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Franmil Reyes 2019 Outlook

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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

He seems to be dead again. He did have those 5 very good games as you pointed out, the next 5 were ugly. 2-15 with 8 Ks 

His underlying stats are still really strong. #15 in expected wOBA based on his quality of contact. Statcast still views him as the unluckiest qualified player in MLB right now.

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9 minutes ago, djmax101 said:

His underlying stats are still really strong. #15 in expected wOBA based on his quality of contact. Statcast still views him as the unluckiest qualified player in MLB right now.

Your point is 

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6 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Your point is 

Ummm...I would imagine that his point is that if he continues hitting the ball the way he has been that his luck will turn around and that he'll be a productive fantasy asset??? I didn't think that was too tough of a stretch to make....

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27 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Your point is 

Just drop him then, clearly he's a bum. 

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He's an easy bench this week with only 5 games & vs tough SPs, but the arrow is pointing up. A guy with 35HR upside in a good offense is something to hang on to.

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21 minutes ago, whitekenyan24 said:

Ummm...I would imagine that his point is that if he continues hitting the ball the way he has been that his luck will turn around and that he'll be a productive fantasy asset??? I didn't think that was too tough of a stretch to make....

I have my doubts, but I sure hope you are right. 

This morning by a few minutes I missed out on the Yankee outfielder from Colorado. Damn 

Owning Franmil has not gone the way I wanted ... the dude is wasting a space. 

6 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Just drop him then, clearly he's a bum. 

Well we agree on that...

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On ‎4‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 9:46 PM, KilloWertz said:

Because he didn't give the option?  I dunno... 😀

Seriously though, I'd just pick up Frazier and move on.  I don't care about all of the Statcast crap in this regard when a player is hitting under .200.  Like I said earlier, make me believe, Franmil.  Until then, I want nothing to do with a guy who simply isn't producing and hasn't done anything yet in his career to deserve every expert using the Statcast stats as an excuse for a guy simply not producing.

 

I think you're reading the thread wrong.  It's not about making excuses for the guy, it's about trying to be predictive.

 

If you can afford to drop Franmil, then pick him up if & when he starts on a tear, then you should, and more power to you.  That said, I don't see the point of calling the data people are providing you here "Statcast crap".

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Your point is 

 

The point is, people are trying to be predictive.  That's the point of these threads, isn't it?  Anyone can simply look at his season stats, or his last 7 games.  

Edited by 89Topps
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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Your point is 

That a correction is coming. Franmil's closest comps right now (in things like exit velocity, launch angle, batting profile) are Aaron Judge, J.D. Davis, Hunter Dozier, and Christian Walker. That's really good company. It's tempting to see his results so far and think he's a bum, but there's good evidence that process is more predictive of future results than past performance.

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1 hour ago, djmax101 said:

That a correction is coming. Franmil's closest comps right now (in things like exit velocity, launch angle, batting profile) are Aaron Judge, J.D. Davis, Hunter Dozier, and Christian Walker. That's really good company. It's tempting to see his results so far and think he's a bum, but there's good evidence that process is more predictive of future results than past performance.

I been reading about all of his unluckiness, and always bringing up his exit velocity, launch angle, wOBA, BABIP, Hard hit rate, XBA, & XSLG since April 4th. When do you expect we will start seeing some fantasy results? 

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11 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I been reading about all of his unluckiness, and always bringing up his exit velocity, launch angle, wOBA, BABIP, Hard hit rate, XBA, & XSLG since April 4th. When do you expect we will start seeing some fantasy results? 

 

As soon as you and the other weak hands drop him.

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19 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I been reading about all of his unluckiness, and always bringing up his exit velocity, launch angle, wOBA, BABIP, Hard hit rate, XBA, & XSLG since April 4th. When do you expect we will start seeing some fantasy results? 

That's the beauty of fantasy baseball. You get to decide how long you want to wait to find out.

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2 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

I think you're reading the thread wrong.  It's not about making excuses for the guy, it's about trying to be predictive.

 

If you can afford to drop Franmil, then pick him up if & when he starts on a tear, then you should, and more power to you.  That said, I don't see the point of calling the data people are providing you here "Statcast crap".

I was more referring to the experts more than anybody here, but at least some of it is the same data, so I guess it does indeed apply.  The reason why I said that and am being harsh in regards to Reyes is he continues to do nothing beyond the occasional HR even though a ton of experts are saying he's just been unlucky.  They may be right, but until he actually shows any sort of signs of turning around his bad luck, I'm not going to go around tooting his horn and saying he's a must add.  Until he does anything differently, the data isn't really that meaningful.  If he makes me into an idiot and I regret dropping him myself (I did actually pick him up when all the experts said to), then that's fine by me.  I'm definitely not immune to making mistakes in fantasy sports.  I'll be the first to admit that.

If you can afford to stash him on your bench and there's nobody to pick up instead, I don't think there's anything wrong with holding.  I think we can all agree on that the one person that's been asking around here about keeping Reyes or picking up Frazier should just pick up Frazier, but that should be an isolated case and players producing like Frazier is right now shouldn't be sitting out there.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

even though a ton of experts are saying he's just been unlucky

Those experts said that about him for all of last year too.  They can't admit they may have gotten it wrong and that all stats are not created equal.  Also all of these so-called web experts have egos as well.

Maybe he takes off.  Fine.  But to call what has been happening all along as endless, never ending bad luck is just plain illogical.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

Those experts said that about him for all of last year too.  They can't admit they may have gotten it wrong and that all stats are not created equal.

True.  I mean, I get it as the data in front of them does show how unlucky he should be considered, but sometimes the results just are what they are.  We'll see how things go over the next week or so.  If he still doesn't show any real improvements, then I'm guessing it's just not meant to be.

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11 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Those experts said that about him for all of last year too.  They can't admit they may have gotten it wrong and that all stats are not created equal.  Also all of these so-called web experts have egos as well.

Maybe he takes off.  Fine.  But to call what has been happening all along as endless, never ending bad luck is just plain illogical.

He hit .280 with 17HR in half a season last year. Why would anyone admit they're wrong after that season, when we're not even a month into the current season? It seems like the same 5/6 people are arguing with each other(myself included) and no one is convincing the other. We'll see how he looks in a month. 

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Send him to AAAA with Frazier! 

Maybe Reyes can be viable outside of our fantasy statcast leagues, you guys. 

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On 4/22/2019 at 4:49 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Those experts said that about him for all of last year too.  They can't admit they may have gotten it wrong and that all stats are not created equal.  Also all of these so-called web experts have egos as well.

Maybe he takes off.  Fine.  But to call what has been happening all along as endless, never ending bad luck is just plain illogical.

 

I guess I don’t understand what you’re trying to say with that first statement. He had good numbers last year overall, and especially after his second call-up. 

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3 hours ago, Magoo said:

What did I miss?

Reyes hopefully beginning to prove people like me wrong... 😀

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Posted (edited)

You have to wonder what is the percentage of him being owned and the his fantasy owner starting him last night. 

I scored 50% ... 

Edited by shakestreet
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On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 11:31 AM, El_Chingon said:

 Long gone in all of my competitive 12 twelve teamers

i don't know about you guys but I've added and dropped this guy 2-3 times already.  I think ill just hold and wait for the inevitable HR tear to begin.

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Posted (edited)

He’s just sitting on the wire in one of my leagues and I’m tempted to pick up for the third time haha but he would be my first drop again. Just seems like a game at this point.

in another league he’s also on waivers so I will pick him up since I need him a lot more in that league right now. Hope he goes on a tear.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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