all their money and get them to waste their money.

When it comes to calling out the top 1-2 guys like Trout and Betts, obviously only 1 or 2 owners are going to walk away with them so if you are not planning to spend big money or maybe its a keeper league and you kept some higher priced guys not named Trout or Betts, those are likely to be some of the first names called to get the big money off the board. 

 

As far as call out strategy - 

1. You probalby should have a general guideline about where youre gonna invest and what positions you might fill with $1 guys at the end.   If you know your gonna not spend somewhere (similar to what you talked about with steals) I call the big money guys at that position.  I also really hone in on what I call the DND Line, the Do Not Draft line, which is my approximation of how many are going to get called.  So lets say its a 12-team league that uses CI.  I would figure 12 3B for sure, then probably another 8-9 either as CI or maybe have to go a little deeper because player with 3B eligibility gets put somewhere else like owner unexpectedly puts Bryant in the OF.  So conservatively I would say like around 21-22 would be my DND line.  Sometimes what I start doing is calling those guys (assuming Im OK with them for $1) just above the DND line.  That way if someone goes $2 great, just means your getting a higher ranked player for $1 at some point later in the auction.  I do that a couple of times.  

 

2. If you win a bidding war - pay attention to those who were bidding on the guys you ended up with.  They are likely trade targets for those guys down the line. 

 

3. I rarely force the issue and call who I am interested in, but there are a few times I think you might need to. 

* If plan A revolves around a guy who the price could be volatile - I dont want to wait too long and have plans B,C,D go off the board and then realize plan A was Plan A for four owners and his price was way more than I anticipated and I dont get him. 

* Tiers - if you are planning to say "make sure I get 1 guy from this tier" dont let it get to the end of that tier, because a lot of times where will be some inflation there as people start to realize this is the last player before a drop you dont want to be overpaying in that scenario. 

 

4. As you get to the end, be aware of teams money remaining as well as position limitations.  If you want a guy and the other owner cant go $4, you may want to call him out at $3 if its a player you want. 

 

5. Protect your research - and this is something I am really bad at doing.  Cant tell you how often I have ended up $1 per spot way earlier than I should have and the result is not being able to say $2 on anyone and the work and prep you did is really about winning that portion of the auction, which if you cant bid on anyone you are pretty limited, also knowing you cant protect your call outs you end up calling out guys you dont want who you think for sure people will say $2, but sometimes they dont.   I would say like $10-12 for the last 4-5 spots.  

 

 

 

 

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Yeah, you don't want to be predictable; people will notice if you're constantly calling out bums and if you play with the same people and are usually good, they'll pay more attention to who you're bidding on than who you're nominating, anyway.

 

I usually try to mix: 

1) Good players at deep positions I wouldn't mind getting at a discount but anticipate losing

2) Regression candidates or players I consider especially risky. If people catch on that I'm doing this, all the better because of 3

3) Sleepers I like; these usually start coming out when there are still good players on the board but wallets are getting tight after everybody gets a few headliners.

 

I think you need to try to get some of your nominations, though not aggressively. Opponents should ideally have trouble identifying who you like during the draft. 

Edited by Hanghow

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the way I do auction is first to spend and last to spend

meaning spend early especially on trout and Mookie or whatever high priced players you like and try and be the guy at the end of the draft that controls things

I love when the first player nominated is the best player. you got some teams that want to wait and don't want to spend right out the gate, you got teams that are fixated on avg price or projected price and don't know that in some drafts its going to cost you to get those studs.

 

spent $130 in the first 30 nominations

then just waited for a couple steals or fairly priced guys you like in the next 120 or so nominations then it sets you up nicely to bully guys later in the draft

 

have no problem nominating 1st rds you like early but after that I rarely nominated guys I like.

I like nominating guys that are similar skill set or position as who was nominated just before. someone nominates gary this year and I have next nomination im going straight to jt real. same with closers or sp try and create some panic or some runs

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

Yeah, you don't want to be predictable; people will notice if you're constantly calling out bums and if you play with the same people and are usually good, they'll pay more attention to who you're bidding on than who you're nominating, anyway.

 

I usually try to mix: 

1) Good players at deep positions I wouldn't mind getting at a discount but anticipate losing

2) Regression candidates or players I consider especially risky. If people catch on that I'm doing this, all the better because of 3

3) Sleepers I like; these usually start coming out when there are still good players on the board but wallets are getting tight after everybody gets a few headliners.

 

I think you need to try to get some of your nominations, though not aggressively. Opponents should ideally have trouble identifying who you like during the draft. 

The sleeper one is always tough from a timing standpoint, there is an owner in our league who I think he honestly thinks he is gonna get these guys for $1 but he calls them out way too early thinking they are obscure but they are not and end up going for a lot.  I dont mind calling those "trendy" "sleepers" out early because they can be overvalued but I know this guy thinks he is gonna get them because he gets all pissy that they are going for way more than his ESPN auction value chart.  

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54 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

the way I do auction is first to spend and last to spend

meaning spend early especially on trout and Mookie or whatever high priced players you like and try and be the guy at the end of the draft that controls things

I love when the first player nominated is the best player. you got some teams that want to wait and don't want to spend right out the gate, you got teams that are fixated on avg price or projected price and don't know that in some drafts its going to cost you to get those studs.

 

spent $130 in the first 30 nominations

then just waited for a couple steals or fairly priced guys you like in the next 120 or so nominations then it sets you up nicely to bully guys later in the draft

 

have no problem nominating 1st rds you like early but after that I rarely nominated guys I like.

I like nominating guys that are similar skill set or position as who was nominated just before. someone nominates gary this year and I have next nomination im going straight to jt real. same with closers or sp try and create some panic or some runs

 

 

Cope great point about those first few calls, there is a little baked in value there of maybe $5+ typically when you see what guys end up going for when you get into that spending spree point of the night where people are affraid to end up with money.  

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Auctions are so much fun, I had about 70 Yahoo leagues last year and roughly 65 of them were Auctions, so I've had just about every 'type' of auction-player mentioned in this thread :p.

 

colepenhagen mentions a very good strategy in most auctions. Striking early and getting some top players around their average price is solid and then waiting for the steals of the draft and controlling the sleepers creates a real nice team most of the time.

 

I think the only way you can go wrong in regards to nominating players is if you become way too predictable as parrot discussed with the one guy always nominating his sleeper picks. I've had a few times were a guy ALWAYS nominated HIS players so he would bid on the guy no matter what. It became so predictable that I just started bidding him up knowing he would overpay because he nominated the guy he wanted. Don't be that guy.

 

It also heavily depends on size of league.

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Regarding auctions, the "Nominate Bums' strategy is sometimes problematic. You have to play the field instead of blindly nominating every player you don't want. Some auctions may have people gun shy early on, so nominating a top player you don't want just to let someone get him cheap is not a winning strategy.

 

Overall, I just try to mix things up, never always nominate players I want / don't want. If you play it one way smart people can catch up to you.

 

As long as you are not stuck with extra money in the end or paying $10 for Robinson Chirinos then you should be in solid shape. That by far is the biggest killer in auctions.

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In money leagues, has any one employed the "LIMA plan" this year or had success last year?

 

With top 3 spots getting paid in most leagues, the LIMA plan seems a good idea if you only goal is to try for top 3

 

I was in a cash league the other day at Yahoo and there were 2 owners drafting closers hard and heavy, seemingly going for ratios and saves with tons of late good bet hitters

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