Flyman75

Franmil Reyes 2019 Outlook

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17 minutes ago, KrunK said:

So for in a very SSS his splits vs lhp/rhp have flipped around and he's done nothing vs LHP so far. Has one tonight, let's see if he parties like its 2018.

L/R spilts aren’t even normalized over a full season. Particularly for a RHB.

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We should take a poll for everyone that’s owned him all year whether he has 3HR or 8HR for their teams. It probably correlates with the posts lol.

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242boer.jpg

WALK SAFELY

I REPEAT WALK. SAFELY. TO YOUR NEAREST WAIVER WIRE AND ADD THE FRANIMAL WHILE YOU STILL CAN.

THAT IS ALL.

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And then he gets out in his next 3 ABs, including a great showing of "bad luck" by grounding out to the pitcher with the bases loaded.  Now that's proving Statcast is never wrong about a player...

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 3ABs you say?! And outs in all of them?! Well that’s all the analysis I need. Thank you for this gem of information

Edited by BxBOMBERs28
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1 hour ago, KilloWertz said:

And then he gets out in his next 3 ABs, including a great showing of "bad luck" by grounding out to the pitcher with the bases loaded.  Now that's proving Statcast is never wrong about a player...

The first game after a 2 HR game is the most valuable small sample size that exists. Kudos to you for highlighting that.

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8 hours ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

 3ABs you say?! And outs in all of them?! Well that’s all the analysis I need. Thank you for this gem of information

I'm taking this as a heavy dose of sarcasm, and if that's the case, I'm not sure why Reyes keeps getting free passes because he's supposedly suffering from so much bad luck.  Obviously I want him to do good since I'm desperate and own him at the moment, but he needs to step it up and do it for more than once a week. I know it's getting to be a broken record, but it's still true.  Grounding out to the pitcher with the bases loaded is not bad luck.

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What’s the motivation for continuing to post that you don’t like a player? By continually, I mean like every time this thread is bumped I can count on the same two posts from the same people. We get it, you don’t think statcast numbers are useful. 

 

His avg is now up to .233 and on pace for 41 HR. I’m not sure what you were expecting, to be so negative about his performance so far. 

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3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

I'm taking this as a heavy dose of sarcasm, and if that's the case, I'm not sure why Reyes keeps getting free passes because he's supposedly suffering from so much bad luck.  Obviously I want him to do good since I'm desperate and own him at the moment, but he needs to step it up and do it for more than once a week. I know it's getting to be a broken record, but it's still true.  Grounding out to the pitcher with the bases loaded is not bad luck.

Grounding out to the pitcher is not bad luck.. got it. Appreciate this gem of info as well man.

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4 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

What’s the motivation for continuing to post that you don’t like a player? By continually, I mean like every time this thread is bumped I can count on the same two posts from the same people. We get it, you don’t think statcast numbers are useful. 

 

His avg is now up to .233 and on pace for 41 HR. I’m not sure what you were expecting, to be so negative about his performance so far. 

allow me to answer for you. Some people aren't happy unless they are making other people unhappy. But Franmil is a beast and when he takes a smooth swing its so pure. hes the classic less is more scenario when it comes to his swing, Both taters the other day were just stroked perfectly. if he overswings they both are probably ground balls. It looks like he is slowly finding his groove.

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8 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

I'm taking this as a heavy dose of sarcasm, and if that's the case, I'm not sure why Reyes keeps getting free passes because he's supposedly suffering from so much bad luck.  Obviously I want him to do good since I'm desperate and own him at the moment, but he needs to step it up and do it for more than once a week. I know it's getting to be a broken record, but it's still true.  Grounding out to the pitcher with the bases loaded is not bad luck.

 

The only person who can give Franmil a free pass on your team, is you.
 

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He has an .828 OPS after today and that's after a horrid start. I'm all for bashing guys when they're sucking/underperforming, but not sure I understand the animosity towards Franmil from Killo. 

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11 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

What’s the motivation for continuing to post that you don’t like a player? By continually, I mean like every time this thread is bumped I can count on the same two posts from the same people. We get it, you don’t think statcast numbers are useful. 

 

His avg is now up to .233 and on pace for 41 HR. I’m not sure what you were expecting, to be so negative about his performance so far. 

Killowertz is Franchy Cordero

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5 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

The only person who can give Franmil a free pass on your team, is you.
 

That was in reference to him getting free passes on here and such.  People talking as if he's actually good just because his statcast numbers say he is the unluckiest hitter in all of baseball.  When playing fantasy baseball before statcast, we would have just said he sucked.

To be fair, he did have another solid game today, so maybe he is actually coming around.  I've said before that I will "get off his back" so to speak if he actually starts performing on a fairly regular basis, so I'm not just picking on him for no reason or anything.  If he's starting to be able to string together a solid group of games, that'd be great and I'll happily give him praise. 

Edited by KilloWertz
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9 hours ago, Krambone said:

allow me to answer for you. Some people aren't happy unless they are making other people unhappy. But Franmil is a beast and when he takes a smooth swing its so pure. hes the classic less is more scenario when it comes to his swing, Both taters the other day were just stroked perfectly. if he overswings they both are probably ground balls. It looks like he is slowly finding his groove.

The contact and velocity stats are real and predictive. He's been in a groove all year IMHO.

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His .831 OPS and .547 SLG are also real.  #2 on his team in both.  Pretty strong league wide.

Edited by AHF

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10 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

When playing fantasy baseball before statcast, we would have just said he sucked.

 

 

So when new data and research presents itself, we just disregard it because of how things had been in the past?  I hope you’re not in the medical field... or technology...  or education... or engineering... 

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4 hours ago, bigmarc27 said:

So when new data and research presents itself, we just disregard it because of how things had been in the past?  I hope you’re not in the medical field... or technology...  or education... or engineering... 

 

This is a pretty uncharitable reading of what was said.

In your analogy, it's just as bad in the disciplines you cite to latch on to some new research method that hasn't gone through a rigorous peer review process.  Statcast data is great for trying to understand whether there are some underlying skills that might portend better things to come, but they're not as predictive as many people seem to believe.  Unless your league counts barrels or average exit velocity as a stat, you need real stats to come eventually.

We don't yet fully understand the relationship between Statcast numbers today and fantasy production tomorrow, which means that anyone clinging to Statcast numbers is just making an educated guess.  Contextualizing it as anything more than that (and implying that someone else is a Luddite because they don't uncritically accept that better fantasy production is right around the corner) is bad process, regardless of whether the predicted fantasy success occurs.

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It seems like we are being pretty negative on his actual numbers while we argue about "real" fantasy numbers versus statcast data.  According to CBS, he is the #28 OF by 5x5 scoring over the last 28 days.  If you are focused purely on the fantasy stat categories that shouldn't be brushed off in an dismissal of underlying non-category data.  

The underlying numbers love him but the top line numbers have been pretty good for the past month and were excellent last year.  

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Franmil has a career .270 BA with 24 HRs in 385 PAs. Those are no stat cast numbers. That is exactly what he has done. Has he done anything suggests that is over-achieving?

14 hours ago, bdy1 said:

The contact and velocity stats are real and predictive. He's been in a groove all year IMHO.

Of what exactly? Power potential is about the only thing that i've see people can tie some correlation to. He has 8 HRs, so that data point is actualized in his numbers.

Have yet to see concrete correlations between BA ranges or even BABIP ranges with stat cast data. Or really anything beside power output.

Edited by Slatykamora
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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

This is a pretty uncharitable reading of what was said.

In your analogy, it's just as bad in the disciplines you cite to latch on to some new research method that hasn't gone through a rigorous peer review process.  Statcast data is great for trying to understand whether there are some underlying skills that might portend better things to come, but they're not as predictive as many people seem to believe.  Unless your league counts barrels or average exit velocity as a stat, you need real stats to come eventually.

We don't yet fully understand the relationship between Statcast numbers today and fantasy production tomorrow, which means that anyone clinging to Statcast numbers is just making an educated guess.  Contextualizing it as anything more than that (and implying that someone else is a Luddite because they don't uncritically accept that better fantasy production is right around the corner) is bad process, regardless of whether the predicted fantasy success occurs.

Agreed, but we'd much rather have Reyes' statcast numbers than Inciarte's when looking for guys that may be under-performing. I'd imagine that most people looking at statcast data are using it as one of many tools to make their decision on a player's future performance. The statcast data simply reassures my opinion of him based on his minor league performance, which has carried over into the majors and seemed to be a case of misfortune early this year. Most importantly watching him play, and the way he was scorching the ball, backed up what the different sources of data were pointing to(or vice versa). While other stats may be more proven in their relationship to future success, fantasy is always going to be making educated guesses and I think statcast is just another feather in our guessing caps.

 

Most people viewing/commenting on this thread are probably current or prospective Reyes owners, so let's all hope the statcast numbers are right! And like @AHF said, we don't need much more of a turnaround for him to be useful anyway.

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7 for his last 14. Hope you’re hopping on the train while you can if he’s still available. 

Almost like a guy whose absolutely hammering the ball isn’t gonna continuously carry a .200babip while doing so. Funny how that works. 

Edited by KrunK
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Another hit off of Kershaw.  Ok, maybe we're beginning to see what I've been asking for all along, which is several good games in a row in order to shut myself up and jump on the train...

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