joebaker23

Damien Williams 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

Message added by tonycpsu

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

Message added by tonycpsu

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2 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Looking at who started in 2015 when West and Ware were emerging, it does appear West got starts when he returned from injury ( I somewhat remember being annoyed by this bc Ware was better ) however the following year in 2016 Ware was starter of every game outside of one he was injured and didnt play.  

 

I feel Damien keeps getting the starts here but would love to know who is getting the majority of practice reps but we depend on silly beat writers for that. 

Are you curious for week 17 purposes or 2019? If the latter then grab a beverage and wait and see

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21 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

Are you curious for week 17 purposes or 2019? If the latter then grab a beverage and wait and see

 

Yes I have a week 17 final where I had Hunt originally and now Im stuck with both.

 

SO because now I am interested I dug even deeper into the 2015 box scores lol.  After JC went down West was defacto alpha dog RB, getting 20 carries and 4 ish targets basically what JC was getting and was spelled by 2 other RB ( one caught a few passes the other had a few carries - sound familiar right ).  Then West gets injured and Ware was given the 20ish carries 4 ish targets and was spelled by 2 other RB just like previously mentioned.  West returns and West/Ware split 20ish carries and 4 ish targets for two games with 1 other RB getting 1ish carry( West starting) and Ware seemingly gets injured.  Following week West gets 2/3 of the 20 ish carries and again shares the left overs with 2 other RB.  Ware returns following week but West continues to start and get 2/3 of the 20ish carries.  Final week of the season West starts but split 30 RB carries with Ware but Ware did infact get 3 more carries but 0 targets to West's 1 target.  West starts both KC playoff games but Ware plays 70% of the snaps in game 1 ( once he got hot and started to roll ) however in the second playoff game only West and Knile Davis are used while Ware plays 8 snaps on special teams only (???).  Ware is starter following year after.

 

Things that make you go hmmm but one thing seems certain once a RB emerges that AR likes to use they keep getting use even if they somewhat share the load its still close to 50%. 

Edited by Zak0221

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Okay my trip down the internet worm hole is complete. 

 

Sorry that this is so much about Spencer Ware but I feel it is somewhat important for the DWill owners to understand the AR history of RBs while at the Chiefs. 

 

Ware basically has gotten injured each time he's had an opportunity outside of the 2016 season where he started 14 games.  He got injured after getting his first two career starts and was seemingly not healthy the rest of the season, missing the Chiefs Divisional Playoff loss entirely despite playing 70% of the snaps in the Wild Card game the previous week ( West started and played 30% of snaps).  Ware then missed one game to injury in 2016 ( Week 17 he was rested for his second missed game of season ) and in 2017 he tore his PCL missing the entire season.  Kareem Hunt happens and Ware returned to a backup role in 2018 where he got 1 start getting injured yet again which is where we are now after Damien Williams has stolen the KC RB show.  

 

More history as Ware continued to start as Jamaal Charles eventually did return in 2016 but he never was healthy enough to regain his starting role. The team drafted Hunt following year after JC was cut.  Spencer had been on the Chiefs practice squad who was then signed after JC tore his ACL the second time.  Ware came out of no where when he exploded onto the scene after West went down himself but obviously made an impression on Reid.  After showcasing what he could do when featured he was the main Chiefs RB in AR's eyes until he tore his PCL and Hunt became that guy. 

 

Maybe Damien has Big Red's eyes twinkling again like when he saw Hunt hit the ground running or Ware when he had his original big chance and this contract is a changing of the guard. It seems Ware's health has caused him to lose his job maybe twice now. 

Edited by Zak0221
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35 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Okay my trip down the internet worm hole is complete. 

 

Sorry that this is so much about Spencer Ware but I feel it is somewhat important for the DWill owners to understand the AR history of RBs while at the Chiefs. 

 

Ware basically has gotten injured each time he's had an opportunity outside of the 2016 season where he started 14 games.  He got injured after getting his first two career starts and was seemingly not healthy the rest of the season, missing the Chiefs Divisional Playoff loss entirely despite playing 70% of the snaps in the Wild Card game the previous week ( West started and played 30% of snaps).  Ware then missed one game to injury in 2016 ( Week 17 he was rested for his second missed game of season ) and in 2017 he tore his PCL missing the entire season.  Kareem Hunt happens and Ware returned to a backup role in 2018 where he got 1 start getting injured yet again which is where we are now after Damien Williams has stolen the KC RB show.  

 

More history as Ware continued to start as Jamaal Charles eventually did return in 2016 but he never was healthy enough to regain his starting role. The team drafted Hunt following year after JC was cut.  Spencer had been on the Chiefs practice squad who was then signed after JC tore his ACL the second time.  Ware came out of no where when he exploded onto the scene after West went down himself but obviously made an impression on Reid.  After showcasing what he could do when featured he was the main Chiefs RB in AR's eyes until he tore his PCL and Hunt became that guy. 

 

Maybe Damien has Big Red's eyes twinkling again like when he saw Hunt hit the ground running or Ware when he had his original big chance and this contract is a changing of the guard. It seems Ware's health has caused him to lose his job maybe twice now. 

when in doubt follow the money/team investment man

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Just now, DezedandConfused said:

2 years 8 mil isn't much investment tho

it's significantly more than Ware's $1.1 annual (which includes his signing bonus)......and/or Darrel Williams' $485k salary.....correct?

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I read Ware will be a free agent next year. It sounds like they have picked the horse they want between the two. This doesn't preclude them from drafting a RB as well to provide Williams some comp, but you would think their top picks will be spent on defense.

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1 minute ago, Joe Odam said:

it's significantly more than Ware's $1.1 annual (which includes his signing bonus)......and/or Darrel Williams' $485k salary.....correct?

True, I just hope they dont draft a Rb.

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2 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

IMO this extension changes my opinion A LOT. I now fully believe they will spend a mid round pick on a rb with Damien serving as the "world be off season free agent signing". With that said, there's little reason to believe that the Chiefs don't feel they can get 2 strong years out of Damien. He's proven to be a flawless system fit. Immediate dynasty arrow STRAIGHT UP

 

 

1 minute ago, Ace_King said:

I read Ware will be a free agent next year. It sounds like they have picked the horse they want between the two. This doesn't preclude them from drafting a RB as well to provide Williams some comp, but you would think their top picks will be spent on defense.

 

1 minute ago, DezedandConfused said:

True, I just hope they dont draft a Rb.

see my quoted post above. I fully anticipate that they will now draft a rb (likely with a middle round pick) BUT this is the absolute best case scenario for DWill's keeper value. He'd have the edge over a rookie in 90% of potential situations

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6 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

 

 

see my quoted post above. I fully anticipate that they will now draft a rb (likely with a middle round pick) BUT this is the absolute best case scenario for DWill's keeper value. He'd have the edge over a rookie in 90% of potential situations

Yeah I'd expect him to be a workhorse for at least next season.

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2 hours ago, Ace_King said:

FWIW the Kansas City star article refers to him as the replacement for Hunt. Link

I wouldn’t be surprised in the least. Provided he beats out the competition in camp next year it’s his job to lose now. Reading up on Damien, it appears he’s a real professional with an incredible work ethic who just needed the right opportunity 

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all the DWill dynasty truthers just need to hope he continues to show himself well through the post season and he he could in fact be the short term future at rb for the Chiefs. I'm far from the only one who thinks this way.

Edited by Joe Odam
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16 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:
all the DWill dynasty truthers just need to hope he continues to show himself well through the post season and he he could in fact be the short term future at rb for the Chiefs. I'm far from the only one who thinks this way.

 

Trolling aside, i do believe hes the short term answer, if anyone is playing week 17.  You start him with confidence, especially in ppr.

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is DWill a 1st round pick next year if the Chiefs dont sign a known RB and is the starter in preseason still? i say yes....

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20 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

is DWill a 1st round pick next year if the Chiefs dont sign a known RB and is the starter in preseason still? i say yes....

 

Good question. I suspect he would be a mid to late second rounder. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing and was being picked at the end of the first round/early second round. I doubt he goes higher than Hunt did. The concern with Damien Williams would be that he is a flash in the pan. We have seen journeymen RBs emerge as fantasy forces before and then quickly flame out (Alex Collins is a prime recent example, Christine Michael is another name that comes to mind). I think that would keep his cost low (for a Reid lead RB). 

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12 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

Good question. I suspect he would be a mid to late second rounder. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing and was being picked at the end of the first round/early second round. I doubt he goes higher than Hunt did. The concern with Damien Williams would be that he is a flash in the pan. We have seen journeymen RBs emerge as fantasy forces before and then quickly flame out (Alex Collins is a prime recent example, Christine Michael is another name that comes to mind). I think that would keep his cost low (for a Reid lead RB). 

The Williams situation reminds me a lot of Rashad Jennings. A backup who was commonly thought of as a “JAG” type,  was drafted in the 7th (Williams UDFA), stuck in a complimentary role behind MJD in Jax and DMC in Oakland before getting his shot on a cheap deal for the Giants. 

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42 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

The Williams situation reminds me a lot of Rashad Jennings. A backup who was commonly thought of as a “JAG” type,  was drafted in the 7th (Williams UDFA), stuck in a complimentary role behind MJD in Jax and DMC in Oakland before getting his shot on a cheap deal for the Giants. 

 

That's another good comparison. Jennings wasn't that good in New York, other than a solid 2015 season but he was 29-31 years old as a starter in New York while Williams will be 27 so hopefully Williams can fare better. 

 

I think at this point is is likely that Williams will enter the season as the starter. It is unlikely the Chiefs spend a high pick on a RB. The larger threat to him being the opening day starter is they sign one of the free agent RBs (like Ingram) but whether that threat materialized will be known long before draft day. 

 

The risk with drafting him would be that, if in fact he is a JAG, he gets surpassed during the season by a rookie or the other veteran RB they will roster (whether Ware or someone else) like Collins was by Edwards this year. The upside of course is what we have seen the past two games.

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"Is Damien Williams a first rounder?" he asked himself in earnest. He was just as surprised by that question as he was to learn that he was not dreaming when he pinched himself. 

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