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Victor Robles 2019 Outlook

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24 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I gotta say I’m a bit disappointed in his high ADP around 100, was hoping he’d be available later on. For instance, Ozzie Albies was going around 150 last year and they have fairly similar minor league profiles and both didn’t well in their MLB auditions, I guess people are starting to figure out these rookies can produce. I’m just not going to reach on him though, I feel like there are some safer options in his range.

He has 5 steals in spring training already and 7 in less than 100 ABs.

 

He's going to steal 50 easy... This post is gonna look downright silly not paying for that at 100.

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6 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

He has 5 steals in spring training already and 7 in less than 100 ABs.

 

He's going to steal 50 easy... This post is gonna look downright silly not paying for that at 100.

Personally, I think he’s a little underrated for going at 100, imo.  He’s my 3rd OF after Acuna and Yelich.  Yes please.

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42 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I gotta say I’m a bit disappointed in his high ADP around 100, was hoping he’d be available later on. For instance, Ozzie Albies was going around 150 last year and they have fairly similar minor league profiles and both didn’t well in their MLB auditions, I guess people are starting to figure out these rookies can produce. I’m just not going to reach on him though, I feel like there are some safer options in his range.

 

Aside from NFBC he's been going off the board around 120.

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1 hour ago, pushaZ said:

He has 5 steals in spring training already and 7 in less than 100 ABs.

 

He's going to steal 50 easy... This post is gonna look downright silly not paying for that at 100.

 

50 steals easy? Need to pump the brakes a bit, who knows how his speed will translate to  the majors, 30 is a better projection. 

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1 hour ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

50 steals easy? Need to pump the brakes a bit, who knows how his speed will translate to  the majors, 30 is a better projection. 

Yeah. No one in the league including turner and mallex is 50 easy. 

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28 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

I want 15 bombs

bags will be there. have no worry about that

 

15 HR, 30 SB, and good average / OBP is will within his ability right now. If he takes a step forward he can push for 20 HR.

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With MAT missing significant time now, I'm going to keep Robles for $12 ($2 pickup plus $10 to keep).

He has to start the year in the majors now and I'm hoping he plays well enough that whenever MAT is back, he's the 4th OF like he should be.

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8 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Any significant injury to Taylor would essentially guarantee full time PT for Robles.

And it did:

Quote

Michael Taylor has been diagnosed with a sprained left knee and hip and will miss "a significant amount of time," per Nationals manager Dave Martinez.

It's not clear at this point how long exactly a "significant amount" is, but obviously the Nats are prepared to be without him for a while. Taylor was injured on Thursday when he landed hard while making a diving catch. He was theoretically competing with Victor Robles for the starting center field job, although Robles was fully expected to win that gig and now has done so by default. Washington is hurting for outfield depth now and could see help outside the organization.

Source: Jesse Dougherty on Twitter                       Mar 15, 2019, 4:09 PM

 

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What is the precedent for rookies with high ADPs?  Do they usually return value?  Not sure where Bryant went.  Did Albies return value last season?

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9 minutes ago, B&F said:

What is the precedent for rookies with high ADPs?  Do they usually return value?  Not sure where Bryant went.  Did Albies return value last season?

 

Yes, Albies was profitable.  But he really came up in 2017.

You're looking for Acuna.  And the answer is yes, yes he did.

Edited by kenag122002

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I'm prepared to take him in the 9th round in my draft tonight. He's one of only a handful of guys I'm really targeting. Nothing is worse getting poached in the same round or the one before, so I'll be proactive and grab him 2 rounds ahead of where he's typically going lol

 

I've taken worse bets earlier that didn't work out (franco in the 7th two years ago oof) and I've made it out ok.

Edited by street sharks
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5 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

50 steals easy? Need to pump the brakes a bit, who knows how his speed will translate to  the majors, 30 is a better projection. 

Yeah, that's just getting caught up in the hype.  Obviously he is capable of doing that, but he's definitely not guaranteed to reach that even though he's likely to be able to put a stranglehold on the CF job now that Taylor is out of the picture for however long.  Now the temptation to play both is gone, and if Robles rolls along early, then it's all his.

Getting back on track though, Robles has had issues with sliding past the bag and getting caught stealing in the past, so I'd be hesitant to say he's a lock for even 40 SBs yet until he shows he's gotten over that.  It seems like it's a product of his great speed and his desire to go all out, which are both great things of course, but hopefully he will learn to keep it under control a bit in the future.

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I recall reading an article that discussed him being near the bottom in the minors for exit velocity. Is he more of a Peraza/Cain type player or a grow into his power kind of prospect?

 

Edited by itaos

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18 minutes ago, B&F said:

What is the precedent for rookies with high ADPs?  Do they usually return value?  Not sure where Bryant went.  Did Albies return value last season?

 

Some guys that were rookies or had a short stint the year before:

Bryant - went around 90ish and delivered

Acuna - I got him well after 140 last year and boy did he deliver 

Albies - ADP around 140 and paid off last year 

Mookie Betts - went around 90-100 after his 50 game stint 

Corey Seagar - had a 27 game stint and  looked great, I believe he was going around the fifth round the next year? Someone’s correct if I’m wrong here

Andrew Benintendi- played 34 games and was going 120 next year 

in 2012, I s--- you not, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were both undrafted in my league, definitely wasn’t a super competitive league but their ADP couldn’t have been very high... also at this time rookies weren’t really coming into the league and tearing it up like they are now 

Some guys that come to mind with very little experience that had high ADPs and were busts:

Desmond Jennings - played 63 games in 2011, had an ADP in the 7th round next year and was a total flop 

Wil Myers - played 80ish games and went sixth round next year and was a bust in year 2

Rafael Devers - played 58 games in the 2017 and was going around 80 last year and he was a bust 

Dansby Swanson - after his first stint he was going around 140, did nothing the next year 

These guys are all pretty flawed though, now that I think of it, Robles seems pretty refined so he should be one of the guys who ends up raking and we should profit.

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14 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Yikes. Roster resource has him batting 8th. 

Don’t worry.  As soon as Eaton gets hurt, he will be batting lead off.

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Robles is going around the same pick as Eloy Jimenez, but he's the much safer choice since he'll be up in the bigs from Day 1 and due to his SBs. BUY!

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

Yikes. Roster resource has him batting 8th. 

It's possible, but it's also not like they are the manager and know exactly what he will write down come Opening Day.

Regardless, this isn't anything we haven't discussed before.  We all knew Robles was going to bat low in the lineup, at least initially.  He's still going to have solid value, if for nothing else besides a solid average and potentially elite SBs.

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Yikes. Roster resource has him batting 8th. 

 

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13 hours ago, LasTortugasFB said:

Robles is going around the same pick as Eloy Jimenez, but he's the much safer choice since he'll be up in the bigs from Day 1 and due to his SBs. BUY!

He may have a few weeks on him, but I'm taking Eloy 10 times out of 10 over Robles.  First couple weeks of the season will be a DISTANT MEMORY when Eloy is giving you AVG and power for your playoff run.

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11 minutes ago, blinkfan77 said:

He may have a few weeks on him, but I'm taking Eloy 10 times out of 10 over Robles.  First couple weeks of the season will be a DISTANT MEMORY when Eloy is giving you AVG and power for your playoff run.

 

They'll both probably be decent, but you're drafting them for different reasons. Eloy won't give steals, but at least Robles will chip in on some HR - however many remains to be seen.

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