jfazz23

James Paxton 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Sheffield has proven nothing at the major league level (and has a dicey K/9 for a guy with his supposed caliber of stuff). I suppose, in hindsight, the writing could have been on the wall for the Yankees being willing to deal Sheffield when he wasn't called up in September.

 

As for Paxton, I like the move and feel his stuff can play anywhere.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Sheffield has proven nothing at the major league level (and has a dicey K/9 for a guy with his supposed caliber of stuff). I suppose, in hindsight, the writing could have been on the wall for the Yankees being willing to deal Sheffield when he wasn't called up in September.

 

As for Paxton, I like the move and feel his stuff can play anywhere.

Cozy confines of Safeco to Yankee stadium + more bandboxes in AL East figures to have to have some effect you’d think right?  3.35 home era in Safeco last year vs 4.24 on road.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

8 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Sheffield has proven nothing at the major league level

 

What did Paxton prove at the major league level at 22yo? 

Claiming that a 22yo who has 2.2 major league innings has proven anything as RIDICULOUS!

He hasn't had a chance to prove anything. Zero results from zero opportunity does not equal unsuccessful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Cozy confines of Safeco to Yankee stadium + more bandboxes in AL East figures to have to have some effect you’d think right?  3.35 home era in Safeco last year vs 4.24 on road.  

 

4th in  Fip over last 3 seasons behind Sale, Kershaw and degrom...just ahead of scherzer and kluber

 

3.02 xFip last year which was 4th in majors and also 4th in k/9.

 

the only question with paxton is health....the chances of sheffield being close to this good are slim 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How good Sheffield is compared to where Paxton was at the same age is irrelevant. If every pitcher who was better than Paxton at 22 went on to reach a higher ceiling than he has, MLB would have less scoring than MLS.

 

Pitchers don't follow linear development paths and are often derailed by injuries. TINSTAAPP is a phrase for a reason. Lucas Giolito was once the best pitching prospect in baseball and produced negative WAR in 2018. Ross Stripling was never thought of as a prospect and pitched like an ace. I could produce many more examples in each camp.

 

Sheffield is a good prospect but his range of possible outcomes is pretty broad, and most of them aren't better than Paxton.

  • Like 5
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

How good Sheffield is compared to where Paxton was at the same age is irrelevant. If every pitcher who was better than Paxton at 22 went on to reach a higher ceiling than he has, MLB would have less scoring than MLS.

 

Pitchers don't follow linear development paths and are often derailed by injuries. TINSTAAPP is a phrase for a reason. Lucas Giolito was once the best pitching prospect in baseball and produced negative WAR in 2018. Ross Stripling was never thought of as a prospect and pitched like an ace. I could produce many more examples in each camp.

 

Sheffield is a good prospect but his range of possible outcomes is pretty broad, and most of them aren't better than Paxton.

You are right it doesn’t matter where one pitcher was or wasn’t at age 22. 

The clock starts in 2019 for Paxton & Sheffield... what happen in previous years doesn’t matter. 

We know Paxton is major league ready, we will learn if Sheffield is ready. 

 

Since James Paxton is a Yankee he is alright in my book. I sure hope he stays healthy and pitcheslike he has in the past. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

You are right it doesn’t matter where one pitcher was or wasn’t at age 22. 

The clock starts in 2019 for Paxton & Sheffield... what happen in previous years doesn’t matter. 

We know Paxton is major league ready, we will learn if Sheffield is ready. 

 

Since James Paxton is a Yankee he is alright in my book. I sure hope he stays healthy and pitcheslike he has in the past. 

 

 

hes not "major league ready" hes "major league top 5-10 ready.  its just a question of health.  again, he has the 4th best Fip in last 3 seasons...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great deal for the Yankees, not great for his fantasy value. Not horrible, but not good. He'll still be a very good starter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it boosts his value in win leagues at the very least. Not really sure how it hurts his value really. A lot of people throwing around the AL east thing but I mean at this point the only team I wouldn't like to start him against is Boston. He'll get a lot of O's Jays and Rays too all are pretty good matchups imo. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/20/2018 at 4:07 PM, this guy right here said:

 

 

What did Paxton prove at the major league level at 22yo? 

Claiming that a 22yo who has 2.2 major league innings has proven anything as RIDICULOUS!

He hasn't had a chance to prove anything. Zero results from zero opportunity does not equal unsuccessful.

 

Who cares about any of this? Who cares what Paxton proved in the Majors as a 22yo?? That is a ridiculous question. Who is the best pitcher to fuel the Yankees' drive for a WS title this year? That is the ONLY question that matters right now. And I'll take Paxton every time over Sheffield, who hasn't proven on the MLB level that he do that. Whether he has had the opportunity or not doesn't matter. The chances of Sheffield having a better season than Paxton are slim, and if he does, I will happily eat crow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s a good trade for both team.  Mariners weren’t going to playoffs this year with Paxton.  Yankees weren’t likely going to win a WS or make a deep playoff push with Sheffield front lining a staff.  Sheffield and co could pan out a year or 2 down road but if Paxton can help Yankees get to WS in next year or 2 it’s worth it to make the move.  Whether he can remains to be seen.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2018-11-21 at 9:41 PM, DidiFan said:

I think it boosts his value in win leagues at the very least. Not really sure how it hurts his value really. A lot of people throwing around the AL east thing but I mean at this point the only team I wouldn't like to start him against is Boston. He'll get a lot of O's Jays and Rays too all are pretty good matchups imo. 

Hurts his draft value because he is a Yankee and will get drafted too high, at least for my liking.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/24/2018 at 12:16 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

Who cares about any of this? Who cares what Paxton proved in the Majors as a 22yo?? That is a ridiculous question. Who is the best pitcher to fuel the Yankees' drive for a WS title this year? That is the ONLY question that matters right now. And I'll take Paxton every time over Sheffield, who hasn't proven on the MLB level that he do that. Whether he has had the opportunity or not doesn't matter. The chances of Sheffield having a better season than Paxton are slim, and if he does, I will happily eat crow. 

 what are the chances Paxton is healthy and effective come October? Slim... probably not much different than Sheffield's... 

 

but my main contention is that this is a poor fit with not only Paxton's health concerns but his 39:41 GB:FB ratio isn't going to mesh well in Yankee Stadium, although the high k rate will. Paxton has consistently been much better in Seattle benefiting from their comfy outfield, and now he's playing on a field the size of which you would expect to see Pablo Sanchez and the rest of the Backyard Baseball crew...

2018 splits, Home: 3.35 ERA, 0.99 whip... Away: 4.24 ERA, 1.22 whip... woof. 

 

I don't have much faith for an injury riddled 30 year old with constant inflammation and soresness ailments to magically become a healthy contributor. 

 

As a dynasty owner I'll be selling hard this off-season and the Yankee hype should help even though it shouldn't. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/19/2018 at 11:11 PM, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

 

Dude has really bad control. At best Paxton is what Sheff becomes. You do this trade 100 percent of the time

Yeah but Paxton is an injury riddled 30 year old who has benefited greatly in Safeco.... so if Sheffield can be a Paxton in his 20s and give you more than 140 innings in the big leagues, that's a heck of a lot better. 

 

Paxton is 30 and thrown 140 innings just once with 160 this year. And it's not freak injuries, it's constant inflammation and muscle strains... last year was supposed to be different with his new non-dairy diet, but just more injuries and inconsistency. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my tiers/rankings I dropped him a bit after the trade.  Looking at his splits, he does not have a huge sample vs AL east, whats interesting is despite being  apitcher in the american league, unless Im reading wrong, it doesnt look like he has ever pitched at Fenway.  

 

He had a decent ERA in 2018, I could see it rise over 4 in that division and home park especially.  =Honestly the division as a whole probably isnt what it was the last 4-5 years where it seems every team was a contender, Baltimore and Toronto are more in rebuild, so facing those lineups in their park, isnt what it was a few years back.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Couple of thoughts...

 

1. People are forgetting to count minor league innings when saying that Paxton has only topped 140 innings once.  He's still injury prone but not as bad as what people are making it out to be.  He has topped 170 innings twice and averaged ~160 innings since 2016.  I think 120-180 should be the expected range.

 

combined min/maj innings

2013:  170

2014:  87

2015:  74

2016:  172

2017: 140

2018: 160

 

 

 

2. Comparing Sheffield to Paxton at age 22 is fine.  Using that comparison to extrapolate out a 2017 Paxton prediction for Sheffield is a bit nuts.  2017 Paxton was not a very probable outcome for 2012 Paxton. 2012 Paxton was being projected as a  potential future#3 pitcher and behind Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker among Mariners prospects.  So I'm fine with the comparison, but the conclusion that should be drawn is that Sheffield is potentially a future #3.

 

Paxton made a mechanical change in the minors in his late 20's that dramatically improved his control and velocity.  It's not safe to assume Sheffield will make a similar discovery.  Paxton is the exception more than the rule.  Most likely result for pitchers with young Paxton's profiles is probably a #4-5 or in the pen.  We always hold out hope that every pitcher will reachh his ceiling, but the past tells us otherwise

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, elrey said:

30 years old is old now apparently

Ancient. He'll be the Hurry-cane spokesperson in no time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Age curves are more defined for hitters. I wouldnt worry as much bout pitching age.

Edited by Slatykamora
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, mi26 said:

Thoughts on having Paxton as #1 in h2h 5x5 categories?

I prefer him as a #2 for sure but if he could somehow stay healthy this year then you should be sitting pretty still

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

I prefer him as a #2 for sure but if he could somehow stay healthy this year then you should be sitting pretty still

Thanks just debating when to draft a SP in a h2h 5x5 category. I see him sitting there round 4/5 ish as a first SP....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, mi26 said:

Thanks just debating when to draft a SP in a h2h 5x5 category. I see him sitting there round 4/5 ish as a first SP....

 

you can do better in round 4 or 5.  Bauer, Buehler, Corbin, carrasco, even flaherty should be ahead of paxton IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this is the year when he finally breaks out and becomes one of the top starting pitchers in baseball. The stuff is there to give him that cy young type season and a new team might finally push him to greatness even though his new ballpark is a downgrade. I took him over Bauer as my SP2 and i hope i made the right call

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.