James Paxton 2019 Outlook

[jfazz23 2,529]

does the trade to new york increase his value? decrease? no change?

 

can he give you 180+ innings?

[2ndCitySox 4,366]

Positive in wins leagues, negative in others.  

 

180 is possible but unlikely

[shakestreet 3,937]

1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

does the trade to new york increase his value? decrease? no change?

 

can he give you 180+ innings?

I hate this trade.. I wanted the Yankees to give Sheffield a chance 

[Triple Short Of a Cycle 445]

1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

I hate this trade.. I wanted the Yankees to give Sheffield a chance 

 

Dude has really bad control. At best Paxton is what Sheff becomes. You do this trade 100 percent of the time

[2Balls1Bat 36]

2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I hate this trade.. I wanted the Yankees to give Sheffield a chance 

I agree. As a Yankees fan I was real excited about seeing what Sheffield could do over a full season this year and didn't want to see Paxton in pinstripes at all. Paxton is a great pitcher when healthy but he hasn't been able to stay healthy at all for his entire career and fail to see how his odds of finally pitching for a full season will increase as he ages even older. I would have maybe been more on board had the Yankees been able to pull a similar deal for Kluber, how ever either way it would have been disappointing to see Sheffield go.  I hope we can at least get some innings from Paxton because I am not convinced he will be pitching much for us over the next couple of seasons and to give up Sheffield for him might end up biting us in the rear over the next few years.  This is also very disapointing in terms of fantasy outlook for Paxton as well.  health concerns aside, it remains to be seen how he will handle pitching at Yankee stadium and against the AL East over a full season.  I hope this move works out but I can see a lot more going wrong then right at this point. Carl Pavano's name comes to mind even though he was brought in as a free agent and didn't have Paxton's injury history and was a work horse both before and after his tenure with the Yankees. However in terms of time spent on the field and performance versus expectations it could very well wind up being a good comparison. 

 

Of course, this is all purely speculation and he could end up turning in his healthiest and best years in pinstripes, which would make this trade well worth it.  I just don't expect that and think there is way too much risk involved with this acquisition and given the price they gave, would have much rather seen the Yankees give Sheffield an opportunity and seen the Yankees look else where for rotation help.

[Dirty Little Birdie 1,084]

Love the trade for the Yankees. As for Paxtons value, like someone previoiusly mentioned - it goes up in W's leagues and stays the same or slightly goes down in other leagues. 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

Great trade for the Yanks. 

[jonance 23]

As a Paxton owner I hate this trade....worst case landing spot other than COL or ARI.  AL East in a jet stream park.

[Brooklyn Dude 438]

17 minutes ago, jonance said:

As a Paxton owner I hate this trade....worst case landing spot other than COL or ARI.  AL East in a jet stream park.

 

People were thinking the same thing when Chris Sale went to the Red Sox and he turned out okay.

Facing the Red Sox more will hurt but Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay are not that imposing. 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

5 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

People were thinking the same thing when Chris Sale went to the Red Sox and he turned out okay.

Facing the Red Sox more will hurt but Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay are not that imposing. 

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's park while Safeco is rather neutral. However, Paxton is good at limiting homers. His HR/FB was pretty flukey last season, so he should be fine. He's still a solid SP2 for most 12-team leagues in 2019.

[Brooklyn Dude 438]

Just now, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's still a solid SP2 for most 12-team leagues in 2019.

 

That's true if he only gets you 160 IP.  

But if he ever gives his team 200 IP,  that would change him into a SP1.   He's certainly due for some good health one of these years.

[this guy right here 927]

12 hours ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

 

Dude has really bad control. At best Paxton is what Sheff becomes. You do this trade 100 percent of the time

 

Paxton- IN/BB/WHIP

 

Sheffield- IN/BB/WHIP

Even if Sheffield's control WAS worse than Paxton's, Randy Johnson had really bad control early in his career. How'd that turn out.

Paxton is 30yo and 165 innings is his "healthiest" season of production.

If Sheffield (22yo) stays healthy, and he's shown no sighs of being injury prone unlike Paxton, he is more valuable.

At worst Sheffield puts up numbers similar to Paxton for an entire season, multiple seasons.

 

 

[TopChuckie 166]

2 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

That's true if he only gets you 160 IP.  

But if he ever gives his team 200 IP,  that would change him into a SP1.   He's certainly due for some good health one of these years.

So is Troy Tulowitski.

[jfazz23 2,529]

27 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

 

 

At worst Sheffield puts up numbers similar to Paxton for an entire season, multiple seasons.

 

 

 

this is absolutely not true

[this guy right here 927]

54 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

this is absolutely not true

 

Well, I provided statistical evidence to support my claim. What's your evidence....you want it to be true because you're a "hardcore" Yankees fan?

 

Paxton- IN/BB/WHIP

Sheffield- IN/BB/WHIP

[this guy right here 927]

 

 

Paxton- IN/BB/WHIP

Minor League Totals

27

24

3.61

85

83

2

0

421.1

402

199

169

28

180

450

3.84

9.61

1.38

 

Sheffield- IN/BB/WHIP

 

Minor League Totals

36

24

3.08

103

94

1

0

487.2

446

204

167

32

184

507

3.40

9.36

1.29

[this guy right here 927]

14 hours ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

 

Dude has really bad control. At best Paxton is what Sheff becomes. You do this trade 100 percent of the time

 

Look above for your "really bad control" narrative being 100% unfounded when comparing the two.

[motown magic 736]

Over his career Paxton has 2.93 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Over the last two years he is 2.73. He has a 11.1 K's per 9 . I think this was a great trade for the Yankees.

[Mikewastaken 413]

Paxton has shown he can dominate major league lineups. Sheffield hasn't, and might never. That's the definition of a prospect. 

[this guy right here 927]

Just now, Mikewastaken said:

Paxton has shown he can dominate major league lineups. Sheffield hasn't, and might never. That's the definition of a prospect. 

 

WHEN healthy.

Sheffield has proven he isn't injury prone AND is eight years younger.

Sheffield hasn't been given the chance to prove himself. When comparing minor league success, they are Sheffield has the edge. 

Is it a guarantee? No, but it would lend itself to suggest he has the potential to be better and healthy.

 

Do I think this is horrible? Absolutely not. But it does seem like they may be going back to their old ways of older and riskier.

[Mikewastaken 413]

Eh, I disagree that it signals a change. They still have Adams, Loaisiga, and a bunch of younger guys too, all who could step up as early as next year. They traded one kind of risk for another I suppose, but from a position of strength. Paxton is the right kind of risk to take on for where they're at.

[this guy right here 927]

26 minutes ago, Mikewastaken said:

Eh, I disagree that it signals a change. They still have Adams, Loaisiga, and a bunch of younger guys too, all who could step up as early as next year. They traded one kind of risk for another I suppose, but from a position of strength. Paxton is the right kind of risk to take on for where they're at.

 

Like I'm said, I'm not against the move. I just couldn't sit back and let people continue to push this Sheffield has "horrible control" narrative as a reason to get excited. 

Paxton had worse control when he was in the minors when he was older than 22.

[jfazz23 2,529]

1 hour ago, this guy right here said:

 

Well, I provided statistical evidence to support my claim. What's your evidence....you want it to be true because you're a "hardcore" Yankees fan?

 

Paxton- IN/BB/WHIP

Sheffield- IN/BB/WHIP

 

if you think this "proves" that sheffield is going to be paxton "at worst" then i really dont know what to tell you...

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

I could see Sheffield developing into an SP3 or even ending up as a long relief guy in the bullpen, at last for 2019. He's good, but I doubt he ends up being an ace. 

 

Let's just cross our fingers that Pax can give us 170 innings in 2019. 

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/prospect-rundown-who-are-the-prospects-going-to-seattle-in-the-james-paxton-trade/

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/making-sense-of-the-yankees-trade-for-mariners-ace-james-paxton-and-whats-ahead-for-both-clubs/amp/

[this guy right here 927]

53 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

if you think this "proves" that sheffield is going to be paxton "at worst" then i really dont know what to tell you...

I originally commented on the tired narrative that Sheffield has "really bad control" so Paxton is better nonsense.

The stats I provided didn't show.

 

2 hours ago, this guy right here said:

Paxton- IN/BB/WHIP

Minor League Totals

27

24

3.61

85

83

2

0

421.1

402

199

169

28

180

450

3.84

9.61

1.38

 

Sheffield- IN/BB/WHIP

 

Minor League Totals

36

24

3.08

103

94

1

0

487.2

446

204

167

32

184

507

3.40

9.36

1.29

 

Here is the information that supports my claim.

Paxton's control was WORSE in the minors and he was already older than Sheffield is now.

It doesn't "prove" Sheffield will be better but it DOES provide evidence that Sheffield was just as good, if not better, than Paxton when he was 22yo

You make a claim with ZERO evidence to support it and that is your argument.

Sorry buddy, your opinion is trumped by fact. Your rose tinted glasses can't block truth.

I like Paxton. This has the potential for immediate impact. IF....the dude can stay healthy.

Even if Sheffield needed two more years of development to reach Paxton's level he'd still only be 24yo. SIX years younger than Paxton.