AnonymousRob

Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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I'm in an OPS league and doubt he'll be available for me at the 9th pick when it's my turn. If he is, I'll scoop him without a second thought.

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I'm expecting some dissenting opinions here, but does anyone else think Harper's now...overrated? I think the most positive thing about Harper going to Philly is that he's not going to SF. Despite Philly being a hitter's park, Nationals Park was one of the top last year as well and the lineups are vastly similar (if not leaning a bit towards the Nationals). In a vacuum I'm taking Trea, Rendon, Soto, Robles and Eaton over Hoskins, Cutch, Franco, Hernandez and Segura every day of the week. I wouldn't have drafted Harper in the first round last year and I'm not ready to do so now either. In addition to all of the above, he's injury-prone, there may be some adjustments to the new park and dude just got paid!

TL;DR: There hasn't really been a bump...more like a lack of a fall.  

Edited by Jyeatbvg
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14 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Despite Philly being a hitter's park, Nationals Park was one of the top last year as well

This thread is moving fast, so maybe you missed this from yesterday:

21 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Not when you break it out for LHB -- FantasyPros has Citizens Bank at 1.229 (well above average), Nationals Park at 0.948 (slightly below average.)  Of course park factors vary by who's calculating them, they change year-to-year based on climate patterns, are barely stable enough to be descriptive for a season-long sample, and certainly aren't predictive...  But HEY LOOK AT THEM TATERS!

That's no small difference.

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12 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

I'm expecting some dissenting opinions here, but does anyone else think Harper's now...overrated? I think the most positive thing about Harper going to Philly is that he's not going to SF. Despite Philly being a hitter's park, Nationals Park was one of the top last year as well and the lineups are vastly similar (if not leaning a bit towards the Nationals). In a vacuum I'm taking Trea, Rendon, Soto, Robles and Eaton over Hoskins, Cutch, Franco, Hernandez and Segura every day of the week. I wouldn't have drafted Harper in the first round last year and I'm not ready to do so now either. In addition to all of the above, he's injury-prone, there may be some adjustments to the new park and dude just got paid!

TL;DR: There hasn't really been a bump...more like a lack of a fall.  

 

Realmuto is a big factor you're leaving out of the line-up for one. And Harper had 100 / 100 last year. The park factor is the biggest proponent of boosting value because you're keeping everything else the same and making it easier for him to hit more HRs. And more HRs in the same line-up means he's more likely to equate to more RBIs. 

 

So no, I don't think it's unreasonable to take 34/100 in Washington, put it in Philly, and come to 39/120, because it's like Slatykamora said either in this thread or in the Philly thread, line-up potential is exponential, and with this many good hitters in a great park, Bryce has potential to drive in a hell of a lot of runs. 

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22 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

I'm expecting some dissenting opinions here, but does anyone else think Harper's now...overrated? I think the most positive thing about Harper going to Philly is that he's not going to SF. Despite Philly being a hitter's park, Nationals Park was one of the top last year as well and the lineups are vastly similar (if not leaning a bit towards the Nationals). In a vacuum I'm taking Trea, Rendon, Soto, Robles and Eaton over Hoskins, Cutch, Franco, Hernandez and Segura every day of the week. I wouldn't have drafted Harper in the first round last year and I'm not ready to do so now either. In addition to all of the above, he's injury-prone, there may be some adjustments to the new park and dude just got paid!

TL;DR: There hasn't really been a bump...more like a lack of a fall.  

Segura/Trea have similar OBP and at the end of the day that is what matters most to me for Bryce. As a fantasy community we love steals, but that allows an open base for pitchers to conveniently walk Harper.  I just want the HRs to be 2 and 3 run variety instead of the solo shots. 

To really evaluate we need the lineups, but for now I think conservatively Trea/Eaton/Rendon/Soto versus Segura/Cutch/Realmuto/Hoskins is what I would expect the comparison to be. Again, need to wait to see the other name on both lineups before getting a legit comp because it might extend to include the 9 hitter or the 6 hitter. Then you factor in the ballpark changes that have been discussed. I don't think the edge is all that obvious for the players listed above for this season. The youth on the Nationals is intriguing, but for this season I think the Phillies provide an equal amount of upside as the Nationals lineup surrounding Harper. Obviously, the park upgrade for Harper will be substantial. Last thing, I don't get the sense that Harper is the kind of guy to press after this contract. It seems like he has been pressed to perform at crazy levels his entire career or at least that was the expectation. I wouldn't be surprised to see him more relaxed this season knowing all he has to do is play and not worry about anything else. 

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What a disappointing contract. 

This youth/production combination would have resulted in a $40-$50M per year, 5-7 year contract 10-15 years ago. With Harper's skills/youth he could have easily set himself up for TWO major free agent paydays at $300-$400M per contract. Now he has to settle for $330 total. Wow! The players need to strike and empower their union back to the levels it used to be in the late 20th century.

The major sports in america are skyrocketing in revenue, value, popularity, etc. especially now that sports are the only TV people really watch live anymore. I cannot believe that player's pay is going in the opposite direction. 

The NBA is probably the only exception. They are actually paying their player's escalating salaries/contracts as their league gets more popular.

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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38 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

This thread is moving fast, so maybe you missed this from yesterday:

That's no small difference.

 

37 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Realmuto is a big factor you're leaving out of the line-up for one. And Harper had 100 / 100 last year. The park factor is the biggest proponent of boosting value because you're keeping everything else the same and making it easier for him to hit more HRs. And more HRs in the same line-up means he's more likely to equate to more RBIs. 

 

So no, I don't think it's unreasonable to take 34/100 in Washington, put it in Philly, and come to 39/120, because it's like Slatykamora said either in this thread or in the Philly thread, line-up potential is exponential, and with this many good hitters in a great park, Bryce has potential to drive in a hell of a lot of runs. 

 

18 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Segura/Trea have similar OBP and at the end of the day that is what matters most to me for Bryce. As a fantasy community we love steals, but that allows an open base for pitchers to conveniently walk Harper.  I just want the HRs to be 2 and 3 run variety instead of the solo shots. 

To really evaluate we need the lineups, but for now I think conservatively Trea/Eaton/Rendon/Soto versus Segura/Cutch/Realmuto/Hoskins is what I would expect the comparison to be. Again, need to wait to see the other name on both lineups before getting a legit comp because it might extend to include the 9 hitter or the 6 hitter. Then you factor in the ballpark changes that have been discussed. I don't think the edge is all that obvious for the players listed above for this season. The youth on the Nationals is intriguing, but for this season I think the Phillies provide an equal amount of upside as the Nationals lineup surrounding Harper. Obviously, the park upgrade for Harper will be substantial. Last thing, I don't get the sense that Harper is the kind of guy to press after this contract. It seems like he has been pressed to perform at crazy levels his entire career or at least that was the expectation. I wouldn't be surprised to see him more relaxed this season knowing all he has to do is play and not worry about anything else. 

Thanks to the three of you for your responses. Tony, I did miss that info and that is indeed a substantial difference when you remove the RHB stats. I guess my response is this: Is he worthy of a Top 5 pick? Top 10 pick? Even if the various situational factors all point to Harper being in a (slightly) better situation than he was in Washington, I still have a hard time justifying a first round (we'll say Top 10) pick on him. He's generally disappointed over his career in Washington compared to the hype surrounding him coming into the league, what's to say it doesn't happen again? Last year he went 34/100 over a 159 games played. If we can guarantee another full season out of Harper in 2019 the high cost is justified, but a guarantee is far from what we have at the moment.

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6 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Is he worthy of a Top 5 pick? Top 10 pick?

His ADP, which at this point is likely based almost exclusively on drafts conducted prior to knowing where he'd land, was 16.  Let's assume some folks were betting on the come that he'd end up in Philly.  Even still, we're only talking six spots, and several the players he'd have to pass to earn a top 10 valuation are starting pitchers (good ones, but pitchers nonetheless.)  How much of a stretch is it to say that he deserves to be nudged ahead of Sale and deGrom, or Machado, who's got to be moving in the other direction with his weaker team / park context?  That gets him up to 13 without some admittedly tougher calls like Altuve, Acuna, and Bregman.  If all we're arguing about is the difference between 13 and 10 among players who all have some significant question marks, then I think we're close to a rounding error unless we speak with a lot more precision about expectations of Harper *and* the other players he's being compared to.

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37 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

What a disappointing contract. 

This youth/production combination would have resulted in a $40-$50M per year, 5-7 year contract 10-15 years ago. With Harper's skills/youth he could have easily set himself up for TWO major free agent paydays at $300-$400M per contract. Now he has to settle for $330 total. Wow! The players need to strike and empower their union back to the levels it used to be in the late 20th century.

The major sports in america are skyrocketing in revenue, value, popularity, etc. especially now that sports are the only TV people really watch live anymore. I cannot believe that player's pay is going in the opposite direction. 

The NBA is probably the only exception. They are actually paying their player's escalating salaries/contracts as their league gets more popular.

 

I see what you’re saying, but the owners are in charge here. This is them taking back power from the players on these contracts. Frankly, that’s their right. 

When players start walking away from these deals because they feel undervalued is when MLB is going to have a problem. Until then there are thousands of other guys willing to play for millions without griping about it.

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Here's another thing that I think could potentially boost Harper's value at drafts: he MASHES every year in March and April. Seriously. His career totals in March/April over 647 plate appearances is a 115/41/112/10/.309/.436/.619 line. 

 

Assuming he gets off to another monster start this season in March and April, he's going to be coming off all of the hype of his free agency (I've always found big free agent signings end up drawing some kind of boost in trade/draft value), plus a monster first month in his new park, there's a very real chance that you'll have an opportunity to sell for massive value. 

 

I know drafting to trade is a risky bet, but this one might be worth it. You could potentially set yourself up with a huge return off of a big month. If no one bites, you'll still have Harper the rest of the season, and that is still very likely a top 15 player at worst. 

Edited by adifazio27

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1 hour ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Is he worthy of a Top 5 pick? Top 10 pick? 

A lot of it has to do with your league settings, obviously. OBP replacing AVG is something I am seeing more often and that would make a huge difference. But, I think a lot of it will come down to your preference on how you want to build. I don't really get too caught up in if a player is #9 or #14 on a player rater at the end of a season. That isn't going to make or break your fantasy team. I guess I am saying he is in that 10ish range give or take a few so if he is your guy take him. 

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37 minutes ago, The 7th Beatles said:

 

 

Here comes the Babe Ruth talk 😜

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Owners will be disappointed when he doesn't live up to full expectations. ADP does not equal productions. Great player, but he's not even the best OF'er in the game, and people think he's better than Trout  lol

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10 minutes ago, lavaman said:

Owners will be disappointed when he doesn't live up to full expectations. ADP does not equal productions. Great player, but he's not even the best OF'er in the game, and people think he's better than Trout  lol

A couple years ago he was the best in the game so there’s a possibility he can be a top fantasy player. 

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I’m picking 4th in an OBP league and it might be crazy, but I’m heavily considering him in that spot over arenado. I think the park factors for lefties deserve a long look, and carries even more value than the lineup change. Some consider the lineups a push, I personally give the slight nod to philly. Either way, in OBP leagues, I think when you consider the crapshoot that picks 4-16ish offer, it wouldn’t be insane to go Bryce there. Even if he runs a little less, I think 100/36/110/10.380 OBP are pretty reasonable here. Sure he’s streaky, but with the depth of middle infield and even 3B this year, Harper might be my guy at 4. 

Edited by Motown_Magic
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1 hour ago, lavaman said:

Owners will be disappointed when he doesn't live up to full expectations. ADP does not equal productions. Great player, but he's not even the best OF'er in the game, and people think he's better than Trout  lol

 

Oh, I didn't realize his ADP was "-1". 

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1 hour ago, lavaman said:

Owners will be disappointed when he doesn't live up to full expectations. ADP does not equal productions. Great player, but he's not even the best OF'er in the game, and people think he's better than Trout  lol

lavaman take, even his name is coming in hot!

 

 

1. Nobody thinks he's better than Trout

2. Nobody think ADP guarantees production

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49 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

I’m picking 4th in an OBP league and it might be crazy, but I’m heavily considering him in that spot over arenado. I think the park factors for lefties deserve a long look, and carries even more value than the lineup change. Some consider the lineups a push, I personally give the slight nod to philly. Either way, in OBP leagues, I think when you consider the crapshoot that picks 4-16ish offer, it wouldn’t be insane to go Bryce there. Even if he runs a little less, I think 100/36/110/10.380 OBP are pretty reasonable here. Sure he’s streaky, but with the depth of middle infield and even 3B this year, Harper might be my guy at 4. 

I’d definitely go Arenado over him.  These guys taking massive deals and switching teams often have some bumps in the road.  Most recently Robinson Cano, David Price, Giancarlo Stanton (same team just biggest deal in baseball history at time) had some decline in performances after inking monster deals.  Zack Greinke another one (4.37 ERA in first year after signing the 200+ mega deal).  You don’t often see performances rise despite better surroundings.  The pressures of playing through the deal can sometimes weigh initially.  I think ultimately he’ll have a very nice season, but I’m taking Arenado over him.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’d definitely go Arenado over him.  These guys taking massive deals and switching teams often have some bumps in the road.  Most recently Robinson Cano, David Price, Giancarlo Stanton (same team just biggest deal in baseball history at time) had some decline in performances after inking monster deals.  Zack Greinke another one (4.37 ERA in first year after signing the 200+ mega deal).  You don’t often see performances rise despite better surroundings.  The pressures of playing through the deal can sometimes weigh initially.  I think ultimately he’ll have a very nice season, but I’m taking Arenado over him.  

 

I will say as one caveat, he did not leave his Division, which at least I think gives some added 2018-to-2019 consistency. 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I will say as one caveat, he did not leave his Division, which at least I think gives some added 2018-to-2019 consistency. 

I agree, league changes usually are tougher on players.  He’s an easy first rounder for me.  Just can’t pull trigger over Arenado though.  His floor in Coors, mixed with durability is tough to match.  

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Just now, Cmilne23 said:

I agree, league changes usually are tougher on players.  He’s an easy first rounder for me.  Just can’t pull trigger over Arenado though.  His floor in Coors, mixed with durability is tough to match.  

 

In a BA league the question is easy. Harper's OBPs are freaking nuts. .388 Career, .393 on his last year "down year". Has peaked at... .460? 

Like fun fact, Arenado has NEVER had a .388 OBP in his entire career. So he's never had a single season where he got on base as much as Harper has, on average, his entire career. 

Harper's also going to steal bases.

 

It's a really hard argument to make I think either side. The numbers I think clearly justify taking Harper if it's a 5x5 OBP. He's just going to beat him in OBP/SB, and I don't know that he falls short anywhere else. More safety in Arenado, but I also think i have to take Harper in an OBP. 

 

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3 hours ago, lavaman said:

Owners will be disappointed when he doesn't live up to full expectations. ADP does not equal productions. Great player, but he's not even the best OF'er in the game, and people think he's better than Trout  lol

I think you’ve been around long enough to know you don’t just get to drop crap like this without getting called on it. Literally no one thinks he’s better than Trout. We get it, you’re upset about Harper for some reason. But try using stats, not straw man arguments. It adds nothing to the conversation. 

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