Flyman75

Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

A 50 steal projection is pushing it given how much things have to go right.

 

People are placing way too much importance on the assumed never ending green light for the Royals.

 

35 steals is the right number to project imo and that doesn’t consider the floor.

He had 32 steals in 75 games last year.  The Royals have no reason to not let him run, it's not like getting thrown out stealing is going to kill their playoff chances.  If you double his output from last year that's 64 SB.  But projecting anything less than 40 to 45 doesn't make sense. A realistic projection is 50 to 55 with a higher celling than that.

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11 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

He had 32 steals in 75 games last year.  The Royals have no reason to not let him run, it's not like getting thrown out stealing is going to kill their playoff chances.  If you double his output from last year that's 64 SB.  But projecting anything less than 40 to 45 doesn't make sense. A realistic projection is 50 to 55 with a higher celling than that.

As a longtime Royals fan and someone that’s followed this kid and watched a lot of his games last year, I agree. He’s going to have the green light and he’s going to have lots of chances. The one concern I do have and don’t see it getting discussed anywhere is his ability to stay healthy. He’s missed a lot of time in the minors with back and shoulder injuries. He plays (especially on the basepaths) with a blend of uber aggressiveness and confidence that reminds me of a young Jose Reyes. That playing style could make him a little more susceptible to getting hurt. I’m definitely going to own some shares, but he’s a pretty risky pick in the early rounds and I’m not going to get too crazy.

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50 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

He had 32 steals in 75 games last year.  The Royals have no reason to not let him run, it's not like getting thrown out stealing is going to kill their playoff chances.  If you double his output from last year that's 64 SB.  But projecting anything less than 40 to 45 doesn't make sense. A realistic projection is 50 to 55 with a higher celling than that.

#extrapolationbias

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48 minutes ago, Magoo said:

#extrapolationbias

Extrapolationbias? Lol.  What else are predictions?  That's literally what they are unless your a psychic or went to the future and bought a sports almanac.  Projections are extrapolation of previous statistics.  You can weight the previous years statistics differently, but it's still extrapolation of the stats.  He put up 9 SB in 147 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2016, in 2017 he had 5 in 60 plate appearances,  last year 32 in 297 PA.  So in roughly 10 percent of his plate appearances he gets a stolen base.  Give him 550 to 600 plate appearances and he's at 55 to 60 SB.

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razzball:  holy cow!

 

20. Adalberto Mondesi – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Raul Mondesi, your son is a Fantasy God, but what did you do to make him change his name?”  Something I want to clarify that I think gets lost on people.  Fantasy baseball is not real baseball.  You are not reading The Athletic.  If I’m starting a major league franchise and I’m calling the County Registrar’s Office for a player’s WAR record, I’m going Andrew Benintendi, Jose Altuve, Jacob deGrom and others.  I understand it’s weird to see Mondesi over someone like Altuve, but let’s just go off of last season.  In 599 plate appearances, Altuve hit 13 homers; Mondesi hit 14 in 291 PAs.  Altuve had 17 SBs; Mondesi had 32.  If you’re in a OBP league, things change.  If you’re in a league that counts how good someone is in real baseball vs. fantasy baseball, then, by all means, take Altuve.  Take me out of the equation, Steamer projects Altuve for 17/18/.302; Mondesi’s projections are 19/38/.252.  Sure, fifty points on average makes a difference, but not enough.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and tell me, “Altuve hits .350 and goes 20/20 while Mondesi goes 20/40/.252,” I’d say, “That’s the info you bring from the future?  What is wrong with you?  Tell me which stocks to invest in!  Who do I bet on to win money?  I have a mortgage to pay now!  I need moneymaking schemes!”  After that tirade, I’d say I still want Mondesi.  I only need to get around .272 on average to be competitive in fantasy leagues.  Altuve’s average is nice and all, but Mondesi’s 40 SBs, I’m taking it to the bank if it’s coming with 20 homers.  You know what I’m not taking to the bank?  Any money because of your terrible future stock advice!  I’m house poor!  I need money!  2019 Projections:  81/20/90/.249/40 in 594 ABs

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13 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Extrapolationbias? Lol.  What else are predictions?  That's literally what they are unless your a psychic or went to the future and bought a sports almanac.  Projections are extrapolation of previous statistics.  You can weight the previous years statistics differently, but it's still extrapolation of the stats.  He put up 9 SB in 147 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2016, in 2017 he had 5 in 60 plate appearances,  last year 32 in 297 PA.  So in roughly 10 percent of his plate appearances he gets a stolen base.  Give him 550 to 600 plate appearances and he's at 55 to 60 SB.

LOL

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28 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Extrapolationbias? Lol.  What else are predictions?  That's literally what they are unless your a psychic or went to the future and bought a sports almanac.  Projections are extrapolation of previous statistics.  You can weight the previous years statistics differently, but it's still extrapolation of the stats.  He put up 9 SB in 147 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2016, in 2017 he had 5 in 60 plate appearances,  last year 32 in 297 PA.  So in roughly 10 percent of his plate appearances he gets a stolen base.  Give him 550 to 600 plate appearances and he's at 55 to 60 SB.

 

There are two questions that have to be answered that cannot be answered yet. One, will KC continue to let Mondesi (and Merrifield and Hamilton) loose on the basepaths like they did in August and September, or will they go back to their more normal rate of SBAs? Two, how often will Mondesi reach base? Outside of Aug-Sept of last year, Mondesi in his career in KC has stolen a base 33 percent of the time of he has reached base (obviously not counting HRs). If he goes back to that rate this season, he won't be getting 55-60 bases unless he gets his BA back to ~.270 again. 

 

Now, on the positive side, his walk rate increased in the final two months. He had 2 walks in 95 PAs prior to August...then he had 9 walks in 196 PAs. Now he didn't suddenly become the most patient hitter in baseball, but that's improvement. Let's say he gets 600 PAs in 2019 and maintains that Aug-Sept walk rate...he'd be looking at roughly 28 BBs. If he hits .240 (seems reasonable), that gives him 137 hits. Total those up, and he's on base 165 times. For the sake of argument, let's assume 15 of those are HR (probably the low end), giving him 150 times actually standing on a base. If he steals bases at a 33 percent clip, that comes to 50 SBs. 

 

If he continues to run like he did in Aug-Sept, he'll definitely hit the 60 mark, but I don't see that happening. Maybe it does...I hope it does, LOL. 

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Is this thread still happening?  I vote we all put money (or signature bets) on this dude right now and close the thread.

 

Dude is being drafted like he's the next Trea Turner and gonna go .275 - 20 - 75 - 90 - 40, so let's get real; my bets in parenthesis:

.275 AVG  (Under, maybe .260)

40 SBs  (I've got under, but it's close)

20 HRs  (Under, low teens.)

75 RBIs  (Under, nobody on base in front.)

90 Runs  (Under, nobody behind him.)

.300 OBP  (Under, this is such a gross stat for him.)

 

I feel like he's gonna go .250/.290 - 12 - 50 - 70 - 30.  But hell, I don't know and I've had a lot of wine.  Either way, he's a polarizing guy and I love him because it means someone will draft him insanely early which means I get someone 1 pick closer than I would before.  Looking at you Rendon.  Looking at you.

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2 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

Extrapolationbias? Lol.  What else are predictions?  That's literally what they are unless your a psychic or went to the future and bought a sports almanac.  Projections are extrapolation of previous statistics.  You can weight the previous years statistics differently, but it's still extrapolation of the stats.  He put up 9 SB in 147 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 2016, in 2017 he had 5 in 60 plate appearances,  last year 32 in 297 PA.  So in roughly 10 percent of his plate appearances he gets a stolen base.  Give him 550 to 600 plate appearances and he's at 55 to 60 SB.

Yea just like Trea Turner kept his 2017 pace after he had 46 in 98 games and stole 60-70 like everyone said he would. Oh wait...

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37 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Is this thread still happening?  I vote we all put money (or signature bets) on this dude right now and close the thread.

 

Dude is being drafted like he's the next Trea Turner and gonna go .275 - 20 - 75 - 90 - 40, so let's get real; my bets in parenthesis:

.275 AVG  (Under, maybe .260)

40 SBs  (I've got under, but it's close)

20 HRs  (Under, low teens.)

75 RBIs  (Under, nobody on base in front.)

90 Runs  (Under, nobody behind him.)

.300 OBP  (Under, this is such a gross stat for him.)

 

I feel like he's gonna go .250/.290 - 12 - 50 - 70 - 30.  But hell, I don't know and I've had a lot of wine.  Either way, he's a polarizing guy and I love him because it means someone will draft him insanely early which means I get someone 1 pick closer than I would before.  Looking at you Rendon.  Looking at you.

 

Why wouldn't the thread still be happening? Lol :). I'll chalk it up to the vino. Haha!

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37 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Is this thread still happening?  I vote we all put money (or signature bets) on this dude right now and close the thread.

 

Dude is being drafted like he's the next Trea Turner and gonna go .275 - 20 - 75 - 90 - 40, so let's get real; my bets in parenthesis:

.275 AVG  (Under, maybe .260)

40 SBs  (I've got under, but it's close)

20 HRs  (Under, low teens.)

75 RBIs  (Under, nobody on base in front.)

90 Runs  (Under, nobody behind him.)

.300 OBP  (Under, this is such a gross stat for him.)

 

I feel like he's gonna go .250/.290 - 12 - 50 - 70 - 30.  But hell, I don't know and I've had a lot of wine.  Either way, he's a polarizing guy and I love him because it means someone will draft him insanely early which means I get someone 1 pick closer than I would before.  Looking at you Rendon.  Looking at you.

 

Why wouldn't the thread still be happening? Lol :). I'll chalk it up to the vino. Haha!

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

There are two questions that have to be answered that cannot be answered yet. One, will KC continue to let Mondesi (and Merrifield and Hamilton) loose on the basepaths like they did in August and September, or will they go back to their more normal rate of SBAs? Two, how often will Mondesi reach base? Outside of Aug-Sept of last year, Mondesi in his career in KC has stolen a base 33 percent of the time of he has reached base (obviously not counting HRs). If he goes back to that rate this season, he won't be getting 55-60 bases unless he gets his BA back to ~.270 again. 

 

Now, on the positive side, his walk rate increased in the final two months. He had 2 walks in 95 PAs prior to August...then he had 9 walks in 196 PAs. Now he didn't suddenly become the most patient hitter in baseball, but that's improvement. Let's say he gets 600 PAs in 2019 and maintains that Aug-Sept walk rate...he'd be looking at roughly 28 BBs. If he hits .240 (seems reasonable), that gives him 137 hits. Total those up, and he's on base 165 times. For the sake of argument, let's assume 15 of those are HR (probably the low end), giving him 150 times actually standing on a base. If he steals bases at a 33 percent clip, that comes to 50 SBs. 

 

If he continues to run like he did in Aug-Sept, he'll definitely hit the 60 mark, but I don't see that happening. Maybe it does...I hope it does, LOL. 

As for your first question, I think the answer is yes. The Royals played their best baseball of the season in those months and Moore/Yost took notice. I don’t have any specific links but I remember reading some quotes from both of them about it. Then, they went out and signed Billy Hamilton, and if that wasn’t enough speed resigned Terrance Gore to a bizarre contract. This team is going to run a lot this year, perhaps at a record setting pace.

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Just try to study more about Montesi and saw this article in which they are comparing him to Jose Reyes career path.

 

Reyes versus Mondesi—age 22 seasons

Player BB% K% ISO wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
Jose Reyes 3.7% 10.6% 0.114 80 7.4 -11.2 4.7 1.7
Adalberto Mondesi 3.8% 26.5% 0.222 114 5.1 10.0 7.7 2.8

 

Reyes at the age 22 season (2005), had an OBP of .300 but improved a career OBP to .334; however, in his peak years, he had even higher at .344 OBP. Mondesi at age 22 season had an OBP of .306; so can't say he won't improve a bit. Maybe not Reyes' improvement (since Reyes had much higher contact rate), but there is still hope some improvement between BB% and contact % will push the OBP a bit higher. 

 

The power/speed talent is real, so at end of the '19 season, hitting 20+ HR with 45+ SB is not an insane projection. As for BA/OBP, it's a bit hard to project, but I see him in '19 season improve from his career contact rate/BB% to make him at least a hitter with .250-.260 BA and with an OBP over .300.

 

 

Edited by AF25
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Let's give him 600 PA, .300 OBP, 20 HRs, 20 2Bs, and 10 3Bs.  That's 130 times on first base, add in 10 times that he's on first door and to a error or fielder's choice.   So 140 times on 1st.  His percent of times attempting to steal has been 45,35, 61 so far in his three partial seasons.  I'm going to give him 40 percent this year at a success rate of 80. That's 45 SB, add in maybe 5 SB of third base and we are looking at 50.  

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17 hours ago, einstein2u said:

Take me out of the equation, Steamer projects Altuve for 17/18/.302; Mondesi’s projections are 19/38/.252.  Sure, fifty points on average makes a difference, but not enough.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and tell me, “Altuve hits .350 and goes 20/20 while Mondesi goes 20/40/.252,” I’d say, “That’s the info you bring from the future?  What is wrong with you?  Tell me which stocks to invest in!  Who do I bet on to win money?  I have a mortgage to pay now!  I need moneymaking schemes!”  After that tirade, I’d say I still want Mondesi.  I only need to get around .272 on average to be competitive in fantasy leagues.  

(Just to be clear, the above quote was originally from razzball, so this isn't an attack on einstein)

 

LOL at razzball conveniently ignoring both Runs and RBI in this analysis.

So they're saying that the HR projection is nearly equal, but that the 20 SB for Mondesi is so much more valuable than the 50 point batting average advantage for Altuve, that Mondesi is the better pick?

What kind of half assed analysis is that?

They don't bother to account for Altuve's projected ~175 R+RBI vs Mondesi's ~145? 

Or Altuve's guaranteed spot near the top of one of the very best offenses in baseball, rather than Mondesi's unknown batting position in a terrible lineup?

 

It's pretty clear that there has been a big overreaction the past couple years and that steals are now being way waaaay over valued. 

 

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It’s important to keep in mind league context when looking at his ADP.  Nearly all the NFBC drafts so far are draft champions where you can’t make moves during the season. That has to be a huge reason people are pushing him and Villar up so far. Maybe that accounts for some of the “overreaction” if you will since the FOMO on 30 plus steals guys with power is huge when you can’t find it during the season.

 

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23 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

He had 32 steals in 75 games last year.  The Royals have no reason to not let him run, it's not like getting thrown out stealing is going to kill their playoff chances.  If you double his output from last year that's 64 SB.  But projecting anything less than 40 to 45 doesn't make sense. A realistic projection is 50 to 55 with a higher celling than that.

Projecting less than 40 could make plenty of sense. He had only a .306 OBP last year, he had an astronomical Stolen Base Opportunity rate of 61%! That's absolutely insane and unlikely to repeat. Basically, 2/3rds of the time he walks or singles, he steals a base, and he doesn't walk... to put this in perspective, Trea Turner stole 43 bases with a 26% SBO, Whit Merrifield stole 45 with a 28% SBO, Mallex Smith stole 40 with a 35% SHO. Those are the only guys that stole 40 last year. Billy Hamilton had 35 steals with a SBO of 32%, year before 59 steals with SBO of 46%. When Jonathan Collar stole 63 he had an SBO of 43%, he stole that many bases because he had a 369 OBP, and walked 12%, both outliers in his career. 

 

The point is a 61% SBO is absolutely insane, a complete outlier, and unlikely to be repeated. For a guy that struggles to get on base this is a big red flag for pull back in his stolen bases. If his SBO normalizes to even an acceptably high level, he's going to need to get on base a lot more to steal that much, as seeing he doesn't walk, that's an uphill battle. 

 

And this may sound weird, but his power is a disadvantage when it comes to wracking up steals because he doesn't walk at all... so if he's not walking he needs singles to amp up his steals but if he's wacking doubles his stolen base opps go down unless you want to consistently rely on him to steal 3rd.

 

So projecting less than 40 isn't that crazy when you look at how he got to guys production levels last year. 

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25 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Projecting less than 40 could make plenty of sense. He had only a .306 OBP last year, he had an astronomical Stolen Base Opportunity rate of 61%! That's absolutely insane and unlikely to repeat. Basically, 2/3rds of the time he walks or singles, he steals a base, and he doesn't walk... to put this in perspective, Trea Turner stole 43 bases with a 26% SBO, Whit Merrifield stole 45 with a 28% SBO, Mallex Smith stole 40 with a 35% SHO. Those are the only guys that stole 40 last year. Billy Hamilton had 35 steals with a SBO of 32%, year before 59 steals with SBO of 46%. When Jonathan Collar stole 63 he had an SBO of 43%, he stole that many bases because he had a 369 OBP, and walked 12%, both outliers in his career. 

 

The point is a 61% SBO is absolutely insane, a complete outlier, and unlikely to be repeated. For a guy that struggles to get on base this is a big red flag for pull back in his stolen bases. If his SBO normalizes to even an acceptably high level, he's going to need to get on base a lot more to steal that much, as seeing he doesn't walk, that's an uphill battle. 

 

And this may sound weird, but his power is a disadvantage when it comes to wracking up steals because he doesn't walk at all... so if he's not walking he needs singles to amp up his steals but if he's wacking doubles his stolen base opps go down unless you want to consistently rely on him to steal 3rd.

 

So projecting less than 40 isn't that crazy when you look at how he got to guys production levels last year. 

 

Yes, dont' expect him to have 61% SBO..but say he's at 40%..which seems feasible...So with 600 PAs with a .300 OBP that's 180 times on base..subtract 50 for extra base hits and he's on first base..130 times..give him a few more for reaching on errors or fielder's choice..that's 140 times on 1st base..with a 40% SBO that's 56 attempts..even at 70 percent success that's 39 stolen bases..add in 5 more steals of 3rd base and we are at 44.  That seems like the low end number I'd project.  

 

He's been 80+ percent successful so far in his career..so if you give him that success rate, now he's at 50.

 

 

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1 hour ago, murraygd13 said:

 

Yes, dont' expect him to have 61% SBO..but say he's at 40%..which seems feasible...So with 600 PAs with a .300 OBP that's 180 times on base..subtract 50 for extra base hits and he's on first base..130 times..give him a few more for reaching on errors or fielder's choice..that's 140 times on 1st base..with a 40% SBO that's 56 attempts..even at 70 percent success that's 39 stolen bases..add in 5 more steals of 3rd base and we are at 44.  That seems like the low end number I'd project.  

 

He's been 80+ percent successful so far in his career..so if you give him that success rate, now he's at 50.

 

 

I never said he couldn't, I'm saying it's not crazy to project less. You are still protecting a 40% SBO, which is still very high. It wouldn't be out of the question for someone to expect him to come down to a more typical base stealer level like a Trea Turner. And that's assuming he can carry a .300 OBP with his contact issues and not walking... so if someone is expecting pullback on his average and his SBO to normalize, less then 40 isn't just not crazy, it would be expected. 

 

Feel free to project or expect a 40+ SB lock, it's certainly possible... but there's more potential downside than being recognized. 

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On 11/19/2018 at 9:03 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

 

I feel like his adp will drop over the winter and into the spring because of the red flag/sss arguments will start to temper his great finish, so his value could be more reasonable come draft day.

Welllllllllll....

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streamers projects: 

22 hr, 45 Sb 

 

since 1980 that's only been done 9 times:

henderson x 3

arod

eric davis

bonds

trout

hanley ramirez

sandberg

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, einstein2u said:

streamers projects: 

22 hr, 45 Sb 

 

since 1980 that's only been done 9 times:

henderson x 3

arod

eric davis

bonds

trout

hanley ramirez

sandberg

 

 

 

 

Crazy to think that ARod stole 46 bases at age 22 and never stole more than 29 in any other season. 

 

As for Mondesi, I think he has the power and the speed to join that elite company. At age 23, it remains to be seen whether he does that this year or next year or somewhere down the road. Or whether he gets on base enough to do it at all. 

 

On another note, I wish somehow Rickey Henderson could be reincarnated and be on my fantasy team forever and ever. Looking at his numbers is just redonkulous. Lol. As a 21yo, he hit .303, stole 100 bases, walked 117 times to only 54 Ks, scored 111 runs. :o :blink:B)

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When we evaluate Mondesi you really have to start from the beginning expecting a 35 point drop in his average. His .276 average last year was borderline impossible given his profile. He could very well be a 20/50 player if he's given the AB, but will he keep steady AB if he's hitting .220 with an OBP below .280? I think the "Buxton" or "Villar" risk is not being priced into his lofty rankings at this point in time. Maybe by the time real drafts roll around he will drop a bit, because a sexy player like this is always going to be propped up by the touts knowing they aren't drafting for real and won't bear the risk. It'll be interesting to see if the same tune is played when touts are drafting for a season long league.

 

I would not be comfortable drafting him as a starting SS or 2B based on the heavy risk. The replacement options once you get into the season are so bare.

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