Flyman75

Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

With his OBP issues he’ll be lucky to not disappoint in runs relative to expectations. Especially on this team.

Tim Anderson has been good for 70 runs a year. Don't see why Mondesi would be much worse.

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On 1/15/2019 at 9:16 AM, TribeFoo said:

Razzball has him #20 overall. The overdrafts on this guy are going to be legendary.

Yeah, I couldn't believe this projection. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong but there's too much of a chance he has a 2018 Buxton season to draft this high.

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11 hours ago, I was wrong on Kris Benson said:

Yeah, I couldn't believe this projection. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong but there's too much of a chance he has a 2018 Buxton season to draft this high.

Buxton got hurt then couldn't even handle AAA pitching in Re-hab. So got held back for an extra year of control.

 

Don't see that as a likely outcome for Mondesi. They would need to hold him back a full 3 months to gain a year of control. Good gloved SS just don't get benched easy on re-building teams. Even when they are not hitting. Less can play SS than CF. Just the nature of the game.

Edited by Slatykamora

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11 hours ago, I was wrong on Kris Benson said:

Yeah, I couldn't believe this projection. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong but there's too much of a chance he has a 2018 Buxton season to draft this high.

Deciding a player’s ranking based on a 1 season sample of a different player doesn’t seem like the most sound reasoning. There’s no doubt drafting Mondesi within the top 60 picks is a high risk, high reward play, just like drafting Buxton was last year. It didn’t work out for Buxton but anyone drafting him should’ve been aware that busting was within the possible outcomes. People were saying the same thing about drafting Trevor Story and Javy Baez last year. If you want to be risk averse in your draft then Mondesi probably isn’t your guy.

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21 hours ago, meh2 said:

Deciding a player’s ranking based on a 1 season sample of a different player doesn’t seem like the most sound reasoning. There’s no doubt drafting Mondesi within the top 60 picks is a high risk, high reward play, just like drafting Buxton was last year. It didn’t work out for Buxton but anyone drafting him should’ve been aware that busting was within the possible outcomes. People were saying the same thing about drafting Trevor Story and Javy Baez last year. If you want to be risk averse in your draft then Mondesi probably isn’t your guy.

You made well thought out points and yes, Mondesi isn't my kinda draft pick considering where he is going. Too much risk for my liking considering where he's going. I hear your point, though.

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On 1/28/2019 at 12:01 PM, swfcdan said:

6?? Utterly absurd. For FG to make such a bizzaro rank of all places, shame on them.

 

Around 50 and he's worth the gamble.

 

razzball has him at 20 overall.  hes going in the 30s in NFBC drafts...

 

its not ridiculous at all.

 

risky yes

ridiculous no

 

@StevieStats care to clarify why you keep "laughing" ??

Edited by jfazz23
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I just read through this thread and what a wild ride. His ADP and rankings are officially off the rails, just when you think Razzball at 20 overall was crazy, Fangraphs and @jfazz23 come running in screaming hold my beer! 

 

He's a very intriguing power/speed player at SS, so naturally there's a drool factor, but to me, this is a classic example of people over-valuing steals.

 

In the desperate environment we are in for steals it's inevitable that some owners are going to overdraft high steal potential players in attempt to win the steal category, meanwhile, you are typically short changing yourself elsewhere on your roster, thinking you are getting a leg up in a problem category. It's somewhat similar to overdrafting a guy like Buster Posey or Gary Sanchez in past years, except that being a positional scarcity.

 

Stolen bases is a category scarcity. Your entire fantasy league is going to deal with it... so really to me, Mondesi and his ADP/value are being driven by that scarcity -- not necessarily his skills alone. I never like when that's the case, it causes owners to take unnecessary risk when they normally wouldn't, chasing that scarcity thinking it's an advantage to them.

 

Does anyone really look at this hitter profile and really think that's a bat deserving of #6 overall, top 20, or even 3rd round value? No way, not in my eyes -- you're getting sucked in by the wheels and overlooking obvious and dramatic flaws because of it, and meanwhile you are going to burn a very early pick with tons of available talent, upside, and within a much less risky profile.

 

I think overdrafting someone due to a category scarcity is poor strategy. I'll let someone else take that risk and find steals elsewhere as we do every year. 

 

 

 

PS: @jfazz23 I was reading through and reacting to a bunch of post then started typing this up when you replied.

 

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5th round is highest id probably take the plunge, i wouldnt take him in the top 50, too risky after that its risk preference

 

disclaimer: im keeping him for $1 so ADP for him doesnt mean ish to me i just like seeing what people are projecting my beloved keeper for numbers wise

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Picks like Mondesi are far too dangerous this early.  Everyone gambles with picks at some point in the draft, but logically speaking, gambling early creates excess risk with less comparative reward. 

 

Example:

Team 1: Mondesi at #44 (gamble) and Quintana at #180 (safe)

vs

Team 2: Bogaerts at #48 (safe) and Reyes at #181 (gamble)

 

If Mondesi comes through you don't gain *all* that much vs. Bogaerts, while if he fails you lose an insane amount of value.  If Reyes comes through you don't gain *all* that much vs. Quintana, but if he fails you don't lose that much value.  Both Mondesi and Reyes are gambles, but their comparative risk is enormously different, while their comparative reward is very similar.

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18 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I just read through this thread and what a wild ride. His ADP and rankings are officially off the rails, just when you think Razzball at 20 overall was crazy, Fangraphs and @jfazz23 come running in screaming hold my beer! 

 

He's a very intriguing power/speed player at SS, so naturally there's a drool factor, but to me, this is a classic example of people over-valuing steals.

 

In the desperate environment we are in for steals it's inevitable that some owners are going to overdraft high steal potential players in attempt to win the steal category, meanwhile, you are typically short changing yourself elsewhere on your roster, thinking you are getting a leg up in a problem category. It's somewhat similar to overdrafting a guy like Buster Posey or Gary Sanchez in past years, except that being a positional scarcity.

 

Stolen bases is a category scarcity. Your entire fantasy league is going to deal with it... so really to me, Mondesi and his ADP/value are being driven by that scarcity -- not necessarily his skills alone. I never like when that's the case, it causes owners to take unnecessary risk when they normally wouldn't, chasing that scarcity thinking it's an advantage to them.

 

Does anyone really look at this hitter profile and really think that's a bat deserving of #6 overall, top 20, or even 3rd round value? No way, not in my eyes -- you're getting sucked in by the wheels and overlooking obvious and dramatic flaws because of it, and meanwhile you are going to burn a very early pick with tons of available talent, upside, and within a much less risky profile.

 

I think overdrafting someone due to a category scarcity is poor strategy. I'll let someone else take that risk and find steals elsewhere as we do every year. 

 

 

 

PS: @jfazz23 I was reading through and reacting to a bunch of post then started typing this up when you replied.

 

 

i  never said hold my beer....i said taking him in the 30s is not ridiculous

 

this whole post is very fake news

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[Let's take a step back and focus on the player and not calling out other members here, guys.]

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26 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i  never said hold my beer....i said taking him in the 30s is not ridiculous

 

this whole post is very fake news

I think the hold my beer comment went over your head a little... I'm not claiming you said those words, it's a saying that when someone else does something (and typucally something significant) hold my beer means you are going to top it... meaning, Razzball says 20 overall and people are surprised, then Fangraphs says hold my beer and puts him 6th overall... and you back them up by saying it's not ridiculous in response to someone saying FG putting him 6 is ridiculous  -- by which I think most would agree Mondesi at #6 is just off the reservation.

Edited by StevieStats

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On 11/17/2018 at 5:55 PM, cs3 said:

Tim Anderson walked ~30% more often than Mondesi and his popup rate was less than half that of Mondesi.

 

Also, not to knock 5x5 roto, but in my three 6x6 H2H leagues (all on Yahoo) Anderson finished the season ranked #169, #172, and #172. If you're saying that's a reasonable mean outcome for Mondesi, then drafting him anywhere in the top 10 rounds would be pretty laughable, and taking him in the top 3 rounds is just lighting money on fire. 

 

Maybe I just value this particular skill set way way less than people who play strictly 5x5 roto, but when I reach for a player with a limited track record I'm doing it becasue the player's underlying power and plate discipline metrics are solid - not becasue he had a 30 game hot streak or becasue I get lured in with flashes of league leading stolen base type speed.

30% more often? LOL. 80 cents is twice as much 40 cents..but its still only 80 cents. 

 

Super aggressive solid defensive SS on a re-building team with power/speed.

 

Also you are playing 6X6. Most of the people are here are talking 5X5 where SB's worth a lot more. This doesn't really help 5x5 people at all saying you wont draft him in the first 10 rounds of a 6X6 with i'm guessing either OBP or OPS.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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7 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Also you are playing 6X6. Most of the people are here are talking 5X5 where SB's worth a lot more. This doesn't really help 5x5 people at all saying you wont draft him in the first 10 rounds of a 6X6 with i'm guessing either OBP or OPS.

Yes, which is why I specifically pointed that out in my post.

And I'm going to guess that there are a lot of people on this site who play in leagues other than just the archaic 5x5 roto format.

Because that's really the only format where you can make a legitimate case for drafting him inside the top 50 picks.

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He will put up Tim Anderson numbers with more steals this year. That's still pretty good but not in the 3-4 round.

Edited by Ry34No
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14 hours ago, Ry34No said:

He will put up Tim Anderson numbers with more steals this year. That's still pretty good but not in the 3-4 round.

so if he hits 250 with 20 homers and 50 steals where do you think that puts him?

 

assuming 5x5 league

Edited by jfazz23

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18 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

so if he hits 250 with 20 homers and 50 steals where do you think that puts him?

 

assuming 5x5 league

 

Wow...that’s a big “if”. I own the guy in a keeper and love his potential, but I doubt he reaches any of those three marks. If he does, I have to think that returns a second round value. Right? 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Wow...that’s a big “if”. I own the guy in a keeper and love his potential, but I doubt he reaches any of those three marks. If he does, I have to think that returns a second round value. Right? 

 

i know its a big if but he said tim anderson with more steals.  so i gave him tim anderson with more steals.  

 

ya, id imagine those numbers put him top 15?

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4 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i know its a big if but he said tim anderson with more steals.  so i gave him tim anderson with more steals.  

 

ya, id imagine those numbers put him top 15?

 

Ah lol...makes sense. 

 

Close, if not there. 

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

so if he hits 250 with 20 homers and 50 steals where do you think that puts him?

 

assuming 5x5 league

50 steals is hard to project on any player, especially given nobody stole over 45 last year. I would say he's worth taking around ADP 35-40 if he had Andersons stat line with 50 steals. So that would put him in the 4th round range on paper. But the risk of him not being able to get on base and end up hitting like his 16/17 major league stints can show how low his floor is for a 3-4 round pick. I chalk that up to being young and believe he turned a corner last year but I wouldn't reach too high for him.

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i know its a big if but he said tim anderson with more steals.  so i gave him tim anderson with more steals.  

 

ya, id imagine those numbers put him top 15?

A 50 steal projection is pushing it given how much things have to go right.

 

People are placing way too much importance on the assumed never ending green light for the Royals.

 

35 steals is the right number to project imo and that doesn’t consider the floor.

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