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James Paxton 2019 Outlook

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Bottom line at this juncture is you can’t start him, especially with a second beat down at the hands of Boston coming later this week.

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50 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Bottom line at this juncture is you can’t start him, especially with a second beat down at the hands of Boston coming later this week.

Yeah he is nuclear waste at this point.  No you can start him vs. anyone in fantasy imo.  And given his Jekyll and Hyde record this year of some good starts followed by some really awful ones, you likely will not trust the guy even if he has 2 good outings in a row.  It is a vicious trap in fantasy.  Start him he gets hammered...sit him he plays well for awhile...start him again, he gets hammered again.

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On 7/28/2019 at 11:26 PM, secretagentman said:

Yeah he is nuclear waste at this point.  No you can start him vs. anyone in fantasy imo.  And given his Jekyll and Hyde record this year of some good starts followed by some really awful ones, you likely will not trust the guy even if he has 2 good outings in a row.  It is a vicious trap in fantasy.  Start him he gets hammered...sit him he plays well for awhile...start him again, he gets hammered again.

Disagree

ive been doing this long enough to know this is when he throws a gem 

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Very solid outing tonight. ESP considering how Boston handled him last time out. Gets the win with 6ks in 6ip 3.00era but most importantly a 0.83 whip. Didn’t like the three walks but besides that he was very decent tonight. I would feel more confident if he could string together 4-5 of these type of starts but considering the opposition, I feel this was a good game to build momentum from. 

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Anyone that is fooled by this Boston outing and starts him VS Balt  thinking he is going to start living up to expectations  deserves the beating they about to get on their ratios.

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Impressive outing last night, but for me he's a can't start but can't drop. So basically he's just a wasted roster spot atm. Hopefully he'll turn things around...

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On 7/31/2019 at 12:24 AM, mevins31 said:

Disagree

ive been doing this long enough to know this is when he throws a gem 

Good call Mevins.

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6 hours ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

Anyone that is fooled by this Boston outing and starts him VS Balt  thinking he is going to start living up to expectations  deserves the beating they about to get on their ratios.

You sound pretty bitter that a guy you completely gave up on and "dropped 6 weeks ago" just had one of his best starts of the year in one of his toughest matchups

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31 minutes ago, cs3 said:

You sound pretty bitter that a guy you completely gave up on and "dropped 6 weeks ago" just had one of his best starts of the year in one of his toughest matchups

Actually, if you watched the game, he made a few mistakes on hangers\location and got away with them.  Obviously was decent, but he was not lights out by any stretch.  I would still be weary of starting him as we have seen this before and then he goes and gets hammered.

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What starting pitcher doesn’t get away with a few mistakes on hangers/location in a good start?

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One reason for renewed optimism is Paxton’s success coincided with a perceptible change in his pitch mix: he leaned far less on his heater/cutter in this one, opting for more sliders and curves (and even a few effective changeups).  That might have been the adjustment he needed to make to succeed down the stretch this season.

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

You sound pretty bitter that a guy you completely gave up on and "dropped 6 weeks ago" just had one of his best starts of the year in one of his toughest matchups

Not bitter at all just trying to help out those still stuck in the notion that this guy is any good. and I didn't have to suffer his last 2 starts before this one 3.1 innings 4 er and 4 innings 6 ers so I am quit happy I dropped the bum. IF Balt pounds him next week don't say I didn't warn ya.

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1 minute ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

Not bitter at all just trying to help out those still stuck in the notion that this guy is any good. and I didn't have to suffer his last 2 starts before this one 3.1 innings 4 er and 4 innings 6 ers so I am quit happy I dropped the bum. IF Balt pounds him next week don't say I didn't warn ya.

But you’re not helping by claiming he isn’t “any good” - he is quite good.  When he’s on and right, he’s one of the most dominant starters in the game, just in terms of pure stuff.  And he may have found an adjustment that will make him a more consistently dependable starter moving forward.

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47 minutes ago, BMcP said:

But you’re not helping by claiming he isn’t “any good” - he is quite good.  When he’s on and right, he’s one of the most dominant starters in the game, just in terms of pure stuff.  And he may have found an adjustment that will make him a more consistently dependable starter moving forward.

When he is "on and right" which he is for a very very brief time frame just enough to tease you and fool you into thinking he  may have found a adjustment that will make him a more consistent dependable starter moving forward. You get your hopes up start him and BAM he pulls the wool over your eyes. 

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38 minutes ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

When he is "on and right" which he is for a very very brief time frame just enough to tease you and fool you into thinking he  may have found a adjustment that will make him a more consistent dependable starter moving forward. You get your hopes up start him and BAM he pulls the wool over your eyes. 

This is just flat out wrong and proof that you have no idea what you're talking about. You're letting impatience and recency bias cloud your reasoning rather than relying on actual data.

Here is Paxton's line since 2016:spacer.png

The K rate, K-BB%, and FIP are all elite. He's a legitimate top of rotation starter when healthy. Im just not convinced he's been healthy in months.

Edited by cs3
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51 minutes ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

When he is "on and right" which he is for a very very brief time frame just enough to tease you and fool you into thinking he  may have found a adjustment that will make him a more consistent dependable starter moving forward. You get your hopes up start him and BAM he pulls the wool over your eyes. 

Out of curiosity: why draft him if you think he is nothing more than a talentless tease?

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

What starting pitcher doesn’t get away with a few mistakes on hangers/location in a good start?

The good ones that do not make any or very few at all lol.  Add a couple of Hrs to the line on a couple of hangers (and he hung more than a couple) and the line would not looks so pretty.  Yeah his pitch mix was a lot different in this game, so we shall see if that is an adjustment that holds some meaning or a transitory event and hitters adapt\he reverts to be the inconsistent guy he was before.  All I am saying is he was not lights out many any stretch, got a little lucky and if you conclude that he has found it again and is going to be a reliable starter the rest of the way based off it, I think you are seeing what you want to see and being overly optimistic based on one start.

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2 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

The good ones that do not make any or very few at all lol.  Add a couple of Hrs to the line on a couple of hangers (and he hung more than a couple) and the line would not looks so pretty.  Yeah his pitch mix was a lot different in this game, so we shall see if that is an adjustment that holds some meaning or a transitory event and hitters adapt\he reverts to be the inconsistent guy he was before.  All I am saying is he was not lights out many any stretch, got a little lucky and if you conclude that he has found it again and is going to be a reliable starter the rest of the way based off it, I think you are seeing what you want to see and being overly optimistic based on one start.

The good ones that don’t make mistakes put up dominant starts - not merely “good” ones.  And even they don’t do that game after game.

Plus, I’m just passing along info - info that may point to a new stretch of improved effectiveness.  Pointing out that he made a few mistakes and got lucky doesn’t really  relate to that point.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Out of curiosity: why draft him if you think he is nothing more than a talentless tease?

Its because I have been dealing with him for years. Yes the talent is there in spades but the domination NEVER COMES. Just when he starts to get his act together he gets hurt like he did this year again.  or he blows up and gives up a bunch of runs and hits.  I totally lost any trust in him to give me 3-4  CY winning pitching starts in a row. He gives you a bunch of mediocrity. 

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5 minutes ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

Its because I have been dealing with him for years. Yes the talent is there in spades but the domination NEVER COMES. Just when he starts to get his act together he gets hurt like he did this year again.  or he blows up and gives up a bunch of runs and hits.  I totally lost any trust in him to give me 3-4  CY winning pitching starts in a row. He gives you a bunch of mediocrity. 

I must say, that’s some odd decision-making if you feel like he just provides primarily mediocrity year after year.  Just trade him if you don’t want him: I guarantee someone in your league would give you something useful in return.

Edited by BMcP

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7 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

The good ones that do not make any or very few at all lol.  Add a couple of Hrs to the line on a couple of hangers (and he hung more than a couple) and the line would not looks so pretty.  Yeah his pitch mix was a lot different in this game, so we shall see if that is an adjustment that holds some meaning or a transitory event and hitters adapt\he reverts to be the inconsistent guy he was before.  All I am saying is he was not lights out many any stretch, got a little lucky and if you conclude that he has found it again and is going to be a reliable starter the rest of the way based off it, I think you are seeing what you want to see and being overly optimistic based on one start.

That's what I am trying to say. Don't be fooled by this start .it wasn't all that good and when he gets blown up next week cause you believe in him then don't cry to me I tried to warn ya.

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2 minutes ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

That's what I am trying to say. Don't be fooled by this start .it wasn't all that good and when he gets blown up next week cause you believe in him then don't cry to me I tried to warn ya.

Rest assured, no one will come crying to you.

If you honestly believe his most recent start wasn’t all that good, against one of the most potent lineups in baseball, I really don’t know what to tell you.

Edited by BMcP
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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I must say, that’s some odd decision-making if you feel like he just provides primarily mediocrity year after year.  Just trade him if you don’t want him: I guarantee someone in your league would give you something useful in return.

I dropped him to waiver wire 6 weeks ago I am done with the pile of crap. Yes another team picked him up and they got 3.1 innings 4 er and they got 4 innings and 7 in the 2 starts before this one. They wish they got mediocrity

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