Flyman75

Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

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I think KC plays him through thick and thin so that's a plus (although saw conjecture that KC quizzically might bring back Escobar in a bench role).  Mid rounds I'd love to roll the dice, but I don't think he will last past the fourth.  That leaves to little reward for the risk for me. 

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I'm not buying.  K/BB rate is freaking atrocious.  ADP is insane.  Projections are based on a half season.  This all spells huge mistake to me.  I mean, in the NFBC ADP comp (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) he's going around Correa and Bogaerts.  I guess SS is looking shallow to most?

Edited by En Votto Veritas
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6 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I'm not buying.  K/BB rate is freaking atrocious.  ADP is insane.  Projections are based on a half season.  This all spells huge mistake to me.  I mean, in the NFBC ADP comp (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) he's going around Correa and Bogaerts.  I guess SS is looking shallow to most?

 

No, steals are looking as rare as hens' teeth to most.  And if he did what he did for half a season there is no reason he can't do it again because, you know, he already proved he could do it.

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2 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I'm not buying.  K/BB rate is freaking atrocious.  ADP is insane.  Projections are based on a half season.  This all spells huge mistake to me.  I mean, in the NFBC ADP comp (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) he's going around Correa and Bogaerts.  I guess SS is looking shallow to most?

He’s going before those two almost every time.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

No, steals are looking as rare as hens' teeth to most.  And if he did what he did for half a season there is no reason he can't do it again because, you know, he already proved he could do it.

Kind of circular logic there. Every year guys come up and kill it over half a season and then face plant the next year The guys got a low low floor.

 

Still worth the risk. 

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31 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Kind of circular logic there. Every year guys come up and kill it over half a season and then face plant the next year The guys got a low low floor.

 

Still worth the risk. 

 

I'm glad you think he is worth the risk.  But circular logic?  Nope, just the facts.  He did it period.  He proved he can put up stats like this.  Unless he is injured or some coach screws up his approach there is no reason to just assume he can't duplicate what he has already proven he can do. 

 

I remember here that the same argument that a player can not do what he did again over half a season was used against JD Martinez his first year in Detroit.  Lots of people on his thread thought he was a flash in the pan and would "regress" the following year.  Why?  I have no idea why.  Yet many said it here based on his past history in Houston and cited this and that sabermetric to prove he wasn't for real while ignoring that he had changed his whole approach. 

 

Players can grow and progress and change their approach and in Mondesi's case, leave his teenage years behind and become a man besides.  They aren't fossilized into stats from over a year ago.  Mondesi started to "click" because he took a step forward for some or several reasons.  Could he go backward?  Sure.  But he was trending big time forward over his last half year of play so the chances are high he won't somehow suddenly crash and burn.

 

And again steals are becoming harder and harder to come by.  You almost need at least one of the small remaining handful of "stealmasters" to compete in that category these days.  One of those guys can boost that category up any number of points in roto and give you basically a lock -- +1 headstart at least -- into any week of head-to-head where your opponent doesn't own someone like Trea Turner or Whit Merrifield to counter you with.  Supply and demand makes Mondesi far more valuable than if he was a 10 steals a year guy with 20+ homers. 

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5 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

I'm glad you think he is worth the risk.  But circular logic?  Nope, just the facts.  He did it period.  He proved he can put up stats like this.  Unless he is injured or some coach screws up his approach there is no reason to just assume he can't duplicate what he has already proven he can do. 

 

I remember here that the same argument that a player can not do what he did again over half a season was used against JD Martinez his first year in Detroit.  Lots of people on his thread thought he was a flash in the pan and would "regress" the following year.  Why?  I have no idea why.  Yet many said it here based on his past history in Houston and cited this and that sabermetric to prove he wasn't for real while ignoring that he had changed his whole approach. 

 

Players can grow and progress and change their approach and in Mondesi's case, leave his teenage years behind and become a man besides.  They aren't fossilized into stats from over a year ago.  Mondesi started to "click" because he took a step forward for some or several reasons.  Could he go backward?  Sure.  But he was trending big time forward over his last half year of play so the chances are high he won't somehow suddenly crash and burn.

 

And again steals are becoming harder and harder to come by.  You almost need at least one of the small remaining handful of "stealmasters" to compete in that category these days.  One of those guys can boost that category up any number of points in roto and give you basically a lock -- +1 headstart at least -- into any week of head-to-head where your opponent doesn't own someone like Trea Turner or Whit Merrifield to counter you with.  Supply and demand makes Mondesi far more valuable than if he was a 10 steals a year guy with 20+ homers. 

 

He has a 40 steal projection with an under 300 OBP? Steamer is on the same stuff as Irvin last night.

 

jD Martinez is an awful comp. JD’s metrics always said he could crush the ball and just needed to stay healthy over a full season. 

 

SBO is far less predictive than ABs.

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7 hours ago, Magoo said:

 

He has a 40 steal projection with an under 300 OBP? Steamer is on the same stuff as Irvin last night.

 

Well, he has 46 career steals in 463 career ABs with a career .273 OBP, and last season he stole 32 in 275 ABs with a .306 OBP. 

 

I'm not saying he will or won't steal 40+ with a sub-.300 OBP, but his career thus far seems to indicate it's certainly possible. That said, he is a young kid who will be 23 to start the 2019 season, and I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that maybe his OBP and walk rate increase some next year. We tend to expect young prospects to improve. Whether Mondesi does or not remains to be seen. I will happily take the risk in my keeper league. 

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20 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Well, he has 46 career steals in 463 career ABs with a career .273 OBP, and last season he stole 32 in 275 ABs with a .306 OBP. 

 

I'm not saying he will or won't steal 40+ with a sub-.300 OBP, but his career thus far seems to indicate it's certainly possible. That said, he is a young kid who will be 23 to start the 2019 season, and I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that maybe his OBP and walk rate increase some next year. We tend to expect young prospects to improve. Whether Mondesi does or not remains to be seen. I will happily take the risk in my keeper league. 

That’s fair but he hasn’t really given an indication he will improved OBP.

 

Maybe bc Buxton lowered our expectations were okay with the low floor. 

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On 11/29/2018 at 10:10 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

He did it period.  He proved he can put up stats like this.  Unless he is injured or some coach screws up his approach there is no reason to just assume he can't duplicate what he has already proven he can do. 

Ok, using the same kind of logic you used, how about this...

 

He's only proven he can be good in the bigs for 300 PA's at a time. The other half of a season he projects to be below average.

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Ok, using the same kind of logic you used, how about this...

 

He's only proven he can be good in the bigs for 300 PA's at a time. The other half of a season he projects to be below average.

 

No, he trended upwards to his current level now.  It's called growth.

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Mondesi made his professional stateside debut as a 16 yr old in the Pioneer league. He was hailed as a high upside prospect and was always promoted aggressively, hence was always extremely young for his level. As a prospect he was always playing catch up. He finally caught up to the level in 2017. As a 21 year old in AAA, he OPSed .879 and hit 13 Hrs and stole 21 bases in 85 games. That caught my eye and I grabbed him in a couple dynasty startups last year. 

 

As a highly touted prospect that played most of his minor league career extremely young for his age, he most likely suffered from prospect fatigue. Unlike Villar, his defense will guarantee him 600+ at bats. He accomplished a top 5  2nd half with an OBP of .306. If his OBP drops to say .290, he'll still put up top 50 numbers. What if he shows growth and makes slightly better contact and takes a few more walks? He's 23 years old! Is there not significant room for growth. I would suggest that all the hype may well be understated.

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41 minutes ago, pan55 said:

He finally caught up to the level in 2017. As a 21 year old in AAA, he OPSed .879 and hit 13 Hrs and stole 21 bases in 85 games. That caught my eye and I grabbed him in a couple dynasty startups last year. 

 

 

Always great to finally catch up to your level in AAA at 21 the year AFTER you win a World Series ring

 

It's just funny to see someone break out as a prospect years after they win the World Series. It's not something we'll see very often.

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2 hours ago, pan55 said:

What if he shows growth and makes slightly better contact and takes a few more walks?

And what if he shows regression? Everyone seems to think that young players automatically improve every year, but that's rarely the case.

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12 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

No, he trended upwards to his current level now.  It's called growth.

Actually it's called small sample size.

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My point is many are projecting regression and that is certainly realistic. He was a top 5 player if his small sample size is extrapolated over a full season. That is certainly possible for 2019 given his BAbip was .335 which is not out of line given his speed. His contact via fangraphs was 17.8 soft, 39.1 medium, and 43.1 hard. 

 

Most are projecting regression, some are projecting sustained 2018 numbers. Suppose, just suppose, he in fact demonstrates growth over his 2018 short sample size. I think his floor is a top 50-60 player. His ceiling is a top 3-4 player. I'm not predicting that, but not ruling it out.

 

His risk is minimized by his defense.

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58 minutes ago, pan55 said:

My point is many are projecting regression and that is certainly realistic. He was a top 5 player if his small sample size is extrapolated over a full season. That is certainly possible for 2019 given his BAbip was .335 which is not out of line given his speed. His contact via fangraphs was 17.8 soft, 39.1 medium, and 43.1 hard. 

 

Most are projecting regression, some are projecting sustained 2018 numbers. Suppose, just suppose, he in fact demonstrates growth over his 2018 short sample size. I think his floor is a top 50-60 player. His ceiling is a top 3-4 player. I'm not predicting that, but not ruling it out.

 

His risk is minimized by his defense.

I don't think "risk" means what you think it means vis a vis value.  A .230 avg over 600 ABs would certainly maximize some of his risk.

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25 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I don't think "risk" means what you think it means vis a vis value.  A .230 avg over 600 ABs would certainly maximize some of his risk.

Defense minimizes PT risk and being proficient at the most scarce category give him some perfomance floor that others dont have. 

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3 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Defense minimizes PT risk and being proficient at the most scarce category give him some perfomance floor that others dont have. 

No *&*#.  I was referring to the risk BECAUSE of the PT re: average.

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On 12/1/2018 at 8:47 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

No, he trended upwards to his current level now.  It's called growth.

I don't believe there's any statistical basis to second half trends being predictive of anything, but I'm happy to see any links you have showing otherwise. 

 

I've looked into this and argued about it a couple years ago on these boards and didn't find any connection, but I used a small sample size and it's possible there's some metric that if met does show itself to be predictive of the next season. 

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This is going to be such a format dependent thread.  Roto and 5x5 guys will take the risk, and rightly so.  H2H and obp leagues can probably let adp hype go by.  

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I think it is a good rule to stay away from these guys with shoddy plate discipline, yeah you’ll miss out on Baez’s big 2018 but in the long run I think you’re better off.

 

If the price is right sure take a stab,  but that ain’t gonna happen after that insane August-September run he had unless maybe you are in an OBP league with really disciplined league mates.

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Also worth nothing the insane rate of steals the Royals speedsters had over the last two months vs. the rest of the year (i.e. Merrifield ).

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24 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Also worth nothing the insane rate of steals the Royals speedsters had over the last two months vs. the rest of the year (i.e. Merrifield ).

 

Worth noting, but I don't see why we wouldn't see a repeat  The team let those guys run because there was no downside, because the team wasn't going anywhere.  The team isn't going anywhere in 2019, either.  Maybe early in the season a few stop signs go up, but once it's clear that the team isn't contending, why wouldn't they just let them run?

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