Flyman75

Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

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I figured since I started Merrifield's outlook thread, I may as well start his partner-in-crime's thread, too. Both were very effective thieves in 2018, especially late in the season. 

 

Undoubtedly, Mondesi is going to be one of the most hotly debated players this offseason. It's easy to get excited when looking at a half-season worth of stats, but I do believe it's fool's gold. I feel like Mondesi is going to have a solid and productive season, but there isn't a chance he doubles last year's stats (my Mr. Obvious moment). 

 

There are some things to love about Mondesi. He has some power, enough to reach 20-25 to go along with blazing speed. It is a very tantalizing combination, but I believe we have to expect regression. There will also be regression in his BA. I just don't see him hitting .276 again...not with that bb/k rate. The good news is that he's young (23 entering 2019), so hopefully he'll be able to show some progression. 

 

He doesn't walk much, but he did show quite a bit of improvement in his K% in 2018. Super small samples, but his K% in his shorts stints with KC in 2016 and 2017 were 32.2 and 36.7, respectively. This past season, it was 26.5. That's a pretty significant drop and was more in line with his career MiLB numbers, outside of his first taste of AAA ball in 2016. Even with the very low walk rate, I'll be more optimistic about his 2019 if he can maintain, or even improve, on that K%. 

 

The risk with Mondesi is that his ceiling is pretty high, but his floor is Buxton low. But it's guys like this that make fantasy baseball maddeningly enjoyable, lol. He's going to be kept in a lot of keeper leagues, especially those with salaries or round designations. He'll be a 25th rd keeper for me (30 rounds), so for owners like me (and auction owners who got him dirt cheap), he is well worth the risk. 

 

At this moment, I will say I'm looking for something along the lines of a .240-.250 BA, 15-18 HR and 45-50 SB. But I fully understand he could also be back in AAA by June (though I believe he's up for good now). 

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hes gonna be interesting in drafts this year. if ur right he could win you your league....if youre wrong its gonna be a wasted decent round pick

Edited by jfazz23

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4 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

hes gonna be interesting in drafts this year. if ur right he could win you your league....if youre wrong its gonna be a wasted decent round pick

 

There is a wide range of possibilities with Mondesi...more so than the normal fantasy baseball player. Fortunately for me, if he busts, it'll just be wasted 25th rd pick. Lol. 

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Can't let a guy with first round upside fall past the 5th. On a per game basis. He was a top 2-3 player in the entire MLB.  The hit rate of draft day gets spotty quicker than people realize.  I'm not expecting him to keep that pace, but you are not paying him to keep that pace either.

 

Still has a higher floor that people think about. Steals will be there and the Royals will give a plus defensive SS a metric ton of leash thru slumps. In 2013 Escobar had a .247 wOBA and 49 RC+. They played him 158 games with that batting line. Granted Escobar made a lot of contact, and Mondesi might not. So it could be slightly higher.

 

 Just needs to keep his WAR positive thru defense and base-running.

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Adelberto Mondesi 2018 extrapolated over 162 games: .276 BA, 30 homers, 102 runs, 80 RBIs, 62 SB

 

I cannot see a scenario where he is back in AAA. He's such a plus baserunner and fielder that even if he slumps he'll be a viable real life player. The Royals have no business competing next season, so they'll develop their young talent. He's starting every game he's healthy, no doubt about that.

 

In terms of actual production, everyone seems concerned with his floor - I actually disagree. From a real life perspective, yes, maybe there is a chance his K rate is just too high for him to be a good hitter, but the speed + playing time combo will lead to a huge amount of stolen bases. He can slash .220/.290/.350 and if he's stealing 35-40 bags he'll have fantasy value.

 

Will his average dip? Possibly a little, although not as drastically as one might think. His .335 BABIP is high, but he's got blazing speed and hits the ball hard (43.1% hard contact rate, league average is 35.3%). His strikeout rate is high, but not much higher than league average, and we've seen plenty of hitters strike out north of 25% and still hit for a respectable average (Judge, Cespedes, Baez, Story, Acuna, Glyber, etc). This is still a guy who hit ~.285 over 100+ AAA games between 2017-2018. While I don't think he will replicate his .276 BA, I believe people who are worried about a .210-.220 season are a little overly concerned.

 

Will his home runs regress? Eh. A little, maybe. He was on pace for ~30 homers last year, which seems a bit high. His 19.7% HR/FB rate could decline some, although he hits the ball hard enough to suggest he could have some decent power outputs. I'd put him closer to the 18-24 range than the 25-30 range. The power numbers sticking is a possibility, but I wouldn't counting on it. Your not drafting him for his power upside.

 

How about steals? He was on pace for 62, and I don't think this number is going anywhere. He had a 82.4% success rate over 39 attempts, and this Royals team is one that has never been afraid of running. If anything, he might improve on his abysmal 3.8% walk rate and have more opportunities.

 

Runs and RBIs are something I'd be concerned about. The Royals are awful, and he's going to be hitting in the top of the order with a below league average OBP. 180+ combined R+RBI is probably not happening. 

 

All in all, I can see Mondesi anywhere from a .240 BA, 16 HR, 75 R, 55 RBI, 35 SB season to a .280 BA, 32 HR, 95 R, 75 RBI, 65 SB season at best. The first would make approximately the 60th most valuable hitter, so around a round 7 or 8 type player. The second projection would make him... The number one player in fantasy. While I'm not suggesting that he reach that peak next season, he will likely fall within these range of outcomes. If he's available to me in round 5, I will pounce. In a league where speed is becoming ever so scarce, getting a sure source of steals without depleting your other numbers is a rare gift to have. If you miss out on the true 5 cat players at the top of the draft like Trout, Betts, JoRam, Yelich, Lindor, then Mondesi fits the bill of the guy you need to target in your draft.

 

Final note - Steamer 600 projects his 2019 numbers to be .251 BA, 21 HR, 73 R, 71 RBI, 42 SB. These numbers would make him a fringe top 25-30 player.

 

Edited by Saucy
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I hope you guys are right about Mondesi's floor. Anytime I see that great a disparity between K ratio and BB ratio, it causes me concern. It's those ratios, alone, that makes his floor drop significantly in my mind. If that K rate increases and his walks do not, that's not good. If he can't keep up a .335 BABIP (higher than his norm), then there are few walks to get him on base to try to help him work through a slump. If he hits a slump and starts pressing, his plate discipline won't keep putting him on base, and pressing can and will cause his Ks to increase. 

 

That said, I am really excited about owning Mondesi in a keeper (especially at the low keeper value I have him at), but I'm also cautious when determining my expectations for him in 2019. He's still too young with too little success behind him on the MLB level to not have serious concerns about him. But if he can get his walk rate to 6-7% next year and keep his Ks in the 25% range...wow. Significantly improved plate discipline with the hard contact he makes and his speed...he would likely reach beast mode. Maybe Whit can give him some tips on increasing your walk rate from one year to the next, LOL. 

 

And frankly, I would drool over those Steamer600 numbers. Though I believe if he gets 600 ABs and hits .251, he's going to get a lot more than 42 SBs...I'd put him more in the 50-55 range at that point. 

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On 11/2/2018 at 12:44 PM, Flyman75 said:

I figured since I started Merrifield's outlook thread, I may as well start his partner-in-crime's thread, too. Both were very effective thieves in 2018, especially late in the season. 

 

Undoubtedly, Mondesi is going to be one of the most hotly debated players this offseason. It's easy to get excited when looking at a half-season worth of stats, but I do believe it's fool's gold. I feel like Mondesi is going to have a solid and productive season, but there isn't a chance he doubles last year's stats (my Mr. Obvious moment). 

 

There are some things to love about Mondesi. He has some power, enough to reach 20-25 to go along with blazing speed. It is a very tantalizing combination, but I believe we have to expect regression. There will also be regression in his BA. I just don't see him hitting .276 again...not with that bb/k rate. The good news is that he's young (23 entering 2019), so hopefully he'll be able to show some progression. 

 

He doesn't walk much, but he did show quite a bit of improvement in his K% in 2018. Super small samples, but his K% in his shorts stints with KC in 2016 and 2017 were 32.2 and 36.7, respectively. This past season, it was 26.5. That's a pretty significant drop and was more in line with his career MiLB numbers, outside of his first taste of AAA ball in 2016. Even with the very low walk rate, I'll be more optimistic about his 2019 if he can maintain, or even improve, on that K%. 

 

The risk with Mondesi is that his ceiling is pretty high, but his floor is Buxton low. But it's guys like this that make fantasy baseball maddeningly enjoyable, lol. He's going to be kept in a lot of keeper leagues, especially those with salaries or round designations. He'll be a 25th rd keeper for me (30 rounds), so for owners like me (and auction owners who got him dirt cheap), he is well worth the risk. 

 

At this moment, I will say I'm looking for something along the lines of a .240-.250 BA, 15-18 HR and 45-50 SB. But I fully understand he could also be back in AAA by June (though I believe he's up for good now). 

Boy that projection eerily reminds me of someone from 2018 :( 

Edited by Magoo

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On 11/2/2018 at 7:45 PM, Saucy said:

Adelberto Mondesi 2018 extrapolated over 162 games: .276 BA, 30 homers, 102 runs, 80 RBIs, 62 SB

 

I cannot see a scenario where he is back in AAA. He's such a plus baserunner and fielder that even if he slumps he'll be a viable real life player. The Royals have no business competing next season, so they'll develop their young talent. He's starting every game he's healthy, no doubt about that.

 

In terms of actual production, everyone seems concerned with his floor - I actually disagree. From a real life perspective, yes, maybe there is a chance his K rate is just too high for him to be a good hitter, but the speed + playing time combo will lead to a huge amount of stolen bases. He can slash .220/.290/.350 and if he's stealing 35-40 bags he'll have fantasy value.

 

Will his average dip? Possibly a little, although not as drastically as one might think. His .335 BABIP is high, but he's got blazing speed and hits the ball hard (43.1% hard contact rate, league average is 35.3%). His strikeout rate is high, but not much higher than league average, and we've seen plenty of hitters strike out north of 25% and still hit for a respectable average (Judge, Cespedes, Baez, Story, Acuna, Glyber, etc). This is still a guy who hit ~.285 over 100+ AAA games between 2017-2018. While I don't think he will replicate his .276 BA, I believe people who are worried about a .210-.220 season are a little overly concerned.

 

Will his home runs regress? Eh. A little, maybe. He was on pace for ~30 homers last year, which seems a bit high. His 19.7% HR/FB rate could decline some, although he hits the ball hard enough to suggest he could have some decent power outputs. I'd put him closer to the 18-24 range than the 25-30 range. The power numbers sticking is a possibility, but I wouldn't counting on it. Your not drafting him for his power upside.

 

How about steals? He was on pace for 62, and I don't think this number is going anywhere. He had a 82.4% success rate over 39 attempts, and this Royals team is one that has never been afraid of running. If anything, he might improve on his abysmal 3.8% walk rate and have more opportunities.

 

Runs and RBIs are something I'd be concerned about. The Royals are awful, and he's going to be hitting in the top of the order with a below league average OBP. 180+ combined R+RBI is probably not happening. 

 

All in all, I can see Mondesi anywhere from a .240 BA, 16 HR, 75 R, 55 RBI, 35 SB season to a .280 BA, 32 HR, 95 R, 75 RBI, 65 SB season at best. The first would make approximately the 60th most valuable hitter, so around a round 7 or 8 type player. The second projection would make him... The number one player in fantasy. While I'm not suggesting that he reach that peak next season, he will likely fall within these range of outcomes. If he's available to me in round 5, I will pounce. In a league where speed is becoming ever so scarce, getting a sure source of steals without depleting your other numbers is a rare gift to have. If you miss out on the true 5 cat players at the top of the draft like Trout, Betts, JoRam, Yelich, Lindor, then Mondesi fits the bill of the guy you need to target in your draft.

 

Final note - Steamer 600 projects his 2019 numbers to be .251 BA, 21 HR, 73 R, 71 RBI, 42 SB. These numbers would make him a fringe top 25-30 player.

 

Steamer projections make it a virtual lock he never makes it past the 3rd round.

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

Boy that projection eerily reminds me of someone from 2018 :( 

turner? 

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Feels like Villar going into 2017.

Huge bust potential, minimal upside in relation to his likely ADP

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6 hours ago, cs3 said:

Feels like Villar going into 2017.

Huge bust potential, minimal upside in relation to his likely ADP

how is 30 hr and 60sb "minimal upside"??

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11 hours ago, cs3 said:

Feels like Villar going into 2017.

Huge bust potential, minimal upside in relation to his likely ADP

As a hitter, sure. Villar has been a below average defender his whole career. So he loses PT when he slumps. 

 

If villar got to play full seasons, hed rarely fall short of 15/30. There is plenty of examples of plus defensive SS that get full seasons with awful batting lines. Royals are all about defense.

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8 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

how is 30 hr and 60sb "minimal upside"??

 

 

Maybe you forgot to read the end of the sentence that you quoted?

14 hours ago, cs3 said:

 in relation to his likely ADP

 

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

 

 

Maybe you forgot to read the end of the sentence that you quoted?

 

Is he being drafted in the first round?

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He has some serious red flags, with his 7:1 K:BB ratio being first and foremost. That, combined with his extreme propensity for popups, could lead to a terrible average. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he hits below .240 and he will likely struggle to keep his OBP over .300 

He also had a nearly 20% HR/FB ratio which is very unlikely to be repeated over a full season. A lot of people are expecting 25-30 HRs but I think 18-20 is more realistic.

 

He has a ton of helium because of his crazy hot last month, but I feel like a lot of people are going to be duped. He hit  ~60% of his HRs , had 46% of his RBI, and 44% of his steals in his final 26 games which was about a third of his total games. People like to extrapolate his 290 plate appearances into a full season worth of stats, but that one hot month month really skews things in such a small sample.

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4 minutes ago, cs3 said:

He has some serious red flags, with his 7:1 K:BB ratio being first and foremost. That, combined with his extreme propensity for popups, could lead to a terrible average. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he hits below .240 and he will likely struggle to keep his OBP over .300 

He also had a nearly 20% HR/FB ratio which is very unlikely to be repeated over a full season. A lot of people are expecting 25-30 HRs but I think 18-20 is more realistic.

 

He has a ton of helium because of his crazy hot last month, but I feel like a lot of people are going to be duped. He hit  ~60% of his HRs , had 46% of his RBI, and 44% of his steals in his final 26 games which was about a third of his total games. People like to extrapolate his 290 plate appearances into a full season worth of stats, but that one hot month month really skews things in such a small sample.

Using ESPN player rater as a template

 

Tim Anderson was the 51st ranked hitter and 12th ranked SS last year.

 

Anderson with close to 40 SBs would have put him as the 24th best hitter and 7th ranked SS.  43rd player overall.   Anderson with more SB juice seems like a reasonable mean projection for him.  You are losing some value with a 3rd round ADP..but its not a metric ton and people are shooting for 1st round upside. I won't be drafting him in the 3rd..but I also don't think can let him fall too much further in 5X5 Roto.

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Tim Anderson walked ~30% more often than Mondesi and his popup rate was less than half that of Mondesi.

 

Also, not to knock 5x5 roto, but in my three 6x6 H2H leagues (all on Yahoo) Anderson finished the season ranked #169, #172, and #172. If you're saying that's a reasonable mean outcome for Mondesi, then drafting him anywhere in the top 10 rounds would be pretty laughable, and taking him in the top 3 rounds is just lighting money on fire. 

 

Maybe I just value this particular skill set way way less than people who play strictly 5x5 roto, but when I reach for a player with a limited track record I'm doing it becasue the player's underlying power and plate discipline metrics are solid - not becasue he had a 30 game hot streak or becasue I get lured in with flashes of league leading stolen base type speed.

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10 hours ago, cs3 said:

Tim Anderson walked ~30% more often than Mondesi and his popup rate was less than half that of Mondesi.

 

Also, not to knock 5x5 roto, but in my three 6x6 H2H leagues (all on Yahoo) Anderson finished the season ranked #169, #172, and #172. If you're saying that's a reasonable mean outcome for Mondesi, then drafting him anywhere in the top 10 rounds would be pretty laughable, and taking him in the top 3 rounds is just lighting money on fire. 

 

Maybe I just value this particular skill set way way less than people who play strictly 5x5 roto, but when I reach for a player with a limited track record I'm doing it becasue the player's underlying power and plate discipline metrics are solid - not becasue he had a 30 game hot streak or becasue I get lured in with flashes of league leading stolen base type speed.

 

One thing you are assuming is that it was "just" a hot streak as opposed to a learning curve happening.  A player's past stats?  The older those stats are the less accurate they are because they represent a different incarnation of the player.  Players are not stat sheets.  They change, grow (physically, mentally, emotionally), find new approaches, round out into more complex beings.  Especially true with younger players.

 

The fact that he had a great finish in 2018 says that this performance is proven to be one he is capable of.  He DID it.  It isn't some dream illusion.  It is now in the stat books too.  It was real.

 

Could he fall  back?  Sure.  But he has already proven a talent level that wasn't there at the beginning of 2018.  He has therefore shown growth.  Whether you want to buy into that growth or not is another thing.  There will be the endless battle of adjustments with pitchers but long term when a player starts to ramp up his production it is a good sign and should be noticed and not just called a "hot streak" out of hand in my opinion.

 

You obviously play more conservatively.  But not all leagues allow owners to be that conservative.  A full good year of stats means you missed out on your chance to own him in all my leagues.  So part of this is oranges and apples regarding league set-ups too.

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21 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

One thing you are assuming is that it was "just" a hot streak as opposed to a learning curve happening.  A player's past stats?  The older those stats are the less accurate they are because they represent a different incarnation of the player.  Players are not stat sheets.  They change, grow (physically, mentally, emotionally), find new approaches, round out into more complex beings.  Especially true with younger players.

 

The fact that he had a great finish in 2018 says that this performance is proven to be one he is capable of.  He DID it.  It isn't some dream illusion.  It is now in the stat books too.  It was real.

 

Could he fall  back?  Sure.  But he has already proven a talent level that wasn't there at the beginning of 2018.  He has therefore shown growth.  Whether you want to buy into that growth or not is another thing.  There will be the endless battle of adjustments with pitchers but long term when a player starts to ramp up his production it is a good sign and should be noticed and not just called a "hot streak" out of hand in my opinion.

 

You obviously play more conservatively.  But not all leagues allow owners to be that conservative.  A full good year of stats means you missed out on your chance to own him in all my leagues.  So part of this is oranges and apples regarding league set-ups too.

 

tim anderson also drastically increased his walk rate year over year. more than doubled from 2.1 to 5%

 

what if mondesi does that too?

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

One thing you are assuming is that it was "just" a hot streak as opposed to a learning curve happening.  A player's past stats?  The older those stats are the less accurate they are because they represent a different incarnation of the player.  Players are not stat sheets.  They change, grow (physically, mentally, emotionally), find new approaches, round out into more complex beings.  Especially true with younger players.

 

The fact that he had a great finish in 2018 says that this performance is proven to be one he is capable of.  He DID it.  It isn't some dream illusion.  It is now in the stat books too.  It was real.

 

Could he fall  back?  Sure.  But he has already proven a talent level that wasn't there at the beginning of 2018.  He has therefore shown growth.  Whether you want to buy into that growth or not is another thing.  There will be the endless battle of adjustments with pitchers but long term when a player starts to ramp up his production it is a good sign and should be noticed and not just called a "hot streak" out of hand in my opinion.

 

You obviously play more conservatively.  But not all leagues allow owners to be that conservative.  A full good year of stats means you missed out on your chance to own him in all my leagues.  So part of this is oranges and apples regarding league set-ups too.

I agree with you but pitchers will adjust to him to they will exploit his swing and miss tendencies along with his inability to take walks

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As stated in detail in this thread, he's highly combustible (or comboomable). If you miss out on the top SS options, I could see reaching for him. CBS has him in the middle of Didi, Gleyber, Profar, and Segura...all of which are solid but unspectular option next year. If your team feels "safe" and you need to take a gamble, mondesi is a great choice. 

 

I feel like his adp will drop over the winter and into the spring because of the red flag/sss arguments will start to temper his great finish, so his value could be more reasonable come draft day. 

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There probably isn't a more Volatile or player who will be more debated in this year's draft then Mondesi.  After showing what he was capable doing over half a season and particularly the last 4-5 weeks of the season he has shown he is capable of putting up elite production while all the underlying statistics don't necessarily support it or that it will be even sustainable.  That being said He is only 23 years old and on a team with little talent and little to play for and he should be given every single opportunity for the foreseeable future to show what he can do.   Would I expect him to hit .280 with 30+ home runs and 60+ stolen bases as everyone did with Trea Turner following his exciting rookie year, absolutely not.  Do I think he will hit 220. with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases over 150+ games, absolutely not not either.  I think the truth will lie some where in between with a ride range of possible outcomes.   We have seen especially in recent years that players can strike out a ton and still hit for a good to descent average but the lack of walks and plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired and hopefully he makes a point to work on that aspect of his game in the off season.

 

Now will he warrant as high an adp as he has?  maybe not and definitely not in OBP leagues seeing on how he doesn't walk at all,  but the potential is certainly there for him to meet and exceed it and if his speed sticks (he stole over an 80% success rate last year) it should raise his floor quite a bit.  Who knows he could also be a young kid who's finally growing into his body and talent like we've seen many other non exciting players from an offensive perspective blossom into some of the best hitters in the game aka Francisco Lindor who was widely regarded among an elite class of young short stops as the least offensive inclined and has surpassed them all so far at this point in their respective careers.  He could also fizzle like Jonathan Villar did after his break out 2017 who had  a very underwhelming if not unspectacular 2018.  But If he could provide anything close to the average production of what Trea Turner did this past couple of season, which was quite of bust from the expectations people had on Trea following his rookie year but still good enough to put him in the upper echelon of fantasy hitters and SS's then he will be well worth his adp.  

 

Would I be willing to reach for him in redraft leagues, probably not unless there is a lack of speed left on the board and I was in dire need of a SS at that time, but in keeper and dynasty leagues I would probably take the gamble. The upside is just too hard to ignore in a league where speed is dying and if he can prove last year was no fluke then he will be a boarderline if not first round talent in 2020.  I do have him in one of my keeper leagues and before the all star break he wasn't even in consideration for one of my 8 spots and now Im having a hard time justifying not taking the chance on him regardless of all the potential red flags and some more proven options and even some better more highly touted prospects.  One thing I have learned in baseball or life for that matter is nothing is %100 certain and that some players can defy the odds and the statistics for better or worse and if mondesi can for the better, he will be a fantasy monster.

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I'm in a tough spot...as I have an opportunity to re-sign him from 1-5 years at $11.  Dude will either be a killer bargain or i'll have to take a buyout (1/2 total contract length).  So much of me wants to believe and sign him for 5 years, but the cautious side of me is pumping the brakes.  Every year we seems to have these boom or bust types that turn it on for 1/2 a season.  Dominic Brown, Luke Voit, the list goes on.  Imma need to see Madame Cleo and get her hot take.

 

 

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1 hour ago, jonance said:

I'm in a tough spot...as I have an opportunity to re-sign him from 1-5 years at $11.  Dude will either be a killer bargain or i'll have to take a buyout (1/2 total contract length).  So much of me wants to believe and sign him for 5 years, but the cautious side of me is pumping the brakes.  Every year we seems to have these boom or bust types that turn it on for 1/2 a season.  Dominic Brown, Luke Voit, the list goes on.  Imma need to see Madame Cleo and get her hot take.

 

 

 

u take him for 11$

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