Flyman75

Franmil Reyes 2019 Outlook

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I think he's a bench for now. The power is real. I think his homers being mostly solo shots is more of a statistical anomaly.

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16 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

He’s a beast, but he’s pretty streaky. It’s not like he was a .300 hitter so I don’t know what people expected.

Agreed. Betting he finishes with ~.270 avg and 35+ home runs.

Probably playing in an 8 man league if you complain about all of his solo shots, despite the face that he is on a 45 homer pace...

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25 minutes ago, Orioles123 said:

Agreed. Betting he finishes with ~.270 avg and 35+ home runs.

Probably playing in an 8 man league if you complain about all of his solo shots, despite the face that he is on a 45 homer pace...

or some of us play in 10-12 team leagues with K's and AVG and his streaks can be crippling.

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14 minutes ago, Orioles123 said:

Agreed. Betting he finishes with ~.270 avg and 35+ home runs.

Probably playing in an 8 man league if you complain about all of his solo shots, despite the face that he is on a 45 homer pace...

 

I can see 35 HRs, but I can't see him finishing with a .270ish avg. 

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26 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I can see 35 HRs, but I can't see him finishing with a .270ish avg. 

He hit .280 last season in 261 ABs, so a final average of .260-.270 isn't a stretch. 

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39 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I can see 35 HRs, but I can't see him finishing with a .270ish avg. 

.250 babip and .282 xba and a career .266 hitter.

Homboy's ba will improve from .246

Edited by Orioles123
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3 minutes ago, Orioles123 said:

.250 babip and .282 xba and a career .266 hitter.

Homboy's ba will improve from .246

 

Yeah, I get all that. I've owned Franimal since he was called up. He also had a .268 career avg in the minors, strikes out a lot, and doesn't walk much. I don't see a .270 avg from him right now because he's not showing a lot of discipline at the plate, imo. His k% has has increased this year, but more alarming is that his walk rate has been cut by more than half from 2018. And even though is average is higher in May than it was in April, he's walked less and struck out more in May. Don't get me wrong...love the guy, especially because I own him in a keeper league. I believe he's going to hit a lot of HRs in his career and won't hurt in BA most years. But this year, if he doesn't turn the walk-k rates back, he's going to struggle to get his season-long average up to .270. Jmho. 

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14 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

He hit .280 last season in 261 ABs, so a final average of .260-.270 isn't a stretch. 

He's hitting more FBs, swinging at more pitches outside the zone, higher SwStr this year then his rookie year. 

Statcast has not really proven to be an sort of BA indicator like it is for power. Both years he really has not hit a lot of doubles that usually comes with his kinda power. Has not shown to be good at peppering the OF Gaps.

He more or less has been all or nothing hitter. Its over the fence or right at the defender that is there because positioning. 

GB BABIP .170

FB BABIP  .065

LD BABIP  .607

For Comparison; Here is Cody Bellingers BABIP splits who is one the hottest power hitters in baseball

GB BABIP .333

FB BABIP .106

LD BABIP .558

He is way way slower on his feet and swings a lot more pitches outside the K Zone then Bellinger, he's never gonna touch those GB BABIPs. Franmil's rookie year only had a.225 GB BABIP. 

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Guy is pacing near 40 HRs and his average is similar to Khris Davis’ 4 year average.

 

Oh, and he was probably an endgame pick or WW add for most. Some people are never happy.

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29 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah, I get all that. I've owned Franimal since he was called up. He also had a .268 career avg in the minors, strikes out a lot, and doesn't walk much. I don't see a .270 avg from him right now because he's not showing a lot of discipline at the plate, imo. His k% has has increased this year, but more alarming is that his walk rate has been cut by more than half from 2018. And even though is average is higher in May than it was in April, he's walked less and struck out more in May. Don't get me wrong...love the guy, especially because I own him in a keeper league. I believe he's going to hit a lot of HRs in his career and won't hurt in BA most years. But this year, if he doesn't turn the walk-k rates back, he's going to struggle to get his season-long average up to .270. Jmho. 

Also good points! Still plenty of season left, looking forward to see how he develops throughout. 

Also own him in a keeper league, and I cannot see myself moving him, think he will be awesome for a long time 

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Meh, I've moved on from him. He's had enough time to show more.  40 HR isn't all that when you have a .290 OBP.  It's actually been a while since he even hit any dingers.  With a deep bench and other solid options he's nothing special.

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As usual, it depends on league size and whatnot. Saying "meh" or he's not a must-own seems to be a bit of an oversimplification. In an 8- or 10-team redraft league, sure probably not that valuable... in a 12-team redraft, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's probably OK to have a 40-HR guy as your 5th OF almost regardless of OBP.

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Meh, I've moved on from him. He's had enough time to show more.  40 HR isn't all that when you have a .290 OBP.  It's actually been a while since he even hit any dingers.  With a deep bench and other solid options he's nothing special.

Meh, 40 HR is sure nothing special.  After all, only 3 players made it to 40 HR last season.  But nothing special, waiver wire fodder in my 4 team league with deep benches.

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45 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Meh, 40 HR is sure nothing special.  After all, only 3 players made it to 40 HR last season.  But nothing special, waiver wire fodder in my 4 team league with deep benches.

12-team points league with 5 OF + UT/DH.  Sorry, he just doesn't cut the mustard!! And we're not talking about last year, chief. No one was taking Hunter Pence last year.  There's been so many young players brought up who have done great.  If you were quick enough, and not married to a player that isn't getting the job done, then you would have those better players.   Mercado, Reynolds, Riley, Frazier, etc.   Could field a team with these guys better than Reyes if you were savvy enough. This is for 12-team point leagues.  16 team leagues is a different animal, obviously not going to cut a guy like Reyes then.

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27 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

12-team points league with 5 OF + UT/DH.  Sorry, he just doesn't cut the mustard!! And we're not talking about last year, chief. No one was taking Hunter Pence last year.  There's been so many young players brought up who have done great.  If you were quick enough, and not married to a player that isn't getting the job done, then you would have those better players.   Mercado, Reynolds, Riley, Frazier, etc.   Could field a team with these guys better than Reyes if you were savvy enough. This is for 12-team point leagues.  16 team leagues is a different animal, obviously not going to cut a guy like Reyes then.

 

Yeah, in my points league I wouldn’t want Reyes. In fact, he’s taken up residence on the wire in that league. In a 5x5 with 5 OF, I believe he should be owned. 

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2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

Guy is pacing near 40 HRs and his average is similar to Khris Davis’ 4 year average.

 

Oh, and he was probably an endgame pick or WW add for most. Some people are never happy.

Except Khris Davis' value comes from more than just HR's.

 

He's gotten run totals of 85, 91, and 98 the last three years and RBI totals of 102, 110, and 123.

 

Reyes is on pace for 69 runs and 78 RBI's this season. One category performer like I said.

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8 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Except Khris Davis' value comes from more than just HR's.

 

He's gotten run totals of 85, 91, and 98 the last three years and RBI totals of 102, 110, and 123.

 

Reyes is on pace for 69 runs and 78 RBI's this season. One category performer like I said.

 

And Davis would be on pace for similar numbers this year if not for the injury. He’s a three-cat slugger...much more valuable than Franmil right now. 

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22 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

Debating whether a guy on a 40 HR pace is droppable...God what a time to be alive

Well it was debated back a few years for Chris Carter, Mark Trumbo and Adam Dunn at times.  And that was pre juiced ball era too.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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10 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

Debating whether a guy on a 40 HR pace is droppable...God what a time to be alive

 

In a points league, those 40 HRs are not as valuable when he's not hitting doubles, not scoring many runs, not driving in many runs, not walking very much, is carrying a sub-.250 avg, and is striking out a lot. 

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1 hour ago, ktierne3 said:

Debating whether a guy on a 40 HR pace is droppable...God what a time to be alive

 

BBT beat me to the Chris Carter comp, but I think it's worth unpacking a bit more as a way to talk about a player being "droppable" vs. it being the correct decision to drop them knowing how they finished.

Carter was, I would argue, droppable in standard mixed leagues at times during his 41-homer 2016 season.  He finished as a ~$12 player in 12-teamers, which was good for the 15th overall 1B that year.  That's a player that, if you knew what he'd do all season, someone in your league should have held on to.  But that doesn't mean he wasn't "droppable".

Carter had some brutal stretches where he gave you nothing for weeks at a time, and on many fantasy teams he was the worst regular player during those stretches -- that's just how it works with an uneven distribution of talent across the league.  He may have been the 20th or 25th best 1B at the time, and even if you held out hope that he'd finish 8th, what if you already have the 3rd and 5th best, and he's just a util bat?

You're taking a risk any time you choose to drop a player.  You find the player on your roster that you think is worth the least to you rest of season to take a chance on something else.  And without any scarce positional eligibility (1B was crazy deep that year) and no track record to speak of, the decision to drop him was very defensible -- a lot of teams probably had him as the worst player on their roster.  So what if he was a marginal upgrade for someone else?  If you need the room and see something better, you go get it.

Of course, Carter's ~.220ish average was more of a detriment than the ~.250ish we expect from Franmil, so the calculus was different there.  On the other hand, remember that homers were harder to come by in 2016 than they are now, so I'd argue pacing for 40 homers isn't quite what it used to be.

My personal feeling -- Franimal is a hold right now in most leagues.  I'm holding him in a 10-team 5 OF 5x5 league because I think he's going to finish as a top 40 OF.  But if something that I think helps me win is out there and he's still slumping, I think he would qualify as "droppable".  I'd try to seek a trade partner first, but if you don't find a believer, don't hurt your team waiting for the rebound that might not come.

 

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8 hours ago, crotchcrickets said:

Franmil "Wily Mo Pena" Reyes

 

Franmil "pre-2019 Joey Gallo" Reyes.

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