FF4life

Adam Humphries 2018 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, Tugginroot said:

People still starting, with Jackson active??

Have no choice with Hill on a bye, but he has been playing well the past few weeks with Jackson in the lineup.

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How is this guy still so underrated?

 

This is not a fluke anymore - it's a trend.

 

I would start Humphries over guys like Alshon, Landry, Baldwin, Tate, Allen Robinson, Sanu, etc ROS

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21 minutes ago, FF4life said:

How is this guy still so underrated?

 

This is not a fluke anymore - it's a trend.

 

I would start Humphries over guys like Alshon, Landry, Baldwin, Tate, Allen Robinson, Sanu, etc ROS

 

I don't know but I've slept on him long enough and am in desperate need of WR help after relying on Jeffrey, M. Jones, MVS and Robinson the past few weeks. I guess he isn't a sexy name, nothing about him athletically stands out and when you think of Tampa's receiving corp you think of Evans, Godwin, DJax and both the TEs and probably Humphries doesn't even register for most people. I think there is also some hesitancy toward guys who emerge later in the season especially in a crowded situation like Tampa where his emergence wasn't really tied to an injury. Tampa throws it a ton though and he has strung together 5 strong weeks. I don't know why I didn't add him sooner. 

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I read an interesting take a few weeks back on Humphries from an analyst on Twitter. It was a hypothetical, but basically stated, with Humphries a FA at the end of the season, if Edelman hangs it up in NE, this is the type of dude BB loves.

 

Plus he’s a scrappy little white guy so that is perfect for what the Pats do on offense.

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Good guy to have late if you're struggling at wr3. There is risk if bad Winston shows up but he's still in a better situation than some other wrs out there

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This guy has been very good the last few weeks and a great fit in my WR3 spot.  Unfortunately, I won't need him until Week 15-16 with my bye week locked up and it looks like two tough match ups with Baltimore and then Dallas.  Will have to decide between him and the very boom/ mostly bust Ridley.

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11 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

The snap % leaves much to be desired but he's making the most of his time on the field

 

Wonder if TB will start giving him some of Goodwin’s snaps. He’s definitely been doing more with less.

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He’s 1 of 17 WRs to have 5 plus games with 10 plus points since week 6. Tempted to start him this week. Very safe floor.

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I'm rolling him out this week (1PPR) as my 2nd WR behind Cooks (over Ridley, Landry, Sutton and Kirk).

 

RW Starts:

Adam Humphries vs. Panthers: Humphries makes an appearance for the second-straight week after posting a 6-54-1 day on the Niners en route to the WR23 day in Week 12. Humphries (27) ran one fewer route than both DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin (28) and was on the field for just 52.1% of the downs, but the Bucs were nursing a comfortable lead and didn’t have to go three- and four-wide in comeback mode against San Francisco. Humphries is still second on the team to Mike Evans in routes over the last four weeks and eighth among all wideouts in the league over that span. He’s been on the field plenty and has averaged 6.3 targets in games started and finished by Jameis Winston. Humphries caught all eight of his targets for 82 yards and two touchdowns against this same Carolina defense back in Week 9 with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the controls. The Panthers are 27th in pass-defense DVOA and 20th in fantasy points surrendered to wideouts. Nickel CB Captain Munnerlyn is Pro Football Focus’ No. 89 cover corner out of 114 qualifiers. Slot WRs Doug Baldwin (5-39), Bruce Ellington (6-52), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-90-1), Humphries (8-82-2), Willie Snead (5-54), Sterling Shepard (4-75), Tyler Boyd (6-132-1), and Cole Beasley (7-73) have met or exceeded expectations against Carolina. Humphries is back in the WR3 picture in a game with the highest total on the board at 55.5 points. Tampa Bay throws the ball at the seventh-highest rate.

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Yeah I am putting him in there as my WR3 for the 1st Rd...sitting Landry and TreQ

I think last week his lower snap % was a game flow thing--not that he didn't contribute tho

This week I can see a sneaky shoot-out developing and the Car nickel/slot guy is NOT good...arrow^

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50 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah I am putting him in there as my WR3 for the 1st Rd...sitting Landry and TreQ

I think last week his lower snap % was a game flow thing--not that he didn't contribute tho

This week I can see a sneaky shoot-out developing and the Car nickel/slot guy is NOT good...arrow^

 

Agree. Should provide a fairly safe floor in PPR.

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D-Jax not catching at Thursday's practice. 

 

Jackson didn't catch any passes during Thursday's session. He was also spotted wearing a cast on his injured left thumb. Jimmy Graham played through a similar injury for Green Bay last week but we wouldn't consider D-Jax a lock to suit up Sunday against Carolina. If he sits, it would open up looks downfield for Chris Godwin.


https://twitter.com/NFLSTROUD/status/1068208808764342272

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Via Gridironexperts:

 

Since the Buccaneers have already ruled out DeSean Jackson for Sunday’s tilt with the Panthers due to a thumb injury, the door is opened for both Chris Godwin and Adam Humpries to have a greater role in the Tampa Bay high-flying passing attack. For Godwin, he is likely going to start opposite Mike Evans, which means Humphries is poised to eat in the slot, his usual role.

 

While Godwin has been hit or miss this season, he should fare well his latest matchup with the Panthers compared to their Week 9 encounter in which he only caught 2-of-3 targets for 40 yards. And although Godwin has put up at least 8.0 PPR points in each of the past three games since, he did manage to go off for a big 17.3-point PPR outing back in Week 10 against the Redskins on a 7/103/0 stat line with Jackson active. Without Jackson in the mix, Godwin should see an uptick in targets which will likely translate into production considering the Panthers have given up 43.7 percent more fantasy points above the 22.6 league average in the past three games.

 

That said, Humphries should also be productive against a Panthers defense allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to WRs this season at a 25.1 FPPG rate. Moreover, they have also surrendered at least 19.3 PPR points to six different wideouts in the past four games including an 8/82/2 line on eight targets to Humphries in their previous Week 9 encounter, which was the speedy slot receiver’s breakout game of the year. In fact, in a four-game stretch since his fantastic outing against Carolina back in Week 9, Humphries has gone for at least 11.4 PPR points three times, scoring four TDs in that timespan. The icing on the cake? Humphries is the WR10 with 68.6 points in PPR scoring formats since Week 9.

 

While I like both Godwin and Humphries this week, Godwin is more of an opportunity-dependent Flex option who might need to score to return value. But since he is expected to draw the 70th ranked cornerback Donte Jackson in coverage, I like Godwin’s odds to win his WR/ CB matchup. I’ll echo those sentiments going in Humphries’ direction as well considering he will likely draw the 77th ranked corner Captain Munnerlyn in coverage, who has been torched in his own right. Although both Godwin and Humphries should accumulate double-digit points in PPR scoring formats in Week 13, I believe the latter is a much safer bet to do the most damage in a game that opened with a whopping 55.5-point total.

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The more and more I read, the more and more I love Humphries this week.

 

Slot man Humphries is an underrated WR3 in this probable shootout. Slot CB Captain Munnerlyn is Carolina’s weakest cover man, as Tyler Boyd (6/132/1), Tyler Lockett (5/107/1), JuJu Smith-Schuster(3/90/1), Humphries himself (8/82/2), Sterling Shepard (4/75/0), Cole Beasley (7/73/0), and Bruce Ellington (6/52/0) can all attest. 

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