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Alex Bregman 2019 Outlook

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10 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 Bregman is easily one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Nothing in his profile or Minors history suggests that he can be a 30 HR bat going forward or that he will consistently steal bases in double digits. He’s a .285/25 HR/85 RBI/100 R/12 SB player and that’s not even close to first round value. His ceiling isn’t nearly as high as people think and I predict a lot of people will be burned this year.

 

Tell me what in the profiles or MiLB histories of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor pointed to what they're doing. What in Mike Trout's minor league history pointed to him hitting 30 HR in his first full MLB season? What in Betts' minor league history pointed to him hitting 31 HR in his second full season the Majors? It happens. Guys grow mature, figure things out all the time. 

 

I posted this a couple of years ago, but Bregman has never been devoid of power. He set the New Mexico high school single-season HR record. He got to LSU, and Paul Mainieri leveled out his swing and took away his launch angle. That combined with the dead ball and bat era of college baseball took away most of the power he had, and yet he still hit 21 HR in 786 ABs at LSU. So between the 2015-2016 seasons, he purposefully worked on his launch angle for the expressed purpose of becoming the power hitter we LSU fans thought he'd be when we signed him. He recaptured the power he demonstrated in HS. The result is what you saw in 2016, and it continues today. 

 

And besides, saying nothing in his Minors history suggests 30 HR power or dd SBs is just lazy and wrong. In 586 MiLB ABs, he hit 24 HR and stole 20 bases, and that's including 4 HR in 272 AB before regaining his launch angle. 

 

Now he's hit 31 HR in his second full MLB season (at age 24) and now has dd SBs in both of his full MLB seasons. It's almost like you just wrote that as a troll rather than something you truly believe. 

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12 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

Well he hit 31 bombs last year so I'm struggling to see how his ceiling is 25 HRs. 

I do think he's slightly overrated in traditional 5x5 formats, but in an OBP league he's worth the extra dollar.

That’s on average. He can hit 28 or 31 sometimes but typically he’s a mid 20’s HR bat.

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Tell me what in the profiles or MiLB histories of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor pointed to what they're doing. What in Mike Trout's minor league history pointed to him hitting 30 HR in his first full MLB season? What in Betts' minor league history pointed to him hitting 31 HR in his second full season the Majors? It happens. Guys grow mature, figure things out all the time. 

 

I posted this a couple of years ago, but Bregman has never been devoid of power. He set the New Mexico high school single-season HR record. He got to LSU, and Paul Mainieri leveled out his swing and took away his launch angle. That combined with the dead ball and bat era of college baseball took away most of the power he had, and yet he still hit 21 HR in 786 ABs at LSU. So between the 2015-2016 seasons, he purposefully worked on his launch angle for the expressed purpose of becoming the power hitter we LSU fans thought he'd be when we signed him. He recaptured the power he demonstrated in HS. The result is what you saw in 2016, and it continues today. 

 

And besides, saying nothing in his Minors history suggests 30 HR power or dd SBs is just lazy and wrong. In 586 MiLB ABs, he hit 24 HR and stole 20 bases, and that's including 4 HR in 272 AB before regaining his launch angle. 

 

Now he's hit 31 HR in his second full MLB season (at age 24) and now has dd SBs in both of his full MLB seasons. It's almost like you just wrote that as a troll rather than something you truly believe. 

 

You think it’s “trolling” if someone doesn’t view Bregman as an elite player that you do. You wrote an entire paragraph detailing how you think I’m wrong. You’re emotionally invested and aren’t thinking clearly.

You mentioned a couple exceptional talents and then used them as evidence of what Bregman can do, that’s silly. Most players aren’t Trout so that’s not even worth debating. 

 

Let’s look at facts:

1. Never been a power threat in the Minors and the VAST majority of players who weren’t power threats in the minors, aren’t ones in the Majors.

 

2. His Hardhit% barely increased from 2017 to 2018 but his home runs doubled. Classic sign of a fluke.

 

3. Steamer, that has been proven to be the most accurate projection system agrees with me not you.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

http://mrcheatsheet.com/2017/03/29/best-baseball-projections/

 

Steamer projection for Bregman:

.279/25 HR/90 RBI/96 R/10 SB 

That’s right in line with what I’m saying. Are you claiming to know more than the most accurate projection system?

 

4. His exit velocity barely increased too and isn’t among the elite power hitters in the game.

5. 2018 XBA: .268

             XSLG: .463

In other words, 2018 wasn’t a reflection of his true talent level, he’s actually worse than that.

 

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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4 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 

You think it’s “trolling” if someone doesn’t view Bregman as an elite player that you do. You wrote an entire paragraph detailing how you think I’m wrong. You’re emotionally invested and aren’t thinking clearly.

You mentioned a couple exceptional talents and then used them as evidence of what Bregman can do, that’s silly. Most players aren’t Trout so that’s not even worth debating. 

 

Let’s look at facts:

1. Never been a power threat in the Minors and the VAST majority of players who weren’t power threats in the minors, aren’t ones in the Majors.

 

2. His Hardhit% barely increased from 2017 to 2018 but his home runs doubled. Classic sign of a fluke.

 

3. Steamer, that has been proven to be the most accurate projection system agrees with me not you.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

http://mrcheatsheet.com/2017/03/29/best-baseball-projections/

 

Steamer projection for Bregman:

.279/25 HR/90 RBI/96 R/10 SB 

That’s right in line with what I’m saying. Are you claiming to know more than the most accurate projection system?

 

4. His exit velocity barely increased too and isn’t among the elite power hitters in the game.

5. 2018 XBA: .268

             XSLG: .463

In other words, 2018 wasn’t a reflection of his true talent level, he’s actually worse than that.

 

 

Okay, so I'm not emotionally invested in Bregman. In fact, I own him for the first time ever as of two days ago. I don't get "emotionally invested". That's nonsense. 

 

Secondly, I stopped reading the rest of your drivel when you said Bregman never was a power threat in the minors. If you can't bother to fact-check yourself and admit you were wrong, then you're not worth having an argument with. But just to show you that you're wrong...he spent half a season in the minors in 2015. Not much power. Retooled his swing that offseason, increased his launch angle, and spent a little over half a season in the minors in 2016...hitting 20 HR in 314 AB. Then he was called up to Houston and hasn't been back. 

 

Okay, so I read a little further, and you mentioned Steamer. You do know that Steamer is known to be conservative in its projections, right? No, probably not. Carry on. 

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49 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

That’s on average. He can hit 28 or 31 sometimes but typically he’s a mid 20’s HR bat.

 

All snarkiness and general turdiness on my part aside, I don't think we can say he's "typically" any kind of HR bat at this point. He's 25, and he's still growing and maturing as a player, maturing physically as a MLBer. My point with JoRam, Lindor, Trout, Betts was to say that you can't just look at a guy who is showing HR growth and say, "Well, he didn't do it in the minors, so this isn't real." Those are just four players. I'm positive I could find more if I had the inclination to look. Players get stronger in the Majors, and if Bregman hadn't been on the front end of the "launch angle revolution", I'd probably agree with you. But he's elevated his launch angle, and the results are showing as he matures. I'm not saying he'll be a 40 HR guy, but I do believe saying he's a 25 HR guy is just cutting him short, especially when we really don't know what he's going to be. He may very well follow Betts' path...hitting 31, then 24, then 32. Or he may keep hitting 30+...or he may have hit his career high in 2018. We just don't know. So saying he's "typically a mid 20's HR bat" is nothing more than a guess on your part...just like it would be if I said he's a definite annual 30 HR bat. 

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20 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Okay, so I'm not emotionally invested in Bregman. In fact, I own him for the first time ever as of two days ago. I don't get "emotionally invested". That's nonsense. 

 

Secondly, I stopped reading the rest of your drivel when you said Bregman never was a power threat in the minors. If you can't bother to fact-check yourself and admit you were wrong, then you're not worth having an argument with. But just to show you that you're wrong...he spent half a season in the minors in 2015. Not much power. Retooled his swing that offseason, increased his launch angle, and spent a little over half a season in the minors in 2016...hitting 20 HR in 314 AB. Then he was called up to Houston and hasn't been back. 

 

Okay, so I read a little further, and you mentioned Steamer. You do know that Steamer is known to be conservative in its projections, right? No, probably not. Carry on. 

 

I've also heard that THE BAT is a better projection system these days.

 

It has him for .286/ 29 HR / 99 R / 93 RBI / 11 SB

 

Personally, I really trust Bregman as a hitter. His profile is so elite in terms of his contact skills and batters eye. 

3rd in BB/K Ratio (one of only 3 hitters to walk more than strike out)

5th in O Swing% 

4th in Contact % 

13th O-Contact%

2nd Lowest SwgStr%

 

I feel like his floor is so safe, even if the power doesn't repeat. His BABIP was only .289 last year so there could be room for growth. That BA should be creeping to the .300s
 

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Turn the Calendar page please - AB is 1 for 19 in his career in the month of March...

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17 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Turn the Calendar page please - AB is 1 for 19 in his career in the month of March...

 

buy  low if he has a bad april again

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Hope he doesn't start off slow again.. But it's been a trend his whole career.

 

Started slow after being recalled in 2016.

 

Started slow to start both the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

 

2019 - ?

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Bregman leaving the game. Didn't even wait for the trainer's permission. Don't know what happened. 

Edited by IceGoat

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It looked a bit like a hamstring to me

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Hinch saying sore hammy.  No indication of severity yet. 

Edited by treat88

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FWIW....probably not much, but walking off the field he didn’t seem to be favoring it all that much. Hopefully it’s just a short DL stint.

Edited by hangin n wangin

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Clevinger thought he'd be fine for his next start too. I'll wait until an official diagnosis

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He tells the reporters he's fine as he cradles his dismembered leg in his arms while massaging the hamstring.

Edited by IceGoat
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If he misses more time than expected, who's gonna fill in?

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My editorial comment:

Standard BS talk when “testing a hamstring” can’t re-create trying to beat out a dribbler in the 8th inning of a tie game or having to range far into the hole on a 110mph screamer.

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Hamstrings are always tricky.  I'd hope if there were any abnormalities during testing, they'd give him a short DL stint to get right.  Next two days off...just have to hope the rest works its magic.

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