tonycpsu

Jean Segura 2019 Outlook

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54 minutes ago, ebsports said:

 

Hamstrings are always somewhat unpredictable, so take that for what it's worth, especially when it comes to his SB's.

That said, the Phillies have said it's 'mild' in nature and as of now, don't intend to put him on the IL so it sounds like he'll be back in the somewhat near future, all things considered.

No specific numbers to back this up, but it seems like 75% of the time a hamstring injury is minor and won't require a DL stint....... there's a DL stint anyway. With Kingery there, I wish they'd get on with it, and be cautious. 

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

No specific numbers to back this up, but it seems like 75% of the time a hamstring injury is minor and won't require a DL stint....... there's a DL stint anyway. With Kingery there, I wish they'd get on with it, and be cautious. 

You do know the Phillies can backdate an injury 

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2 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

No specific numbers to back this up, but it seems like 75% of the time a hamstring injury is minor and won't require a DL stint....... there's a DL stint anyway. With Kingery there, I wish they'd get on with it, and be cautious. 

Jean has battled hamstring stuff a ton over the years.  He’s reached the Chipper Jones status of usually being able to determine exactly how long he’ll be out based on how it feels due to having so many.  Hopefully gets back Saturday to get a few games in at Coors.

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11 hours ago, shakestreet said:

You do know the Phillies can backdate an injury 

I play this game called fantasy baseball, and it doesn’t allow me to backdate injuries. It’s a lot of fun though. 

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Okay, so he got nailed in the brim of his helmet, but they took him out as a precaution.  From the videos on twitter, I’d say that he is one incredibly lucky individual.

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He seems to get hit in the head a lot 

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The Phillies discussed retaliation, then they looked at Marlins lineup and realized nobody is even worth plunking. 

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Is he going to start running anytime soon? Or should we expect closer to 10 SB than 20 this year?

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9 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Is he going to start running anytime soon? Or should we expect closer to 10 SB than 20 this year?

 

Batting ahead of Bryce and Rhys so probably 10. 

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18 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

Batting ahead of Bryce and Rhys so probably 10. 

 

I agree.

I said 10 steals some weeks ago and some ppl didn't like it.

It's disappointing but from real baseball perspective it makes sense.

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On 4/1/2019 at 5:35 PM, papasmurf said:

It doesnt look like he gonna run much at all in front of harper and hoskins. Will he even break ten?

Damn you’re right 

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Hopefully the average and runs scored make up for it. I’ll take a .300 110/15/10/65 season I suppose. 

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It's always amazing to me that incredibly talented (and incredibly well-paid) athletes often cannot be bothered to put forth even a modicum of consistent, dedicated effort on each and every play.  I'm not talking about pedal-to-the-medal-guaranteed-to-get-injured-all-out effort, I'm talking about just talking about ordinary, professional "hustle."  

Seguara didn't bother to run out a pop-up and as a result McCutchen gets caught in a stupid, "should never have happened" rundown, blows out his knee, he's lost for the rest of this season and maybe a big chunk of the next season.  

Phillies are a play-off team at the moment.  I have to wonder if there's going to be any fallout from this, specifically as it relates to Segura's performance.  Does being utterly lazy and indifferent, and getting a teammate catastrophically injured, play with your psyche at all?  I wouldn't be surprised if Segura either gives it 110% for the rest of the season or that this screws him up mentally.

Will be interesting to watch as a Segura owner.  

Edited by Overlord

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4 minutes ago, Overlord said:

It's always amazing to me that incredibly talented (and incredibly well-paid) athletes often cannot be bothered to put forth even a modicum of consistent, dedicated effort on each and every play.  I'm not talking about pedal-to-the-medal-guaranteed-to-get-injured-all-out effort, I'm talking about just talking about ordinary, professional "hustle."  

Seguara didn't bother to run out a pop-up and as a result McCutchen gets caught in a stupid, "should never have happened" rundown, blows out his knee, he's lost for the rest of this season and maybe a big chunk of the next season.  

Phillies are a play-off team at the moment.  I have to wonder if there's going to be any fallout from this, specifically as it relates to Segura's performance.  Does being utterly lazy and indifferent, and getting a teammate catastrophically injured, play with your psyche at all?  I wouldn't be surprised if Segura either gives it 110% for the rest of the season or that this screws him up mentally.

Will be interesting to watch as a Segura owner.  

Didn't Segura have problems last year with hustling with Seattle? Seem to remember reading about that this offseason.  

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1 minute ago, Overlord said:

Seguara didn't bother to run out a pop-up and as a result McCutchen gets caught in a stupid, "should never have happened" rundown, blows out his knee, he's lost for the rest of this season and maybe a big chunk of the next season.   

 

The causation really doesn't work this way.  You could just as easily (and wrongly) attribute it to many other things that led up to the injury, which is another way of saying you can't attribute it to any of them.  This Athletic piece lays out some of the logic here -- I'll quote the relevant bit for the subscriptionally impaired:

Quote

Then, opportunity manifested in a botched play. What if McCutchen had not drawn his league-leading 43rd walk to begin the game? What if the infield dirt was not still damp from a pregame watering?  What if second baseman Ian Kinsler didn’t know the ball would plop on the dirt right in front of him? What if someone with less experience had started at second base for the Padres? What if Eric Hosmer, the first baseman, and Machado, at shortstop, were not yelling at Kinsler to let the ball fall? “Everybody was on top of it,” Kinsler said. What if Segura had not been 2 for his last 27 and frustrated to make another out? What if he hadn’t fallen?

“Whenever you get the opportunity to do that, you’ve got to take advantage of it,” Kinsler said. “Segura kind of fell down in the box a little bit, took his time getting out, and we had an opportunity to get two (outs), so got to take advantage of it.”

McCutchen didn’t have to leave the bag, but he did. “I didn’t know where Jean was,” McCutchen said. “I didn’t know he wasn’t close. Had I known he wasn’t close, I would have stayed on the bag and stood there.” He didn’t have to extend the run-down, but he did.

 

That's a lot of what-ifs, including one in the last paragraph that could arguably be blamed on Cutch.  Segura slipping in the box wasn't a lack of hustle, it's just something that happens sometimes.  You can blame him for that, but you can blame a lot of other things.

And you have to also remember that hustle can hurt the team as well.  Ben Lindbergh dug deep into the old canard that Robinson Cano didn't hustle, and found that at most he lost a few singles a year from it, and that he actually hurt himself trying to leg out a double, meaning there was actually negative value from hustling.  Obviously the math gets fuzzy there, but the idea that players should always go at 100% even if it increases their risk of injury is a severe misunderstanding of the difference in value between a few extra singles and missing a star player for weeks at a time.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The causation really doesn't work this way.  You could just as easily (and wrongly) attribute it to many other things that led up to the injury, which is another way of saying you can't attribute it to any of them.  This Athletic piece lays out some of the logic here -- I'll quote the relevant bit for the subscriptionally impaired:

 

That's a lot of what-ifs, including one in the last paragraph that could arguably be blamed on Cutch.  Segura slipping in the box wasn't a lack of hustle, it's just something that happens sometimes.  You can blame him for that, but you can blame a lot of other things.

And you have to also remember that hustle can hurt the team as well.  Ben Lindbergh dug deep into the old canard that Robinson Cano didn't hustle, and found that at most he lost a few singles a year from it, and that he actually hurt himself trying to leg out a double, meaning there was actually negative value from hustling.  Obviously the math gets fuzzy there, but the idea that players should always go at 100% even if it increases their risk of injury is a severe misunderstanding of the difference in value between a few extra singles and missing a star player for weeks at a time.

 

Jean Segura's lack of hustle, to use a phrase from my old law school textbooks, was absolutely a proximate cause of the injury.  Was it the ONLY proximate cause?  No.  But to try to dismiss it as just one of a billion "butterfly effect" factors is overly reductive.  

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29 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Jean Segura's lack of hustle, to use a phrase from my old law school textbooks, was absolutely a proximate cause of the injury.  Was it the ONLY proximate cause?  No.  But to try to dismiss it as just one of a billion "butterfly effect" factors is overly reductive.   

 

Nonsense. This isn't an automobile accident, it's a game of baseball.  Invoking the legal doctrine of proximate cause is silly.  Cutch was the one responsible for keeping himself from being hurt on the field of play.  Segura falling down and then not immediately sprinting as fast as he could wasn't a negligent act that he could reasonably foresee could lead to McCutchen getting hurt.  Every athlete puts their body at risk on virtually every play, but there are thousands of plays that don't end in injury, and many plays where everyone hustles but still someone gets hurt.  That this one play ended a certain way doesn't at all support the idea that Segura is responsible for Cutch's injury.

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45 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Nonsense. This isn't an automobile accident, it's a game of baseball.  Invoking the legal doctrine of proximate cause is silly.  Cutch was the one responsible for keeping himself from being hurt on the field of play.  Segura falling down and then not immediately sprinting as fast as he could wasn't a negligent act that he could reasonably foresee could lead to McCutchen getting hurt.  Every athlete puts their body at risk on virtually every play, but there are thousands of plays that don't end in injury, and many plays where everyone hustles but still someone gets hurt.  That this one play ended a certain way doesn't at all support the idea that Segura is responsible for Cutch's injury.

 

It amazes me how you cant see that Segura not hustling (despite his initial slip) played a MAJOR role McCutchens injury. "Cutch was the one responsible for keeping himself from being hurt on the field of play" is just a useless argument. Your, in turn, saying that one players actions - no matter how reckless or unadvised - cant play a role in what subsequently happens to another player. This simply isnt true. Common sense SHOULD tell you in this case that if Segura hustles than the 2bman would never have let the ball drop to turn a double play and McCutchen would never have been put in that position. To quote Overlord "Was it the ONLY proximate cause?  No.  But to try to dismiss it as just one of a billion "butterfly effect" factors is overly reductive.".

Edited by Dirty Little Birdie
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1 hour ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

 

It amazes me how you cant see that Segura not hustling (despite his initial slip) played a MAJOR role McCutchens injury. "Cutch was the one responsible for keeping himself from being hurt on the field of play" is just a useless argument. Your, in turn, saying that one players actions - no matter how reckless or unadvised - cant play a role in what subsequently happens to another player. This simply isnt true. Common sense SHOULD tell you in this case that if Segura hustles than the 2bman would never have let the ball drop to turn a double play and McCutchen would never have been put in that position. To quote Overlord "Was it the ONLY proximate cause?  No.  But to try to dismiss it as just one of a billion "butterfly effect" factors is overly reductive.".

 

Was it a “but for cause”? Yes.  But a lot of things were.  Proximate cause is much different.

To pull out more legalese, it wasn’t a “harm within the risk” of Segura’s actions, and therefore not the proximate cause.  You can’t foresee someone getting hurt because someone doesn’t hustle.  It’s just as likely that a player hustling could cause another to get hurt.

It was just bad luck.

 

Edited by The Waker
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1 hour ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Is he done being a 20+ SB threat? What do you guys think?

 

Steals can come in bunches, so I wouldn't say he's done as a threat, but I have certainly made arrangements to find steals elsewhere in the 60% of my leagues where he was a part of my SB strategy.  The hope was that the safe AVG floor and counting stats from what should have been an elite lineup would make up for most of that loss, but those numbers haven't materialized.   By this point everyone in your league probably knows they're not getting the steals, so the choices are to hang on and hope they come back or sell at a significant loss, since it's hard to sell a plus AVG without HR or SB upside.  I'm choosing to hold for now.

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