Flyman75

Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

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On 2/3/2019 at 2:10 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

Crazy to think that ARod stole 46 bases at age 22 and never stole more than 29 in any other season. 

 

As for Mondesi, I think he has the power and the speed to join that elite company. At age 23, it remains to be seen whether he does that this year or next year or somewhere down the road. Or whether he gets on base enough to do it at all. 

 

On another note, I wish somehow Rickey Henderson could be reincarnated and be on my fantasy team forever and ever. Looking at his numbers is just redonkulous. Lol. As a 21yo, he hit .303, stole 100 bases, walked 117 times to only 54 Ks, scored 111 runs. :o :blink:B)

So underrated, if that’s possible for a HOF’er. Rickey was Votto with 100SB speed, absolutely insane. It’s him and Bonds, on another level for me. Too bad they were both publicly abrasive. 

 

Rickey should be in the best ever convo, IMO. 

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late to this thread as I was just ignoring modesi for many reasons but if they project mondesi for 20/40 with 80/90 and 250 at pick 20 would it make sense to take the proven talent of turner 8-10 picks sooner and get that extra 20+ pt avg and counting stats and the upside. that ranking and projection makes no sense to me at all

Edited by colepenhagen

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4 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

late to this thread as I was just ignoring modesi for many reasons but if they project mondesi for 20/40 with 80/90 and 250 at pick 20 would it make sense to take the proven talent of turner 8-10 picks sooner and get that extra 20+ pt avg and counting stats and the upside. that ranking and projection makes no sense to me at all

 

trea is probably going to be top 8 in most competitive leagues, definitely top 10.  plus i dont think mondesi will be going at 20....but 30s/40s in competitive leagues.

 

i think the thinking is that mondesi had 32 sb in 290 PA so 40 is probably a floor if he gets 650 PA.  hes gonna be hitting 1st or 2nd and the royals probably wont bench him as they arent in contention.  the guy can be a 20/60 guy with a 250 avg.  if you are trying to win your league i think you can afford to take a risk on him in the 3rd or 4th

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6 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

late to this thread as I was just ignoring modesi for many reasons but if they project mondesi for 20/40 with 80/90 and 250 at pick 20 would it make sense to take the proven talent of turner 8-10 picks sooner and get that extra 20+ pt avg and counting stats and the upside. that ranking and projection makes no sense to me at all

 

Trea Turner is proven that's why he's ranked higher. There's a non-zero chance Mondesi is hitting under .220 mid way through the year.

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38 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Trea Turner is proven that's why he's ranked higher. There's a non-zero chance Mondesi is hitting under .220 mid way through the year.

 

yep.  he can pull an Odor and hit 209 or something.

 

if you told me mondesi would hit 270 this year guaranteed id have him in the top 10...maybe top 5

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5th round in the ESPN roto mock they posted (top 50 overall just barely)

 

seems about right i might be more comfortable in the 6th tho idk about top 50 with these other SS out there

Edited by kmoore1521

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Will ST be able to tell us anything about him? I know it's foolish to rely on ST stats. Could we actually watch him play and look at the quality of his ABs and take that as a good sign? Since his AVG./OBP. is the problem how are we to use ST work to evaluate for the season?

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6 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Will ST be able to tell us anything about him? I know it's foolish to rely on ST stats. Could we actually watch him play and look at the quality of his ABs and take that as a good sign? Since his AVG./OBP. is the problem how are we to use ST work to evaluate for the season?

 

We might see where he slots in in the lineup but stats should always be taken with a grain of salt.

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3 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

We might see where he slots in in the lineup but stats should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Lineup spot does little for me to be able to evaluate his gains as an actual player in regard to his AVG/OBP concerns.

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1 hour ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Lineup spot does little for me to be able to evaluate his gains as an actual player in regard to his AVG/OBP concerns.

 

You won't be able to see that in Spring either.

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Things I look for in ST:

 

is player healthy

general idea of where is player playing on defense e.g. only OF, or only 3rd base.

general idea of where player is batting (lineup order) - e.g. is player hitting 7th-8th or 1st-2nd.

eye test - e.g. does player look spry, comfortable or completely lost, slow, etc. (and even then don't always look too far into it depending on who the player is, etc. - see Ohtani 2018 ST)

 

Stats - don't care much unless it's a player fighting for a spot and hits .150 while his competitor is hitting .450 - e.g. Bird vs. Voit.

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Sal Perez is out....so i'd say O'Hearn or Soler at 3-4, with Whit and Mondesi at the top.  Gordon probably slots in at 3 or 5.  I actually love that the Royals stink and without Sal they will have to create runs.  Legs.

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7 hours ago, jonance said:

Sal Perez is out....so i'd say O'Hearn or Soler at 3-4, with Whit and Mondesi at the top.  Gordon probably slots in at 3 or 5.  I actually love that the Royals stink and without Sal they will have to create runs.  Legs.

The Royals might have 3 guys steal 40 bags. Mondesi should lead the way

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Very low on this guy this year due to the poor plate discipline. He also never stole bases in the minors at the same rate that he did in last year's stretch. Sometimes we get too caught up into guys with HR + SB upside. I'll let someone else draft him. 

Edited by LasTortugasFB
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Hello everyone,,

Can't let a guy with first round upside fall past the 5th. On a per game basis. He was a top 2-3 player in the entire MLB.  The hit rate of draft day gets spotty quicker than people realize.  I'm not expecting him to keep that pace, but you are not paying him to keep that pace either.

 

Still has a higher floor that people think about. Steals will be there and the Royals will give a plus defensive SS a metric ton of leash thru slumps. In 2013 Escobar had a .247 wOBA and 49 RC+. They played him 158 games with that batting line. Granted Escobar made a lot of contact, and Mondesi might not. So it could be slightly higher.

 

 Just needs to keep his WAR positive thru defense and base-running.

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7 hours ago, LasTortugasFB said:

Very low on this guy this year due to the poor plate discipline. He also never stole bases in the minors at the same rate that he did in last year's stretch. Sometimes we get too caught up into guys with HR + SB upside. I'll let someone else draft him. 

 

thanks

 

sincerely,

 

Someone else

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9 hours ago, LasTortugasFB said:

Very low on this guy this year due to the poor plate discipline. He also never stole bases in the minors at the same rate that he did in last year's stretch. Sometimes we get too caught up into guys with HR + SB upside. I'll let someone else draft him. 

 

And you've made someone in your league very happy. 

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I can't bring myself to draft this kid at the price he's going at. I'd rather take the consistency of a Segura. I'll gamble in the back end of drafts with someone like Rosario as a middle INF speedster with some pop. 

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Just now, bigbluecrew56 said:

I can't bring myself to draft this kid at the price he's going at. I'd rather take the consistency of a Segura. I'll gamble in the back end of drafts with someone like Rosario as a middle INF speedster with some pop. 

 

it depends how your draft goes.  like if i have a late first round pick, im getting 2 safe guys without SB upside like Bregman/judge or bregman/harper or yelich/goldschmidt...something like that,  then im ok with taking a risk on mondesi being a 20/50 guy in the late 3rd early 4th.  but if i take a risky pick like acuna, or i end up taking a scherzer or degrom then i wont be taking mondesi.  or if my first 2 rounds give me 20+ sb each person....like yelich/story...joram/tendi then i prob wont take the risk.

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Wow. Never saw that his OBP is below .300. Might be tough for him to retain lead off for the whole year

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1 hour ago, dannyusf said:

 

Wow. Never saw that his OBP is below .300. Might be tough for him to retain lead off for the whole year

 

I don't think thats really the concern with him, more so the low OBP limting his Sb opps while also hurting our BA category, barring a super slump hes not getting bumped from the top 2 in that lineup after that end to his season last year, as long his average doesnt bottom out Royals will let the kid make adjustments imo

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6 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

as long his average doesnt bottom out 

 

That's a realistic concern though.

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