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New York Yankees 2019 Outlook

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3 hours ago, Cheppy said:

 

Instead of me simply stating they needed to go the opposite way more is admittedly a bad job on my part. What I meant but didn't provide enough nuance there was their complete lack of playing situational baseball. IE executing hit and runs and generally having an approach besides going yard. And again, I acknowledged they're going to hit a ton of homeruns and in the stat sheet look impressive during the regular season. But if you're content with regular season success then more power to you. As a Yankee fan you're practically a unicorn.

 

Now in my original comment I also made a point of stating "if" they make it to October so no, we're not 100% on the same page. And it's not rocket science, the playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. I mean, an NFL team that plays in a dome that kills it during the regular season and puts up gaudy stats only to wilt in the playoffs when the you have to play in bad weather and more of an emphasis is put on fundamentals isn't a very surprising outcome even to casual fans. Same applies here. Like I pointed out already generally speaking you're facing the best pitching the league has to offer. First and foremost pitching is paramount but having a three-dimensional lineup is also very integral in a team advancing and that's something the Yankees don't have. If you're overly reliant on the longball it's a detriment. (or any other facet for that matter) And that's compounded by the lineup being right-hand heavy.

With respect, what is your evidence that they “completely lack” any ability to play situational baseball?  Can you cite any stats or analysis evidencing such a lack?  I watch the Yanks constantly, and I strongly believe each hitter has an ability to alter his approach according to situation.  And I’m sure I’ve seen hit-and-run plays pulled off successfully over the course of the past year or so.

Of course I want them to win it all - but I’m taking exception to the notion (not just your personal opinion, mind you) that the Yankees are “doomed” in October because they can only score via a homer.  I’ve literally seen them score off singles and XBHs countless times - with my own eyes!  And who’s to say that, if they do make the playoffs, they will have learned a lesson from past struggles and enter those games prepared to manufacture runs if need be?

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

With respect, what is your evidence that they “completely lack” any ability to play situational baseball?  Can you cite any stats or analysis evidencing such a lack?  I watch the Yanks constantly, and I strongly believe each hitter has an ability to alter his approach according to situation.  And I’m sure I’ve seen hit-and-run plays pulled off successfully over the course of the past year or so.

Of course I want them to win it all - but I’m taking exception to the notion (not just your personal opinion, mind you) that the Yankees are “doomed” in October because they can only score via a homer.  I’ve literally seen them score off singles and XBHs countless times - with my own eyes!  And who’s to say that, if they do make the playoffs, they will have learned a lesson from past struggles and enter those games prepared to manufacture runs if need be?

I think it is more like it makes their task more difficult.  Their ability to scratch out 2-3 of runs against quality pitching when it is on has proven to be limited the past couple of years imo.  Of course, even ace pitchers have off games and make mistakes (see Kluber 2 years ago).  However, their desire to swing for the fences does not usually play well against front line starters who are on their game.  Simply put, Sale or Kluber or Verlander, etc are unlikely to hang too many sliders during a playoff game if they are on.

 

As to playing situation baseball: 

Number of hit and runs...0   They have not run a true hit and run (as opposed to a straight steal the batter swings at) in years to my knowledge.

Number of sluggers that can lay down a bunt...0  Do not think they could if they wanted to.

Number of hitters that will go the opposite way for a single with 2 strikes and men in scoring position:   Voit and Andujar (hurt)...sometimes Torres....sometimes Hicks.

They do take the extra base when they can as Judge and a number of them run the bases pretty well imo.

Hitters that work the count:  Judge and Hicks.  Most of the others are free swingers.

As to teaching an old dog new tricks...not likely.  Stanton and that stupid closed stance of his he refuses to change.  Judge has HRs on his mind all the time (though he takes his walks).  Sanchez, despite being Mendoza line challenged, is always trying to hit one 500 ft.

 

 

 

Edited by secretagentman

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29 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

I think it is more like it makes their task more difficult.  Their ability to scratch out 2-3 of runs against quality pitching when it is on has proven to be limited the past couple of years imo.  Of course, even ace pitchers have off games and make mistakes (see Kluber 2 years ago).  However, their desire to swing for the fences does not usually play well against front line starters who are on their game.  Simply put, Sale or Kluber or Verlander, etc are unlikely to hang too many sliders during a playoff game if they are on.

 

As to playing situation baseball: 

Number of hit and runs...0   They have not run a true hit and run (as opposed to a straight steal the batter swings at) in years to my knowledge.

Number of sluggers that can lay down a bunt...0  Do not think they could if they wanted to.

Number of hitters that will go the opposite way for a single with 2 strikes and men in scoring position:   Voit and Andujar (hurt)...sometimes Torres....sometimes Hicks.

They do take the extra base when they can as Judge and a number of them run the bases pretty well imo.

Hitters that work the count:  Judge and Hicks.  Most of the others are free swingers.

As to teaching an old dog new tricks...not likely.  Stanton and that stupid closed stance of his he refuses to change.  Judge has HRs on his mind all the time (though he takes his walks).  Sanchez, despite being Mendoza line challenged, is always trying to hit one 500 ft.

 

 

 

While I agree with much of what you wrote, I thought I’d offer a couple of points in response:

1. While used sparingly, the Yankees have used the hit-and-run play more than zero times in recent years - in case you don’t believe that, here’s just one example from last July: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pinstripealley.com/platform/amp/2018/7/24/17610212/yankees-game-score-recap-rays-masahiro-tanaka-neil-walker-miguel-andujar

2. As for laying down bunts, the Yankees’ downward trend in this area mirrors the overall downward trend league-wide in recent years - that said, they still bunted more frequently than about a 1/5 of MLB teams last year: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pinstripealley.com/platform/amp/2018/6/16/17467822/yankees-strategy-league-tactics-bunts-steals-shifts-walks

3. As I stated earlier in this thread, the team overall hit to the opposite field more frequently than all but three teams last year, including in situations with runners on.  Ironically, Hicks really struggles to do so among current Yankees:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pinstripealley.com/platform/amp/2018/6/1/17410078/new-york-yankees-analysis-defensive-shifts-offense-stats

4. Whenever I think of hitters that work counts, one image immediately comes to mind, an image of a player you didn’t even mention: Brett Gardner.  Surely you agree if you’ve ever watched the Yanks for any appreciable period.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

While I agree with much of what you wrote, I thought I’d offer a couple of points in response:

1. While used sparingly, the Yankees have used the hit-and-run play more than zero times in recent years - in case you don’t believe that, here’s just one example from last July: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pinstripealley.com/platform/amp/2018/7/24/17610212/yankees-game-score-recap-rays-masahiro-tanaka-neil-walker-miguel-andujar

2. As for laying down bunts, the Yankees’ downward trend in this area mirrors the overall downward trend league-wide in recent years - that said, they still bunted more frequently than about a 1/5 of MLB teams last year: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pinstripealley.com/platform/amp/2018/6/16/17467822/yankees-strategy-league-tactics-bunts-steals-shifts-walks

3. As I stated earlier in this thread, the team overall hit to the opposite field more frequently than all but three teams last year, including in situations with runners on.  Ironically, Hicks really struggles to do so among current Yankees:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pinstripealley.com/platform/amp/2018/6/1/17410078/new-york-yankees-analysis-defensive-shifts-offense-stats

4. Whenever I think of hitters that work counts, one image immediately comes to mind, an image of a player you didn’t even mention: Brett Gardner.  Surely you agree if you’ve ever watched the Yanks for any appreciable period.

First off, the fact that the league does not bunt or hit and run much is no real excuse for the Yanks not doing so when needed/to help scratch out a run. 

As to Gardner working counts, I suppose so, but Gardner sucks imo and it is a great mystery to a number of Yankee fans like myself why the team has had such a fascination with the guy over his career.  A lead off man that last year had an OBP of 322.  A 240 hitter who does not run to any extent at this point and even in his prime would post 1-1.5 months of quality numbers and stink the rest of the year.  Outside of a very good glove, he really offers little at his point imo.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Really?  I remember looking back on those early losses to the O’s just last season and wondering what would’ve happened if we had just managed a few more wins against them and other terrible teams - maybe we would’ve won the division.

For the record the O's beat the Yanks 7 times last year while only beating the Red Sox twice.

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1 minute ago, secretagentman said:

First off, the fact that the league does not bunt or hit and run much is no real excuse for the Yanks not doing so when needed/to help scratch out a run. 

As to Gardner working counts, I suppose so, but Gardner sucks imo and it is a great mystery to a number of Yankee fans like myself why the team has had such a fascination with the guy over his career.  A lead off man that last year had an OBP of 322.  A 240 hitter who does not run to any extent at this point and even in his prime would post 1-1.5 months of quality numbers and stink the rest of the year.  Outside of a very good glove, he really offers little at his point imo.

My point regarding hit-and-runs was made in response to your claim that they haven’t done so in years.  I didn’t address whether or not they do it in certain situations - or how one decides that a certain situation is a time when it is “needed.”

Gardner has racked up a 9 WAR over the last three seasons - and almost always starts the season hot, even if he does fade in the second half each year.  He is also the last true veteran presence on the team (with the exception of CC).  His combination of patience, speed, batting skill, and defensive prowess and versatility is worth far more than you are crediting.

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

For the record the O's beat the Yanks 7 times last year while only beating the Red Sox twice.

...thank you, BBT, for that reminder.  No, thank you.

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

For the record the O's beat the Yanks 7 times last year while only beating the Red Sox twice.

You can always postulate what ifs.  Bottom line is teams go through peaks and valleys.  You catch teams in them as well as go through them yourself.  Right now, with all the injuries, the Yanks are in a valley which cost them a few games so far.  They will be lucky to not get hurt more badly over the coming 2-3 weeks as without Stanton, Hicks, Andujar, Tulo, etc. on offense and with starting rookies at 4 and 5 due to injuries to Severino and Sabathia, you have to figure that all that is going to cost them some games, even to weak opponents.

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7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

...thank you, BBT, for that reminder.  No, thank you.

Sorry but the announcers keep mentioning that during Sox games a lot as in if you can take care of Baltimore and Toronto and the rest of the games split down the middle in the division then that is obviously the given path to winning the division.

Of course that doesn't take into account this year with the Sox suffering from a bad case of World Series Hangover.  Houston was pretty flat the year before.  I don't think there is any quick cure for that hangover.  That's why I thought your Yankees had a good chance of winning the division this season.  But if you keep on insisting on having half the team on the IL I will have to change my pick to Tampa Bay.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Gardner has racked up a 9 WAR over the last three seasons - and almost always starts the season hot, even if he does fade in the second half each year.  He is also the last true veteran presence on the team (with the exception of CC).  His combination of patience, speed, batting skill, and defensive prowess and versatility is worth far more than you are crediting.

We can disagree on that.  His combo of crummy OBP, no power and basically being a waste of food at the top of the lineup for the better part of the year is of no value to anyone imo.  As for his WAR, take the defensive part of the calc out and you get what?  The eye test does count for something and he basically just sucks offensively imo.  At best he should be batting at the bottom of the lineup, not leading off.  The analytics guys make a big deal about getting a player an extra AB at the top of the lineup.  The Yanks are literally giving a lousy OBP player more ABs by leading him off most of the time.  It makes no sense at any level imo.

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15 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But if you keep on insisting on having half the team on the IL I will have to change my pick to Tampa Bay.

I might already have! ☹️

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20 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

We can disagree on that.  His combo of crummy OBP, no power and basically being a waste of food at the top of the lineup for the better part of the year is of no value to anyone imo.  As for his WAR, take the defensive part of the calc out and you get what?  The eye test does count for something and he basically just sucks offensively imo.  At best he should be batting at the bottom of the lineup, not leading off.  The analytics guys make a big deal about getting a player an extra AB at the top of the lineup.  The Yanks are literally giving a lousy OBP player more ABs by leading him off most of the time.  It makes no sense at any level imo.

It's week 1, relax.  No one said he'll be leading off every game he starts this season.  In fact, Boone said Hicks would be leading off if he didn't get injured.  So as soon as he gets back he'll likely be leading off.  DJ leads off vs LHP and pretty soon he'll probably be leading off vs RHP.

Edited by MrBrown
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16 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

We can disagree on that.  His combo of crummy OBP, no power and basically being a waste of food at the top of the lineup for the better part of the year is of no value to anyone imo.  As for his WAR, take the defensive part of the calc out and you get what?  The eye test does count for something and he basically just sucks offensively imo.  At best he should be batting at the bottom of the lineup, not leading off.  The analytics guys make a big deal about getting a player an extra AB at the top of the lineup.  The Yanks are literally giving a lousy OBP player more ABs by leading him off most of the time.  It makes no sense at any level imo.

Wait, “crummy” OBP? Here’s his OBP over the last three years: .351, .350, .322.  League-average OBP (as of last season): .318.  That is a very strange criticism to level against Gardner.

Also, I highly doubt Gardner will remain atop the order all season - surely Boone understands at this point that Gardner is a near-lock to start a season hot.  And he’s there for more than just his OBP skills - he’s the team’s leading SB threat.  His ability to work a pitcher and a count, and get on base, allows the manager some options that other players lacking speed would not afford.

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Another concern I have with the Yankees is a lot of their dominant bullpen arms aren't the same anymore. Green, Chapman and Britton are all much different pitchers now than when they were at their best. Betances is hurt and he was last seen topping out at 90 MPH so who really knows there. The only truly lockdown guy in that pen right now is Ottavino.. and for a team that is aiming to make up for their mediocre starting pitching with a dominant bullpen, that's going to be an issue going forward.

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5 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Another concern I have with the Yankees is a lot of their dominant bullpen arms aren't the same anymore. Green, Chapman and Britton are all much different pitchers now than when they were at their best. Betances is hurt and he was last seen topping out at 90 MPH so who really knows there. The only truly lockdown guy in that pen right now is Ottavino.. and for a team that is aiming to make up for their mediocre starting pitching with a dominant bullpen, that's going to be an issue going forward.

Is their starting pitching really “mediocre”?  I thought they had one of the best rotations in the AL last season - before adding Paxton.

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Lots of hot takes in here.  Too bad the actual numbers seem to contradict most of all them.  

 

They have an entire starting roster full of injuries.  It's cold af still.  It's week one.  Relax

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5 hours ago, secretagentman said:

I think it is more like it makes their task more difficult.  Their ability to scratch out 2-3 of runs against quality pitching when it is on has proven to be limited the past couple of years imo.  Of course, even ace pitchers have off games and make mistakes (see Kluber 2 years ago).  However, their desire to swing for the fences does not usually play well against front line starters who are on their game.  Simply put, Sale or Kluber or Verlander, etc are unlikely to hang too many sliders during a playoff game if they are on.

 

As to playing situation baseball: 

Number of hit and runs...0   They have not run a true hit and run (as opposed to a straight steal the batter swings at) in years to my knowledge.

Number of sluggers that can lay down a bunt...0  Do not think they could if they wanted to.

Number of hitters that will go the opposite way for a single with 2 strikes and men in scoring position:   Voit and Andujar (hurt)...sometimes Torres....sometimes Hicks.

They do take the extra base when they can as Judge and a number of them run the bases pretty well imo.

Hitters that work the count:  Judge and Hicks.  Most of the others are free swingers.

As to teaching an old dog new tricks...not likely.  Stanton and that stupid closed stance of his he refuses to change.  Judge has HRs on his mind all the time (though he takes his walks).  Sanchez, despite being Mendoza line challenged, is always trying to hit one 500 ft.

 

 

 

 

Pretty much what Secretagentman said. And of course you’ll find instances here and there of them doing something other than swinging for the fences. It’s the longest season of all sports. I’m sure over the course of 162 you could even dig up an example of Sanchez hustling.... Well, maybe I’m getting carried away now😀

 

But unless you’re a homer to the point of lacking all objectivity my statement of them being overly reliant on the long ball and how that’s a detriment in October is not the least bit controversial. 

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4 hours ago, absknicks said:

Another concern I have with the Yankees is a lot of their dominant bullpen arms aren't the same anymore. Green, Chapman and Britton are all much different pitchers now than when they were at their best. Betances is hurt and he was last seen topping out at 90 MPH so who really knows there. The only truly lockdown guy in that pen right now is Ottavino.. and for a team that is aiming to make up for their mediocre starting pitching with a dominant bullpen, that's going to be an issue going forward.

 

Bullpen is last on my list of concerns for this team. They’re still the best and deepest pen in the game. The forgotten man Kahnle was key last night.

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13 minutes ago, Cheppy said:

 

Bullpen is last on my list of concerns for this team. They’re still the best and deepest pen in the game. The forgotten man Kahnle was key last night.

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day lol.  Kahnle is lucky he is on the team as he is not very good imo.  He walked 3 in 1 IP the previous outing.  The bullpen is the least of their concerns though.  Right now, their primary problem is how to get some offense with half the starting position players on the DL.

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7 hours ago, Cheppy said:

 

Bullpen is last on my list of concerns for this team. They’re still the best and deepest pen in the game. The forgotten man Kahnle was key last night.

 

Kahnle stinks. 

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17 hours ago, Cheppy said:

 

Pretty much what Secretagentman said. And of course you’ll find instances here and there of them doing something other than swinging for the fences. It’s the longest season of all sports. I’m sure over the course of 162 you could even dig up an example of Sanchez hustling.... Well, maybe I’m getting carried away now😀

 

But unless you’re a homer to the point of lacking all objectivity my statement of them being overly reliant on the long ball and how that’s a detriment in October is not the least bit controversial. 

No one said it was controversial - in fact, I agree that, in the past, that has been a problem.  My question above was why you assume that is a problem that Boone, his coaching staff, and his team cannot address?  All of the points I made about the Yankees and their ability to play situational baseball have yet to be refuted.

Edited by BMcP

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

No one said it was controversial - in fact, I agree that, in the past, that has been a problem.  My question above was why you assume that is a problem that Boone, his coaching staff, and his team cannot address?  All of the points I made about the Yankees and their ability to play situational baseball have yet to be refuted.

If you think Boone and the coaching staff are going to overhaul the hitting approaches of Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Voit etc then I have a bridge I’d like to sell you. They are a team that is overly reliant on the long ball. That is who they are. This is not a knee jerk assertion but common knowledge to any fan worth their salt going into this season. What makes you think they’re going to become something other than that? I have the lineup as constituted last season and this season backing said assertion. What do you have? Pinstripe blinders?

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3 minutes ago, Cheppy said:

If you think Boone and the coaching staff are going to overhaul the hitting approaches of Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Voit etc then I have a bridge I’d like to sell you. They are a team that is overly reliant on the long ball. That is who they are. This is not a knee jerk assertion but common knowledge to any fan worth their salt going into this season. What makes you think they’re going to become something other than that? I have the lineup as constituted last season and this season backing said assertion. What do you have? Pinstripe blinders?

Why do you assume overhauling the hitting approaches of those particular players is necessary for purposes of playing situational ball?  Honest question.

Edited by BMcP

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Those aren’t the only players that are guilty of said approach. And my point from the get is that they have the wrong mix of players on offense. If memory serves I said “it’s a faulty way to construct a lineup”. I very much stand by that. In reality there is going to be no overhaul in their approach yet you seem to think this is a possibility. 

 

Why is that again?

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10 minutes ago, Cheppy said:

Those aren’t the only players that are guilty of said approach. And my point from the get is that they have the wrong mix of players on offense. If memory serves I said “it’s a faulty way to construct a lineup”. I very much stand by that. In reality there is going to be no overhaul in their approach yet you seem to think this is a possibility. 

 

Why is that again?

Incorrect - my opinion is that the players you mentioned do not have to alter their approach for the team as a whole to play situational baseball.  You simply named all of the leading sluggers, and avoided any mention of all of the other Yankees capable of taking a situational approach (although I think you have unfairly lumped Judge in the category of players who don’t play situationally).

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