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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Difference is those players didn't make their teams division favorites when they signed. Harper is actually going to a good team that's NL east favorites now.

The difference with Cano and Pujols is that they were 31 or 32! Not 27! APPLES AND ORANGES! How is this concept of age so difficult to grasp? Not speaking at you @XxxOilOverloadxxX just quoting you to piggy back on your point. 

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(@thezing1 since we were talking about aging curves and Harper the other day)

 

I happened to catch a DynastyGuru release yesterday about a study they've been doing on examining certain statistics and aging curves. This is more or less why at the least Harper's statistical traits make me think he's a perfect candidate for smooth regression:

 table1-1-1024x969.png\

https://thedynastyguru.com/2019/02/27/aging-gracefully-approaching-aging-curves-and-advanced-stats-part-ii/

Just a beauty of a chart right here regardless. I almost started an aging curve thread just on behalf of this. 

But out of the eight metrics they surveyed, Isolated Power and BB% were retained significantly longer than any of the other surveyed metrics. In short, I think this "phenomenon" is caused by the worst parts of the aging curve affecting how well a hitter can hit balls OUTSIDE the zone / their comfort range. Players like Adam Jones or even going older and more elite, Vladimir Guerrero, who predicate themselves on a supernatural ability to hit balls that-- frankly-- no one should be able to are the ones that I think suffer the most direct and harsh regression. Even someone like Bryce who is very physical, with a good eye and the ability to generate torque into power, I think that I could see Bryce struggling in several areas of the game, but still having slash lines that look like .255 / .370 / .475 into his mid-to-late 30's, because ultimately I don't care what pitches he CAN or CAN NOT hit, but which of those he chooses to swing at, and how successful he is at that enterprise. 

Edited by taobball
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I absolutely LOVE the deal for Phillies. It absolutely doesn't matter what Harper has done for the Nationals, what matters is what he will do for the Phils. I have no problem betting on a few 40/.290/.380 seasons. 

Pretty ridiculous if you think these guys need to be worth their salaries each and every year of these deals. Obviously in all of the deals there will be a few seasons where you're paying for no production. The exact same thing can be said for teams profiting off players years 1-7, when they're making nothing but playing the best years of their careers. It all balances out, especially with the amount of revenue Harper's name alone will generate in Philly. Like I said, I have 0 problem betting on Harper to have a few MVP-caliber seasons, especially with that free agency pressure finally off his mind for the rest of his career.

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7 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

 

Honestly, I think your annoyance or frustration is not directed at these players and maybe the system that gives teams control of elite years at ridiculously discounted prices. And handicaps players from getting theirs while they wise up and no longer pay for downsides. You covered a lot in your post. Too much to respond to in micro and just hitting the macro topics. 

I honestly think you’re correct.  That was a pretty long winded post (apologies).  I fully believe in capitalism and if these guys get paid, they get paid, so be it.  But there’s often little caveats tied into it for fans, your tickets go up a bit, your beer prices go up a bit, your parking goes up a bit.  So it can affect the average fan, which doesn’t really affect me because I’m in Seattle and we aren’t seeing the playoffs until after I’m dead and gone.  

But I feel like we’re reaching an economic phase in sports where it’s basicallly next man up.  NFL, Matthew Stafford comes up, he’s never done s*** in playoffs in career.  Becomes highest paid player.  That resets bar, now when next cast come up they’re highest paid, and so on and so on.  Almost doesn’t matter what you did anymore to get paid.  I just worry about long term health of sports economics operating this way.  Maybe I’m overthinking it.  

But regardless, I’m off my soap box.  I think this is a smart move for Phillies in short term.  They should have a window here to compete for awhile.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I honestly think you’re correct.  That was a pretty long winded post (apologies).  I fully believe in capitalism and if these guys get paid, they get paid, so be it.  But there’s often little caveats tied into it for fans, your tickets go up a bit, your beer prices go up a bit, your parking goes up a bit.  So it can affect the average fan, which doesn’t really affect me because I’m in Seattle and we aren’t seeing the playoffs until after I’m dead and gone.  

But I feel like we’re reaching an economic phase in sports where it’s badically next man up.  NFL, Matthew Stafford comes up, he’s never done s*** in playoffs in career.  Becomes highest paid player.  That resets bar, now when next cast come up they’re highest paid, and so on and so on.  Almost doesn’t matter what you did anymore to get paid.  I just worry about long term health of sports economics operating this way.  Maybe I’m overthinking it.  

But regardless, I’m off my soap box.  I think this is a smart move for Phillies in short term.  They should have a window here to compete for awhile.  

 

The owners were getting hammered by everyone for not ponying up for Bryce and Manny. I saw it as teams trying to reign in the next crazy deal. 

I haven’t seen their books, but I don’t think you have the money to buy a team because you gave all your profits back to your employees. 

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1 hour ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Boras on no opt-outs in Harper's 13/$330M deal: "He wanted to go to one city, stay there, build a brand and identity and recruit players. He wants to tell players: come play with me. He knows it will help winning more if he's with one team the whole time."

 

Lmao

NBA player wannabe

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19 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Lmao

NBA player wannabe

Oh yeah because LeBron is still in Miami building his brand... oh back to Cleveland... oh no, LA now?

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2 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Oh yeah because LeBron is still in Miami building his brand... oh back to Cleveland... oh no, LA now?

Ya Lebron took 3 year deals with opt outs all the time... Harper prepared to spend 13 years. Good post!

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18 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Oh yeah because LeBron is still in Miami building his brand... oh back to Cleveland... oh no, LA now?

 

I was taking more about the "recruiting" players comment.

 

Whose he gonna recruit?

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1 minute ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I was taking more about the "recruiting" players comment.

 

Whose he gonna recruit?

 

Mike Trout. To his hometown area. 

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2 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I was taking more about the "recruiting" players comment.

 

Whose he gonna recruit?

 

He already recruited Realmuto ;)

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9 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I was taking more about the "recruiting" players comment.

 

Whose he gonna recruit?

A free agent here or there... with the current roster hopefully a starting pitcher. 

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16 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I was taking more about the "recruiting" players comment.

 

Whose he gonna recruit?

I think part of being there next 13 years tells Trout he's going to play with him through the balance of his probably 10 year deal he will get.

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5 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

A free agent here or there... with the current roster hopefully a starting pitcher. 

At this point why wouldn't Dallas or Kimbrel if they're forced to take a one year deal wouldn't want to come to the Phils?

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30 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

At this point why wouldn't Dallas or Kimbrel if they're forced to take a one year deal wouldn't want to come to the Phils?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they nail down one of em, but just to play devil's advocate: a relatively unfriendly pitchers' park and 3/4 division rivals with really solid lineups.

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Guess the discount on Harper is over. Picked him up with the third pick in the 3rd round in a draft yesterday. That threat of the Giants had people shook. 

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19 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they nail down one of em, but just to play devil's advocate: a relatively unfriendly pitchers' park and 3/4 division rivals with really solid lineups.

Still pitching in NL would be nice move for Dallas to re-establish value... and Kimbrel anything is better than pitching in the AL East.

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18 minutes ago, SkinsNoles21 said:

Guess the discount on Harper is over. Picked him up with the third pick in the 3rd round in a draft yesterday. That threat of the Giants had people shook. 

I hope that's an 8 team league... because 10-12 that would be just ridiculous. 

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10 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Still pitching in NL would be nice move for Dallas to re-establish value... and Kimbrel anything is better than pitching in the AL East.

 

Yeah I guess Kimbrel has nowhere to go but up. Keuchel though I'm not as sure about. The AL West isn't exactly a powerhouse, the NL East is looking stronger by the day, and while the Sox/Yankees still are likely leading most power rankings the NL is getting relatively stronger.  

You're probably right though, it would be a solid landing spot for him and makes a lot of sense for the Phillies too.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

A free agent here or there... with the current roster hopefully a starting pitcher. 

 

I don't see it. It's not like the NBA where's the a salary cap. Baseball FA's will just go to the highest bidder.

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13 years 330 M

Based on 550 ABs per season Bryce will make $46,000 per at bat ... 

This is crazy ... 

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3 hours ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

Keep telling yourself that Bryce went to Philly to settle down, start a family, make the Phillies great, and live happily ever after. 

This was a cash grab. A la ARod in Texas. He never wanted to play there. They gave him the first mega deal and he forced a trade to NY. 

 

Absolutely right.

 

 

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Just now, shakestreet said:

13 years 330 M

Based on 550 ABs per season Bryce will make $46,000 per at bat ... 

This is crazy ... 

Pure insanity.

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3 hours ago, taobball said:

These arguments are hilarious. Guy choses a team pushing to compete, in a field to generate more power, on a deal that locks him up for lifetime, that does not include a single opt-out.... but it's still all about the money. 

 

Machado's deal is way more of a money grubbing looking contract that Harper's. If you don't see that, I think you miss how AAV and Opt-Outs work. 

 

 

They are both money grubbing players.. 

 

3 hours ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

Keep telling yourself that Bryce went to Philly to settle down, start a family, make the Phillies great, and live happily ever after. 

This was a cash grab. A la ARod in Texas. He never wanted to play there. They gave him the first mega deal and he forced a trade to NY. 

 

 

 

You are damn right ... This sign is all about money. Bryce doesn’t care what city he calls home, all he cares about is his paycheck. Congrats to Bryce for hitting jackpot 

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