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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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You really think his master plan was to end up in Philadelphia? Philadephia? Maybe, but I think the Phillies made this happen because of the Summer they had. Kuddos to them

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I mean it’s obvious this was a money grab.  He did an A-Rod and wanted to one up Manny as highest priced contract (at time) of all time.  But at least the Phillies are a prime contender also so it could be spun that he was joining a contender.  But let’s not kid ourselves this guys egos so big he had to pass Stanton.  I like the deal for Phillies though.  Still young enough that the ceiling hasn’t been reached.  So at least there’s some upside and likely 7+ years worth of nice production. Unlike Angels who signed Corpse at age 32 coming off a year where his ops declined 100 points.  It was pretty clear he was on downside.  I still think Bryce has a few more mvp caliber seasons left at least.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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1 hour ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

Hes a great player. No doubt about it. My only point is that a 13 year deal will be dead at the end. Regardless of how much $25mil means in future money. 

10 for 330 would've been ok because he won't decline as much, but tack on 3 more years at the end for free and LOOK OUT, IT'LL BE DEAD AT THE END!

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All about the $$.  And Harper isn't even the best player OF'er in the league, let alone the best PLAYER in MLB.

He got what he wanted, and that's ultimately what it's all about for professional athletes these days.

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2 minutes ago, lavaman said:

All about the $$.  And Harper isn't even the best player OF'er in the league, let alone the best PLAYER in MLB.

Feel free to scroll back and Ctrl-F for "AAV", the phrase "opt out", and the number "13" to help illustrate how wrong this is.

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1 minute ago, lavaman said:

All about the $$.  And Harper isn't even the best player OF'er in the league, let alone the best PLAYER in MLB.

He got what he wanted, and that's ultimately what it's all about for professional athletes these days.

What’s Fish worth now?  400+?  

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These arguments are hilarious. Guy choses a team pushing to compete, in a field to generate more power, on a deal that locks him up for lifetime, that does not include a single opt-out.... but it's still all about the money. 

 

Machado's deal is way more of a money grubbing looking contract that Harper's. If you don't see that, I think you miss how AAV and Opt-Outs work. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Feel free to scroll back and Ctrl-F for "AAV", the phrase "opt out", and the number "13" to help illustrate how wrong this is.

Like I said, it's all about the $$.

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1 hour ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

A 40 year old Bryce Harper making $30mil a year....

 

1 hour ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

All those comps do is explain how bad these deals become. Name one guy on a  long-term deal that has played up to it all the way through...

You are looking at this from the wrong angle. Age 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 year old Bryce Harper at $25 Million per year provides far more profit margin than the loss of age 39 season at $25 million. That is without taking into account the all of the other economic factors and variables to calculate the true amount Philadelphia is making off of this contract. It sounds absurd, but Philadelphia would not sign a contract that they lost money on. They are going to profit off of this deal and Bryce is the one being exploited. That is just the facts of capitalism. 

You are asking for a long term deal that worked out and the only deals you can comp are those that are made PRIOR to a player entering their prime. Bryce is an outlier in that he made it to free agency after his age 26 season. That is extremely uncommon. You can look at Pujols and whoever else you want to look at. The fact you are ignoring is those deals are made for a player that is already firmly entrenched in their downside. Apples and oranges. 

I think you can argue that Harper's next 4-5 years are valued at $40-45 million per season. If he had the Trevor Bauer mindset he would have made a ton more cash year to year or KD style with a player option. But he wanted security and stability. Philly is an amazing place to raise a family and I am sure he will have kids and the school options in Philly are as good as it gets. You question that in other posts. Bryce allowed the Phils to buy out ALL of his remaining free agent years. And he didn't get opt-outs. I look at the contract and I think Bryce valued far more things outside of extracting the most money possible and signed a deal that he valued. You are getting sidetracked by the total dollar amount and you are just missing the context of what the big picture is by focusing on one thing. 

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16 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I mean it’s obvious this was a money grab.  He did an A-Rod and wanted to one up Manny as highest priced contract (at time) of all time.  But at least the Phillies are a prime contender also so it could be spun that he was joining a contender.  But let’s not kid ourselves this guys egos so big he had to pass Stanton.  I like the deal for Phillies though.  Still young enough that the ceiling hasn’t been reached.  So at least there’s some upside and likely 7+ years worth of nice production. Unlike Angels who signed Corpse at age 32 coming off a year where his ops declined 100 points.  It was pretty clear he was on downside.  I still think Bryce has a few more mvp caliber seasons left at least.  

 

This is a money grab compared to what? Asking people to not pay you money? 

Just now, lavaman said:

Like I said, it's all about the $$.

 

No, it isn't. An opt-out is all about the money. It gives you the ability to leave when YOU want, and retry the market to make the team pay more. By extending to 13 Years and eliminating the opt-out he makes the contract vastly more friendly to the Phillies than Machado's deal is to the Padres. I don't care that it is 13 years, a 25 AAV for Bryce Harper is fantastic, and he isn't going to be able to leave at 30 to test the market again. 

 

I don't see how people see this as an unfriendly contract to the team. This is an extremely team friendly contract that helps Philly do what it needs to do to compete and allows them to lock Bryce Harper into their line-up for his entire career. He'll get to hit 300-400 HRs in Citizen's Bank/In the Uniform. Fantastic. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

These arguments are hilarious. Guy choses a team pushing to compete, in a field to generate more power, on a deal that locks him up for lifetime, that does not include a single opt-out.... but it's still all about the money. 

 

Machado's deal is way more of a money grubbing looking contract that Harper's. If you don't see that, I think you miss how AAV and Opt-Outs work. 

 

 

Curious to where this puts Harper in your rankings? If you’d rather not reveal here I’d understand.

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5 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Curious to where this puts Harper in your rankings? If you’d rather not reveal here I’d understand.

 

I know you didn't ask me, but top 10 overall, top 4 OF.

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7 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Curious to where this puts Harper in your rankings? If you’d rather not reveal here I’d understand.

 

I mean I'm still fluctuating. But when you give out free rankings privacy is way less important ^.^. 

 

It is funny because three players I have similarly ranked are Judge, Harper, and Stanton, and they happen to be 19-21 right now on FantasyPros ADP. With the exception of perhaps Stanton, I see those players more towards the end of the first round as a unit than at the 19-21 range. Within that unit, I'm having a hard time choosing between Judge and Harper. I'll throw an ultimate hedge, and say that if Harper had signed in December, it would be Harper, but since it is February 28th, if I draft today I'm taking Judge, but as I get more comfortable with believing Harper is where he should be for the season, I may flip back. 

Edited by taobball
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10 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

This is a money grab compared to what? Asking people to not pay you money?  

Never insinuated that and if you read the rest of my post you’d see the rest of my thoughts.  But the ego of these players having to constantly one up each other is what will eventually be the domineo effect of sports.  Guy coming off a full season of hitting .249.  What this tell next class of free agents?  This was supposedly the market correction phase and Machado and Harper both eclipse 300+.  One guy coming off an embarrassing postseason where he was putrid and walked to first and spiked players.  The other coming off a full year hitting .249.  Yes, he’s young and has an enormous ceiling, great potential for Phillies.  But where does bubble burst now?  Trout and Betts easily MUCH MUCH MUCH better than Machado and Harper in every facet of the game of baseball.  Do they get 400+ now?  350+?  Where’s it end.  Was hoping Stanton’s stupid deal was end but apparently we aren’t close to see any end in sight of team ruining potential deals.  No 10+ year deal has come close to working out.  Arod and Rangers were putrid they paid him to go away, Cano did zero in Seattle to justify length of deal and almost immediately showed signs of decline, Pujols contract is probably biggest disgrace in sports.  In end the only ones who lose are fans who root for these teams that have to watch crap product for stretches from teams saddled with these atrocious contracts.  Angels single handily wasted Trout era with the Pujols deal.

Edited by Cmilne23

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I like how everyone slams players for wanting opt outs so if they're great they can be greedy or if they suck can be a drain on your franchise. Then you have someone who wants to build a long career with just one team... and people are trashing it. SMH

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Never insinuated that and if you read the rest of my post you’d see the rest of my thoughts.  But the ego of these players having to constantly one up each other is what will eventually be the domineo effect of sports.  Guy coming off a full season of hitting .249.  What this tell next class of free agents?  This was supposedly the market correction phase and Machado and Harper both eclipse 300+.  One guy coming off an embarrassing postseason where he was putrid and walked to first and spiked players.  The other coming off a full year hitting .249.  Yes, he’s young and has an enormous ceiling, great potential for Phillies.  But where does bubble burst now?  Trout and Betts easily MUCH MUCH MUCH better than Machado and Harper in every facet of the game of baseball.  Do they get 400+ now?  350+?  Where’s it end.  Was hoping Stanton’s stupid deal was end but apparently we aren’t close to see any end in sight of team ruining potential deals.  No 10+ year deal has come close to working out.  Arod and Rangers were putrid they paid him to go away, Cano did zero in Seattle to justify length of deal and almost immediately showed signs of decline, Pujols contract is probably biggest disgrace in sports.  In end the only ones who lose are fans who root for these teams that have to watch crap product for stretches from teams saddled with these atrocious products.  Angels single handily wasted Trout era with the Pujols deal.

I noticed you didn’t mention the revenue in the sport increasing, and wondering about the billionaire owners raking in the money “When will it end?” Do you question why so many jump right to “these players are overpaid!” and never consider the amount of the whole pie? As long as we’re watching on TV and buying $9 beers at the park, the money is there. It’s all simple capitalism.

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4 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I like how everyone slams players for wanting opt outs so if they're great they can be greedy or if they suck can be a drain on your franchise. Then you have someone who wants to build a long career with just one team... and people are trashing it. SMH

A-Rod got sent packing fast, Cano got sent packing fast, Pujols would of got sent packing if he wasn’t already in a body bag years ago, Stanton got sent packing fast.  In reality these guys aren’t signing these deals to build long careers.  Let’s just call a spade a spade, they’re doing it because they got the most money.  And as soon as their production dwindles or team slides, the team will actively try to ship them out of town.  These deals just don’t work out.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean I'm still fluctuating. But when you give out free rankings privacy is way less important ^.^. 

 

It is funny because three players I have similarly ranked are Judge, Harper, and Stanton, and they happen to be 19-21 right now on FantasyPros ADP. With the exception of perhaps Stanton, I see those players more towards the end of the first round as a unit than at the 19-21 range. Within that unit, I'm having a hard time choosing between Judge and Harper. I'll throw an ultimate hedge, and say that if Harper had signed in December, it would be Harper, but since it is February 28th, if I draft today I'm taking Judge, but as I get more comfortable with believing Harper is where he should be for the season, I may flip back. 

Thanks. Maybe I’m overreacting but this news vaults him into the late 1st for me. I’m pretty comfortable with his floor while I think he has top 3 overall upside. I think his lower ADP was reflective of uncertainty and possibility of landing in San Fran. I think he’ll end up shooting up the rankings soon.

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13 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

I know you didn't ask me, but top 10 overall, top 4 OF.

Always appreciate your input.

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5 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I like how everyone slams players for wanting opt outs so if they're great they can be greedy or if they suck can be a drain on your franchise. Then you have someone who wants to build a long career with just one team... and people are trashing it. SMH

 

Keep telling yourself that Bryce went to Philly to settle down, start a family, make the Phillies great, and live happily ever after. 

This was a cash grab. A la ARod in Texas. He never wanted to play there. They gave him the first mega deal and he forced a trade to NY. 

 

 

 

Edited by Stickfig13
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1 minute ago, Cmilne23 said:

Never insinuated that and if you read the rest of my post you’d see the rest of my thoughts.  But the ego of these players having to constantly one up each other is what will eventually be the domineo effect of sports.  Guy coming off a full season of hitting .249.  What this tell next class of free agents?  This was supposedly the market correction phase and Machado and Harper both eclipse 300+.  One guy coming off an embarrassing postseason where he was putrid and walked to first and spiked players.  The other coming off a full year hitting .249.  Yes, he’s young and has an enormous ceiling, great potential for Phillies.  But where does bubble burst now?  Trout and Betts easily MUCH MUCH MUCH better than Machado and Harper in every facet of the game of baseball.  Do they get 400+ now?  350+?  Where’s it end.  Was hoping Stanton’s stupid deal was end but apparently we aren’t close to see any end in sight of team ruining potential deals.  No 10+ year deal has come close to working out.  Arod and Rangers were putrid they paid him to go away, Cano did zero in Seattle to justify length of deal and almost immediately showed signs of decline, Pujols contract is probably biggest disgrace in sports.  In end the only ones who lose are fans who root for these teams that have to watch crap product for stretches from teams saddled with these atrocious products.  Angels single handily wasted Trout era with the Pujols deal.

 

See I am reading you I just don't agree. Is it ego to see increased revenues and expect contracts to go the same direction? People seem to complain about one side of the system or the other... but this IS the system. Suffer through the minors, deal with your 6 years of bull****, and do what you can to get what you can in the open market. This conflict will always exist. Teams can't tell Vlad Jr. that they're dropping is career earning potential by 30 Million dollars and expect it to not be a bit confrontational in 6 years. That's the system we have in place.

Harper hit .249. He was also top 10 in OBP, and top 15 in HRs. His expectations know no bounds. What's it tell Free Agent classes? That if your worst season is top 10 in OBP and top 15 in HRs and you have MVP potential and are 26 Years Old, get as much as you can out of the market. That's what it tells free agent classes. 

Trout + Betts arguments are again missing the entire point of both Harper's contract and his age relation to AAV. Trout and Betts will both be 2-3 Years older, which is highly significant when contracts are going into the ages beyond 32-34. Both will sign for a MUCH higher AAV than Harper if they come off these type of seasons in 2021, but it might not be that much more of a total value contract. That's how this marketplace works. The rumored 8/350 extension for Trout is still MILES more expensive than Harper's contract, because if you think the difference between 8/350 and 13/330 is 20 Million, you are missing the entire point of why I think this contract is a good one. The difference is 25 AAV and 43.75 AAV. That's the difference between having an 18 Million PER YEAR player on your team. 

Every single argument that focuses on Ego and Greed to me is ignoring one side. BOTH sides operate with EGO. BOTH sides operate with GREED. BOTH sides use the CBA and the tools they have at their disposal to get the best possible outcome for themselves. Bryce Harper operated fairly, in good faith, and took a team friendly deal to boot. He deserves no criticism about greed or ego for this, in my opinion. 

--

 

I don't understand people's arguments in regards to this contract. By adding opt-outs, or reducing years of team control, and by adding AAV, Harper could have made it harder on the Phillies. Instead, he spread the money across as many seasons as possible, committed his career to one organization, and said he didn't feel the need to test the market again no matter how good he performed. This is as team-friendly a structure as you're going to get for a deal, short of Bryce adding the last years as team options, which would be silly. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

A-Rod got sent packing fast, Cano got sent packing fast, Pujols would of got sent packing if he wasn’t already in a body bag years ago, Stanton got sent packing fast.  In reality these guys aren’t signing these deals to build long careers.  Let’s just call a spade a spade, they’re doing it because they got the most money.  And as soon as their production dwindles or team slides, the team will actively try to ship them out of town.  These deals just don’t work out.  

Difference is those players didn't make their teams division favorites when they signed. Harper is actually going to a good team that's NL east favorites now.

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8 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Never insinuated that and if you read the rest of my post you’d see the rest of my thoughts.  But the ego of these players having to constantly one up each other is what will eventually be the domineo effect of sports.  Guy coming off a full season of hitting .249.  What this tell next class of free agents?  This was supposedly the market correction phase and Machado and Harper both eclipse 300+.  One guy coming off an embarrassing postseason where he was putrid and walked to first and spiked players.  The other coming off a full year hitting .249.  Yes, he’s young and has an enormous ceiling, great potential for Phillies.  But where does bubble burst now?  Trout and Betts easily MUCH MUCH MUCH better than Machado and Harper in every facet of the game of baseball.  Do they get 400+ now?  350+?  Where’s it end.  Was hoping Stanton’s stupid deal was end but apparently we aren’t close to see any end in sight of team ruining potential deals.  No 10+ year deal has come close to working out.  Arod and Rangers were putrid they paid him to go away, Cano did zero in Seattle to justify length of deal and almost immediately showed signs of decline, Pujols contract is probably biggest disgrace in sports.  In end the only ones who lose are fans who root for these teams that have to watch crap product for stretches from teams saddled with these atrocious contracts.  Angels single handily wasted Trout era with the Pujols deal.

In this one post you are blending a lot of topics and cherry picking throughout. Batting average versus OBP...a sample size of about 5 games compared to multiple years of data....age of hitting free agency....body type....etc. etc. etc. Come on, no one cares about Manny's blips in the postseason. The dude is a horse that has balled out on offense and defense. Harper has been countered with shifts and he still gets on base at an elite clip. 

No, Betts isn't getting anywhere close to this. He is hitting free agency a year closer to his decline and he has a body type that isn't exactly screaming out that he can continue to hit for power. Altuve and his decline would put flags all over Mookie. Trout's first year of his new deal he will turn 30. Those are 3 golden years compared to Harper that his next team will miss out on. Yes, Trout is amazing. Yes, Trout is marketable. But very few humans have what Harper has. I think Trout will get a lot of money. 

Cano and Pujols were in their age 31 or 32 season of their new deals. Firmly entering the decline. Apples and oranges. Harper gets his 27, 28, 29, 30 year seasons in Philly. 

Honestly, I think your annoyance or frustration is not directed at these players and maybe the system that gives teams control of elite years at ridiculously discounted prices. And handicaps players from getting theirs while they wise up and no longer pay for downsides. You covered a lot in your post. Too much to respond to in micro and just hitting the macro topics. 

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7 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Difference is those players didn't make their teams division favorites when they signed. Harper is actually going to a good team that's NL east favorites now.

In hindsight, and hindsight is 20/20.  But all those teams were heavily hyped clubs outside of the Marlins who everyone knew still blowed chunks and frauded a community into a new stadium by pretending to be good, but that’s another story.  I would say, out of all these mega deals this is easily the best one.  I like the idea of paying a guy for what he could do, vs what he did do.  Often times these teams get sentimental keep guys around too long.  I fully believe Machado deal will be a disaster for Padres. 

Edited by Cmilne23

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