Flyman75

Franmil Reyes 2019 Outlook

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

Nah. That puts him in the 105-110 game range, and I firmly believe he plays more than that.

Renfroe hit 26 homers in just 403 ABs last year so they just aren't gonna bag and tag him.  He will probably get as many ABs as Franmil until SD starts culling the herd and trades/demotes/fake DLs some of these guys.

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13 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Renfroe hit 26 homers in just 403 ABs last year so they just aren't gonna bag and tag him.  He will probably get as many ABs as Franmil until SD starts culling the herd and trades/demotes/fake DLs some of these guys.

Imo and the padres seem to agree Franmil floor is probably higher than renfroe’s ceiling

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23 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Renfroe hit 26 homers in just 403 ABs last year so they just aren't gonna bag and tag him.  He will probably get as many ABs as Franmil until SD starts culling the herd and trades/demotes/fake DLs some of these guys.

 

I get that, and I'm saying nothing of Renfroe. I'm speaking of Reyes :), and I don't see him getting only 105-110 games, which is what you projected. If they commit to trying Myers in CF, then their OF (as terrible as it would be defensively) would be Renfroe-Myers-Reyes. If healthy, I just don't see Franmil getting as few games as you projected. 

Edited by Flyman75

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I get that, and I'm saying nothing of Renfroe. I'm speaking of Reyes :), and I don't see him getting only 105-110 games, which is what you projected. If they commit to trying Myers in CF, then their OF (as terrible as it would be defensively) would be Renfroe-Myers-Reyes. If healthy, I just don't see Franmil getting as few games as you projected. 

I'm not projecting that UNLESS they keep all those darn outfielders.  They have to cull the herd.

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23 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

Imo and the padres seem to agree Franmil floor is probably higher than renfroe’s ceiling

Well Renfroe's projections this season are 31 homers so I find it hard to believe Franmil will have that as his "floor" though maybe his ceiling given though pitchers are still adjusting to him.

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41 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I'm not projecting that UNLESS they keep all those darn outfielders.  They have to cull the herd.

 

Gotcha. Tbh, I think they should send Cordero to AAA and let him get everyday ABs. 

 

But I just took a look at RotoChamp and RR, and both have Reyes on the bench and Cordero starting in CF. Hmmm...

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Geez. The Padres need to trade some outfielders for the sole purpose of me being able to insert Reyes into my fantasy line up. This is ridiculous, unacceptable, and upsetting for me trying to solve this puzzle.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

Imo and the padres seem to agree Franmil floor is probably higher than renfroe’s ceiling

Lol what? What in the world makes you think the Padres think this. 

The notion that Reyes FLOOR is higher than Renfroe's CEILING is absolutely laughable. It's nonsense. 

Renfroe is a high pedigree 70 grade power OF who is a superior athlete and better fielder than Reyes.

Edited by StevieStats
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17 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Lol what? What in the world makes you think the Padres think this. 

The notion that Reyes FLOOR is higher than Renfroe's CEILING is absolutely laughable. It's nonsense. 

Renfroe is a high pedigree 70 grade power OF who is a superior athlete and better fielder than Reyes.

 

Ummm sweetie....

 

Franmil has the same 70 raw power grade

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14566&position=OF

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A few people conveniently ignoring that this guy is a linebacker trying to patrol an outfield. Love the power potential but defense is a thing.

Edited by Hockey_Baseball
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2 hours ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

A few people conveniently ignoring that this guy is a linebacker trying to patrol an outfield. Love the power potential but defense is a thing.

Says the team playing Wil Myers in cf

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2 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Lol what? What in the world makes you think the Padres think this. 

The notion that Reyes FLOOR is higher than Renfroe's CEILING is absolutely laughable. It's nonsense. 

Renfroe is a high pedigree 70 grade power OF who is a superior athlete and better fielder than Reyes.

Renfroes ceiling is a 250/300 30 hr type guy

same at bats I put that as Reyes floor

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4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Well Renfroe's projections this season are 31 homers so I find it hard to believe Franmil will have that as his "floor" though maybe his ceiling given though pitchers are still adjusting to him.

Renfroe’s projections are based on him getting 500+ at bats. Which I don’t think he does unless Myers gets hurt

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3 hours ago, clarkevii said:

 

Ummm sweetie....

 

Franmil has the same 70 raw power grade

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14566&position=OF

I know that buttercup... but he is saying Reyes floor is higher than Renfroe's ceiling... Renfroe has a 40 HR ceiling, so Reyes floor is what 42 HR? ... I'm not saying Reyes can't be better, just that his floor isn't > Renfroe's CEILING. That's just madness.

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

Renfroes ceiling is a 250/300 30 hr type guy

same at bats I put that as Reyes floor

Renfroe's ceiling is not 30 HR... he just hit 26 in 117 games last year... in 2016 he hit 34 in minors and majors combined so he already breaks what you call his ceiling... he's a 70 grade power hitter with 40 HR potential. 

Reyes hit 30 HR for the first time in his career last year with 16 in minors and 16 in majors... considering that being his first time doing it and his 50% GB rate, I'd be hard pressed to say 30 HR is his floor.

Edited by StevieStats
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so what you are saying is that homers is what we are discussing, while I am talking about avg/ops/obp etc

I think a guy hitting 280/330 with 30 homers is better than a 250/300 with 40

 

Edited by Golden Spikes

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14 hours ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

A few people conveniently ignoring that this guy is a linebacker trying to patrol an outfield. Love the power potential but defense is a thing.

 

Linebacker? Dude's a DE, LOL. He's a big ole boy tailor-made for DH. 

 

9 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

so what you are saying is that homers is what we are discussing, while I am talking about avg/ops/obp etc

I think a guy hitting 280/330 with 30 homers is better than a 250/300 with 40

 

I don't really look at Reyes as a .280 hitter. He's a career .268 hitter in the minors and until last year, he had hit .280 or higher once in 2013 (though he did come close in 2016). But, he's young and last year at AAA (albeit the PCL) and in SD does offer hope. 

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11 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Renfroe's ceiling is not 30 HR... he just hit 26 in 117 games last year... in 2016 he hit 34 in minors and majors combined so he already breaks what you call his ceiling... he's a 70 grade power hitter with 40 HR potential. 

Reyes hit 30 HR for the first time in his career last year with 16 in minors and 16 in majors... considering that being his first time doing it and his 50% GB rate, I'd be hard pressed to say 30 HR is his floor.

 

I agree with you that Renfroe's ceiling is not 30 HR. I also agree that Reyes' floor this year is not 30 HR, but I do think it won't be too much longer before we'll be able to say that. He's only 23, and we've seen his HRs increase from 8 at A in 2015, to 16 at A+ in 2016, to 25 at AA in 2017, to 32 at AAA/MLB last year. The trend seems to indicate that his power is growing as his body matures, and I think it's very possible that we may be discussing a 30 HR floor as early as 2020. Jmho :)

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Not sure what the debate is here...renfroe is a starter and Reyes is not unless injuries happen

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Not sure what the debate is here...renfroe is a starter and Reyes is not unless injuries happen

not sure where you get your info

Reyes has hit cleanup every game he has played in the spring, which coincide with every game that Manny and Hosmer have hit 1-2

Padres lineup top 5 daily will be Kinsler-Hosmer-Manny-Reyes-Myers

Renfroe/Margot are the odd men out

Edited by Golden Spikes
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So really what we have here is the Renfroe owners and the Reyes owners going back in forth at each other because they want their player to get the at bats. At this point, this thread isn’t helping anyone. We will see what the Padres do.

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Ok...latest mlb.com lineups has Reyes batting 5th with Myers and Margot in the of. What a mess

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Ok...latest mlb.com lineups has Reyes batting 5th with Myers and Margot in the of. What a mess

MLB has no clue, it also has Myers hitting 4th, Hosmer 3rd and Manny 2nd

not one of those things have occurred at all this spring

every time all 4 of those guys have played it has always been Hosmer-Manny-Reyes-Myers

what I think happens is Renfroe-Urias-Hedges sometimes, then Mejia-Urias-Margot others, basically when Mejia is in there you sacrifice defense behind the plate and add defense in the OF

 

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The Padres aren't going to compete this year. 

They have a ton of position and pitcher battles going on, and they need to use this year to figure those out. 

CF - Margot (final chance) or Cordero...or do they need to find a FA for next year. 

LF - Myers or other (mess)...can Myers stick and stay healthy. 

RF - Renfroe or Reyes...are either legit? Can Renfroe improve on the BA? Can he produce? Can Reyes expand on last year?

 

Regardless of who breaks out, I think we are going to see reduced results from what you expect. 

- If Renfroe breaks out, Reyes will take the back seat. 

- If Reyes breaks out, they still need to play Renfroe quite a bit to sell him to another team. 

The Padres want both players to succeed, and see what they've got in the OF. I would expect 300-400 ABs for both this year, unless one gets injured or one tanks. Anything else is just conjecture at this point. 

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

not sure where you get your info

Reyes has hit cleanup every game he has played in the spring, which coincide with every game that Manny and Hosmer have hit 1-2

Padres lineup top 5 daily will be Kinsler-Hosmer-Manny-Reyes-Myers

Renfroe/Margot are the odd men out

 

He could be getting it from RotoChamp and RosterResource, both of which have Renfroe starting and Reyes on the bench. Not saying they're correct...just pointing out that he's not pulling it out of thin air. 

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