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Slatykamora

Manuel Margot 2019 Outlook

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22 Year old Margot went .263, 13 HRs and 17 SBs in 126 games

 

23 Year old Margot: Lowerd his K (20% to 17%) , Raised his Hard% (25% to 39%), Lowerd his Soft % (26% to 20%), 4 more XBH in 10 less PAs.

 

So what happened? The results were worse. Especially Fastballs. Ended up chasing more high cheese. Pitchers busted him high and tight. Inducing a lot more pop ups. His SB efficiency went in the crapper too. Player growth is never linear. 

 

20/20 high BA/total 5 category upside. He's flashing a hidden moderate power profile behind the 8 HRs this year, 65-70 Speed. Has great barrel control and good feel for contact. Patience and strike zone recognition are good enough.  His rough edges are more typical of young player and not a lack of talent. I love guys who flash skill improvements and he really did that despite worse results. 

 

Competition with Coredro and Jani for CF. Defensively he's the best of the 3.  He's more a 5 OF play or deeper leagues, but his upside is fantasy friendly and he does a lot of things I look for.

 

Statcast Profile       Fangraphs Profile       Brooks Baseball Pitch Fx

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Read in various places that he is the starting CF for now.  Anyone see him taking a step forward this year and being relevant?

 

Also wondering where people see him in a dynasty perspective, IBW is high on him and has him all the way up at 149 overall, anyone else buying into that?

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It's hard for me with Margot. I don't see anything that particularly says "this guy is about to step-forward / breakout," but unlike most players in his... somewhat trending downward situation... I also don't think I see anyting that really tells me Margot CAN'T become a good MLB player. Right now I'm kind've projecting Margot on a trajectory towards becoming a solid all around hitter, but it's a slow trajectory and I'm not all too confident we see numbers akin to redraft value. 

 

Wouldn't mind getting him in Dynasties if the money is right. 

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

It's hard for me with Margot. I don't see anything that particularly says "this guy is about to step-forward / breakout," but unlike most players in his... somewhat trending downward situation... I also don't think I see anyting that really tells me Margot CAN'T become a good MLB player. Right now I'm kind've projecting Margot on a trajectory towards becoming a solid all around hitter, but it's a slow trajectory and I'm not all too confident we see numbers akin to redraft value. 

 

Wouldn't mind getting him in Dynasties if the money is right. 

 

Pretty similar to the IBW blurb.  I think I'm on the same page of him making his way slowly to fantasy relevance, but he clearly has the tools to do it.  The power/speed combo is there and as the OP pointed out, he didn't make some steps in the right direction last year.  Definitely don't think he holds much value in redraft, but if he gets the playing time I see him moving up significantly in dynasty value as the year goes on.  I think IBW's projections for this year are very attainable and a future 15+ hr / 25+ sb threat is definitely worth holding on to.

 

" On the Lorenzo Cain/Jean Segura career path. Might take Margot a few years to really hit his stride, but once he does, he will be a consistent source of steals with double digit homers. 2019 Projection: 62/13/55/.263/.317/.410/19 Prime Projection: 86/15/61/.281/.337/.445/25"

 

 

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1 minute ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

Pretty similar to the IBW blurb.  I think I'm on the same page of him making his way slowly to fantasy relevance, but he clearly has the tools to do it.  The power/speed combo is there and as the OP pointed out, he didn't make some steps in the right direction last year.  Definitely don't think he holds much value in redraft, but if he gets the playing time I see him moving up significantly in dynasty value as the year goes on.  I think IBW's projections for this year are very attainable and a future 15+ hr / 25+ sb threat is definitely worth holding on to.

 

" On the Lorenzo Cain/Jean Segura career path. Might take Margot a few years to really hit his stride, but once he does, he will be a consistent source of steals with double digit homers. 2019 Projection: 62/13/55/.263/.317/.410/19 Prime Projection: 86/15/61/.281/.337/.445/25"

 

 

 

Ah I actually really love they comped him to Cain and Segura. I hadn't thought about that but do hope he gets there. Getting there is obviously no sure thing and that's why those two are such the respected ball players, at least in my mind, that they are. 

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Not a fan at all.  Could easily see him being unseated at some point.  One of those guys who’s speed doesn’t translate into SB ability.  Atrocious %, don’t like his hitting skills whatsoever.  He’s going to be a Rosario type player.  Going to need 600+ plate appearances, and 155+ games to give value back.  The road to stats will be horrifically ugly.  

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He was bad last year but you have to remember he was playing hurt and he re-tooled his swing mid-season.  Good post-hype target for sure.

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he will be somebody you should add to your watch list but there are too many other similar type players to draft manny 

pillar , gardner, kk

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On 3/3/2019 at 3:52 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Not a fan at all.  Could easily see him being unseated at some point.  One of those guys who’s speed doesn’t translate into SB ability.  Atrocious %, don’t like his hitting skills whatsoever.  He’s going to be a Rosario type player.  Going to need 600+ plate appearances, and 155+ games to give value back.  The road to stats will be horrifically ugly.  

 

Could be unseated, but he's battling a worse hitter than him in CF, lol. 

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I know, I know the SD OF situation isn't great right now, but I think there's something here. 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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I was all in on him last year and got burned, but definitely think he’s got a lot to offer.  My biggest concern with the upside right now is his sb success rate.  He was 11 for 21 last year...awful...and even this spring he’s been 2 for 5.  He’s got the speed but clearly not the best instinct on the bases.

 

I still think this year is gonna be a “learning” year for him.  He’ll make some gains at the plate but the overall numbers will probably still be lack luster by the end of the year.  At his current price though I think he just needs to get back to his rookie numbers and hit 10+ hrs with 15+ Sbs to be worth the adp.  His average should be around .260 at least. 

 

In the future I think there is that 15/30 year in him, just don’t think it’s now, especially with all the competition in that outfield.

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SD has a lot of talented OF'ers.  Too many really, and with no DH I think the bulk of the value guys suffer from a lack of ABs.  Myers is gonna play, which leaves 4 guys sharing the remaining 2 OF spots.  Cordero & Margot in CF, Reyes & Renfroe in RF.  Unless a trade, injury, or demotion happens it's hard to invest a roster spot in Margot unless your league has a big bench.

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3 hours ago, CraftyRighty said:

Why was Margot replaced in the third last night?

 

 

 

Double switch.  

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5 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

Double switch.  

 

In the 3rd inning?

 

How can we trust Margot with crap like this going on

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1 hour ago, RolandoRoomes said:

 

In the 3rd inning?

 

How can we trust Margot with crap like this going on

 

blame Matt Strahm

 

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Not out of the question Margo is at the top of the lineup every day sooner or later.  Kinsler looks like he might be cooked.

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5 hours ago, Fantasyguy007 said:

Not looking to mad, is Manny starting or splitting?

 

Bad? I agree this guy can hit! He is gonna be a darling in my #4 OF spot this year no doubt

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Leading off today against a right handed pitcher.  

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What's going on with this dude! He looks good, getting PT, has a great track record in MiLB, why is he sitting on waivers in 4/5 leagues? Does he have foot/mouth or something?

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14 hours ago, CharlesHustle said:

What's going on with this dude! He looks good, getting PT, has a great track record in MiLB, why is he sitting on waivers in 4/5 leagues? Does he have foot/mouth or something?

He's been around a while and only ever carried potential. The numbers he's actually put up in the majors have been pedestrian. Only reason he's getting a good run is because Franchy Cordero is hurt. Once he's back, there's 5 OF for 3 spots in SD once again.

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Cordero out probably a minimum of 8 weeks and likely longer.  Margo still batting at the top of the order as of yesterday.  

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Just dropped Clint Frazier for Margot.  I think this is the Padre's year, with a great lineup, and healthy mix of young talent plus proven veterans.  Margot is going to score a ton of runs. I believe he sticks as the leadoff hitter, bats 280 with 20/20 potential. 

 

His game reminds me a lot of Puig without the mental problems.  I've been high on Margot for a couple years, and love seeing him play with confidence.  The Padres management know they can compete this year, and a productive Margot is a major asset for a playoff push / run.

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