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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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Just now, South Carolina said:

I'd be very nervous if I drafted him in a money league. In a free ESPN League who cares? 

 

The truth is he'll be there. NOBODY is gonna give up $800,000+ per game if their intent is to make money in the first place. Especially as an aging RB with an always shortening shelf life. 

 

Its just a matter of when he comes back, but if you drafted him your pretty much screwed, so it seems.

 

it really just depends on how much he thinks he can make on a new contract next year.  if his projections for his next contract are high enough it makes sense to leave the 800k on the table.  it is a risk/reward proposition at some point the risk is worth the reward.  personally i think it is unwise but i certainly see the logic

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5 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

 

you gotta be kidding, did you even read the contract they offered him?  they basically offered him 10mil guaranteed, his franchise tag is worth 14mil.  he'd be losing 4mil right off the top.  add in that it is a 5 year contract, break it down he would have been making 2mil a year plus whatever the remaining 60mil of non guaranteed money would be distributed throughout the years.  the 70mil makes headlines but that offered pretty much sucked because there was no way in hell he was going to realize the majority of that money.

Image result for steve carell gif thank you

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4 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I don't get this mentality... The guy hasn't been the epitome of a great worker or team mate. For people like you where are the limits? 

right? he's either hurt, can't pass a drug test, or holding out for more money. ON the field he is great, but he plays a position that is far down the totem pole, if I were the steelers, I'd happily take someone younger and cheaper and upgrade my team elsewhere.

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Someone on local radio called in today with a theory and I don't think it's that crazy honestly. We'll, it is crazy, but I'll say it anyway... 

 

What if he smoked pot or something during this hold out and is unsure if he can pass a drug test?

 

I believe the way the NFL works is that you don't get drug tested once the season starts. 

 

Currently he hasn't signed his tag so he's not affiliated with the NFL as of today and they can't test him. 

 

Maybe he's just waiting until the season begins to avoid a test.

 

Crazy theory right... Or is it? 

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4 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

it really just depends on how much he thinks he can make on a new contract next year.  if his projections for his next contract are high enough it makes sense to leave the 800k on the table.  it is a risk/reward proposition at some point the risk is worth the reward.  personally i think it is unwise but i certainly see the logic

 

Regardless he can't get this years money back and he'll be a year older. Not a wise decision to sit. 

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1 minute ago, South Carolina said:

I'd be very nervous if I drafted him in a money league. In a free ESPN League who cares? 

 

The truth is he'll be there. NOBODY is gonna give up $800,000+ per game if their intent is to make money in the first place. Especially as an aging RB with an always shortening shelf life. 

 

Its just a matter of when he comes back, but if you drafted him your pretty much screwed, so it seems.

Here's the thing, if he doesn't sign/report before week 1 then why would he do so before the deadline? The end game doesn't really make a lot of sense to me at this moment unless he sits for a while. If not, just sign and get the money. 

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2 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Someone on local radio called in today with a theory and I don't think it's that crazy honestly. We'll, it is crazy, but I'll say it anyway... 

 

What if he smoked pot or something during this hold out and is unsure if he can pass a drug test?

 

I believe the way the NFL works is that you don't get drug tested once the season starts. 

 

Currently he hasn't signed his tag so he's not affiliated with the NFL as of today and they can't test him. 

 

Maybe he's just waiting until the season begins to avoid a test.

 

Crazy theory right... Or is it? 

 

No, I like it. That would be the great! Imagine after all this he finally comes back and tests positive for Meth. Hahaha. 

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15 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

You my friend get it. And I just think it's hilarious the people who act like steelers offered bell a bag of peanuts for a contract.  

 

Didn't they offer Bell 33 mil guaranteed?

 

Gurley is getting 60mil guaranteed. David Johnson is signing for a similar amount.  Both of their extensions came quickly. 

 

Funny how those 2 players didn't have to play under the franchise tag twice by their teams.

 

And no, the Steelers doing what they are doing isnt because of his suspensions, this is how they have always operated.  It has given them success, but it's bound to rub some players the wrong way.  I don't blame Bell for being upset about 2 consecutive franchise tags.  If you can find a source that says they offered him similar contracts as Gurley and Johnson then I'll take back what I said.

 

It's not as one sided as you're making it seem.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

I'd be very nervous if I drafted him in a money league. In a free ESPN League who cares? 

 

The truth is he'll be there. NOBODY is gonna give up $800,000+ per game if their intent is to make money in the first place. Especially as an aging RB with an always shortening shelf life. 

 

Its just a matter of when he comes back, but if you drafted him your pretty much screwed, so it seems.

 

Nobody as in you and I. Bell is not "nobody". Let's put it this way, I'm only speculating here but the Jets would almost certainly be in the market for a "healthy" Bell at whatever guaranteed price to pair him with Darnold for the next four years. Can you imagine the electricity that would generate for a Jets team playing second fiddle to my beloved NY Giants? The Jets are set to lead the league again in cap space in 2019 and was reportedly ready to offer Kirk freakin Cousins 90 million guaranteed. I'm not saying Bell will get anywhere near that money being a non QB, but he will get paid.

 

On the flipside, if Bell get's hurt, he could very well become Dez Bryant next season. All for that 800K for a couple of games that you refer to.

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4 minutes ago, Flyers_28 said:

can he sign gameday then suit up to get paid ? 

 

I believe he can sign all the way up until Saturday and still get paid for week 1. 

 

If he still wanted to get paid all of his game checks and avoid work week 1, signing at the last second makes sense. 

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look at it this way, not saying he is getting Gurley's deal but he got $45mil guaranteed. so from Bell's point of view is the risk of injury worth 10mil, if you have potential 45ml on the horizon.  if he truly thinks he is getting that kind of money he is nuts to play anytime earlier than week 10. he would be putting at risk 35mil for 10mil.  of course it all depends on his projection, and it can be debated  whether he can get that, but you can bet that is what is agent is telling him.

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2 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Here's the thing, if he doesn't sign/report before week 1 then why would he do so before the deadline? The end game doesn't really make a lot of sense to me at this moment unless he sits for a while. If not, just sign and get the money. 

 

His value drops the longer he sits and older he gets. Let's just say hypothetically he sits out the year and becomes a free agent. Would you break the bank for an aging RB who hasn't played in well over a full year? Who would be crazy enough to make him the highest paid RB when you can get great value at RB in the draft?

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2 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Nobody as in you and I. Bell is not "nobody". Let's put it this way, I'm only speculating here but the Jets would almost certainly be in the market for a "healthy" Bell at whatever guaranteed price to pair him with Darnold for the next four years. Can you imagine the electricity that would generate? The Jets are set to lead the league again in cap space in 2019 and was reporting ready to offer Kirk freakin Cousins 90 million guaranteed. I'm not saying Bell will get anywhere near that money being a non QB, but he will get paid.

 

On the flipside, if Bell get's hurt, he could very well become Dez Bryant next season. All for that 800K for a couple of games that you refer to.

 

I wouldn’t pay top dollar for a rb at age 26/27 with all the holes in the Jets roster.  If they want to “team” something with Darnold, they should start finding better offensive linemen. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Nobody as in you and I. Bell is not "nobody". Let's put it this way, I'm only speculating here but the Jets would almost certainly be in the market for a "healthy" Bell at whatever guaranteed price to pair him with Darnold for the next four years. Can you imagine the electricity that would generate for a Jets team playing second fiddle to my beloved NY Giants? The Jets are set to lead the league again in cap space in 2019 and was reportedly ready to offer Kirk freakin Cousins 90 million guaranteed. I'm not saying Bell will get anywhere near that money being a non QB, but he will get paid.

 

On the flipside, if Bell get's hurt, he could very well become Dez Bryant next season. All for that 800K for a couple of games that you refer to.

 

He could get hurt anytime. So why come back at all? MONEY 

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4 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

His value drops the longer he sits and older he gets. Let's just say hypothetically he sits out the year and becomes a free agent. Would you break the bank for an aging RB who hasn't played in well over a full year? Who would be crazy enough to make him the highest paid RB when you can get great value at RB in the draft?

 

You mean a talented rb with 400 less touches on him? 

Sure why not.

Would you pay top dollar for a high mileage rb?

 

Interestingly the Steelers are legit SB contenders so they actually should pay him top dollar if they beleive he is a key to winning a title. Hw many more years does Ben have and how long before AB starts to decline?

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4 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I believe he can sign all the way up until Saturday and still get paid for week 1. 

 

If he still wanted to get paid all of his game checks and avoid work week 1, signing at the last second makes sense. 

 

So then he gets all the bad juju of pissing off his teammates for a measly $800K... 

 

I kinda feel that if he doesn't sign basically immediately, this is going to be an extended holdout. 

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2 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

His value drops the longer he sits and older he gets. Let's just say hypothetically he sits out the year and becomes a free agent. Would you break the bank for an aging RB who hasn't played in well over a full year? Who would be crazy enough to make him the highest paid RB when you can get great value at RB in the draft?

His value drops more if he blows out his acl than if he sits out the season. He’s still young enough to land a 4 year contract, especially if he doesn’t take a beating all year in pitt

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4 minutes ago, Panthor said:

look at it this way, not saying he is getting Gurley's deal but he got $45mil guaranteed. so from Bell's point of view is the risk of injury worth 10mil, if you have potential 45ml on the horizon.  if he truly thinks he is getting that kind of money he is nuts to play anytime earlier than week 10. he would be putting at risk 35mil for 10mil.  of course it all depends on his projection, and it can be debated  whether he can get that, but you can bet that is what is agent is telling him.

You get it.  Bell maybe thinks he can eat the $10 million in lost wages from 2018, report at the last possible time, accrue a season, and hit the jackpot prior to 2019.  That Steelers "offer" was a bad joke.  What the Steelers really want to do is ride Bell until the wheels fall off.  No thanks.

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Just now, phisouza33 said:

His value drops more if he blows out his acl than if he sits out the season. He’s still young enough to land a 4 year contract, especially if he doesn’t take a beating all year in pitt

 

But anybody can blow out their leg. Every NFL player has the same worry. That's not the Steelers problem or incentive to sign him.

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18 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

I'd be very nervous if I drafted him in a money league. In a free ESPN League who cares? 

 

The truth is he'll be there. NOBODY is gonna give up $800,000+ per game if their intent is to make money in the first place. Especially as an aging RB with an always shortening shelf life.

 

He's already made $16 million (not even counting endorsement money) so he is quite probably set for life.  $800k?  Trivial pocket change.  Psssssssh.

 

The Steelers offered him $30 million guaranteed.  5-years, $70 million total.

 

The Rams just signed RB Todd Gurley to a 4-year $60 million extension, including $45 million guaranteed.

 

That $15 million difference in guaranteed money is exactly why Leveon Bell is right to hold out.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

His value drops the longer he sits and older he gets. Let's just say hypothetically he sits out the year and becomes a free agent. Would you break the bank for an aging RB who hasn't played in well over a full year? Who would be crazy enough to make him the highest paid RB when you can get great value at RB in the draft?

His value is dropping regardless; if he plays, he gets 400 touches and maybe injured. If he sits, he still runs the risk of getting injured for the 6 games or whatever he plays, but significantly fewer touches over the year. If he signs, plays 14-15 games and doesn't get hurt but sucks for some reason he's not getting the money. He'll still be a year older come 2019 regardless of what happens. 

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1 minute ago, Robrain said:

 

He's already made $16 million (not even counting endorsement money) so he is quite probably set for life.  $800k?  Trivial pocket change.  Psssssssh.

 

The Steelers offered him $30 million guaranteed.  5-years, $70 million total.

 

The Rams just signed RB Todd Gurley to a 4-year $60 million extension, including $45 million guaranteed.

 

That $15 million difference in guaranteed money is exactly why Leveon Bell is right to hold out.

 

 

 

Understood. But the Steelers already made it clear. HE'S NOT GETTING A NEW DEAL. So suck it up, work your butt off, bank 16 bills and have a great year. 

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